But one also has to factor in the concept that almost every poll being commissioned right now is also asking about Covid, social unrest, and other factors that can inadvertently turn an otherwise well intentioned poll into a push poll. That being said, there is a trend in the past polls released in late July early August:
- CNBC - moved three points towards Trump
- Monmouth - moved two points towards Trump
- Harris - moved seven points towards Trump
- YouGov - moved one point towards Trump
- Rasmussen - moved two points towards Trump
- Emerson - moved two points towards Trump
If you average this out, the past six polls have moved approximately three points towards Trump. This was offset by the addition of a new BattleGround poll with no previous poll to compare to that shows Bide up by a whopping thirteen points (or about double the average). So the RCP average shows only a minor movement towards Trump and from what I heard Nate Silver and 538 is still managing to show Biden "increasing" his lead in spite of no new polls actually showing his lead increasing.
Now obviously if Biden was truly leading by nearly seven points in the average, there would be little question right now about the potential winner and there might actually be a push to have Trump resign and let someone else run. But I think everyone remembers 2016 and instinctively knows that a polling lead right now between 6-7 points is probably not all that it otherwise would be cracked up to be. In fact, if these polls moved just another two or three points we would be sitting almost where we were the week before the 2016 election (with Clinton leading somewhere in the 3-4 point vicinity).
26 comments:
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1293530961150455808?r
So sorry, but this is what you're up against.
She is a cheap Joe.
Daddy Willie called her just another piece of ass.
Biden Favored In New Forecast
August 12, 2020 at 6:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
The new FiveThirtyEight forecast — just launched this morning — gives Joe Biden a 71% chance to defeat Donald Trump in the presidential election.
Nate Silver:
“If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu, it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.) So if you’re not taking a 29 percent chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”
“One last parallel to 2016 — when some models gave Clinton as high as a 99 percent chance of winning — is that FiveThirtyEight’s forecast tends to be more conservative than others.”
James on the other thread you said 2016 has to comparison to 2020.
Now it suddenly does.
President: general election
Aug 9-11, 2020
1,208 RV
YouGov
Biden
49%
Trump
39%
Aug 9-10, 2020
1,983 RV
Morning Consult
Biden
49%
Trump
40%
West
2%
Wis.
Aug 7-9, 2020
384 LV
Change Research
Biden
47%
Trump
43%
Pa.
Aug 7-9, 2020
456 LV
Change Research
Biden
48%
Trump
44%
N.C.
Aug 7-9, 2020
491 LV
Change Research
Biden
47%
Trump
48%
Mich.
Aug 7-9, 2020
413 LV
Change Research
Biden
48%
Trump
43%
Fla.
Aug 7-9, 2020
469 LV
Change Research
Biden
50%
Trump
44%
Ariz.
Aug 7-9, 2020
428 LV
Change Research
Biden
45%
Trump
44%
Aug 7-9, 2020
2,143 LV
Change Research
Biden
50%
Trump
44%
Jorgensen
3%
Hawkins
1%
Mass.
Aug 6-9, 2020
501 LV
MassINC Polling Group
Biden
63%
Trump
27%
Maine
Jul 28-Aug 9, 2020
453 LV
Critical Insights
Biden
45%
Trump
38%
LIIL SCHIET WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD WITH HIS DESPERATE CLAIM OF CLOSING POLLS!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!! Even the most devote trumpists should realize what trouble he is in!!!!!!
How Kamala Harris Helps Biden
August 12, 2020 at 7:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
New York Times:
“By selecting the junior senator from California, a state that Democrats have captured in every presidential election since 1992, Mr. Biden embraced the modern imperatives of Democratic coalition building that have made the days of choosing running mates who could deliver their home states a relic of the past.
“Ms. Harris, who is half Black and half Indian-American, is not expected to scramble the electoral map, nor was the Biden campaign looking to do so. The former vice president leads in polls of most of the crucial battlegrounds.
“Instead, ever since Black voters resurrected his primary candidacy in South Carolina, Mr. Biden and his campaign team have made the pursuit of Black voters in November a centerpiece of his bid for the White House. And he had said from the start of the process that he would chose a woman as his running mate.”
The African American vote is the key this year.
In 16, the turnout was at a record low.
In 12, it was 5% higher
The choice of Harris will get the same of higher turnout in this November that got Obama reelected in 2012, and unless the President succeeds in suppressing turnout, Biden will win by a significant margin.
All Trump has to do is ask minorities who got you jobs, rising wages and prison reform?
‘I’m Ready to Get to Work’
August 12, 2020 at 9:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
Sen. Kamala Harris released a new video about how her mother inspired her decision to become a lawyer and then a politician.
It also includes the moment when Joe Biden offered her the job of being his running mate.
