These are numbers that show a close race (just as we had back in 2016). Certainly Trump won Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina and came close in Minnesota. These polling numbers are all running marginally behind the President's 2016 performance... but are they running behind the 2016 polling numbers?
The reality is that some people truly believe that 2020 is already over, Biden has won, and the Democrats have already regained control of the Senate. You are already hearing buzz from many on the left demanding that the first order of business will be to eliminate the filibuster in order to push a far left agenda on the general public.
But I suspect that sometime between now and election day we will see a string of polls showing the race to be close again (likely as soon as Biden is forced out of isolation). We had a moment in time where the polling average had dropped from close to double digits down to under six, but of course that is all dependent on timing. All it takes are a couple of new polls (quite literally a new pollster in one case) to show Biden winning by 12, 13, or even more... and those averages are rocked.
Perhaps I am wrong, and the polling will continue to show Biden leading nationally by upper single digits through the end of October. Perhaps the slew of battleground state polling will continue to show Trump underperforming his 2016 results by substantial margins.
But how nervous will Democrats become if we do actually see the Biden lead shrink down the stretch (like we did with Clinton in 2016). She went from leading in multiple polls by double digits in October to finishing up only leading between 3-4 points (only to go on to lose). If polling starts to move again (deja vu all over again), I would offer it would be outright panic.
58 comments:
In my opinion, the only way that the President can get reelected President, is to use voter suppression.
The younger voters turned out in a higher percentage than in 16, as they did in 18.
The white suburban women are sick and tired of the President and if they turn out in a record proportion your ideas will be proven incorrect
You used Rasmussen poll results and didn't post the results of two other polls from North Carolina that showed,Biden ahead
CBS News 7/28 - 7/31 48 44 Biden +4
CNBC 7/24 - 7/26 49 46 Biden +3
The only reason 2018 was favorable for the dems was the now debunked Russian collusion narrative.
And with documents dropping weekly (with no MSM coverage) the integral part the Obama administration played in creating and maintaining that false narrative is becoming clearer.
I think when Biden announces his VP candidate is the day he "jumps the shark". It's pretty obvious that no one has polled well or he would have announced last week. Now he's been painted in a corner and the cockroaches are scrambling.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Biden is 2 weeks behind his own target date in naming a " men need not apply" VP.
What does he find so offensive about black and Hispanic men?
You used a Republican poll to claim that the President is in the lead in Arizona, but the summary of all the polls show different results.
_?RCP Average 7/18 - 8/8 47.5 45.3 Biden +2.2
Trafalgar (R)* 8/5 - 8/8 45 46 Trump +1
Predictive Insights 8/3 - 8/4 49 45 Biden +4
CNBC 7/24 - 7/26 47 45 Biden +2
CNN 7/18 - 7/24 49 45 Biden +4
Sara A. Carter
@SaraCarterDC
DOJ Lawyers Hint At Explosive New Evidence That Led Barr To Drop Charges Against Michael Flynn - Sara A. Carter
What could it be?
Paul Sperry
@paulsperry_
BREAKING: Handwritten internal FBI notes suggest Strzok + [redacted] agent had a phone conversation & meeting w/ Steele regarding his dossier in the weeks before Strzok opened the Crossfire Hurricane investigation on July 31, 2016, raising fresh doubts about the FBI's predication
things are breaking all over the place
Philip Wegmann
@PhilipWegmann
New York estimates COVID deaths in nursing homes at 6,600. AP’s back of the envelope estimate places that number closer to 11,000.
https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter
The only Russians we're interested in these days are those who want Trump to be reelected.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Note Trump's dip down toward the end of the graph. :)
Thecoldheartedtruth used to be a somewhat open minded blogger
Even during the Obama administration, he took a rational approach to politics.
But since Trump won the election in November 16, he has become a close minded cultists.
Trump is not a conservative, it is all about him. Hundreds of thousands of America conservative groups have broken away from the President. And instead of thinking clearly about this President policies,he has joined the cult
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
Note Trump's approval rate falling some
and his disapproval rate rising some
toward the end of the graph. :)
Georgia used to be a solid red state but the changing demographics have made a difference.
