North Carolina:
- PPP - Biden +2
- Gravis - Trump +3
- CNBC - Biden +2
- Civtas Harper - Trump +3
- NYTimes - Biden +9
Michigan:
- Trafalgar Group - Biden +1
- CNBC - Biden +2
- NYTimes - Biden +11
Arizona -
- CNBC - Biden +1
- NYTimes - Biden +7
Pennsylvania
- CNBC - Biden +2
- NYTimes -Biden +10
Obviously polling doesn't look good for the President right now, nor do I expect it to change much in the near future. In fact, if history is our guide, most pollsters won't provide us with their real honest to goodness polling results until a week to ten days before the election. In 2016, it wasn't until the last two weeks or so that Hillary's larger leads started evaporating into the three to five point leads that nearly everyone showed at the end.
As I pointed out the other day, Hillary still held double digit leads in a double digit amounts of polls released within 30 days of the election. I don't see any reason why we will not be seeing these same double digit Biden leads until November actually rolls around. Then, of course, all of the pundits will feint confusion as to why all of the polling converged (again) in the last stages of the election cycle.
Harry Enten has been working overtime trying to convince everyone that Biden is running ahead of the pace that Clinton was running. He seems to take stock in the idea that a 48-38 polling lead is significantly better than a 46-36 polling lead, as it puts Biden closer to where he needs to be. I neither agree or disagree with this theory at this point. I see little use in polling taking place in the middle of significant events that will likely not be what we are talking about in October and November.
I would also offer that Enten misses the larger point. In 2020 (especially in the state polling) there was quite literally two different subsets of polling. If you graphed out the polls, you would have seen almost no polling showing the race where the cumulative average (mean) was. What you saw was two groupings of poll results. One subset of polls showing Clinton doing considerably better than the average and one subset showing Trump doing considerably better than the average.
My personal experience in watching these sorts of polling is that generally the answer is not found in the middle, but rather one subset or the other subset will ultimately be correct and the other wrong. The difference between the two will almost always be assumptions about who will show up to vote. It seems that every year there are pollsters who make assumptions that "this" is really the year that the electorate will shift dramatically. Then there are other pollsters who keep themselves tied closely to historical demographic turnouts and poll accordingly. Those assumptions lead to wildly different results.
Once you eliminate those assumptions and focus on the raw numbers, the cross tabs were not all that different in 2016 between the pollsters. Based on my own assumptions about the demographic outlook (tied exclusively to historical averages and not opinion) I was able to use cross tabs (and only cross tabs) guess the final result within a couple of tenths of a percentage point. Moreover, my spreadsheet did not move up and down all that much over the course of time. It never got any higher than about a four point Hillary lead, even when she was leading by double that in national averages.
We are already seeing this separation in many of the State polling (as pointed out in my opening numbers). You see many pollsters showing the race very close (as it was in 2016) and then you will see many others showing Biden with large leads. The answer, however, is likely not to take an "average" of those two subsets. Accuracy, in this case, will be to figure out which subset will be right, and plan accordingly.
84 comments:
I found this interesting:
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
Reader Tip: Coming Later (2nd Consecutive Day)
Our Daily Presidential Tracking poll today shows Black Likely Voter approval of the job @realDonaldTrump in the usual current mid-30% range while other Non-White Likely Voter approval soars above 55%.
I wonder if we won't have an election much like 1972 when Nixon decisively won a second term in a huge landslide. Except the actual corruption was on the left.
Of course big tech influence is a big unknown. And China feeds big tech...
The big picture: The U.S. today is getting closer to the worst-case scenario envisioned in the spring — a nationwide crisis, made worse by a vacuum of political leadership, threatening to overwhelm hospitals and spread out of control.
Nationwide, cases are up 30% compared to the beginning of this month, and dramatically worsening outbreaks in several states are beginning to strain hospital capacity — the same concern that prompted the nationwide lockdown in the first place.
This is the grimmest map in the eight weeks since Axios began tracking the change in new cases in every state.
By the numbers: Over half the country — 26 states — have seen their coronavirus caseloads increase over the past week.
New cases are up 77% in Arizona, 75% in Michigan, 70% in Texas and 66% in Florida.
California, which has seen steady increases for weeks, recorded a 47% jump in new infections over the past week.
These steep increases come after weeks of steadily climbing cases or back-and-forth results across the South, Midwest and West Coast. Only the New York region and parts of New England — the earliest hotspots — have consistently managed to get their caseloads down throughout May and June.
Increased testing does not explain away these numbers. Other data points make clear that we’re seeing a worsening outbreak, not simply getting better data.
Seven states, including Arizona, have set records for the number of people hospitalized with coronavirus, and the percentage of all tests that come back positive is also increasing.
The whole point of the national lockdown was to buy time to improve testing and give infection levels a chance to level off without overwhelming hospitals. That worked in New York, but as other parts of the country begin to see their outbreaks intensify later, the same risks are back at the forefront.
