The Powerline had another update on the Covid situation up here in the upper midwest. It's an interesting take if someone wants to check it out. While I have my own numbers, I do like the manner in which they show the mortality rates:
- Iowa: 0.00040
- Minnesota: 0.00036
- North Dakota: 0.00025
- South Dakota: 0.00023
- Wisconsin: 0.00022
The first thing that grabs you is that the mortality rates of Covid are very small. While people tend to like to bring up "big numbers" (like 200,000) without perspective, the fact is that Covid is still not a top killer in our country (and never will be). It doesn't compete with heart disease, cancer, or a variety of other causes of deaths and it is only marginally more dangerous than the flu and less dangerous than pneumonia.
But in the grand scheme of things, Minnesota and Wisconsin are the only states to have done any sort of lock down. However the lock down was cut short and ruled unconstitutional in Wisconsin. So basically Minnesota is the only state of the five to have used the draconian lock down measures associated with most Democratic run states. For what it is worth Minnesota is only doing marginally better than Iowa and considerably worse than the others. All of these states (btw) are under the national average by a considerable margin.
As has been pointed out, with the exceptions of a few states, the entire thing is sort of evening out as we move further into things. Covid (like any virus) will spread more quickly in higher density areas than in other areas. But the other factor that is coming into play here is that there appears to be almost zero empirical evidence across the country that lockdowns have or are working to reduce the spread in states that have used them.
We can argue hypotheticals, predictions, models, and "expert" opinion all we want, but at the end of the day real science must rely on the real data (not opinions). Right now there still remains no real evidence of better Covid "results" for those states that would be deemed to have better Covid "responses". While this may be counterintuitive, it still appears to be the factual truth.
Lastly, while the cause and effect of Covid lock downs seem to have at best a mixed results in terms of controlling Covid, it has had a tangible effect when it comes to our economic situation. Of these states, Minnesota is the only state that has an unemployment rate over 7%.
- Minnesota: 7.4%
- Wisconsin: 6.2%
- Iowa: 6.0%
- North Dakota: 5.0%
- South Dakota: 4.8%
The highest unemployment rates are all tied to Democratic Governors. Nevada (13.2%), Rhode Island (12.8%), New York (12.5%), Hawaii (12.5%), and California (11.4%) are the top five. Hawaii has had 132 deaths and one of the lowest rates of infection in the country? Do you supposed their lock downs were really worth the economic cost?
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REAL EXPERTS:
Experts See Surge In Coronavirus Cases
The number of reported coronavirus cases shot up by at least 10 percent in 21 U.S. states over the past week—and experts are now forecasting that a “huge surge” is expected to take off in the next month, CNN reports.
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REAL, GENUINE EXPERT ROBERT REDFIELD
vs
FALSE, FAKE TRUMP TOADY "EXPERT" ADVISER SCOTT ATLAS
Redfield Says Trump Adviser Is Pushing False Info
CDC Director Robert Redfield has grown increasingly concerned that President Trump, pushed by a new member of his coronavirus task force, Dr. Scott Atlas, is sharing incorrect information about the pandemic with the public, NBC News reports.
Said Redfield: “Everything he says is false.”
CDC director contradicts Trump on coronavirus: 'We're nowhere near the end'
WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The head of a top U.S. government health agency gave a grim assessment of the coronavirus pandemic that contradicts that of President Donald Trump, saying "We're nowhere near the end," NBC News reported on Monday.
Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who has been rebuked by Trump for less-rosy assessments of the coronavirus recovery, also expressed concern that Trump's late addition to the coronavirus task force, Dr. Scott Atlas, is sharing inaccurate information with the president.
"Everything he says is false," Redfield said in a telephone call Friday on a plane from Atlanta to Washington, NBC reported.
Redfield later told NBC the threat from the coronavirus pandemic was far from over, contradicting Trump's assertion as he seeks re-election Nov. 3 that the country was "rounding the corner."
"We're nowhere near the end," Redfield said.
Trump publicly dismissed congressional testimony by Redfield earlier this month on when a vaccine could be broadly rolled out, calling him "confused."
The U.S. president, who was reluctant to urge Americans to wear masks until recently, also criticized Redfield for saying wearing a mask can be just as effective as a vaccine.
The CDC director made his position clear.
"If every one of us did it, this pandemic would be over in eight to 12 weeks," Redfield told NBC.
The CDC did not immediately return a request for comment on Redfield's reported remarks.
Atlas is a neuroradiologist with no background in infectious diseases whose views on handling the coronavirus pandemic have been denounced by his peers at Stanford University's medical school.
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Ch, is this the kind of "expertise" you are proud to promote in your defense of and excuse-making for your idol Trump?
ALBANY - New York saw its coronavirus positivity rate climb to 1.5 percent on Sunday as cases spiked in downstate counties over the weekend, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced on Monday.
Cuomo said the state conducted 52,000 tests Sunday, with 834 coming back positive, marking a positivity rate for the virus at 1.5 percent. The governor said the increase is largely being driven by specific communities in Brooklyn and Orange and Rockland counties.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/New-York-scrutinizes-COVID-19-spikes-in-downstate-15603049.php
the smart money is betting that Killer Cuomo locks us down again before the end of the year.
