Saturday, April 25, 2020

Some CDC numbers...

Liberals are excused from reading this as we know they hate math!

So the CDC is tracking a variety of numbers, including the age of those affected. Since it has not been widely publicized (if not completely ignored) I will shed some light on the numbers as they currently exist. The actual final numbers are going to be 99% actual and about 1% approximate as the age groups are tracked slightly differently and they are one day apart.

  •  <  18  - 17367 cases and 31 deaths (reported death rate 0.18%)
  • 18-44  - 320,974 cases and 1381 deaths (reported death rate of 0.43%)
  • 45-64  - 324,668 cases and 8907 deaths  (reported death rate of 2.7%)
  • 65-75  -  94,001  cases and 10608 deaths (reported death rate of 11.3%)
  •  > 75   -  108,575 cases and 27889 deaths (reported death rate of 25.7%)
  • Total  -   865,585 cases and 48816 deaths (reported death rate of 5.6%)

These numbers are assuming that there are actually only 865,585 cases as reported by the CDC. This a simple measure of dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases to produce a death rate.

But the reality is that every random sampling has shown that at there we have somewhere between 13-45 million people who have been infected by the Covid-19, rather than the 868,585 that has currently been reported to the CDC.

If we take these estimates we are looking at these numbers for a death rate:

  •  <  18  -  Actual death rate between 0.004 to 0.01%
  • 18-44  -  Actual death rate between 0.008 to 0.02%
  • 45-64  -  Actual death rate between 0.05 to 0.18%
  • 65-75  -  Actual death rate between 0.21 to 0.75%
  •  > 75   -  Actual death rate between 0.49 to 1.71%
  • Total  -   Actual death rate between 0.11 to 0.38%

Now, since the total deaths is a real number that will continue to go up and the total cases is a calculated number which would likely remain the same, we know that these rates will go up over time and depending on the final death count, could be higher by double or so. But even assuming the death toll would double and the actual cases are closer to 13 million than 45 million, you still end up with numbers that look sort of like this:

  •  <  18  -  Actual death rate 0.02%
  • 18-44  -  Actual death rate 0.04%
  • 45-64  -  Actual death rate 0.36%
  • 65-75  -  Actual death rate  1.5%
  •  > 75   -  Actual death rate 3.42%
  • Total  -   Actual death rate 0.76% 

This is quite literally what I would argue is pretty much worse case scenario for overall death rates. As you can see, even when imagining the worst case scenario, the rates are considerably lower than even the seasonal flu (0.1%) for everyone under the age of 45. The numbers would be about three-four times that of the average flu for those between 45-64. Only those who are over the age of sixty five are looking at the sort of death rates that were originally speculated regarding Covid-19.

So the question goes back to our response to this virus. Is it really the contention of our country's leadership that we cannot figure out a way to protect those who are most in danger, without having to trample on those who are not vulnerable to this virus? Seems like this is either an extremely lazy approach, a wildly misinformed approach, or a highly politicized approach. 

What I can assure you is that it's the wrong approach.

3 comments:

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...


Pretty obvious that for people not getting social security and with no underlying conditions they need to get back to work. The sooner the better.

This may not be politically easy to do but will end up being done when a critical mass of people understand this. And if data continues to suggest this. Young people definitely understand this. Young being under 45. Under 65 probably also understand this.

Vulnerable people will probably need to be given the choice of self-isolation or taking a risk before a cure is developed. Fairly easy to do if they want.

Anonymous said...

The Republicans are fighting for those that want to work, to pay their bills and prosper to do so.

James and his bitch are afraid of their own shadows.

anonymous said...

What I can assure you is that it's the wrong approach.


The only certain thing Lil Schitty is your attempted trumpian way to minimize the virus......You just don't give a shit and it shows in your valiant statistical masturbation on mortality rates....You my friend are closer to the high end than the young end....Maybe you should take your head out of your ass and quit being an apologist and just post that 86% of US think the current shut downs are correct......you want to expose yourself....please don't jeopardize others since they don't mean anything to you!!!!!