What’s next: Younger people are making up a greater share of all cases, and tend to be less susceptible to serious injury or death, so hopefully this spike in new cases won’t be followed by an equivalent spike in deaths.
The subset is the fact that the white college educated women in the suburbs are not going to vote for the President.
enten can't see beyond his own biases. none of these liberal pollsters learned a fucking thing from 2016. they remain committed to believing their own bullshit.
growing up in riverdale and as a product of elite private schools and the ivy league have taught him exactly nothing about what's going on in the rest of the country.
hide under your bed alky.
mortality rate from covid for those under 70: 0.04%.
Roger Amick said...
The subset is the fact that the white college educated women in the suburbs are not going to vote for the President
The subset is the fact that the white college brainwashed women in the suburbs are not going to vote for the President Fixed it.
Probably true, and they probably didn't vote for him in 2016. But in 2020 lots are just going to stay home under their beds and avoid the Chinese flu or the marauding mob. And not vote. Or discretely vote for law and order. Like 1972.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
The subset is the fact that the white college educated women in the suburbs are not going to vote for the President.
you said the exact same thing in 2016 and you had your old, wrinkly, liver-transplanted ass HANDED TO YOU by TRUMP.
every political prediction you've made on this blog has been an epic fucking FAIL alky.
President Donald Trump is stepping up his attacks on the integrity of the election system, sowing doubts about the November vote at a time when the pandemic has upended normal balloting and as polls show former Vice President Joe Biden ahead by large margins.
Having yet to find an effective formula for undercutting Biden or to lure him into the kinds of culture war fights that the president prefers, Trump is training more of his fire on the political process in a way that appears intended to give him the option of raising doubts about the legitimacy of the outcome.
Promoting baseless questions about election fraud is nothing new for Trump. He has hopscotched from saying that President Barack Obama was elected with the help of dead voters to suggesting that undocumented immigrants were voting en masse to claiming that out-of-state voters were bused into New Hampshire in 2016.
But in recent days, Trump has focused intensive new attacks on voting by mail, as states grapple with the challenge of conducting elections in the middle of surging coronavirus cases in many parts of the country.
On Tuesday, Trump declared, without offering any evidence, that the 2020 election “will be, in my opinion, the most corrupt election in the history of our country, and we cannot let this happen.”
Mail-in ballots, he said, referring to conspiracy theories, could be stolen from carriers, counterfeited or forged by either forces inside the United States or by “foreign powers who don’t want to see Trump win.”
“There is tremendous evidence of fraud whenever you have mail-in ballots,” Trump claimed during an appearance in Arizona, a statement that has no basis in the experience of the states that give voters the option of voting by mail.
Trump has made five dozen false claims about mail balloting since April, as officials in various states began contemplating the need for expanded use of the option amid the pandemic.
About a third of the president’s falsehoods were general warnings about widespread fraud in mail-in voting. Another 11 were specific claims about held-up mail carriers, stolen and forged ballots and dead people voting.
Figures released Wednesday from a New York Times/Siena College survey of battleground-state voters showed that 61% strongly or somewhat support allowing all voters to use mail-in ballots if necessary, while 37% strongly or somewhat oppose it.
President Donald Trump is stepping up his attacks on the integrity of the election system...
i knew it.
stolen from that feckless cunt maggie haberman.
good job alky.
A new poll in the crucial general election battleground state of Wisconsin indicates Democratic challenger Joe Biden opening up a lead over President Trump. And a new survey in the swing state of Ohio shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee virtually tied with the GOP incumbent in the White House.
Biden tops the president 49-41 percent among registered voters in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette Law School poll released on Wednesday. And the former vice president edges Trump 46-45 percent in Ohio in a Quinnipiac University poll also out on Wednesday. Biden’s 1-point advantage is well within the survey’s sampling error.
BIDEN EXPANDS LEAD IN LATEST NATIONAL POLLING IN 2020 RACE
The release of the two surveys comes four and a half months before the November general election, which is an eternity in campaign politics.
Biden’s 8-point lead in the Marquette poll is up from a 3-point edge in the previous survey, which was conducted last month.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-opens-up-lead-in-wisconsin-tied-with-trump-in-ohio-polls
I've posted many times now that these polls showing big Biden leads are all using the same skewed methodology. Registered voters not likely voters and weighting by number of registered voters by state. This overstates states like CA and NY and understates the red Midwest states.
Rat
I have heard plenty of people (even people like Sean Trende) claiming that this "feels different" than 2016. I think the biggest difference now is that Trump is President and certain people are going to judge him (right, wrong, or indifferent) for the Covid-19 response, the uptick in crime, etc...
