Sunday, May 10, 2020

Nope. Sorry. Democrats are not the party of science...

Liberals don't like "science". They like statistical modeling that tells them what they want to hear and then they call it "science". 



Take a close look at the arguments surrounding global warming. How often is there a "real" disagreement regarding the scientific concept that fossil fuels and other pollutants have a negative affect on the atmosphere, or cause damage to the ozone layer? How often to people actually get into the technical aspects of whether or not a "greenhouse effect" actually exists? The answer to both questions would be almost never.

The issues and disagreements pretty much always are in regards to statistical modeling and whether or not the climate models can or should be trusted. Make no mistake. There is a tremendously large chasm between a disagreement with the "science" of global warming and a disagreement on how much stock to take in statistical modeling. The former is a matter of actual science that can be proven (or not), the latter is little more than a guess that has turned out to be historically inaccurate to a degree that could be best described as "laughable". 

What we have seen in this whole Covid-19 crisis is more of the same. Democrats are running around exclaiming to all that will listen that Republicans in general (and Republican Governors specifically) are not listening to "science" as they make their decisions. Yet, what they are really arguing is that Republicans are not willing to be pulled around by the nose by what the most dire of statistical models are telling them. 

Make no mistake, there are more models right now than Carter has pills. We have models on case, models on deaths, hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilator usage, etc. We have some based on social distancing, some based on complete shut downs, and some based on doing nothing. We have models on the economic impacts, the unemployment rates, the GDP rates, and everything economically in between. I am pretty sure that have modeling regarding the modeling. 

The only thing that has remained constant has been the inaccuracy of these models. 
  • At first they overplayed it by a few 100 percent (2.2 million Americans would die). Then they reversed course and underplayed it (60,000). Then many made adjustments to the number that in come cases doubled the final results. Some of these significant changes happened overnight.
  • Modeling is what told Cuomo that he needed 40,000 ventilators (when he needed more like 4000). Modeling is what told Americans that we were going to be short tens of thousands of hospital beds (we are running at 35% of normal capacity). Modeling told our Governor that 70,000 Minnesotans would die (regardless of what we did). 
  • Modeling told us that Florida, Texas, South Dakota that didn't shut down (or shut down early enough) would suffer massively for their lack of action. They haven't.  
  • Economic modeling told us that countries and states that didn't shut down would not reap much reward. Those models have turned out to be horribly wrong based on all empirical evidence to date. In Scandinavia for instance, Denmark and Norway has seen gross spending drop by 70% while Sweden's drop has been around 30%. Minnesota (which is locked down tight) has a current unemployment rate (15) that is two and a half times higher than South Dakota (6%) that remains mostly open.

There once was a time that if you heard the term statistical modeling and Harvard in the same breath it would have some bearing of respect and authority that came with it. Today it provides little more than another "eye roll". The more "academic" the model, the more likely it is to have a horrible political taint and almost no semblance to reality. 

The truth is that if Democrats "really" wanted to listen to science, then they would put aside their infatuation with statistical modeling and spend more time evaluating the gross amounts of empirical data that is currently available on pretty much every subject. This could be looking at the existing historical data on global warming (without changing it), rather than insist that computer guesses can be deemed to be empirical data. Or this could be looking at the raw numbers that currently exist on Covid-19 that is being tracked in a variety of locations, rather than searching out whatever "model" they are looking for that will tell them what they want to believe. 

As a cynic, a political skeptic, and a guy with a reasonable understanding of how modeling works, they are little more than a reflection of whatever assumption if being made. If you believe that the greenhouse effect will raise temperatures 10 degrees a year, then it's simple and easy to concoct a model that will show that. If you believe that not locking down your entire state will lead to catastrophic results, then you can create a model that will reinforce that belief. 

But that model is only the result of the underlying theory. As that theory changes, so does the model. There is no such thing as some generic model that exists outside of assumptions and beliefs that will tell us the future from any sort objective manner. The entire concept of modeling is 100% subjective. Which is why it's not "real" science in any sense of the word. 


32 comments:

anonymous said...

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! SURE LIL SCHITTY......SPEAK FOR DEMS LIKE YOU KNOW SOMETHING!!!!!!

Biggest lie of your tenure....but with the bar constantly shifting with you fears.....does it really matter especially with trump the non science guy at the helm!!!!!!! Asshole!!!

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...


