The Two polls provided the following Demographic breakdown:
(YouGov followed by USC)
- Democrats - Biden 91-4 & Biden 92-4
- Republicans - Trump 91-6 & Trump 89-7
- Independents - Biden 41-40 & Biden 44-38
In 2016, the partisan breakdown ended up being 36% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 31% Independents. This was not an usual breakdown and in fact has been fairly close to average going back over the past few Presidential races. While election projection experts have demanded for years that the country is trending Democrat, this simply doesn't seem to come to fruition when push comes to shove.
If you simply take those numbers and put them into a spreadsheet that would show the results (based on the 2016 electorate) you get Biden leading Trump by approximately 3.6 in the You Gov poll and 6.5 in the USC poll. Those two polls average out to a Biden lead of five points, or quite literally half of what the top lines are providing us.
How is this possible?
Well the YouGov poll managed to accumulate a sample that only had 26% of the respondents being Republican, while 41% of them were Democrats. That is a 15 point demographic advantage for the Democrats that simply does not exist in real life. Even the 2018 election - that went so well for Democrats - fell right into generic line with 37-33-30 breakdown, which was a whopping one percent more Democrats and one percent less independents than the 2016.
Given that voter enthusiasm has been measured as sky high with Republicans and Trump supporters and luke warm for Democrats and Biden supporters, it would seem highly improbable for the partisan breakdown to be unconventionally (and spectacularly) out of the mainstream in favor of Democrats.
But yet, that is what we are supposed to believe, if we are to believe that Joe Biden is really leading Trump by these large numbers. To be clear, I don't believe it would be a bridge too far to suggest that most of these pollsters are coming out with numbers right now that simply don't reflect reality and that the Biden polling leads are being inflated by a significant margin by bad sampling.
Is Biden ahead? Sure... probably.
But not by the seven points that RCP and 538 are showing in their polling averages, and certainly not by the double digit amounts that these latest polls show. If I had to make a calculated guess, I would say he is likely up by roughly 4%-5% or so. Which means Biden is still dangerously close to that place where he wins the popular vote, but could still lose the electoral vote.
Oh, and we haven't had the debates yet. Right now, this same polling shows that most voters are not buying the idea that Biden has any sort of cognitive issues what-so-ever. In fact, I have seen multiple polls that give alertness and cognitive advantages to the Vice President over Trump. This tells me that the media has done it's job of covering for the Vice President, who has yet to give any post Covid live interviews with anyone remotely unfriendly, and is still refusing to answer any questions from anyone.
If Biden were to flounder or otherwise not look sharp in these debates, then that could go a long way to that line of attack becoming more successful. That is the sort of thing that could really snowball and make the public demand he come out of his studios and stop reading from teleprompters... which I honestly don't believe he is capable of doing.
21 comments:
Scott you believe that the MSM is out to defeat Trump.
Gezzzzz
Insanity
This tells me that the media has done it's job of covering for the Vice President
They covered up Biden but they attacked the President.
Discrediting the free press is a characteristic example of how dictators have gained power
I could give you a link to a site where a person who grew up in a South American country, where dictators gained power and kept it.
But you won't watch it because it provides a different perspective from your perspective
“The military is not stupid. When the military is in Syria, in Mali, in Somalia, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, the military knows. Hey, we’re here, Mr. President!” says Col. Lawrence Wilkerson on Trump’s false claim that he ended “endless wars.”
Fake News Robotics inc.!
President Trump trails Democratic nominee Joe Biden by eight points in the key battleground state of Wisconsin.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin shows Biden with 51% support to Trump’s 43%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.
With only 2% undecided favors Biden.
Is it slanted to the Democrats?
I could give you a link to a site where a person who grew up in a South American country, where dictators gained power and kept it.
The dictators are always the ones who control the media and the national narrative provided by the media.
So if there is any sort of dictatorship here in America, it isn't being run by Donald Trump or the Republicans.
You really believe that the free press is a deep state conspiracy to defeat Trump again.
You have lost your mind Scott!
Your logic made my point
The President has encouraged double voting
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Tuesday that 1,000 Georgians voted twice in the state’s June 9 primary, a felony that he said will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
These voters submitted absentee ballots but also voted in person, a problem that happened across 100 Georgia counties, and election officials didn’t catch them in time to keep the second votes from being tallied, Raffensperger announced during a press conference outside the state Capitol.