Ironically Covid-19, riots, unemployment, etc... are probably 95% the fault of the Democrats who are running the places where these things have run rampant. But ironically, you will still see the high Covid-19 death toll as being attributed by the MSM to Governors like DeSantis, Noem, Kemp, and others who have actually kept things fairly under control (while being criticized not for their result, but because of their game plan).
It's much like criticizing a football coach who wins 13 games and goes to the playoffs because you think he ran the passed too much, while celebrating the coach who lost 13 games because he ran the ball unsuccessfully. Generally in sports we accept results. For some odd reason, we do not do the same thing in politics (even when the win/loss records are that obvious).
Or ultimately, they will blame a federal response (that somehow disparagingly was cruel to Blue States rather than Red states). There was never even one report of anyone dying due to a lack of equipment or medical personnel. Most of what was delivered (Ventilators, temporary hospitals, extra medical people) went unused. They love the people in charge (Birx, Fauci, etc) but will still blame the Feds for their own incompetence.
They might even get away with it.
Election 2020 Biden Trump Spread
RCP National Average 50.6 40.6 Biden +10.0
Betting Odds 58.8 37.8
Electoral College 222 125
Battlegrounds Biden Trump Spread
Florida 49.8 43.6 Biden +6.2
Pennsylvania 49.3 43.0 Biden +6.3
Wisconsin 48.8 40.8 Biden +8.0
North Carolina 46.2 44.8 Biden +1.4
Arizona 46.3 42.3 Biden +4.0
Congress Dems GOP Spread
Battle for Senate 47 48
U.S. House 214 190
Generic Ballot 48.8 40.8 Dem +8.0
Dem Delegates: Biden 2171, Sanders 1047
You left out the polls that show that Biden is up by double digits, including Fox News
THANK OUR LUCKY STARS FOR TRUMP!
When a self-serving, corrupt and authoritarian personality like Trump moves to grab power and abuse it against his own people and the world, the forces he awakens move with such speed and surprise, that even a healthy democracy and developed nation of laws has few short term defenses against his immediate power and corruption. It takes time for internal and external opposing forces to organize effectively against such a phenomenon.
In the meantime, what protects the people and nature from such random, brute ambition and political force - the kind of force that follows no rules or norms, and will do anything, pick any fight, fabricate any issue, destroy any longstanding institution or person in order to advance himself?
What observers have learned is that the answer is his own flawed personal qualities. He often gets skewered not by the swords of others, but by his own. Trump has had an easy and extremely fast three year rise in America, but his deterioration is happening just as quickly. It is not just external events which have done it to him, but rather his responses to those events. That has, in some strange way, done the most to preserve our people and our democracy.
His impulsiveness, which arises out of his narcissism, and his inability to stay focused on the needs of being a public figure, combined with his calculation made long ago with the advice of Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, and others that he never needs to become president of all the people, just of his own minority of rich people, white supremacists, upper middle class people aspiring to be wealthy, disgruntled and misled members of the white working class, and assorted others on the fringes, have done more than anything else to save us.
In
In addiIn addition, there is his permanent tion, there is his permanent condition as a criminal thinker and obstructor of justice, a quality that is widespread among the wealthy ruling class in America. For him, all during his entire life, his savored victories have been in screwing others on a deal, or screwing someone out of something, or seducing potential victims in business or in his personal conquests (we can’t call it his romantic life, because his “conquests” are more about power and misogyny), not on doing something for others. This too has saved us, because he’s always ahead of events, looking around corners, and then acting too prematurely.
This is most true in his approach to trying to make our national coronavirus crisis disappear and get the economy moving again, and to turn public health efforts to save us into a political and cultural battle, which now very clearly has made the crisis worse and prolonged its duration, which is exactly the opposite of the effect Trump wanted. He doesn’t just shoot himself in the foot with his impulsiveness and criminal thinking, he machine guns it off.
Finally, though the list could go on, there is his own personal cowardice, a quality of most bullies (example: William Barr and Mike Pompeo). This has manifested in multiple, cheesy attempts to look strong, which are transparent, short-lived, and wearing thin with the people. The only thing that has truly saved us from international conflagration is the fact that he is a chickenshit who will not take any real risks, and who has lost the support of the command structure in the military. As a result of all this, he looks like a tinpot dictator of a banana republic, rather than the president of the United States.
Our European and other allies in the world, and more importantly their voters, have turned not only against Trump but now American citizens too, and thus there will be no more “international coalitions” to help militarily execute American imperial interests in the world for a long while. They don’t trust us anymore, do not understand how Trump was elected, and in truth, once the genie of our flaws as a world leader are out of the bottle, it will be difficult to put it back in.
We have to again thank Trump for his abrasiveness, refusal to learn how to conduct international diplomacy, refusal to read intelligence or listen to his available international experts, while acting (“acting”is the operative word, Trump is from New York City) like the mayor of Mayberry, North Carolina (during the Confederacy) when he goes abroad.