A DIRECT CONTRADICTION OF CH:

Democratic candidates -- some with medical backgrounds -- lean into science as a campaign message

By Simone Pathe, CNN

Updated 9:00 AM ET, Sun May 10, 2020

(CNN)Only Pritesh Gandhi's eyes were visible above his blue scrubs and white doctor's coat.

"I'm wearing a mask, and you may ask why," the Democratic congressional candidate said in a video he posted to Twitter late last month. Gandhi, who's hoping to unseat a longtime Republican in Texas' 10th District, filmed himself outside the Austin community health clinic where he's a physician and where, he explained, masks are required.

"And because I'm an adult, and I know how to respect the policy that's put in place by a facility," Gandhi said -- a retort to Vice President Mike Pence, who earlier that day had toured the Mayo Clinic maskless.

Democrats and Republicans with medical backgrounds have long used their MDs to convey competency, compassion and a commitment to service when running for Congress. But Democrats, especially, think the coronavirus pandemic has become a strong proof point in their argument that the defense of science can be a winning campaign message — and some party strategists think that's given candidates with scientific backgrounds, including doctors like Gandhi, an advantage.
They're drawing contrasts between their candidacies and the GOP -- namely the President and the down-ballot Republicans who have mostly stood by him.


In the same tweet, Gandhi listed reasons why his followers shouldn't be surprised by Pence's behavior, including calling him a "climate change denier" and alluding to his 2002 comments in a CNN town hall that condoms aren't effective at preventing STDs.

The election of President Donald Trump — and what many have perceived as his administration's attacks on science — sparked Democratic efforts to elect more scientists to Congress, with an outside group formed in the summer of 2016 to do just that. 314 Action is committed to spending $10-$12 million in 2020 through its independent expenditure arm to elect candidates with STEM backgrounds.

C.H. Truth said...

Democratic Governors "listening to science"

61000 deaths and 341 deaths per 1,000,000


Republican Governors "ignoring science"

17000 deaths and 115 deaths per 1,000,000




So at the end of the day...

Are average Americans going to look at the reality...

Or look at a political advertising?


Of course, I know what you will listen to, Reverend...

Because you don't even trust your religion over your politics, and you sure the hell will not trust the empirical data over politics!

anonymous said...

Again.....I watched a group of red state gov's all saying the same thing.....The models are all fucked up!!!! Mot one of them provided an explanation of how that was so or that they were not useful tools....!!!! They all sounded exactly like Lil Schitty when I asked him numerous times about GW models that he said were fucked!!!! He could not provide a cogent response on how they were wrong or which ones were wrong.....So typical of right biased assholes....blowing smoke out their asses and yelling they were wrong is enough for the intellectually disabled of the GOP!!!!!

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Democratic governors are in states with the larger cities, cities where due to Trump's mishandling and downplaying of the virus outbreak, got large headstarts on infections.

Republican governors are in states that are more rural, with smaller cities.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Paying attention to science would involve invoking the Defense Procurement Act.
That's what governors want.
Why do Trump and the GOP hold back?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tapper-to-trump-adviser-heres-what-governors-tell-me/vi-BB13RZCm?ocid=spartandhp

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Democrats Lean Into Science
May 10, 2020 at 11:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 89 Comments
CNN


ROFLMFAO at the "pastor" hiding the connection from his GODdard !!!

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

I'm reminded about a comment making the rounds:

Joe Biden does NOT believe in SCIENCE. If he did he would be in an assisted living home.

But after seeing what Cuomo did to New York maybe he was correct.

C.H. Truth said...

Democratic governors are in states with the larger cities, cities where due to Trump's mishandling and downplaying of the virus outbreak, got large headstarts on infections.

Republican governors are in states that are more rural, with smaller cities.


Really?

Two of the top five metro areas are in Texas.
Florida has one of the largest metro areas and one of the oldest populations.
Atlanta is a top ten metro area in the country...


Can you explain why they are doing so much better than Michigan or Pennsylvania, or even Massachusetts which have smaller metropolitan areas?


Please provide us with your empirical-lacking argument, Reverend!

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Which states and which cities had the largest, earliest fly ins from countries, including Europe, where the virus was already spreading?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

For Democrat Nancy Goroff, science is a big reason why she took a leave of absence as chair of Stony Brook University's chemistry department to run for Congress on Long Island.

"I just got to a point in the last two years of being so frustrated and really infuriated at how Republicans, and especially the Trump administration and our representative here, Lee Zeldin, were ignoring science and ignoring facts and evidence and had their priorities so upside down and backwards, that they were hurting people," Goroff said. "And that was before Covid-19."

