Thursday, April 16, 2020

Some empirical data from the CDC

The CDC is actually tracking the amount of deaths by several categories, one of them being age. This is one of the empirical points of data that gets washed over by anecdotal stories designed to undermine the actual scientific statistics. Anytime someone brings up the point that this is fatal mainly to old people, someone will tell you a story about the death of a high school student or a healthy person in their thirties, as if those isolated examples proves the statistics wrong.

The numbers from this chart are updated daily, but only include official statistics that include an actual death certificate. Right now, about 40% of what has been reported can be verified via a death certificate. But 40% is certainly enough of a sample to accept the conclusions.

Click to enlarge

Here is the reality:

  • approximately 91% of those who are dying are over the age of 55. 
  • approximately 8% of those who are dying are between 35-54
  • approximately 1% of those who are dying are under the age of 35
  • only 12 people under the age of 25 have been confirmed dead via certificate

So I wonder out loud how many stories about those twelve people under twenty five who have died have been passed around and around and around, in order to make people believe that this disease kills people indiscriminately regardless of age. 

The empirical truth is that this disease does not kill indiscriminately.  

To provide a good example of how this works, think about the recent uproar from the left about how a few hundred workers in South Dakota tested positive for Covid-19. The reality is that almost none of them have symptoms. They are simply being tested because they were exposed.  Based on the fact that they are working class age, the statistics provide that about one out of 500 will pass away. Most likely anyone who might pass will have pre-existing conditions that makes them more susceptible to the disease. 

But the idea that a few hundred healthy workers (most under the age of 55) will automatically lead to some sort of devastating death toll is based on the idea that people see the number of daily deaths being reported and think that it's their friends and neighbors rather than their parents, grand parents, or great grand parents. It's because they listen to the emotional anecdotal story, rather than the cold hard empirical statistics. 

50 comments:

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

approximately 1% of those who are dying are under the age of 35
only 12 people under the age of 25 have been confirmed dead via certificate


And I would ask of those under 35 how many had other underlying health conditions ?

We need to get back to work. Non-workers can continue to self-isolate if they want or need.

Anonymous said...



We need to get back to work. Non-workers can continue to self-isolate if they want or need.

exactly.

if at risk, self-isolate. if employed, get a note from your doc. we have millions on SSDI that don't belong. let's kick those parasites off and put the at-risk folks on.

i have two family members specifically at-risk. one has a severe respiratory issue, the other is 83 years old. they're ALREADY self-quarantined. and they can stay that way. the rest of us need to get busy.

Anonymous said...




fucking lying assholes:

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. tally of coronavirus cases and deaths could soon jump because federal health officials will now count illnesses that are not confirmed by lab testing.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told states Tuesday to include probable COVID-19 cases in their reports to the agency. Previously, most states reported only lab-confirmed cases and deaths.

The change hasn’t caused U.S. counts to rise much faster than they had been, but officials in some states said they were just learning about the change. Pennsylvania, for example, has begun to follow the CDC and expand its reporting, Dr. Rachel Levine, the state’s secretary of health, said in a Wednesday call with reporters.

CDC officials said Wednesday in a statement that the change would give them “a better picture of the burden of COVID-19 in the U.S.”



https://apnews.com/dea52e0a0eb179d51ac5eed99a99bf10

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Governor extends business closures as North Dakota hits new single-day high in coronavirus cases

Eight of the new cases confirmed Wednesday come from Grand Forks County, where nine workers at a manufacturing facility have tested positive for COVID-19.

BISMARCK — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum extended the mandatory closure of certain businesses Wednesday, April 15, citing the need to slow the spread of COVID-19, the illness caused by coronavirus.

Burgum's announcement means music venues, gyms, movie theaters, massage and tattoo parlors and hair and nail salons will remain closed until at least April 30. Restaurants and bars are still permitted to offer drive-thru, takeout and delivery services but cannot serve patrons in-house.

Before Wednesday's extension, the mandatory closures were due to end Monday, April 20. He noted the closures could be extended further if the number of new cases over the next two weeks does not inspire confidence.

The governor lauded residents' strong sense of personal responsibility in choosing to stay home and the state's "proactive" measures to restrict movement and close many public settings. He said even though the result so far has been a relatively low rate of new cases, the state could see a spike that overwhelms the health care system if it doesn't continue with the restrictions.


"We're on the right track because of the actions we've taken collectively, but I wanted to say again at this time we are not far enough down that track to safely lift business closures," Burgum said. "This is not about lives versus the economy. This is about lives."

Thirteen conservative North Dakota lawmakers signed a letter asking Burgum to rescind orders that mandate the closure of businesses and require returning travelers and family members of COVID-19 patients to self-quarantine. The legislators, most of whom are affiliated with the libertarian-leaning Bastiat Caucus, said the orders have "resulted in immeasurable social and economic harm" for businesses and residents.

Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Josh Boschee, D-Fargo, pointed to the massive outbreak that has happened at a Smithfield meat processing plant in Sioux Falls, S.D., as reason to keep in place measures to prevent the spread of the virus..l
__________
The article continues...

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

THE ARTICLE
https://www.inforum.com/newsmd/coronavirus/5050910-Burgum-extends-business-closures-as-North-Dakota-hits-new-single-day-high-in-coronavirus-cases

NORTH DAKOTA CORONAVIRUS CASES
https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO

"We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade.

Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit"


8:42 AM · Feb 4, 2020

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, you're doing a heckuva job

Anonymous said...




He noted the closures could be extended further if the number of new cases over the next two weeks does not inspire confidence.


interesting.

a cursory review of the US Constitution does reveal an "inspire confidence" clause anywhere within the document.

so apparently the strategery is to instill fear, and then employ the subjective measure of "confidence" to remove - or remain - the boot upon the neck of the populace.

chilling.

and this clown is a republican, so he should know better.



Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...


U.S. Probing Whether Virus Started In Chinese Lab
April 16, 2020 at 10:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 167 Comments

U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating the theory that the novel coronavirus behind the global pandemic originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a Wuhan wet market, CNN reports.

The theory has been pushed by supporters of President Trump, including some congressional Republicans who are eager to deflect criticisms of his handling of the pandemic that has now claimed the lives of more than 30,000 Americans.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Elon Musk
@elonmusk

What I find most surprising is that CNN still exists

Careful Elon, China won't like you saying that.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...



still mindlessly defending the WHO and China and probably not even realizing it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

and this clown is a republican, so he should know better.

He's a Republican governor who is not needlessly going to sacrifice his people to Trumpian dogma.

"This is not about lives versus the economy. This is about lives."

Anonymous said...



A day after President Donald Trump said he was putting a hold on U.S. funding for the World Health Organization amid the ongoing pandemic, White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx echoed the president, saying that "someone had to have known" that human transmission was happening, whether China or the WHO, and signaled many lives could have been saved it been known earlier.

"I think once this is over, we'll be able to look back and see, 'did China and the WHO say and do everything to alert the rest of the world to the nuances of this virus' -- because when it first explodes someone had to have known that there was human to human transmission," Birx told co-hosts of ABC's "The View" Wednesday.

"You really have to go back and ask yourself, why wasn't there this level of transparency when this virus exploded?" she added. "I think people would have prepared differently if they had known the level of transmissibility of this virus."



https://www.yahoo.com/gma/birx-trump-suggests-china-warned-human-human-transmission-164300166.html

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Doesn't the waterboy even realize that China has already re-opened the wet markets?

Do you honestly think they would if that was the source of the virus ??

Are you really so clueless and just carry water for political_lire, Goddard and China ???


Anonymous said...



The theory has been pushed by supporters of President Trump, including some congressional Republicans who are eager to deflect criticisms of his handling of the pandemic that has now claimed the lives of more than 30,000 Americans.


this is complete subjective bullshit with no basis in fact, and serves as another reminder that goddard, and his dutiful water carrier the pederast, are lying assholes who are completely full of shit.

Myballs said...

Small business loan program is out of money. Voters across America are asking Pelosi and Schumer why they blocked more funding of it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Thanks to Rat for this link:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/birx-trump-suggests-china-warned-human-human-transmission-164300166.html

I just watched the video. Kudos to Dr. Birx and her honest cautions.

Note how carefully she phrases this, in answer to a question about how soon we can open up the country.

She advocates great caution,
"But as the data has come in, I think we're very confident that we can actually see places that could do very well with some decreasing restrictions."
__________

Note the cautions:
SOME decreasing restrictions. In SOME places.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Author unknown

If I had wanted a check signed by Donald Trump...
I would have become a porn star

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...


"This is not about lives versus the economy. This is about lives."


yeah...

every "leader" who views this situation as a binary life vs. economy scenario is too stupid to hold any power over anyone ever.

Myballs said...

Her statement mirrors Trump's. Not all states will resume uniformly. NYC will take longer than Iowa.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

10:27 Knee slapping funny.

10:28 Not a nice thing to say about a conscientious Republican governor.

10:24 The ladies of The View trust her.
Trump, not so much.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile


While Nancy Pelosi was laughing in front of her $20,000 refrigerators, the paycheck protection program has reached it's ceiling. The woman who has spent 3 decades amassing a $100 million fortune in congress could not care less about you or your small business.

She is the SWAMP.


and she was proudly showing off her $13 per cup high-end ice cream.

let them eat cake.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr

The Democrats are really going all in on being the party of China!

Daily Caller
@DailyCaller

Sen. Chris Murphy:
"The reason that we're in the crisis that we are today is not because of anything that China did"
https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1250447215669239808

Anonymous said...