A REALLY GREAT VIDEO. (9:53 ABOVE)
Thoughts on Biden Picking Kamala Harris
August 12, 2020 at 10:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
Mike Allen makes three good points:
“She was always at the top of his list… It says something encouraging about these dire times for America that Joe Biden could both make history by naming the first Black and South Asian woman to a major-party U.S. presidential ticket — and fulfill conventional wisdom at the same time.
“With some of the best connected reporters in the land obsessing about the choice, there was no definitive leak, even at the end — something Biden’s high command is super-proud of.
Amid the chaos and improvisation of the Trump Show, Biden ran an old-school, by-the-book process. His White House would be a similar Return to Normal.
“Biden’s selection process raised the profiles of several other women of color who are now set up to star in a new chapter of American politics.”
All Trump has to do is ask minorities who got you jobs,
Dream on ballz.....ask them what they think of the economy today!!!!!!!
Trump has already called Kamala Harris “nasty” which is apparently his go-to insult for women. Not all women, of course. He’d never say that about his close lady friend who’s in jail for child sex-trafficking.
"I wish her well "
It's not going to work. The unemployment rate among African Americans is at a record high!
Republicans Have Muddled Message on Harris
August 12, 2020 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
First Read:
“Joe Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris to be his vice presidential nominee yesterday made history — and it was also widely viewed in the political world as the likeliest choice. Which is why it’s so surprising that Republicans seemed SO UNPREPARED with a strategy to define her.
“The GOP’s messaging on Harris was mixed from the start.
Is she a finger-in-the-wind pol or a hardened leftist?
Power-hungry or just a ‘puppet’ of radicals?
‘In lockstep’ with Biden
or causing a ‘liberal revolt’ from disappointed progressives?
“Is she actually ‘against everything that Black Americans are screaming about today’ because of her record as a prosecutor?
Or is she soft on crime and ‘marching in the streets with the BLM organization’?
“Republicans have been struggling for months to settle on one coherent argument against Biden. And despite having months to prepare for an argument against his veep, the same muddle is happening with Harris.”
COULDN'T HAPPEN TO A MORE FLUBBED UP PARTY.
U.K. Economy Shrinks More Than Any Other Rich Nation
August 12, 2020 at 7:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
“The U.K. recorded a steeper second-quarter contraction than its peers, a performance that means it suffered the worst economic hit from the coronavirus in Europe as well as reporting the highest death toll,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
White House Admits Less Jobless Aid Than Trump Said
“President Trump’s senior aides acknowledged on Tuesday that they are providing less financial assistance for the unemployed than the president initially advertised amid mounting blowback from state officials of both parties,” the Washington Post reports.
Wall Street Journal: Funding for $300-a-week unemployment benefits could run out in six weeks.
Growing Number Oppose Fully Reopening Schools
August 12, 2020 at 7:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds 59% of Americans said they oppose fully reopening K-12 schools for the beginning of the academic year, up from 53% last month.
IGNORAMUS
Trump Has Nearly Eliminated Intelligence Briefings
August 12, 2020 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard
“President Trump’s interest in taking intelligence briefings has been declining steadily since his first months in office and has dropped to near zero in recent weeks,” according to a HuffPost review of all of his daily schedules.
“Trump went from a high of 4.1 briefings per week on average in March 2017 to 0.7 per week since July 1, shortly after it became public that he had ignored intelligence reports about Russia offering bounties to the Taliban for each American soldier killed in Afghanistan.”
“Monday’s briefing, in fact, was the first in August and the first since July 22. That month had only three briefings scheduled.”
I see the lying POS "pastor" is already over the
Quid Pro Joe
Quid Pro Ho ticket
and back to his GODdard spamming
ROFLMFAO !!!
Unemployment was at record low until we had to shut down the economy. They know that and will remember that.
The new FiveThirtyEight forecast — just launched this morning — gives Joe Biden a 71% chance to defeat Donald Trump in the presidential election.
Imagine how that number might change if the polls move just another couple of points in Trump's favor!
Dementia Joe and his fawning media are acting as if he is already President elect. They are probably pretty disappointed that old Nate Silver still has Trump winning approximately three out of every ten times.
At least Roger and dopey posts their opinions snd own arguments. All James does is copy another blog. I have no time or respect for that.
What are her accomplishments in her current job?
Networks gushing with syrupy sweetness in their coverage of Harris.
She has done what other then have a cervix and skin color?
I remember Five-Thirty gave Clinton a 94% chance on winning on the eve of the 2016 election.
Why is anyone still listening to this guy?
He tells these loons what they want to hear
While trump lies and bullshits his way into your heart, big mouth of the south!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!
In another post the Coldheartedtruth said
Mass incarceration????? Do you believe that the Democrats will build concentration camps and burn million of Republicans???
He posted a tweet that said that the Democrats would build concentration camps and incinerate Republicans if Biden and Harris were elected.
But the tweet was dated in 2018 long before they announced their campaign yesterday!
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