Saturday, April 18, 2020

The reality of the least affected thirty states...

So one of the things mentioned at the briefing was that there were as many as thirty states who may be within the guidelines to start a phased reopening of their economies. This doesn't mean that the Governors will be just reopening everything all at once like nothing ever happened. But it does mean that a majority of our states have areas identified that can safely see a partial opening back up of their economies.


To put this into perspective, we need to look at the numbers:

  • The thirty states in question account for about 6% of the actual reported deaths nationally
  • This equals out to less than 2200 deaths in all 30 states combined
  • Out of those deaths, approximately 1700 of them are over the age of 65 and nearly 2000 of them are 55 and older
  • That means that in those 30 states combined, less than 500 working age people have died of Covid-19 since the outbreak began
  • Of those 500, only about 200 under the age of 55 have died in those 30 states combined
  • Many people in these rural red states live in counties that have yet to report even a single case, much less a death

Now I want you to put yourself in their shoes for a second. You are not seeing anyone around you even getting sick, much less dying. You might have heard about one or two people, but nothing that would cause you any great alarm.

But you are currently not allowed to work, make money, pay your bills, and you may even be struggling to buy groceries. You might be running through your retirement, you might be worried about losing your house, your car, or the possibility of filing bankruptcy.

That assumes that you even have a job to go back to, as many are worried that the longer they go without an economy, the lower the chances is that the company or business they work for will even be there when this is over. 

All this is happening not because anyone around you is dying, but because people in coastal population centers are getting sick and dying. So while you may feel for what is happening in New York, New Jersey, or Michigan, it is simply not happening to you or the people around you.

Moreover if you happen to live in a state with a Democratic Governor (like Minnesota), the shut down is even more draconian than most of your neighbors. This is being done in spite of obvious evidence that the vast majority of your state's death are occurring in nursing homes and assisted living communities, and in spite of your Governor's own research showing that a more moderate plan to contain the spread would have been just as successful as the complete shut-down you are being put through. 

But what is possibly the most irritating portion of all of this is that the calls to shut down your community are largely coming from other areas of the country and they seem to be politically motivated. People are putting pressure on every Governor to take the same draconian measures as are being used in places of high outbreak. When someone refuses (such as several Midwestern state Governors) every reported case in those states is being escalated nationally as if it the personal responsibility of that Governor. 

Time to respect that this is not just a country of and for the coastal population centers. There is a vast country where states like Texas are the size of France and it takes longer to drive from one coast to another than it does to drive across Europe. There is no reason why every state has to follow the same path, just because it makes certain people feel better. 

Not when people's lives are not really in danger, but their livelihoods are.
 

39 comments:

anonymous said...

The thirty states in question account for about 6% of the actual reported deaths nationally

So dumb fucking idiot Lil Schitty thinks 6% is an acceptable death rate to open things up again....!!!!!! No wonder why you are an atheist , you don't give a shit about anything but money and your own comfort!!!!! Yeah sport.....brilliant!!!!

anonymous said...

Our idiot in chief will now be responsible for everything as he tries to blame Gov''s for his lack of leadership!!!


Trump foments resistance to Democratic-imposed shutdowns

GOP governors may be the president’s biggest obstacle in his push for a quick reopening parts of the country where the coronavirus outbreak has been more limited.
By Isaac Stanley-Becker, Toluse Olorunnipa and Seung Min Kim
Rallies against stay-at-home orders grow as Trump sides with protesters
Groups demonstrated in at least six states this week, with protests planned in four more.
By Toluse Olorunnipa, Shawn Boburg and Arelis R. Hernández
GOP’s growing ‘open it up’ caucus urges fewer virus restrictions

anonymous said...

Funny.....trump also sided with the Neo Nazi's in Va.....why does he pick the BS side with all his slurpers swallowing?????

anonymous said...

With trumps propensity for lying....I wonder who Lil Schitty will believe....trump and his reopening of 30 states or the scientists and doctors who post this????? Sad, but I predict Lil schitty to fellate trump again!!!!!!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

An average of 146,000 people per day have been tested for the coronavirus nationally so far this month, according to the COVID Tracking Project, which on Friday reported 3.6 million total tests across the country. To reopen the United States by mid-May, the number of daily tests performed between now and then should be 500,000 to 700,000, according to the Harvard estimates.

That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according to the researchers. About 20 percent of those tested so far were positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high.

Commonsense said...

Denny obviously can read. That's 6% of the reported deaths for the entire country, As as less than that for hospitalizations.

That's the compelling case for reopening these states. The risk of resurgence is extremely low and it heavily outweighed by the the certainty of economic destruction and the damage to the health and welfare of the people affected.

anonymous said...