Trump and his henchmen have attempted to destroy liberal democracy in the world and the protective institutions in our nation, while elevating the prerogatives of the rich and powerful, but we probably should be grateful it was him and not someone more interested in how to how to govern or how to gather majorities more efficiently. Just as the bark of redwoods protects those magnificent giants from the injury of fire and disease, some strange quality in the organism of American democracy has protected us, even if only allowing this kind of personality to be the first to threaten our constitutional fabric.
Copyright 2020 by Charlie Abourezk.
They might even get away with it.
perhaps. keep an eye on the lies they tell, and the volume and cadence with which they tell them.
i continue to believe that there is a large swath of trump supporters who, like me, remain silent, don't attend the rallies, don't wear the maga hats, and most of all don't tell the fucking truth when a pollster calls.
i just don't see how the black lies matter looting & burning of our cities works in their favor. i know devout liberals who are disgusted and are demanding a return to law and order. they're thoroughly disgusted at what's going on, even more so with "token" wallace doing his jussie smollett impersonation. the fact that you feel compelled to lie with all of the actual racial injustice going on reflects a level of mental illness in my opinion.
the left in America is certifiably insane. hence they're insistence on voter fraud by mail.
they know they have to steal it. they have no path to victory otherwise.
As of today I have been sober for eight years.
One day at a time.
Unless the economy recovers from the depression because of the COVID-19 crisis, or a major mistake by Sleepy Joe Biden, we might see a landslide in November.
I have to wonder if he will actually accept the fact that he lost the election and refuses to accept the results and issues an executive order declaring the election interference activities made by the mail in ballots are fraudulent and refuses to depart the White House.
People like the racist rodent bastard would take arms are defend him.
People like the racist rodent bastard would take arms are defend him.
pay attention, fuckstick.
if i have to take up arms it will be to defend my life, my family, and my property.
for the past month or so your party is following through on their promise to destroy America, one burned-out and looted city at a time.
The poll showed that the same voters who are fleeing the president — highly educated white Americans, many of them once-reliable Republicans — are providing an advantage to Democratic Senate candidates. Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus and his bombastic response to protests over racial justice have made him an underdog against Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, who led the president by 14 percebntage points nationally in the Times poll.
The United States has a history of slavery and the Civil war against the Confederacy.
There is still too much racism and it has to be addressed. Most of police officers are not racist rodent bastards. But chokeholds should be banned by the federal government.
And the records of the police officers should be available to other police departments to make sure they don't hire someone who has in has a history of dangerous actions.
Albany NY - under democrat control since before i was born...
ALBANY – Albany police are investigating a homicide that occurred late Wednesday night on Second Avenue.
A 23-year-old man was shot in the torso near Second Avenue and Grandview Terrace. He was taken to Albany Medical Hospital where he died from his injuries.
[...]
The killing came on the same day that three brazen shootings killed one man and wounded three other people, including a teenager, in Albany's latest outbreak of violence.
The Wednesday incidents included a chase in the South End where a U-Haul truck hit another vehicle and a light near the intersection of Morton Avenue and South Pearl Street, which is near both the police department’s South Station and City Court.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/23-year-old-Albany-man-died-in-shooting-15365646.php
fortunately for everyone the mayor is committed to removing the statue of philip schuyler which has stood directly in front of city hall since 1925...
...because black LIES matter.
The United States has a history of slavery and the Civil war against the Confederacy.
yup.
democrats owned the slaves, democrats fought to keep them, and democrats comprised the confederacy. the KKK was the democrats terrorism arm to keep blacks 'in line.' democrats led the filibuster AGAINST the civil rights act of 1964.
now... repeat the myth about how republicans and democrats in the south switched sides, alky.
you repeat that myth so often you should write a fucking children's book about it.
The looting and violence is terrible.
Biden should run on a similar campaign that FDR used as the Great Depression was devastating the country, unemployed was about 25%. We need a New Path towards the future.
You have going to say that they are traitors and want to destroy our heritage.
Taking down a statue of Teddy Roosevelt was wrong. But Civil war generals should not be allowed in the public places.
I wonder if the racist rodent bastard doesn't have a Confederate flag on his house.
And the records of the police officers should be available to other police departments to make sure they don't hire someone who has in has a history of dangerous actions.
Unless they are in a sanctuary city. Or are here without documentation. Or are a rioter. Or have a union. Or are transgender. Or has the "wrong" political beliefs.
And they must take orders from their mayors and governors to not follow the rule of law.
Guess I could go on all day.. Some reforms are necessary. But much more is needed on the other side.
I wonder if the racist rodent bastard doesn't have a Confederate flag on his house.
What sort of flag do you fly proudly in your front yard, Rog?
trump is such a fucking racist -
NASA announced Wednesday that its headquarters will be named after one of its history-making engineers.