Blogger Roger Amick said...
Author unknown

If I had wanted a check signed by Donald Trump...
I would have become a porn star



author known: rrb -

donald trump only talked about grabbing her by the pussy.

rapey joe really DID grab her by the pussy. and a criminal complaint stating such is now on file with law enforcement.

time to make the left live up to their own rules.



JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Brad Parscale - Text TRUMP to 88022
@parscale

It seems Nervous Nancy Pelosi has deleted the video of herself in Chinatown on February 24 saying that fears of the coronavirus were “unwarranted in light of the precautions that are being taken here in the United States.” She doesn’t want Americans to see what she said then!

Wonder if Trump has this clip and others... you betcha

What was Nancy doing in Jan/Feb ???

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Number of sexual assault charges against Trump.
Twenty-two and counting.

Number of sexual assault charges against Biden.
One.

Number of disgusting sexist statements made by Trump.
Several, recorded.

Number of disgusting sexist statements made by Biden.
None.

Number of marital infidelities committed by Trump.
Several, and counting.

Number of marital infidelities committed by Biden.
None.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. coronavirus deaths increased by a record number for the second day in a row, rising by at least 2,371 on Wednesday to top 30,800, according to a Reuters tally, as states spared the worst of the pandemic mulled a partial lifting of restrictions on business and social life by May 1.

Anonymous said...



Number of sexual assault charges against Trump.
Twenty-two and counting.


sexual assault CHARGES? as in CRIMINAL CHARGES???

pederast - unless you produce the official criminal complaints, i'll mark this down as a LIE.

rapey joe has an official criminal complaint on the books.

all the complaints against trump are hearsay.

nice try.

rapey joe: 1

trump: 0




Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Donald Trump Sexual Misconduct Allegations - Wikipedia
Joe Biden Sexual Misconduct Allegations - Wikipedia

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Jared Polis, Colorado’s first Jewish governor, tearfully responds to GOP leader comparing stay-at-home orders to Nazism
The Denver Post
UPDATED: April 16, 2020 at 9:40 a.m.

Gov. Jared Polis grew tearful as he responded Wednesday to a top Republican official comparing stay-at-home orders to the actions of the Gestapo, the secret police of Nazi Germany and European countries under Nazi occupation during World War II.

“As a Jewish American who lost family in the Holocaust, I’m offended by any comparison to Nazism. We act to save lives — the exact opposite of the slaughter of 6 million Jews and many gypsies and Catholics and gays and lesbians and Russians and so many others,” said the governor, visibly shaken.

Polis, a Democrat elected in 2018, is Colorado’s first Jewish governor, and was the first openly gay man elected governor in any U.S. state.

On March 25, the same day Polis issued a statewide stay-at-home order that remains in effect through at least April 26, Colorado House Minority Leader Patrick Neville, (R)-Castle Rock, said on a conservative radio program that such governmental orders lead to a “Gestapo-like mentality,” as first reported by 9News.

Reached by phone Wednesday afternoon, Neville declined to apologize for his remarks, but did say he chose his words poorly.

“I should have said authoritarian, not Gestapo,” Neville said. “And I think authoritarian is still accurate.”

Neville added he and Polis “have talked numerous times since making that remark, and he never brought it up. If he’s bringing it up now it’s because he’s trying to make political hay out of something that really was nothing.”

Polis was not, in fact, the one to raise the Gestapo comment on Wednesday. He was prompted by a question from a reporter with the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel.

“We’re hearing a lot of reports around here,” the reporter said, “and I know I’ve seen some stuff going on statewide, about neighbors reporting on other neighbors for not following the orders, seeing a lot of rebellion out here against your orders, which have been called tyrannical, against local health department orders, being equated to Nazism. How do you react to that? What do you say to those people who are clearly getting frustrated with this stay-at-home order?”

After commenting on the comparison to Nazism, Polis regained his composure and added: “That being said, we know that these steps are difficult, and it’s not a contest to see what you can get away with. It’s a contest to see how well you can stay at home. By not staying at home, by having parties, by congregating, you’re not sticking it to the government. You’re not sticking it to Jared Polis. You’re sticking it to yourself, because you’re putting yourself and your loved ones in jeopardy, and you’re prolonging the economic pain and difficulties that your fellow Coloradans face.

“Now’s the time for us to act with unity, to act together, to be able to do the best that we can to stay at home except when absolutely necessary so that we can open up sooner than later, so that we can have more freedom quicker rather than later, and so that we can create a sustainable way for us to get by as a state and as a country.”

Anonymous said...



James said...
Donald Trump Sexual Misconduct Allegations - Wikipedia


excuse me pederast, but let me remind you that you said sexual assault CHARGES. not misconduct ALLEGATIONS


your words:

Blogger James said...
Number of sexual assault charges against Trump.
Twenty-two and counting.



rapey joe really did GRAB HER BY THE PUSSY. and a criminal complaint reflecting that disgusting and depraved beahvior is ON FILE with law enforcement.


rapey joe: 1

trump: 0


Anonymous said...



