Monday, April 27, 2020

Let's hope it's not just an abberation

So a while back, I suggested that the models projecting a sharp decline in deaths that should have occurred last week seemed dubious. I suggested (based on the stubbornly high numbers coming out of the greater New York Area) that the reported would remain up into the 1800-2000 range for a while longer. The actual average number reported by the CDC over the past week was just over 2000 a day. Unfortunately my gut feeling was proven to be correct.

Chances of getting this 100% correct!

The question I am posing to myself right now is whether or not we have reached the downward side of the plateau. Yesterday, all three of the main tracking sites reported numbers that were considerably lower than both what we have been seeing, and what we saw last Sunday. The average of the three sites was just under 1300.

Last Sunday we also saw a significant dip, followed by another string of numbers that broached 2000 more often than not. But the good news is that so far, today's numbers are tracking fairly close to what we saw yesterday, rather than where they went last Monday. I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers higher than 1300 (Sundays seem to track lower than other days), but I would be very surprised if we saw them skyrocket back up over 2000 again.

The other piece of good news is that the pace of new "probable deaths" has slowed, suggesting that retroactive reporting of previous deaths is no longer going to be a big factor in keeping the numbers artificially inflated. With more and more testing becoming available, the amount of people with Covid-19 symptoms that are not being tested will be reduced moving forward.

Either way, here is to hoping that we are on the downside of this thing and that all of our sacrifice and dedication to social distancing is finally paying off.

32 comments:

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

The other problem with the retroactive reporting of previous deaths is that with such high percentages of infected individuals any retroactive "search" will likely find a similar percentage of deaths that could be assigned to COVID-19.

For instance if one of those individuals was driving a car and had a fatal car crash an examination of the body would allow it to be classified under COVID-19.

This whole "scientific" effort is beyond being a farce.

Commonsense said...

Retroactive reporting made deaths totally useless as a tracking indicator.

Anonymous said...




Researchers tracking smartphone data say they recently made a disturbing discovery: For the first time since states began implementing stay-at-home orders in mid-March to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus, Americans are staying home less.

The nationwide shift during the week of April 13 was relatively slight. However, any loss of momentum, particularly when stay-in-place orders remain in effect across most of the country, has some public health experts worried about "quarantine fatigue." Any increase in travel, they say, is premature when staying home remains the most effective way to limit the spread of the virus until widespread testing and contact tracing become available.

"We saw something we hoped wasn't happening, but it's there," said Lei Zhang, lead researcher and director of the Maryland Transportation Institute at the University of Maryland. "It seems collectively we're getting a little tired. It looks like people are loosening up on their own to travel more."

Zhang said he anticipates the number of people staying home will continue to drop as some states begin allowing businesses, beaches and other public facilities to reopen. That process began last week in South Carolina and Georgia.

Public health experts say any data showing widespread public resolve or cooperation beginning to wane is noteworthy. Because this is the first U.S. pandemic in 100 years, they don't know how long people are willing to tolerate cabin fever for the greater good.


https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/Experts-worry-quarantine-fatigue-is-starting-15226487.php



you can only bullshit the public for so long before they say "fuck it" and decide to get on with their lives.

up here in NY little mussolini is already setting the table to extend the shutdown ANOTHER two weeks until June 1.



Anonymous said...

"Tyson Foods is facing a new set of challenges. In small communities around the country where we employ over 100,000 hard-working men and women, we’re being forced to shutter our doors. This means one thing – the food supply chain is vulnerable. As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain. As a result, there will be limited supply of our products available in grocery stores until we are able to reopen our facilities that are currently closed.

In addition to meat shortages, this is a serious food waste issue. Farmers across the nation simply will not have anywhere to sell their livestock to be processed, when they could have fed the nation. Millions of animals — chickens, pigs and cattle — will be depopulated because of the closure of our processing facilities.

CNN reported"

Told us so, the three socialist stooge of CHT.
Said I was wrong, stupid asphalt asses.  

Commonsense said...

Maybe it will take the shock of elites not getting their tenderloin steaks to wake them up.

Commonsense said...

Based on the furious spinning in the Washington Post today, the allegations against Biden are getting serious.

anonymous said...

Funny that the dumb fuck rat finds more evidence that supports his bias.....BWAAAAAAAA!!!! This certainly shows a different view that does not support his post!!!!!!