And for the asshole cultist that values fertilized eggs over the living breathing human....you really are fucked up!!!! 6% is obviously a number you can live with....sad for such a right to life asshole like you!!!!!

Anonymous said...

The Lousy Democrats Pelosi/Schumer are not taking hostages , They are executing Mom & Pop small businesses.

Commonsense said...

Well Denny either you're generally stupid or deliberately obtuse about that 6% figure. It's 6% of 37,157 death attributed to the virus. That works out to 2,231 deaths over 30 states which averages to 74 deaths per state.

As tragic as it is do you really want to shut down a 10 trillion dollar economy over 74 deaths per state. If you do, I guarantee you more will die of depression, drug overdose and domestic violence than will die of the coronavirus.

You idiots never see the consequences of the other side of the decision.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Trump Leads Pro-Plague States to a COVID Civil War
April 17, 2020 at 10:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

Rick Wilson:
“Donald Trump fired the first shots in the COVID Civil War this week, a modern-day Jefferson Davis of the Pro-Plague States of America sending his opening salvo from Fort Twitter at Democratic governors who dared to question if it wasn’t just a wee bit early to end the stay-at-home orders in states still far to the left of the peak.”

“He started the week with claims of ‘total authority’ and then cried about a supposed mutiny by mouthy state leaders. By Friday, he was up to calls to ‘liberate’ states.

“Who does he want people to rise up against, exactly:

People who don’t want to die?

People who don’t want protesters spreading a deadly disease that’s already killed 34,000 Americans?

Governors who swore an oath to serve their states and protect their citizens?

Science?

Medicine?”
_________________

And I would add:

Dr. Birce?

Dr. Fauci?

Commonsense said...

Rick Wilson, really James?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

He is a Republican who once served with Dick Cheney but has now come to his senses.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Testing Needs to TRIPLE Before U.S. Can Reopen
April 18, 2020 at 8:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

“As some governors consider easing social distancing restrictions, new estimates by researchers at Harvard University suggest that the United States cannot safely reopen unless it conducts more than three times the number of coronavirus tests it is currently administering over the next month,” the New York Times reports.

“That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according to the researchers.”
_________

Washington Post:
“With the number of the covid-19 tests hovering at an average of 146,000 a day, businesses leaders and state officials are warning the Trump administration that they cannot safely reopen the economy without radically increasing the number of available tests — perhaps into the millions a day — and that won’t happen without a greater coordinating role by the federal government.”
___________
I think Drs. Birx and Fauci would agree.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Note that "business leaders and state officials" are warning the Trump administration of that.

Commonsense said...

He is a Republican who once served with Dick Cheney but has now come to his senses.

He's an asshole hack who will never be hired by another GOP candidate. That's why he hangs out at CNN.

Anonymous said...

JamesBraunDead.

Always so dark and thoughts of glee filled death.

I feel profoundly sorry for you and all around you.

Commonsense said...

“As some governors consider easing social distancing restrictions, new estimates by researchers at Harvard University suggest that the United States cannot safely reopen unless it conducts more than three times the number of coronavirus tests it is currently administering over the next month,” the New York Times reports.

Not going to happen because it's incredibly unrealistic. You would have to consume all the test kits being produced for the world and take 5 years to get all the testing done.

There will never be enough testing for some people. And as Dr Brix said; "Just because you tested negative today doesn't mean you won't get the virus tomorrow.

And testing is not the only way to monitor the disease. The CDC tracks emergency visits of people presenting flu like systems. They are keeping this system throughout the summer. So if they see a spike somewhere that's a big red flag the virus is resurgent.

C.H. Truth said...

So dumb fucking idiot Lil Schitty thinks 6% is an acceptable death rate

It's not a 6% death rate numb nuts..

In Wyoming for example, the death rate is 0.0003% for the population as a whole...

In South Dakota and North Dakota combined the death rate is literally 0.00% for people under 50... as in not a single person under the age of 50 has died in either state.


Where the hell do you get a 6% death rate?

C.H. Truth said...

The Reverend (and liberals as a whole)...

Obviously have no sympathy for people who are losing everything in areas of the country that are simply not affected by the virus to any dangerous degree...

They simply play politics with people's livelihoods...

Pretty much with lies and innuendos at this point.

anonymous said...


Not going to happen because it's incredibly unrealistic.


Dr Cramps opines out his ass again....What do you base that opinion on?????? Suggest you gather your cultists and celebrate your menial life as thousands of americans die because you think testing can't be done!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!

C.H. Truth said...

Oh and even here in Minnesota, where we are in complete and total lock down and people are being arrested and fined $3000 for leaving the house without what the State believes is a valid reason...


