Hybrid average including four way polling when possible
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Biden (D) | Trump (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 9/14 - 9/27 | -- | -- | 48.7 | 43.4 | Biden +5.3 |
| Monmouth* | 9/24 - 9/27 | 809 LV | 3.5 | 50 | 45 | Biden +5 |
| Harvard-Harris | 9/22 - 9/25 | LV | -- | 47 | 45 | Biden +2 |
| NY Times/Siena | 9/22 - 9/24 | 950 LV | 3.5 | 49 | 41 | Biden +8 |
| The Hill/HarrisX | 9/22 - 9/25 | 2768 RV | 1.9 | 45 | 40 | Biden +5 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 9/21 - 9/24 | 739 LV | 4.0 | 50 | 45 | Biden +5 |
| Emerson | 9/22 - 9/23 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 44 | Biden +4 |
| Economist/YouGov | 9/20 - 9/22 | 1124 LV | 3.6 | 49 | 42 | Biden +7 |
| USC Dornsife | 9/14 - 9/27 | 5253 LV | -- | 51 | 43 | Biden +8 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/18 - 9/22 | 889 LV | 3.7 | 50 | 42 | Biden +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/16 - 9/22 | 3000 LV | 2.5 | 48 | 47 | Biden +1 |
22 comments:
BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Biden + 9 in must win Pa......me thinks the polls have not yet reflected the tax and scotus picks and may very well go in the wrong direction for trump!!!! And please.....remove the rassmussen BS....and the biden plus increases significantly.....
STILL BIDEN 353 TRUMP 185 ELECTORAL VOTES
REAL CLEAR POLITICS.COM NO TOSSUP MAP
HOW BIDEN CAN BEAT TRUMP IN THE DEBATE
Biden can beat (and infuriate) Trump by being the adult on the presidential debate stage
Joe Biden’s campaign is based around being calm, rational and a healer. He shouldn't try to call more names or be more pugnacious than Donald Trump.
Chris Truax USA TODAY Opinion columnist
When Donald Trump first exploded on the political scene, he was an unpredictable rule breaker and neither the news media nor anyone else knew how to handle him. But now, we’ve got a much better idea of what makes Trump tick.
First, the Lincoln Project has proved that while President Trump appears formidable, he’s really just a creature of instinct who’s actually both predictable and unable to defend his weak spots once you find them. Pull the right string, and Trump will dance like a cheap marionette and about as gracefully.
Second, as we’ve seen in numerous interviews and a recent disastrous town hall, Trump has a very shallow comfort zone and is quickly out of his depth once he loses control of an interaction. The more you let him talk, especially under pressure, the deeper he will dig his hole. He has even made up what appear to be entirely new policies on the fly to get out of answering an uncomfortable question.
Reduce Trump to apoplexy
Finally, Trump thrives on anger and conflict. There is no margin in getting into a name-calling match with him. He melts down in the face of pity and laughter, however, and refusing to engage will infuriate him.
Rope-a-dope isn’t just for boxing. Sometimes, it’s an effective debate strategy, too. If Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden puts all these pieces together, he has an excellent chance of reducing President Trump to apoplexy.
The first rule is to never rise to the bait and trade insult for insult. Biden’s best tactic is to always be the adult in the room. The first time Trump gets nasty, which will probably be in the first 10 minutes since nasty is Trump’s go-to move, Biden should look directly into the camera and calmly explain, “If insults are what you want from a president, I’m not your candidate. I’m not here to trade insults with President Trump. I’m here to talk about the issues that matter to you, like how we are going to dig out of the coronavirus mess that President Trump has left us in. So let me use my remaining time to talk about that.”
When Trump interrupts, as he inevitably will, Biden should resist the natural urge to talk over him. Instead, after Trump has exhausted himself, Biden should shake his head ruefully and say, “There he goes again,” and then get back to the point he was trying to make when interrupted.
There is the idea out there that forcefully making your point is the key to winning a presidential debate, but that’s not the same thing as being unable to control yourself. Biden’s campaign is based around him being calm, rational, and a healer. He doesn’t win by being more pugnacious than Trump. He wins by being the reasonable adult handling the angry toddler.
Finally, trying to fact-check President Trump is a losing game. As we saw in his town hall meeting, he can make things up faster than anyone can possibly correct him. But there is a more effective strategy that Biden can employ: He can concern-troll the president.