Climate change -- and the Trump administration's plans to withdraw from the Paris climate accord -- troubled Goroff, who researches carbon-based materials for solar cells. Only three House Republicans joined with Democrats last year to try to block Trump from using federal funds to withdraw from the agreement.

"The current situation has just crystallized the importance of bringing science to Washington that much more," Goroff added.

Zeldin's campaign said his "record strongly supporting science speaks for itself" in his efforts to fund projects in his district and nationally.

"Congressman Zeldin, co-chair of the National Labs Caucus and member of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus, has continued to deliver victory after victory for scientific research in his district, most recently securing the multi-billion dollar Electron Ion Collider project for Brookhaven National Lab," spokeswoman Katie Vincentz said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Goroff is leaning into her credentials. An invitation for a virtual fundraiser noted prominently that if elected, Goroff would be "the first female PhD scientist to serve in Congress." Her first TV ad features frontline medical works saying they need a scientist in Congress.

Gandhi, too, knocks the GOP incumbent in his district -- Rep. Michael McCaul -- as anti-science, and touts his own scientific knowledge. He tweets regularly -- from pictures of himself in full PPE to a paper he co-authored in a New England Journal of Medicine publication -- and he expects voters will see that in his paid advertising, too.

"They're going to know that I'm a physician. They're going to know that I have my Master's in Public Health, that I'm trained to solve problems," he said.Dr. Pritesh Gandhi is running in Texas with the goal of unseating incumbent Republican Rep. Michael McCaul.

McCaul's campaign did not respond to requests for comment about being "anti-science."

A winning strategy?
314 Action says their polling has traditionally shown that voters want leaders who make decisions based on facts -- and that's especially so this spring.

"They're going to have a leg up," Matt Canter, a longtime Democratic pollster working for the group, said of candidates with science backgrounds.
Before Gandhi and Goroff even have a shot at taking on Republicans, though, they'd both have to win competitive primaries that feature the 2018 nominees in their districts.

Goroff says she's seen the salience of the science message in her own polling and in anecdotal conversations she and her volunteers have had with voters.

"It's such a strong contrast with the Trump administration," she said. "I mean, there were already consequences before. Now, those negative consequences include people dying every day," she said.

C.H. Truth said...

Which states and which cities had the largest, earliest fly ins from countries, including Europe, where the virus was already spreading?


Sorry Reverend...


Doesn't say anything.... other than other states should simply be behind on the curve, which isn't happening. Also, the reality is that the virus is known to have hit the West Coast first, who waited almost two months for them to shut anything down. Places like Michigan were shut down before their first death.


The simple fact is that the empirical data does not support your notion that Democrats have been "listening to science" unless everyone wants to just admit that ALL of the science was wrong?

So is that where the argument takes us?

Well yeah, those dumb Republicans did better than the smart Democrats... because they were too dumb to listen to the science that turned out dead wrong?

I am a little confused how you equate such a significant difference in the actual death toll and make people believe that more deaths and worse economic outcomes is somehow better...

and that those Republicans who had less dead and have better economies coming out should have followed suit?

C.H. Truth said...

Bottom line Reverend...


This entire argument lies on the false notion that Florida, Georgia, Texas, South Dakota, etc... all screwed up and that they sacrificed lives to keep their economies in better shape.


But the reality is much, much, much different from the rhetoric?


You expect that Americans will just never know the true story?
That GOP governors and GOP strategists won't make the empirical argument every day?

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Maybe there's some clue in the data ?

Hydroxychloroquine News
@niro60487270

The ratio of active cases to recovered cases is shockingly high in New York where outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine was banned compared to Texas where it wasn't.

https://twitter.com/niro60487270/status/1258802540801449984


But apparently Cuomo's brother for some reason received hydroxychloroquine when he tested positive...

Top of my head answer to 3 largest fly in cities were Los Angeles, New York and Miami. But at this point what difference does it make?

ROFLMFAO !!!

Anonymous said...

Mot one of them provided an explanation of how that was so or that they were not useful tools....!!!!


well BWAA, that would be because the failures of the various models are what we refer to as self-explanatory.

both the IHME and imperial college models were wrong by several orders of magnitude, predicting 2.5 MILLION deaths while we haven't even hit 100,000.

you're so fucking stupid you're demanding an explanation for that?

huh.