Nobody under the age of 56 has passed away from Covid-19 in Minnesota. The median age of death has been 85.


That means that according to pure statistics about 90% of our workforce has zero chance of dying from Covid-19.

anonymous said...

The great floriduh experiment begins,,,,,,sure hope this does not start another spike in cases....as Dr. Cramps hopes and prays for......


People flocked to a reopened beach in Jacksonville, Florida, on Friday afternoon after officials partially lifted restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

CNN correspondent Randi Kaye, who was reporting from the scene, described it as “a mad dash here for the ocean” on Friday’s broadcast of “Anderson Cooper 360.”

“Once police gave the all-clear, all the people who had been lined up in the streets waiting to get to the beach when they opened today at 5 p.m., they just flooded the area,” said Kaye.

“They were biking, they were running, they were swimming, surfing, they were fishing some of them, a lot of people brought their dogs,” she continued. “It was as if they had been cooped up for so long, for years. That’s how they were behaving when really it had only been about a month because they first closed this beach on March 20.”

Kaye said there “wasn’t a whole lot of” social distancing going on, with some groups set up on the sand with beach coolers and other people sunbathing.

A surfer interviewed by CNN said they would not be surprised if the easing of restrictions did not last very long, given the number of people who’d arrived.

Another beachgoer noted there were “so many people standing around, everyone’s so close together.”

Anonymous said...



That means that according to pure statistics about 90% of our workforce has zero chance of dying from Covid-19.

and this is exactly why those at risk need to stay self-quarantined and the rest of us need to be allowed to return to work.



btw cold, i thought it was a nice gesture for you to feature a picture of the alky's residence in the thread below.



anonymous said...

A list of trump fails that Dr Cramps and Lil Schitty accept!!!!!!


https://www.yahoo.com/news/tracking-trumps-promises-responding-virus-121941618.html

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Anybody, such as the lying deranged POS "pastor" and waterboy who thinks CNN's Rick James is a credible source is beyond reasoning with.

Rick Wilson, who called for Melania Trump to be infected with Coronavirus.

Who Don Lemon and CNN had to apologize for and Lemon said he "misheard" what Wilson was saying when he uncontrollably laughed at Trump supporters.

A fucking idiot

And a source for the "pastor's" Lord and GODdard's political_lire.

Worship him elsewhere.

*spit*

Anonymous said...




Land O' Lakes drops image of Elizabeth Warren from their packaging after nearly 100 years


https://www.fox5ny.com/news/land-o-lakes-drops-racist-native-american-image-after-nearly-100-years

anonymous said...

and the rest of us need to be allowed to return to work.



Please you fucking moron....get out there and work and get exposed to the many who are carriers.....and it will certainly thin the herd of idiots like you!!!!!!! You must be one of the 50% who haven't saved a months worth of money to live on....NOW THAT IS HILARIOUS!!!!!

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Nicole Saphier, MD
@NBSaphierMD


As unemployment approaches 20%, each 1% rise can result in 3.3% spike in drug OD/ 1% increase in suicides (National Bureau of Economic Research.) If unemployment hits 32%, ~77,000 Americans may die as a result. Will economic fallout mortality be greater than the virus itself?

and all the pain and suffering to the hundreds of millions who do not die

just in America.

This is making the world a less safe place.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

TO F'nDaddy:

I am willing to admit that Republican Rick Wilson, with his longtime total dislike for Trump, is not a very good source for reasonable, objective commentary.

So I herewith withdraw him from serious consideration, and instead invite all readers who are interested in well argued, intelligent, and reasonable arguments to go to Ch's "Less than 24 Hours Later!" thread and there
read ALL the exchanges between Ch and me, MUCH of which expresses MY OWN OPINIONS -- everything I replied to him yesterday and this morning.

There Ch greatly helped me in showing himself up as the lying, distorting, pompous, Trump worshiping, self-contradicting, unprincipled political hack that he is.

Enjoy!

--Rev. Jim Boswell, Normal, Illinois

Anonymous said...

Look how fragile and afraid the Three Socialist Stooges of CHT are.

Like their life matters.

Anonymous said...

Socialism at work for Speaker Pelosi.
$24,000 Frig.
$2,400 in Ice Cream and chocolates.

Remember when the Democrats lost their minds when Presidential. Trump has two scoops of Ice Cream

Anonymous said...

Who Ran on this?

"More than eight-in-ten American adults call mass migration at least a “threat” to the United States, a survey finds.

The latest Pew Research Center survey revealsthat the overwhelming majority of Americans see the mass migration of people from one country to another as a threat in the midst of the Chinese coronavirus crisis."

Commonsense said...