In a news release, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine announced the agency’s Washington, D.C., headquarters building will be named after Mary W. Jackson, its first African American female engineer.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/NASA-headquarters-to-be-renamed-after-Mary-W-15364837.php
There is still too much racism and it has to be addressed
Speak for yourself Roger. If you want to repent for being a racist go for it.
Your ignorance of history is unbelievably stupid.
Yes the Democrats were in favor of slavery in the Civil war era. But times have changed since then.
The Dixiecrats are gone forever. Nixon's Southern strategy converted the Dixiecrats into the Republicans of the southern states.
Lincoln is rolling in his grave because of what Trump has done to his party.
The whole point of the national lockdown was to buy time to improve testing and give infection levels a chance to level off without overwhelming hospitals. That worked in New York, but as other parts of the country begin to see their outbreaks intensify later, the same risks are back at the forefront.
Axios
Hey Rog Borglum, you know they guy who did Rushmore was a klanner
Caliphate4vr said...
Hey Rog Borglum, you know they guy who did Rushmore was a klanner
So you are saying he was a democrat?
Tom Bevan
@TomBevanRCP
NYT 'breaking news': In rush to save economy, Treasury Dept sent out 1 million payments to dead people totaling $1.4 billion.
Now tell me again how state govts mailing hundreds of millions of ballots to everyone on their voter rolls is going to result in zero fraud or abuse?
https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1276186051451772929
The Dixiecrats are gone forever. Nixon's Southern strategy converted the Dixiecrats into the Republicans of the southern states.
This has always been a lie white southern Democrats remained white southern Democrats only voting with the Republican in 1972 when Nixon won a 49 state landslide.
The south didn't really turned GOP until 1980 when native Georgia son Jimmy Carter was reject in his re-election bid by Ronald Reagan. The south split in 1992 with the election of Bill Clinton
The pederast, fatty and liver tell the same lies over and over and over and over.....
Germany doesn't have any status of Adolf Hitler nor his generals.
Why should we have statues of Traitors who took us into the Civil War that cost the lives of about 400,000 Americans?
Approximately 620,000 soldiers died from combat, accident, starvation, and disease during the Civil War. This number comes from an 1889 study of the war performed by William F. Fox and Thomas Leonard Livermore.
You still want to keep the statues of the Traitors.
Some people are taking it too far,by taking down statues of George Washington because he was a slave older at one time.
Trump is saying that the coronavirus is under control. But even the Republicans Governor of Texas disagrees.
As the coronavirus pandemic is about to enter its seventh month, COVID-19 continues to surge in parts of the U.S. — even as it eases in some states and other countries — setting record highs and filling up hospitals across numerous states.
On Thursday, the governor of Texas, one of the hardest-hit states, said he would pause the process of reopening businesses and institutions.
According to tracking from NBC News, Wednesday saw the U.S.’s highest-ever single-day number of new cases, with more than 45,000. The previous peak was on April 26. There is positive news in that the death rate is declining, possibly reflecting the fact that many of the new patients are younger. But deaths lag new cases by several weeks to months, and there is a worrisome sign in the rise in cases requiring hospitalization. According to tracking numbers from Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. has had more than 122,000 deaths and 2.4 million positive cases, far more than any other nation. As cases in Europe fall, calls to ban travel from the U.S. until the virus is under control here have increased.
Among the states setting new daily records this week are California, Arizona, Texas and Florida. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention documents obtained by Yahoo News show that most counties in these states were on a downward trajectory a month ago but now are almost all showing the opposite. Another map, by the Departments of Health and Human Services and Homeland Security, shows that as of June 21, 19 states had at least partially reopened (or never had statewide closures in the first place) while cases were still rising, despite CDC guidelines calling for at least two weeks of falling case numbers before the process was started.
fuck you, your lie, and your fraudulent version of history alky.
This magazine has long specialized in debunking pernicious political myths, and Jonah Goldberg has now provided an illuminating catalogue of tyrannical clichés, but worse than the myth and the cliché is the outright lie, the utter fabrication with malice aforethought, and my nominee for the worst of them is the popular but indefensible belief that the two major U.S. political parties somehow “switched places” vis-à -vis protecting the rights of black Americans, a development believed to be roughly concurrent with the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the rise of Richard Nixon. That Republicans have let Democrats get away with this mountebankery is a symptom of their political fecklessness, and in letting them get away with it the GOP has allowed itself to be cut off rhetorically from a pantheon of Republican political heroes, from Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass to Susan B. Anthony, who represent an expression of conservative ideals as true and relevant today as it was in the 19th century. Perhaps even worse, the Democrats have been allowed to rhetorically bury their Bull Connors, their longstanding affiliation with the Ku Klux Klan, and their pitiless opposition to practically every major piece of civil-rights legislation for a century. Republicans may not be able to make significant inroads among black voters in the coming elections, but they would do well to demolish this myth nonetheless.