It's in the play for Biden
RCP Average 6/20 - 8/8 46.7 45.7 Trump +1.0
WXIA/SUSA 8/6 - 8/8 44 46 Biden +2
CBS News 7/28 - 7/31 45 46 Biden +1
Monmouth* 7/23 - 7/27 48 47 Trump +1
Trafalgar (R)* 7/15 - 7/18 50 43 Trump +7
Gravis 7/2 - 7/2 48 45 Trump +3
FOX News 6/20 - 6/23 45 47 Biden +2
Biden Leads In Wisconsin
August 11, 2020 at 1:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
A new Marquette Law School Poll of likely voters in Wisconsin finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 49% to 44%.
_______________
Biden Campaign Prepping for Event In Delaware
August 11, 2020 at 1:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
The New York Times found a ballroom in Wilmington, Delaware at the Hotel du Pont being prepped for a big event — presumably for Joe Biden’s announcement of his running mate.
“It is worth noting that the Hotel du Pont was where he announced his 1972 Senate candidacy. It is also where he has made major political appearances in the decades since — including, in March, the last in-person event he held before the coronavirus shuttered the campaign trail for months.”
Techno Fog
@Techno_Fog
Flynn Hearing -
US Acting Solicitor General Jeff Wall discusses the decision to dismiss the charges:
"The AG sees this in context of non-public information."
"It may be possible that the AG had before him information that he was not able to share with the Court."
tantalizing...
If he would let me post again that graph would be here soon
Hey "pastor"
Why don't you go back to 2016 and post all the same shit you posted from back then.
Or are you?
ROFLMFAO !!!
Susan Collins Trailing In Maine
August 11, 2020 at 2:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 93 Comments
A new Critical Insights poll in Maine finds Sarah Gideon (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 35%.
In the presidential race, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump statewide, 44% to 36%, and just edges him in the swing second congressional district, 39% to 38%.
Trump War Room - Text TRUMP to 88022
@TrumpWarRoom
SCOOP: Multiple sources familiar confirm Joe Biden has forgotten who he picked for VP
or maybe he's already committed to several ???
2016 is not comparable.
BIDEN HAS MADE HIS CHOICE!!!
August 11, 2020 at 2:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
Joe Biden told his top advisers this morning who he wants as his running mate, CNN reports.
IN MY NEXT POST I WILL TELL YOU WHO IT IS.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg ?
Ruth Bader Ginsburg's mother ?
Mike ?
oh the suspense is killing me
ROFLMFAO !!!
An anguished question from a Trump supporter: "Why do liberals think Trump supporters are stupid?"
The serious answer: Here’s what we really think about Trump supporters - the rich, the poor, the malignant and the innocently well-meaning, the ones who think and the ones who don't...
That when you saw a man who had owned a fraudulent University, intent on scamming poor people, you thought "Fine."
That when you saw a man who had made it his business practice to stiff his creditors, you said, "Okay."
That when you heard him proudly brag about his own history of sexual abuse, you said, "No problem."
That when he made up stories about seeing muslim-Americans in the thousands cheering the destruction of the World Trade Center, you said, "Not an issue."
That when you saw him brag that he could shoot a man on Fifth Avenue and you wouldn't care, you chirped, "He sure knows me."
That when you heard him illustrate his own character by telling that cute story about the elderly guest bleeding on the floor at his country club, the story about how he turned his back and how it was all an imposition on him, you said, "That's cool!"
That when you saw him mock the disabled, you thought it was the funniest thing you ever saw.
That when you heard him brag that he doesn't read books, you said, "Well, who has time?" Only liberals read books
That when the Central Park Five were compensated as innocent men convicted of a crime they didn't commit, and he angrily said that they should still be in prison, you said, "That makes sense."
That when you heard him tell his supporters to beat up protesters and that he would hire attorneys, you thought, "Yes!"
That when you heard him tell one rally to confiscate a man's coat before throwing him out into the freezing cold, you said, "What a great guy!"
Mint Chip
@MintChipMusic
Mint Chip - THE LEFT CAN’T ALWAYS GET WHAT THEY WANT!
Since The Rolling Stones don’t want Trump to use their song, here’s an appropriate parody.
YouTube link: https://youtu.be/8PHRQV0sGNw
VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/MintChipMusic/status/1284622121621233664
Comfortably Smug
@ComfortablySmug
Congratulations Susan Rice!
must be right
part of the crime family
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
Anyone know how Hunter Biden magically settled $450,000 worth of tax liens in six days?
good question.
Unrattled Poso Flag of United States
@JackPosobiec
Kamala Harris is listed as a DNC convention speaker
Susan Rice and Karen Bass are not
Rosie Gray
@RosieGray
hey could i please get some more tweets from political reporters confirming that Biden has picked his VP and the choice could come today? thanks - running low
ROFLMFAO !!!