When Trump claims, for example, that Biden wants to defund the police, Biden should turn to the camera and say, “Folks, we have a big problem here. It isn’t that Donald Trump lies all the time. It’s that he genuinely believes his lies are true. I am on record multiple times as being against defunding the police.
"Chris Wallace, our moderator, has pointed that out to him personally, on camera. But Donald Trump still believes it. We have someone sitting in the White House who is so confused that he can’t tell truth from fiction. He does this all the time. I’m afraid we’re likely to see several other examples of the president’s confusion tonight. I am deeply worried about him and I’m deeply worried about this country as long as he is sitting in the Oval Office trying to make decisions.”
Ignoring facts on COVID and his taxes
Trump’s greatest, deepest fear is not being taken seriously, so he won’t enjoy having his attacks dismissed like this. Along the same lines, if Wallace brings up Trump's tax returns, Biden should say, “Look, I don’t blame President Trump for being embarrassed about his tax returns, I would be too, if I were him. But here’s the deal. This is part of a pattern of Trump playing pretend and refusing to face facts.
"Despite six bankruptcies and a taxable income that would qualify him for food stamps, I think President Trump genuinely believes he’s some sort of great businessman, just like he gives himself an A+ for handling the coronavirus pandemic even though we’ve got more than 200,000 dead Americans and rising infection rates. This kind of detachment from reality is killing America and it has to stop.”
There is nothing Joe Biden could possibly say more calculated to rattle the president.
Infiltrating head space
Biden isn’t actually debating Trump on Tuesday night. There are few if any people in America who are trying to choose between the Trump agenda and the Biden agenda. And certainly, no one is going to vote for Biden because he shows he can be just as mean and nasty to Trump as Trump is to him.
There are, however, millions of people trying to decide what kind of president Biden would be and whether they are afraid of him. If Biden can destroy Trump without attacking Trump’s supporters in the process, this election is all over but the voting. And the best way to do that is to let Donald Trump do it himself.
__________
Chris Truax, an appellate lawyer in San Diego and CEO of CertifiedVoter.com, is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors.
i consider all of the polls meaningless at this point. bias drove the polling in '16 causing almost everyone to get it wrong. most VERY wrong. considering the fact that the bias has only worsened in this cycle, i have even less faith in the polls now than i did then.
how anyone who is even a casual observer of politics in this election cycle could pick an obviously mentally incapacitated Biden is truly mind blowing. i watched alzheimer's/dementia take my mom, and what i see when i observe Biden is what i witnessed the final year of her life.
"Trump is cornered."
--Taegan Goddard
Blogger rrb said...
i consider all of the polls meaningless at this point. bias drove the polling in
And I consider your opinion as worthless as tits on a bull.....meaningless and most amusing!!!!!!!!
Iowa and Ohio Are Toss Ups
The Cook Political Report moves Iowa and Ohio into the Toss Up column.
“Iowa and Ohio join Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd CD in Toss Up. That leaves just one state, Texas, in Lean Republican.
"Biden is in the enviable position of not having to win any of those states
to get to 270,
while Trump has to win all of them,
plus another two states (22 Electoral votes)
to win the Electoral College.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
270towin.com
Exclusive: We Have Acquired A Copy Of Joe Biden's Debate Prep Notes
WASHINGTON, D.C.—In a daring feat of undercover journalism, The Babylon Bee's embedded DC reporter has acquired a leaked copy of Joe Biden's debate prep notes. We are proud to introduce them to the world for the first time. Please enjoy. Many undercover journalists died to bring us this information.
Here they are in all their glory
The pictured scan has been translated for you below:
(page 1)
My Debate Notes:
Reminder: You are JOE BIDEN and you are running for PRESIDENT
You're from SCRANTON
You used to be VP with Obama
ORANGE MAN BAD
Answer Key:
Hunter & Ukraine = "Come on, man!"
Taxes & Jobs = "Look, here's the deal."
Emergency use only = "You're a lying, dog-faced pony soldier!"
If you get lost = "You know, the thing!"
Reminders:
Tug on your left ear and Chris Wallace will throw you a softball
Go backstage between commercials for MORE DRUGS!
Don't forget to tell Corn Pop story
Ideas:
Push up contest?
Punching and slapping?
(page 2)
Give the Gettyzburg Address!
(complete transcript of the Gettysburg Address)
My favorite Hair (for inspiration)
(three doodles of women with different hairstyles)
**NO SNIFFING OF HAIR**
(even if you want to)
The Babylon Bee was also able to acquire Trump's debate prep notes, but it was just a napkin on which he had written, "You are amazing, go get 'em tiger!"