Lil Schitty with another vain attempt to minimize the Covid crisis because he still thinks it is a hoax and not dangerous to him!!!!!! Again showing little regard for life just like donnie's whose polling is crashing because he don't give a shit!!!!!! Sad Lil Schitty is so wanton in his disregard to suffering of millions of families who have lost loved ones...Sure speaks volumes of the GOP and asshole he supports with his soul!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
First rule of politics Reverend is the same thing as the first rule of sales. It's always easier to convince people of something when there is a built in need, rather than have to convince them first of a need and then a product.
A guy walks into a jewelry store because he wants to become engaged. Pretty good shot at selling a ring to him. A vacuum cleaner knocks on your door in an attempt to convince you that your vacuum is inferior and needs replacing. Much tougher task.
John Kerry ran most of his 2004 campaign trying to first convince people that there were problems that people didn't see, and then convincing them that he could solve them. He was the vacuum cleaner salesman.
The general public has shown in poll after poll after poll that they do not "blame" the President for the Covid virus and instinctively people understand that it's going to run it's course regardless of what people do.
So your point is different than the one I am making.
Most logical people are going to see that no matter what the Governor of their state does, that people are dying from Covid. No matter what country you live in, people are dying of Covid. Covid is not going to go away because you elect a different Governor or President. It's not going away in spite of the fact that 90% of the country are now under mandates to wear masks.
My point is that our overzealous response to Covid has not done much to slow it down (A POINT YOU CONTINUE TO PROVE WITH YOUR LATEST C&P - WHICH I DON'T THINK YOU UNDERSTAND). But it has impacted our economy negatively. More to the point, in every state where the mandates have been lifted, people have been excited and happy to get back out and try to return to some semblance of normalcy. We can poll people who might say one thing, but the proof is in the pudding. People are not staying home when they are no longer forced to.
So while "YOU" might suffer from enough TDS to "blame" the President or suggest that somehow the virus would not have come here and spread if we had a different President...
But there is no "build in reasoning" that the virus will just "go away" if we elect a different leader. You have to "convince" them of that. Shouting about how many people are dead doesn't tell us how you plan to stop it. Every state but 6 have locked down and 90% of the country is still under a mask mandate.
What more is Slow Joe going to suggest?
Hint... he will just blame and point fingers and offer solutions that we are already implementing.
In fact... it could be argued that some (if not many) people are seeing this as Joe Biden trying to score "cheap points" by blaming the President for something out of his control... and specifically blaming a President who took early action that was criticized by Democrats openly Joe Biden himself implicitly as being not necessary.
So go ahead and tell us how things are "still spreading" when everyone is wearing masks, social distancing, etc, etc... and see where that gets you without a plan to fix it.
Covid is not going to go away because you elect a different Governor or President.
true, but as a TOPIC it will go away in an instant if Biden were to manage to win.
question - what did we do 10 years ago with H1N1? answer - not much. 60 MILLION infections and it was "wash your hands and pass the hand sanitizer."
this time around there's much more at stake. we must destroy bad orange man at all costs. and if that means destroying a $23 TRILLION economy and the livelihood of 50 MILLION Americans then so be it.
What a lot of words, Ch.
All your excessive verbiage cannot paper over the simple fact that the American people trust Biden far more than they trust Trump regarding the epidemic because for a long time Trump played down the severity of it and misled the public for the sake of his own personal political reasons and is still trying to do that.
They know Biden will listen to the scientists and be frank with the public about the realities of Covid-19.
Biden Keeps Stable National Lead
A new Monmouth poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race,
50% to 44%.
Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Half the national electorate has been dead set against reelecting the president all along. But that does not mean they have completely gotten behind the challenger, particularly in the most competitive areas of the country.”
Also interesting: “Opinion of the two candidates has been fairly stable in recent polls, but one metric that has been moving is the number of voters who do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. This currently stands at 13% of all registered voters, which is down slightly from 16% in early September and 22% in August.
Biden remains the preferred choice among this group (39% to 24% for Trump).”
Big Majority of Voters Will Watch First Debate
A new Monmouth poll finds 74% of voters plan to watch the first presidential debate live on Tuesday night, although just 3% say that they are very likely to hear something that will impact their eventual vote choice.
In addition, 63% of voters would like to see debate moderator Chris Wallace fact check a candidate who states false information, but Wallace told the New York Times he would instead just try to “be as invisible as possible.”
Biden’s Odds Rise
With just five weeks until Election Day, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gets slightly better for Joe Biden, now giving him a 78% chance to win the presidency.
The Economist forecast gives Biden an 85% chance.
Cindy McCain Joins Biden Transition Team
“Cindy McCain, the wife of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), is joining the board of Joe Biden’s presidential transition team, becoming the second Republican to sign on to formally advise the Democratic nominee as he plans for his possible presidency,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
RCP shows the Monmouth poll at 5% for LV in a four way race- which is down from previous poll by Monmouth. Interesting because traditionally Monmouth has been a source of pain for the President.
They also show Trump with a lead with Independents.
odd, considering just a couple of days ago we had ABC/WaPo and NYT showing Biden leading with Independents by upwards of 20 points.
Obviously one or the other has no clue what is going on, huh?
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