By
Dan Balz and
Scott Clement
April 28, 2020 at 6:30 a.m. EDT
Americans overwhelmingly support state-imposed restrictions on businesses and the size of public gatherings to slow the spread of the coronavirus. They also back a temporary halt to immigration into the country, as ordered by President Trump, to deal with the crisis, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.
The poll finds that Americans’ concerns about becoming seriously ill from the virus have not eased in the past week and also shows that Americans continue to give their governors significantly higher ratings than they offer Trump, who still draws mostly negative reviews for how he has handled the crisis.
Some governors have begun to relax shelter-at-home orders and allow certain businesses to reopen in an effort to limit the economic damage in their states, despite concerns from some scientists and local officials that those actions might cause a resurgence of the virus. But as these measures begin to take effect, support for tough limitations now in place continues to enjoy bipartisan support.
Nearly 2 in 3 Americans say the restrictions on restaurants, stores and other businesses in their states are appropriate, with another 16 percent saying they are not tight enough. Just under 2 in 10, or 17 percent, call the limits on business activity too restrictive.

About 7 in 10 (72 percent) Democrats and 6 in 10 (62 percent) Republicans say their state’s current restrictions on businesses are appropriate. Republicans are more likely to say their state is too restrictive on businesses, though fewer than 3 in 10 say this (27 percent), compared with 17 percent of independents and 8 percent of Democrats.
Even in the dozen states that have begun to loosen restrictions or that had less restrictive orders in place, a majority of residents support their state’s limitations, with 59 percent calling them appropriate, 18 percent saying they are too restrictive and 22 percent calling them not restrictive enough — the last figure being eight points higher than in the states with more stringent orders in place.

Commonsense said...

Funny that the dumb fuck rat finds more evidence that supports his bias.

Also known as the truth.

Commonsense said...

Dumbfuck Denny doesn't know the difference between say and do.

Those people who support the "lock-down" are also the ones breaking quarantine.

I don't trust polling on this because there's a great deal of "social-acceptence" in the poll's response.

In other words, people are responding with the politically correct answer instead how they really feel.

anonymous said...

Post today, the allegations against Biden are getting serious.

The trump cultist praying for his hero and losing the battle.....BWAAAAAAAA!!!! Funny, you must get a different version of the Post I get!!!!

anonymous said...

Funny....rat the dumb fuck doesn't know when he has had a 2x4 shoved up his stupid ass!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Yeah, alternate truth is all you asssholes ever got!!!!!!!

Commonsense said...

There's no arguing with gibberish.

anonymous said...

Cramps proof of things getting serious about biden....


In recent days, a 1993 call into Larry King’s CNN talk show also surfaced. In it, a woman whom Reade identified as her ­now-deceased mother called to report unspecified “problems” her daughter was having with her employer, whom she called “a prominent senator.” The caller said her daughter did not want to go public with her account “out of respect for” the unnamed senator.
Neither LaCasse nor Sanchez responded to messages left by The Washington Post on Monday. Read made the harassment accusation last year, and she recently offered details of what she said was a sexual assault in a hallway somewhere on Capitol Hill.

Wow....her dead mother may have corroborated something!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!! Knee slapping hysterical!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Funny that the dumb fuck rat finds more evidence that supports his bias.....BWAAAAAAAA!!!! This certainly shows a different view that does not support his post!!!!!!


fuckstick,

i posted a story reporting the DATA that is showing that people are NOT staying locked down at home as much:

Researchers tracking smartphone data say they recently made a disturbing discovery: For the first time since states began implementing stay-at-home orders in mid-March to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus, Americans are staying home less.

and you?

you post a fucking poll.

look son, i know you're an imbecile who cannot discern between data derived from a study and a fucking poll.

no sense in straining yourself to highlight your dumbfuckery. it's a known quantity.

anonymous said...

Dr Cramps offers his whole defense to everything......gibberish!!!!!! Sad the GED cultist can't provide shit other than opinions......LOLOLOLOLOL

Commonsense said...

Wow....her dead mother may have corroborated something!!!

Not just the mother, a next door neighbor who is still very much alive.

anonymous said...


i posted a story reporting the DATA that is showing that people are NO

WHICH PROVED TRUMP WAS AT THE BOTTOM OF IT WITH HIS STUPID TWEETS AND R GOV'S FOLLOWING SUITS.....Once again you dumb ass you really should read shit before looking stupid again!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!


They say they're not surprised, however, that a slide occurred in a week that saw the first highly publicized challenges to such orders by protesters and President Donald Trump, who tweeted his support to "liberate" states from shutdowns. The White House also released federal guidelines that week for states seeking to reopen their economies. And a growing number of governors, including in Texas, Minnesota and Vermont, set dates for when they planned to gradually lift restrictions.

anonymous said...