*** ANOTHER FANTASTIC MORNING !!! ***
unless you are a depressed lib
LATEST NATIONAL POLL for those obsessed..
ROFLMFAO !!!
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Trump, according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, released exclusively to The Hill one day before the first presidential debate.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 45 percent said they would back Trump. The survey marks a 3-point improvement for Trump and a 2-point decline for Biden from the last poll that was conducted in August.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/518600-biden-holds-narrow-lead-over-trump-ahead-of-first-debate-poll
Lots of dems on pins and needles today, Hunter will probably just be on his needle.
The Babylon Bee was also able to acquire Trump's debate prep notes, but it was just a napkin on which he had written, "You are amazing, go get 'em tiger!"
Correction: That was a reporters note for the Biden press conference later if he is not whisked away.
want to see what the polls really say?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
want to see what the polls really say?
top battleground states
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
want to see what the polls really say?
latest betting odds
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
want to see what the polls really say?
this STILL hasn't changed:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
ELECTORAL VOTES, NO TOSS UPS:
BIDEN 353 TRUMP 185
Looks like the lying POS "pastor" james is REAL NERVOUS about the LATEST poll.
Heard Rasmussen is improving today also...
ROFLMFAO !!!
Oh, and "pastor" I don't think Joe is looking here for your advice on what to do at the debate.
No one here even listens to you
ROFLMFAO !!!
BETTER NOT WATCH THIS, F/N
IT MAY HAVE YOU ROLLING ON THE FLOOR WEEPING
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe
ROFL
Anonymous Caliphate4vr said...
Exclusive: We Have Acquired A Copy Of Joe Biden's Debate Prep Notes
And the mouth of the south continues to post drivel that only he thinks is funny......BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Gotta suck to be a salesman with a pandemic going on.....!!!!
New Battleground State Polls
From Washington Post-ABC News:
THIS IS THE BIG ONE:
PENNSYLVANIA:
Biden 54%, Trump 45%
From Susquehanna Polling & Research:
ALSO
FLORIDA:
Biden 46%, Trump 43%
WISCONSIN:
Biden 48%, Trump 46%
PPP me, says the Donald.
Debate Is Trump’s Last Chance to Define Biden
Associated Press:
“The president’s attacks on Biden have been scattershot and inconsistent, frustrating some Republicans who believe he has squandered repeated opportunities to define his rival. His efforts to move past the coronavirus pandemic and onto issues he views as more favorable for his reelection prospects, including law enforcement and the economy, have failed to convince many voters that the public health crisis is any less of a concern or that his leadership during the pandemic has been effective.
“Even Trump’s rollout of Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his Supreme Court nominee on Saturday, a pick aimed at energizing conservative voters, was overshadowed the very next day by bombshell revelations in The New York Times about his personal finances.”
PPP me, says the Donald.
Tax Returns Become a Late Addition to Debate Stage
“Donald Trump and Joe Biden kick off their first debate today with contentious topics like the Supreme Court and the coronavirus pandemic suddenly joined by yet another potentially explosive question — whether the president ducked paying his taxes,” Bloomberg reports.
“For Biden, the report that Trump minimized his tax bill allows him to draw a distinction, in his words, ‘between Scranton and Park Avenue’ — his symbols for abundant wealth and the working-class environment into which he was born in Pennsylvania.
“For Trump, spokesman Hogan Gidley said, the campaign welcomes a discussion on taxes — even if it’s about the candidate avoiding paying them — so the Trump camp can highlight what it says is Biden’s plan to raise taxes once in office.”
Vanessa Williamson:
Biden could use Trump’s returns to shift the debate on taxes.
PPP me, says the Donald.
State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead
Alan Abramowitz:
“In 2016, Donald Trump shocked the political world by pulling off a victory in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by more than two percentage points. The key to his victory was winning several large swing states including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by very narrow margins. Based on recent polling data, however, Trump appears unlikely to duplicate his 2016 feat. He is currently trailing in every 2016 swing state, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, although the margin in Florida is very close. Meanwhile, he is being forced to invest time and money defending several states that he won easily in 2016. In contrast, Joe Biden appears to be comfortably ahead in every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
“Barring a major comeback in the final weeks of the campaign or very large and systematic polling errors, the incumbent appears to be headed for a decisive defeat in both the popular vote and the electoral vote.”
POOR, POOR PITIFUL ME,
says the Donald.
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