Get it over with, Sweden is open
New Zealand moves fast to lock down Auckland after return of COVID after 102 days
Harris
ROFLMFAO !!!
Will you know that was Obama...
the 3% got in
Biden may win California, or not !!!
Heels UP!!!
Will she "face-off" with Pence??
She will cost Biden a ton in swing states, Trump must be BEAMING !!!
Henry Rodgers
@henryrodgersdc
Y'all remember this? LOL.
Henry Rodgers
@henryrodgersdc
Jul 28
What’s up with this @politico?
https://twitter.com/henryrodgersdc/status/1288220712789049344/photo/1
and his trial balloon "notes"
Not looking good for college football because of the fake virus.....pac 12 and big 10 cancel season!!!! Trump tweets up another storm!!!!!!
@JackPosobiec
Fucking neo nazi white supremacist ass hole bigot ....just like the fucked up coward!!!!!
She will cost Biden a ton in swing states,
BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! Sure coward......in your wet dreams!!!!!!
Chris Loesch
@ChrisLoesch
Remember when @TulsiGabbard DESTROYED @KamalaHarris in the #DemDebates? I bet the voting public does.
VIDEO: https://twitter.com/ChrisLoesch/status/1293283058565734402?cxt=HHwWhoC8ydbu1fIjAAAA
Joe probably didn't remember.
VERY lo iq anonymous never knew
ROFLMFAO !!!
Remember when chris Loesch took trumps dick up his ass???????? BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!
Hey VERY lo iq anonymous.
Do you prefer ZERO iq anonymous ?
I actually think no one is that low but maybe you are close enough ?
lmk (let me know)
John McCain made a mistake by picking Sarah Palin.
Biden didn't make the same mistake by choosing Kamala Harris!
And the coward put vaseline on loesch ass to help!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
Mollie
@MZHemingway
"Pragmatic Moderate" is apparently the messaging that Democrats are going with. HA HA HA HA HA. I LOVE IT.
Joe obviously does not have much brain cells left.
He's approaching VERY lo iq level
rumor has it that Palin turned him down.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Pence be like... shitting his pants!
She does stick with her supporters...
Kamala Harris
@KamalaHarris
@JussieSmollett is one of the kindest, most gentle human beings I know. I’m praying for his quick recovery.
This was an attempted modern day lynching. No one should have to fear for their life because of their sexuality or color of their skin. We must confront this hate.
Fucked up coward will soon be crying like the rest of the GOP racists!!!! Maybe rat can say she is not black enough!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! This will play out as the most important choice Americans can make......continue the ignorant trump or move to the next paradigm!!!!!!! Going to be a great comparison of pence and watching paint dry or a vibrant women with a brain....trumps worse nightmare!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous cowardly king obama said...
She does stick with her supporters...
You mean like trump wishing Ghisele the cunt well?????? BWAAAAAAA!!!!
I think Racist roger supported her so I figured she wasn't a real black.
She did manage to take her polling number amongst democrats down to 3% after people across the nation got to know her and before she dropped out.
And she did do a reset on her face.
We'll see if that works !!!
And she's got the VERY lo iq vote locked up
Or was that ZERO iq vote ??
ROFLMFAO !!!
Yuuuuuhhhuuuu!!!!!
Kamala Harris for Vice President!!!!
She will have Mike Pence for breakfast!!!😂❤️❤️❤️
Fucked up coward doing his best projection that only he can rationalize!!!!!!! Yep.....that roger is a real tool.....BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!! And you are just the prince of trump stupidity who can't post a cogent thought......a major league loser!!!!!!
Funny.....both donald and ivanka trump donated to Harris when she ran in Ca!!!!!! WOW and extremely funny!!!!!
She will have Mike Pence for breakfast!!!😂
And he won't even know it!!!!!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
Tulsi kicked her ass. Pence will destroy her.
Pence will be in a coma......!!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!!! She is one tough bitch.........all pence does is fuck up the party line!!!!!! Maybe pence will second when the flu pandemic ended and can say Yo Semite correctly.....LOLOLOLOL
The only better choice Joe could have made for a Trump win would have been Bass.
This is like grooving a fastball belt high down the center of the plate.
Stacy Abrams will now present herself to Joe Biden's basement as the Vice-Presidential candidate.
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