Land O' Lakes drops image of Elizabeth Warren from their packaging after nearly 100 years

#MissMia will be trending on twitter. Bad move by Land O Lakes. The packaging is distinctly bland without her.

The irony is that the latest version of Mia was created by a Native America graphic artist. The first person of his ethnicity to have that job.

Commonsense said...

Blogger anonymous said...
The great floriduh experiment begins,,,,,,sure hope this does not start another spike in cases....as Dr. Cramps hopes and prays for


To Denny
From Florida Residents
Subject: Beach Reopening

Text: Fuck Off

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

James said...
TO F'nDaddy:

I am willing to admit that Republican Rick Wilson, with his longtime total dislike for Trump, is not a very good source for reasonable, objective commentary.


Than why do you waterboy carry his commentary here from GODdard's political_lire who has the same TDS ?

Or are you just a mindless TDS infected POS "pastor" ?

Well we ALL know the answer.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I only learned from you, F'n, that he called for Melania Trump to be infected, which (if true) I of course do not approve of.

You see, I can admit when I am wrong, but Ch can't do that.

Not even when it is obvious how totally wrong he is on his "Just 24 Hours Later" thread.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

If you follow politics at all you should know both CNN and Wilson are not reputable.

Yet you constantly bring posts over from a blog that uses them and other FAKE NEWS, Goddard's political_lire. Despite everyone asking you to stop.

It's on you. Especially since you lack knowledge of what you spam

Anonymous said...

JamesBrainDead is only pro life when it comes to his sorry ass.

Sick twisted freak.

Indy Voter said...

I have two main thoughts on this, and may make them in different comments.

First, you should be thankful to Governor Walz and others in Minnesota government for their role in keeping the infection rate in the state very low. Minnesota, as of Saturday, had the lowest infection rate of the 50 states on a per capita basis. And that's not from a failure to test - Minnesota is in the middle of the pack for testing per capita of the states. The fatality rate is near the low end as well - tied for 14th best.

Minnesota has done very well keeping people from being infected compared with other midwestern states. Kansas' rate per capita is 50% higher than Minnesota's. Nebraska is 60% higher. North Dakota is 75% higher. Wisconsin is 80% higher. Iowa is 100% higher. And all the other midwestern states have even higher infection rates (South Dakota, a very rural state, has an infection rate that is almost 350% higher than Minnesota's).

I've read through the restrictions in place in Minnesota, and they are already being relaxed, especially for outdoor activities. They're also less strict than what's in place here in New Mexico, where my county is averaging one new case a day and might be a candidate for easing of the restrictions. However, the state is dealing with the virus having taken hold in several rural areas, most notably in the northwestern corner of the state where the virus is spreading fast within the Navajo Nation. One county on the Arizona border already has 0.5% of its entire population diagnosed with the virus. There's little pressure in the state so far to rapidly ease the restrictions.

Minnesota is experiencing an outbreak in the Nobles area, centered on a meat processing plant there. You should watch how the virus spreads from that, and hope that it can be contained before it explodes like the outbreak in the Sioux Falls meat plant. The shutdown orders in place should aid greatly in doing so, but the real question will be how many plant workers get infected before the virus ceases to spread among them. If the outbreak there is as bad as the one in Sioux Falls, your state's infection rate will jump by about 40% just from that one hotspot.

Indy Voter said...

Second point -

You state that as many as 30 states may be meeting the criteria already, which is a gross exaggeration. It's very possible that there are currently no states meeting the criteria. If you're basing this argument on total cases to date (which I suspect is the case, since you cite these states have only 6% of the total cases nationwide), you're basically using state population as the principal criteria for separating the states. Many of these smaller states have significant outbreaks, including Rhode Island and Delaware, which each have infection rates that exceed the national average. Only one state among the bottom thirty in total cases has more than 10 electoral votes (Arizona, which has 11), while of the states with the 20 highest total number of cases, only four have less than 10 electoral votes (Louisiana, Maryland, Connecticut, and Colorado).

Other sorting criteria, such as known cases per capita, winds up including some very large states, so the 6% figure you cite clearly wouldn't apply. For instance, the 30 states with the lowest number of cases per capita includes both California and Texas, which have close to 50,000 confirmed cases between them (about 6.5% of the national total).

It's doubtful that any state presently has the testing capability to respond effectively to new clusters that will spring up after re-opening, which is one of the criteria. States need to be able to respond rapidly to contain new outbreaks similar to those that have occurred in Sioux Falls, or Albany, Georgia (which occurred before restrictions were in place in Georgia), the Navajo Nation, or now, in Nobles, Minnesota. Rapid, effective testing is only the first step in meeting those challenges. When states are capable of meeting those challenges, then significant easing of the restrictions would be warranted.