RELATED: Absentee ballot rejections could triple in battleground states
“A double voter knows exactly what they’re doing, diluting the votes of each and every voter that follows the law,” Raffensperger said. "Those that make the choice to game the system are breaking the law. And as secretary of state, I will not tolerate it.”
It was not immediately clear whether the outcome of any races may have been affected.
Raffensperger said his office’s investigators will hand the findings over to the state attorney general and local district attorneys for possible prosecution. Double voting is a felony that is punishable by one to 10 years in prison and a fine of up to $100,000, Raffensperger said.
As the President was getting ready to fly to Florida, he said that the Fake news was lying about everything he has done.
You echoed the President, like a cultist.
Michael Cohen will be interviewed by Lester Holt on NBC news tonight.
I'm sure that you believe that it is the deep state conspiracy theory, that includes the national networks, except Fox news.
I'm not joking you need help
Dead Heat In Florida
September 8, 2020 at 1:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Florida finds Joe Biden tied with Donald Trump, 48% to 48%.
The key takeaway is that Biden is underperforming among Latinos (vs. Hillary Clinton four years ago), while Trump is underperforming among seniors.
The poll is more confirmation that Florida is a Toss Up.
Trump Using Same Playbook That Didn’t Work In 2018
2:10 pm EDT
New York Times:
“President Trump is using a fear-based playbook that is as familiar to him as it is questionable in actually helping Republicans get elected in recent years. Some of the players have changed — instead of MS-13 gang members and migrant caravans, now there are rioters and looters — but the target audience and themes are the same: Suburban communities that he claims Democrats won’t keep safe. The president is even reusing phrases and imagery from 2018, with slogans like ‘jobs not mobs’ and ads showing Democratic politicians and liberal figures kneeling during the national anthem.
“Democrats can point to the 41 House seats they picked up in 2018 to show that the Republican strategy did not work then, and that voters were more concerned about health care than havoc. Even Republicans say there is no solid evidence in their polling that proves the president’s tactics are helping him today.”
Washington Post:
Trump employs images of violence as political fuel for reelection fight.
Eight weeks from today we have the opportunity to choose democracy over creeping authoritarianism.
Dignity and respect over corruption and lawlessness.
Building back better over continued chaos.
A plan over a pandemic.
Unity over division.
Joe Biden over Donald Trump.
Scott says it's Fake news Robotics inc. To defeat Trump
Former Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly aka the ho criticized Sen. Kamala Harris for saying she was “proud” of Jacob Blake during a meeting with him in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Kelly is now facing her own backlash over the comment that read: "PROUD of him?... How about a word for his victim, Senator?"
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/515455-megyn-kelly-slams-kamala-harris-for-saying-shes-proud-of-jacob-blake
“Donald Trump will do anything and everything within which to win. And I believe that includes manipulating the ballots,” Cohen said. “I believe that he would even go so far as to start a war in order to prevent himself from being removed from office. My biggest fear is that there will not be a peaceful transition of power in 2020.”
His pathological supporters will take arms.
Miami Herald reporting that Trump now leading among area Latinos.
Huh.
Yep ball less......complete panic setting in even if Cubans support him....biden is still in the lead....give trump more time and I am sure he will continue to step on his dick!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
You really believe that the free press is a deep state conspiracy to defeat Trump again.
I just accept the reality that the mainstream media is pro-Biden and anti-Trump. To refuse to accept that reality is silly.
Obviously the deep state has nothing to do with the media, so I am not sure where your drunken brain picked that up from.
To suggest that it's a "conspiracy" is a matter of semantics. I don't believe that the media makes much of a point of hiding their disdain of Trump or are necessarily meeting behind closed doors to plan things.
They simply are going to provide cover for Biden and continue to be hard on Trump. Nothing new.
I just accept the reality that the mainstream media is pro-Biden
Opinions are like assholes and you have a gapping one.....BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Some media is biased......but IMHO....they are doing what they do best reporting without bias all of trumps deeds accurately ...If trump shut the fuck up and stopped tweeting inanity, the coverage would be a whole lot different....But dorothy.....the country is burning and trump is the POTUS with an absolute lack of direction except blaming others....The MSM reports all the accurately....Trump is his own worst enemy and deserves the coverage he is getting....Even Fox can't hide him any more;.... Now you got DeJoy illegally reimbursing his people to support trump....is that MSM inflating the story???????? God you need help!!!
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