Not just the mother, a next door neighbor who is still very much alive.


BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! 15 year old recollection!!!!!!!!!

Commonsense said...

A case of well-intention public policy backfiring spectacularly.

The Hospital Crisis of Our Making

We had to destroy the hospitals to save them.

You could be forgiven for thinking that’s the upshot of the coronavirus lockdowns that have suspended elective surgeries and generally discouraged people from going to hospitals.

Many hospitals are getting pushed near, or over, the financial edge. At a time when we feared that hospitals would get overwhelmed by a surge of patients, they have instead been emptied out. At a time when we thought medical personnel would be at a premium, they are instead being idled all over the country.

We are experiencing an epidemic that bizarrely — and in part because of the choices of policymakers — has created a surfeit of hospital beds and an excess of doctors and nurses.

Not everywhere, of course. Hospitals in New York City and parts of New Jersey have been tested to their limits. But throughout much of the country, hospitals are drastically underutilized, both because states have banned elective procedures and people have been too afraid to show up.

anonymous said...

Funny.....rats epiphany comes from his favorite publication BWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!

Experts worry 'quarantine fatigue' is starting
Katherine Shaver, The Washington Post Published 7:49 pm EDT, Saturday, April 25, 2020


The trump slurping cultist caught again!!!!!!!!!

Commonsense said...

Denny is upset that people exercised their constitutional rights.

anonymous said...


A case of well-intention public policy backfiring spectacularly.

The Hospital Crisis of Our Making



WHO THE FUCK CARES WHAT THE NATIONAL REVIEW OPINES!!!!!!!!! TOTAL BULLSHIT!!!!!!

anonymous said...

Blogger Commonsense said...
Denny is upset that people exercised their constitutional rights.


BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! THANX FOR YOUR IDIOT ATTEMPT AT SPEAKING FOR ME......I fully support going to the beach which is the core of the article and if you had read the article you will discover that it really is a BS study....but facts and you are like oil and water.....dumb fuck!!!!

Anonymous said...

Funny.....rats epiphany comes from his favorite publication BWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!


the stamford advocate?

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/Experts-worry-quarantine-fatigue-is-starting-15226487.php

LOL.

you fucking imbecile

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Mark Dice
@MarkDice

YouTube just censored Dr. Erickson's press conference about the coronavirus.

In his professional opinion, he said it's time to re-open most parts of the country.

It was here, on a local news channel from Bakersfield: https://youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be…


Chip Roy
@chiproytx

This is outrageous. Hey @YouTube - why was this pulled down? Whether you agree with him or not, it’s somehow a problem that this doctor dared to challenge the conventional wisdom that lockdown is “good” for our health?
---
luckily someone has created a bypass site to avoid big tech censorship from youtube. One thing COVID-19 has made crystal clear is big tech censorship, hopefully Trump and the Republicans will address this on all the major tech platforms.

https://newtube.app/user/anthony/GlkxUvo

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson

Incredible op-ed piece from the chairman of the emergency medicine department at St. Barnabas Hospital in the Bronx, calling for the end of the lockdowns even in New York. (And why is @nypost the only place running these?)

https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

anonymous said...

the stamford advocate?


I POSTED THE ACTUAL SOURCE AT 7:13 ASS HOLE.....TRY TO KEEP UP!!~!!!!!!!! That is hilarious coming from you since you think that publication is nothing but fake and here you are defending twice!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!

anonymous said...

(And why is @nypost the only place running these?)



Because the Post is just a stupid as fucked up daddy!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Which one of you has the Fat Bottom girl Denise so upset?

anonymous said...

And the goat fucking idiot keeps shitting his brains and will soon be down to nothing???? What school system is the goat fucker an example of abject failure???? BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Commonsense said...

WHO THE FUCK CARES WHAT THE NATIONAL REVIEW OPINES!!!!!!!!! TOTAL BULLSHIT!!!!!!

You can tell that to the doctors and nurses who were laid off.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Porn star Stormy Daniels now says Trump affair never happened

An adult film star who previously alleged an extramarital affair with Donald Trump now says in a statement the affair never happened.

A lawyer for porn actress Stormy Daniels confirmed his client’s statement Tuesday. Daniels’ real name is Stephanie Clifford.

Clifford has been on a publicity tour in recent weeks amid news of the alleged 2006 tryst with the president. She was scheduled to appear Tuesday on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” Her publicist hasn’t answered questions about the statement.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/30/stormy-daniels-porn-star-says-trump-affair-never-h/

lo iq used to care what the National Review "opines"

ROFLMFAO !!!