C.H. Truth said...

Top of my head answer to 3 largest fly in cities were Los Angeles, New York and Miami. But at this point what difference does it make?

We can add Seattle...

Anonymous said...




314 Action says their polling has traditionally shown that voters want leaders who make decisions based on facts -- and that's especially so this spring.


facts.

like warmyl cooling. and how a massive green nude eel tax INCREASE is required to arrest it.

yeah, facts.


Goroff, who researches carbon-based materials for solar cells.

lemme guess... i bet nancy is flush with federal and state research grant $$$. i'd be interested to know how much.


Anonymous said...



well lookee here -

It's also why my Department, while I was Chair, brought in more than $22 million from the US Department of Energy to fund two Energy Frontier Research Centers to develop new batteries for energy storage.

https://www.goroffforcongress.com/about

bragging about fleecing the federal government out of $22 MILLION. that's disgusting.



Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

White House Races to Contain Virus In Its Ranks
May 10, 2020 at 1:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

“The Trump administration is racing to contain an outbreak of Covid-19 inside the White House, as some senior officials believe that the disease is already spreading rapidly through the warren of cramped offices that make up the three floors of the West Wing,” the New York Times reports.

Said economic adviser Kevin Hassett: “It is scary to go to work. I think that I’d be a lot safer if I was sitting at home than I would be going to the West Wing.”

He added: “It’s a small, crowded place. It’s, you know, it’s a little bit risky. But you have to do it because you have to serve your country.”
___________

Now, I guess no one should suggest that this situation might be due to a reluctance to face the actual SCIENCE of the need for lockdown, distancing, and testing.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Sort of embarrassing, isn't it, to have this happening in a White House whose chief occupant constantly talked down the danger of the virus and has discouraged the wearing of masks for himself ("it sends the wrong message") and for others.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

James said...
Hey, Fn' get this straight. I will use "uncredited" info from Goddard without attributing it to him when he himself attributes it to named sources. I will do that because I want to, and because it bothers you.


YOU FUCKING LIAR. Goddard himself makes up those FAKE headlines you spam, not the source you claim absolves you.

YOU ARE ALSO A FUCKING IDIOT.

AND A FUCKING THIEF with NO CONSCIOUS

I will continue to use JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY because I tell the TRUTH ABOUT YOU

ROFLMFAO !!!


figure this fits again because of the constant use of Goddard and he is now posting the exact same entries into multiple threads.

Commonsense said...

Republican governors are in states that are more rural, with smaller cities.

Yeah, Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando all have that small town feel.

Shit for brains.

anonymous said...

acksonville, Tampa, Orlando all have that small town feel.

Shit for brains.

Yep cramps, compared to NY or LA....they sure do.....Especially Jacksonvile as Lil Schitty earlier said floriduh had one of the largest metro areas in the country.....which is true for the size of Jacksonville since it is the largest city area wise in the US.....as for population......has nothing compared even to staten island!!!!!

anonymous said...

YOU FUCKING LIAR. Goddard himself makes up those FAKE


BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Fucking idiot daddy who can't find his own ass in the dark speaks out his pie hole again!!!!!!!1 God you are even dumber than you think!!!!!!

Commonsense said...

And unlike New York and LA, Jacksonville doesn't have an incompetent mayor and governor.

Put that in your pie and eat it.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Math is hard for James.

Deaths per 100,000 has completely escaped him.

Anonymous said...

October 2019, China Virus is released from the Lab.
WHO knew and covered it up for Thier Buddies the Communist Chinese.

Anonymous said...

""Ordinary men and women are too small minded to govern their own affairs."
Obimbo

anonymous said...

acksonville doesn't have an incompetent mayor and governor.


BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! Yes cramps.....that must be it!!!!!!!!!! Take of your rose colored glasses!!!!!!

Commonsense said...

Why Denny, I think you're just about the only person in the world who doesn't think DeBlasio is an incompetent fool. You have more company on Cuomo but not much more.

Anonymous said...

Blogger James said...

Sort of embarrassing, isn't it, to have this happening in a White House whose chief occupant constantly talked down the danger of the virus and has discouraged the wearing of masks for himself ("it sends the wrong message") and for others.



not half as embarrassing as when, after six long DEADLY fucking weeks, you're the governor of NY and you finally get around to rescinding a policy that has killed 4900 nursing home residents.

but to be embarrassed one must know shame, and cuomo's know no shame.