Even if the Republicans’ rise in the South had happened suddenly in the 1960s (it didn’t) and even if there were no competing explanation (there is), racism — or, more precisely, white southern resentment over the political successes of the civil-rights movement — would be an implausible explanation for the dissolution of the Democratic bloc in the old Confederacy and the emergence of a Republican stronghold there. That is because those southerners who defected from the Democratic party in the 1960s and thereafter did so to join a Republican party that was far more enlightened on racial issues than were the Democrats of the era, and had been for a century. There is no radical break in the Republicans’ civil-rights history: From abolition to Reconstruction to the anti-lynching laws, from the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments to the Civil Rights Act of 1875 to the Civil Rights Acts of 1957, 1960, and 1964, there exists a line that is by no means perfectly straight or unwavering but that nonetheless connects the politics of Lincoln with those of Dwight D. Eisenhower. And from slavery and secession to remorseless opposition to everything from Reconstruction to the anti-lynching laws, the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments, the Civil Rights Act of 1875, and the Civil Rights Acts of 1957 and 1960, there exists a similarly identifiable line connecting John Calhoun and Lyndon Baines Johnson. Supporting civil-rights reform was not a radical turnaround for congressional Republicans in 1964, but it was a radical turnaround for Johnson and the Democrats.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2012/05/party-civil-rights-kevin-d-williamson/
The depth of Johnson’s prior opposition to civil-rights reform must be digested in some detail to be properly appreciated. In the House, he did not represent a particularly segregationist constituency (it “made up for being less intensely segregationist than the rest of the South by being more intensely anti-Communist,” as the New York Times put it), but Johnson was practically antebellum in his views. Never mind civil rights or voting rights: In Congress, Johnson had consistently and repeatedly voted against legislation to protect black Americans from lynching. As a leader in the Senate, Johnson did his best to cripple the Civil Rights Act of 1957; not having votes sufficient to stop it, he managed to reduce it to an act of mere symbolism by excising the enforcement provisions before sending it to the desk of President Eisenhower. Johnson’s Democratic colleague Strom Thurmond nonetheless went to the trouble of staging the longest filibuster in history up to that point, speaking for 24 hours in a futile attempt to block the bill. The reformers came back in 1960 with an act to remedy the deficiencies of the 1957 act, and Johnson’s Senate Democrats again staged a record-setting filibuster. In both cases, the “master of the Senate” petitioned the northeastern Kennedy liberals to credit him for having seen to the law’s passage while at the same time boasting to southern Democrats that he had taken the teeth out of the legislation. Johnson would later explain his thinking thus: “These Negroes, they’re getting pretty uppity these days, and that’s a problem for us, since they’ve got something now they never had before: the political pull to back up their uppityness. Now we’ve got to do something about this — we’ve got to give them a little something, just enough to quiet them down, not enough to make a difference.”
I’ll let someone involved in the civil rights movement answer your question, he wasn’t at home in lily Dakota watching it on teevee
Andrew Young, a former mayor of Atlanta and lifelong African-American civil rights activist, says the memorial should stay. Young served as a congressman from Georgia and ambassador to the United Nations. He was with Martin Luther King Jr. the day he was assassinated.
"That is a tremendous carving. And I don't want to see that destroyed. I don't care who it is," he says.
The red states are showing signs of an increase dramatically because they believed that the President was correct and they opened up. New York and the surrounding states have dramatically reduced the level of infections and the death toll.
Trump's approval ratings on the crisis are below 40%.
His support among white men is lower than it was in 2016. It's still over 50%.
He's scared to death about the mail in voters because he will lose in a "landslide ".
You keep thinking that it is a fraud.
This isn't Chicago in the 60s when people voted from the grave.
Nixon didn't dispute the election interference activities the mayor of Chicago.
I actually met George McGovern in Rapid City at the VFW where my father Ivan was a member of the club.
I had just turned 21 so I could vote in 72.
McGovern didn't even carry South Dakota.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Germany doesn't have any status of Adolf Hitler nor his generals.
Why should we have statues of Traitors who took us into the Civil War that cost the lives of about 400,000 Americans?
for the same reason germany did not demolish the concentration camps, you dumb fuck.
we have a holocaust museum for the same reason.
idiot.
I know that LBJ was not a supporter of the civil rights laws until he was took office after the Kennedy assassination.
But he understood the importance of the civil rights movement and he got the Voting rights act and the civil rights act passed, with substantial support from the Republicans of that era.
The concentration camps were largely left as a lesson about the Nazi's and their horrors. Not the same thing as having a statue of a traitor.
Like I said before
but it was a radical turnaround for Johnson and the Democrats.
Johnson rose to the occasion, Trump is incapable of being human.
He's running on the same damn platform as he did against Hillary Clinton.
Germany doesn't have any status of Adolf Hitler nor his generals.
They don't want to make him a hero.
Trump is saying that the coronavirus is under control. But even the Republicans Governor of Texas disagrees.