“As a Jewish American who lost family in the Holocaust, I’m offended by any comparison to Nazism.


except for the non-stop cries from the democrats of "TRUMP = HITLER!!!11!"

those are fine.

hypocrisy: the bedrock of liberalism. now new and improved with liberal crocodile tears.






Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Donald Trump Sexual Misconduct Allegations -- Wikipedia
Quite a long list.

Joe Biden Sexual Misconduct Allegations -- Wikipedia

The article does not exist.
Not even when you substitute Charges for Allegations

Commonsense said...

So Democrats are big on marital fidelity now right?

Commonsense said...

“As a Jewish American who lost family in the Holocaust, I’m offended by any comparison to Nazism.

Well if you don't like being called a Nazi then maybe you shouldn't act like one.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Nick Short
@PoliticalShort

Given the fact that China moved quickly to shut down travel domestically from Wuhan to the rest of China, but did not stop international flights from Wuhan, would that not show intent to spread the virus globally? If not, then what possible explanation could there be?

Sonshine Day
@SonshineDay

Replying to
@PoliticalShort
And how about infecting people at the meat plant in South Dakota? They sent folks over to meet with them and now that's purportedly where most cases in SD originated.

who to blame and how to address ???

Anonymous said...



The article does not exist.
Not even when you substitute Charges for Allegations


so it proves that you're a liar.

choose your words carefully, pederast.

Anonymous said...



Montana County Demands People Wear Government-Issued Arm Bands To Do Business

https://montanadailygazette.com/2020/04/14/montana-county-demands-people-wear-government-issued-arm-bands-to-do-business/

In what might be one of the most over-the-top and draconian responses to coronavirus yet seen in Montana, Valley County is mandating that people wear government-issued pink arm bands in under to purchase products inside of stores. The measure, enforced by the Valley County Health Department, insists that store-owners keep customers out unless they have the pink arm-bands, which denote the customer has been in the area more than 14 days and submitted to quarantine protocol.

According to the flier produced by the Valley County Health Department, out-of-towners who lack the government-issued armbands will be prohibited from stores and residents are notified to call law enforcement if they do not comply.

The health department even issued a script to warn customers to flee, saying, “You are violating our Governor’s and Valley County’s Health Officer’s orders. I am happy to shop for you with curbside delivery. I will get the items for you and bring them to your car. If you don’t cooperate, you will force me to call law enforcement.”


Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Re 1:16 No, it proves you are insane to try to compare
the numerous sexual offenses of a roundabout like Trump
to Joe Biden.

And by the way, the order talked about in your 1:34
has been rescinded. Try to keep up.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

So the Republican governor of North Dakota is "acting like a Nazi" too. We see. How interesting.

Anonymous said...

Blogger James said...
So the Republican governor of North Dakota is "acting like a Nazi" too. We see. How interesting.


it was county health dept., dumbass. not the governor.

Anonymous said...



And by the way, the order talked about in your 1:34
has been rescinded. Try to keep up.



how would you know? that hasn't been reported.

the criminal complaint stands.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

See if you can follow this, dumbass:

If a County Health Dept. Officer in Montana is "acting like a Nazi" for issuing restrictions on working, then the Republican governor of ND must be a Nazi for issuing similar restrictions.

Did that compute? Run it through your tangled brain a few more times and maybe it will

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

EVEN LINDSEY GRAHAM IS SAYING IT, Ch!

Graham Says More Testing Needed Before Restart

April 16, 2020 at 2:53 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told The View that Americans “really can’t” return to work “until we have more tests.”

Said Graham:
“I can’t really blame the president, but we are struggling with testing at a large scale. You really can’t go back to work until we have more tests.”

Anonymous said...



See if you can follow this, dumbass:

the governor is not involved, either directly or indirectly.

it was valley county health and county commissioners

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

2:18 LOL Knee slapping funny!
Let's try once more:

If you can say a County Health Department Officer in Montana is "acting like a Nazi" for issuing restrictions on working, then you must also say that the Republican governor of North Dakota must be "acting like a Nazi" too, for issuing similar restrictions.

If you can't follow the logic of that, your brain is askew.

Caliphate4vr said...

Montana County Demands People Wear Government-Issued Arm Bands To Do Business

Do they say Juden on them?

Anonymous said...


Do they say Juden on them?

hit the link for the story and scroll down. someone posted some pics of some elderly folks sporting arm tattoos from that era. that might've helped to shame the assholes who came up with this asshole idea.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The word would be "Jude" pronounced Yoodah.
Juden is plural.

I think the bands were only pink.

And the order WAS rescinded. See at the bottom of the article.