An entire cut and paste to a story that neither suggests that Trump believes anything is under control or that the Governor of Texas disagrees with the President about anything.
You still want to keep the statues of the Traitors.
Some people are taking it too far,by taking down statues of George Washington because he was a slave older at one time.
So violence and vandalism is perfectly fine as justified as long as it was Confederate iconography.
You morel relativism is disgusting.
Not the same thing as having a statue of a traitor.
Strictly speaking they were not traitors since they were all pardoned by 1868. And to the white southerners who trace their ancestors to those who fought and died in the Confederate Army, they were not traitors at all.
Unless you of course want to continue to condemn a third of the country to permanent second class status. 🖕
Destroy everything, pretend it didn’t happen
John Gutzon de la Mothe Borglum (March 25, 1867 – March 6, 1941) was an American artist and sculptor. He is most associated with his creation of the Mount Rushmore National Memorial in Keystone, South Dakota. He was associated with other public works of art, including a bust of Abraham Lincoln exhibited[5] in the White House by Theodore Roosevelt and now held in the United States Capitol Crypt in Washington, D.C. Borglum was also a member of the Ku Klux Klan.
The true number of Americans who've been infected with COVID-19 may top 20 million, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said on a call with reporters Thursday.
Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak
The estimate comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said.
Currently, there are 2.3 million COVID-19 cases reported in the U.S. The CDC's new estimate pushes the actual number of coronavirus cases up to at least 23 million.
More testing equals more positives idiot.
Niece and nephew are confirmed positive today, now they self quarantine for two weeks even though no symptoms
It’s a virus we will all get it, just quiver under your bed
More testing gives more results.
That's why the President wants to cut down the testing and declare victory over the virus and open up the country, despite the fact that it will lead to more deaths.
In the times of crisis, a great President would rise to the occasion. He's incapable of being a great American hero.
John Bolton shows how incapable of being a leader.
It’s funny hawks like Mattis and Bolton who wanted more ME wars are now darlings of the left
Idiot
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Told that @NYCMayor Bill de Blasio wants to paint the fabled & beautiful Fifth Avenue, right in front of Trump Tower/Tiffany, with a big yellow Black Lives Matter sign. “Pigs in a Blanket, Fry ‘Em Like Bacon”, referring to killing Police, is their chant. NYC Police are furious!
10:30 AM · Jun 25, 2020
36K
20K people are Tweeting about this
He's losing control of his emotions
Bolton would have gotten us into a war with North Korea and Iran.
Trump didn't listen to this shit.
I'm not a fan of Bolton but he's right about the President and his incredible story about how incapable he is
Caliphate4vr said...
It’s funny hawks like Mattis and Bolton who wanted more ME wars are now darlings of the left
Idiot
Trump made hiring mistakes because of his lack of Washington experience and the deep state and RINO repubs.
But he's fixing it.
His second term will be MUCH BETTER than his first.
And that was pretty spectacular despite the Russian HOAX and OBAMAGATE and the entrenched swamp
Very likely that the increased testing while resulting in more found positives is also detecting much less potent cases. Another theory is that more people are indoors running AC and that creates an incubation effect. We'll find out, science hasn't caught up yet.
JamesNewLeaf called this race over.
Biden in a landslide.
James owns her predicting.
Like Alky Owns Kerry and Hillary Historic landslide wins.
When Trump Wins, again.
Will The Marxist work with him or continue the "Resistance".
If Biden wins, impeachment must start on day one of his term.
Actually my hope is Trump has the GNU, CIA and other Intel agencies wire tapping and entraping Biden's camp.
Nothing wrong in it, Black Jesus Obama do it.
Marxist Black Lies Matter actually said: “Pigs in a Blanket, Fry ‘Em Like Bacon”
Very 60's of them, no original thought.
this is why we need MOAR government AND voter fraud by mail:
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Treasury sent about 1.1 million stimulus checks to people who were deceased, a government watchdog reported Thursday.
The economic stimulus payments made to deceased people had totaled nearly $1.4 billion as of April 30, the Government Accountability Office found. That number could be higher now.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Feds-sent-almost-1-1-million-stimulus-checks-to-15366061.php
alky, you are a fucking simpleton extraordinaire.
Roger is that you?
How ya been?
Anonymous Caliphate4vr said...
More testing equals more positives idiot.
Only a simpleton UGA graduate can conclude that....if the positive test rate remains the same.....there would be little evidence of a growing problem....with positive tests now rising to the 20's plus....not only do the counts increase, they will soon be growing exponentially if we don't do something.....!!!!!
WT.
"they will soon be growing exponentially if we don't do something..."
Like what?
Alky, fingers to fat or are you still too broken and broken to use this technology?
🤣Some people are taking it too far,by taking down statues of George Washington because he was a slave older at one time.😂🖕
🤣😃Why should we have statues of Traitors who took us into the Civil War that cost the lives of about 400,000 Americans?" Alky the living 🤡 clown
Roger, have you ever tried to understand any subject before posting your wrong data?
Fatty you are in the Covid sweet spot old and infirm, I get YOUR concern. So shelter and quiver in place old man.
Let those of us with a .04% chance of croaking make our own choices.
Fuck off fatboy
More Polling Shows Battleground Leads for Biden
New battleground polls from Redfield and Wilton:
Arizona: Biden 43%, Trump 39%
Florida: Biden 45%, Trump 41%
Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%
North Carolina: Biden 48%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 39%
Wisconsin: Biden 45%, Trump 36%
"Ignore the polls.
Register to vote."
--Joe Biden
Our big mouth of the south acting like a tough lil asshole he thinks he is!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! My guess is your blood pressure is well elevated as you are wound up around the axle and drink way too much, eat shit fast food and worry about your job.....Yep the nucleus is all there for your own problems not mine.....Had a beer in copper hill and a quick lunch in McCaysville, while you twiddled on your keyboard hiding at home.....tooo fucking funny the brave salesman trying to be a tough guy!!!!! God you really are a simpleton!!!
Like what?
Have idiots like you and UGA boy take your collective heads out of trumps fat ass.....LOLOLOL
Fatty no one here downs fast food like you, hence your diabetes and need for multiple joint replacements.
LMAO
Forgot to mention you mighty brave bookkeeper
LMAO
Open up the country says the President.
The true number of Americans who've been infected with COVID-19 may top 20 million, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield said on a call with reporters Thursday, NBC News reported.
Shelter and quiver in place old man, no one is stopping you
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is part of the administration and they show that the President is ignoring the situation today.
He's not risking to the situation.
He's not capable of performing his duties as President.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1276112782187003904?s=09
Here stupid the spike can be attributed to the rioters and looters. IOW you guys are the cause not Rs or red state governors, idiot
https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/
Square that and continue to quiver in place
WT.
they will soon be growing exponentially if we don't do something..."
Like what?
Denise got muffin.
Per ussual.
K-rist Alky.
How does anyone.
🤡He's not risking to the situation.🤡
Take a look at some of my most recent posts on the next thread up.
But be sure you DON'T read them.
They might disturb you.
Don’t worry, I won’t
Correction, no one will
He's going to lose big time.
Trump administration on Thursday night urged the Supreme Court to strike down Obamacare, pushing forward with its attack on the health care law as millions of newly jobless Americans may come to depend on its coverage.
The Justice Department in a new legal brief argues Obamacare in its entirety became invalid when the previous Republican-led Congress axed the unpopular individual mandate penalty for uninsured people. The filing comes weeks after President Donald Trump confirmed his administration would continue to press for Obamacare's elimination, ignoring warnings from top aides about the risk of voter backlash in November.
“No further analysis is necessary; once the individual mandate and the guaranteed-issue and community-rating provisions are invalidated, the remainder of the ACA cannot survive," the Justice Department stated.
Trump’s new legal brief offers fresh ammunition to Democrats and their presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden, who believe their advantage on health care will help the party retake the White House and possibly the Senate this fall. On Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced plans to vote on legislation building on the Affordable Care Act, timing the bill to draw a contrast with Trump's legal attack on the law during the coronavirus emergency.
The Trump-backed lawsuit, brought by a group of Republican-led states, puts at risk health insurance for more than 20 million people covered by Obamacare, as well as insurance protections for people with preexisting medical conditions. Biden during a Thursday campaign event attacked Trump for seeking to upend those protections when a growing number of coronavirus survivors are developing potentially fatal infections.
“No further analysis is necessary; once the individual mandate and the guaranteed-issue and community-rating provisions are invalidated, the remainder of the ACA cannot survive," the Justice Department stated.
alky,
if you had even TRIED to understand the mechanics of 0linsky-care you would have had to have acknowledged that it's basically powered on fairy dust and unicorn farts. it cannot defeat two basic and inextricably linked laws -
the law of economic gravity, and stein's law.
the individual mandate and the guaranteed-issue and community-rating provisions were what the law needed to sustain itself. without that $$$ fueling the ponzi, the fucker was guaranteed to collapse.
look son, here in NY our asshole governor thought he could expand medicaid until the end of fucking time without consequence. and now we're choking on a budget shortfall estimated at between $6 & $16 BILLION, of which medicaid expansion is a major part. hence cuomo sucking schumer's ass to try and get the feds to pick up our tab.
when thatcher said socialism is great until you run out of other people's money, she wasn't kidding.
so trump loses the court case. that's what we call a pyrrhic victory for your side because at the end of the day, as stein's law so eloquently states - "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
as the asshole economist from MIT admitted, the law was basically a false promise to the American people based on their stupidity and willingness to fall for it. it's ironic that you embody that to a "T".
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