The IBD/TIPP polls was considered one of the most accurate from 2016, with a final poll showing Clinton with a one point lead over Trump. In fact, IBD/TIPP was actually one of only two polls (the other being the LA Times tracking poll) more favorable to Trump than the final result indicated.
So from a historical standpoint it is not surprising to see IBD/TIPP showing a result more favorable to Trump than other polls are showing. If you sort of toggle this IBD/TIPP lead between two and three points back and forth with the other pollsters showing a bigger lead, we may end up right back to where I had originally suggested this race might be a few weeks ago (between 3-5 points nationally for Biden).
If historical trends hold in 2020, we will also see a consolidation of pollsters generally coming together in the final week to ten days of polling. Hillary peaked with a national lead just over 7% about this time in 2016 (Oct 19th) and then saw that lead diminish down to a final average of 3.2% . That consolidation (as it seems to do) confused most of the pundits and poll watchers. Most attempted to blame it on events (such as the Comey email letter or rumored Clinton health problems). But I still tend to believe that this consolidation has been an inevitable trend, and that it usually moves towards the Republican in the last couple of weeks.
Certainly I cannot not sure that this will happen again in 2020. But even Biden's own team very recently suggested that these double digit polls are inaccurate and that they believe that their candidate is in a close race (I believe "very close" was the exact term used). While this might just be a ploy to keep their supporters engaged, I tend to believe that their internals (especially in the key battleground states) are probably showing things much closer than the media polling.
23 comments:
'Hope springs eternal within each human breast.'
Keep desperately holding to your hope, Ch. Meanwhile so many GOPers on the Hill are despairing.
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Keep playing with yourself Lil Schitty.....gotta suck to me an R with so little hope to make trump look good!!!!!! LOLOLOLOL Getting high on trump is all you have left!!!
It has narrowed up a little bit. But Biden is competitive in red states at levels not seen since 1976 when Jimmy Carter was elected President.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html
I rather like the latest tilt in the Florida polling.
Without Florida, Trump cannot win.
Without Florida, Biden still has numerous paths to victory.
This is weird Scott.
While this might just be a ploy to keep their supporters engaged, I tend to believe that their internals (especially in the key battleground states) are probably showing things much closer than the media polling.
The media polls have been very careful, and have changed their methods in response to the errors in 2016.
It has narrowed up a little bit. But Biden is competitive in red states at levels not seen since 1976 when Jimmy Carter was elected President.
Oh great and exalted historian please refer to Bubba’s re-election in 96
Fucking idiot
Actually Bubba did pretty good in 92
Language on this thread has been civil until....
President Obama is going to conduct a drive up campaign appearance today in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania. African American turnout is critical.
Another trump myth shot to hell......BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!! Rat blows another fuse!!!!! LOLOLOL
By
Nick Miroff
Oct. 21, 2020 at 9:56 a.m. EDT
Add to list
Cities that have adopted “sanctuary” policies did not record an increase in crime as a result of their decision to limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities, according to a new Stanford University report. The findings appear to rebut the Trump administration’s rhetoric about the policies’ dire effects on public safety.
The study is one of the first to measure those effects by looking at data on violent crime and property crime. Researcher David K. Hausman compared statistics across more than 200 sanctuary counties and jurisdictions between 2010 and 2015, when the policies were adopted in many U.S. cities with a large number of residents living in the country illegally.
The data show that the policies were effective at limiting deportations of nonviolent offenders but did not result in higher crime rates in those cities. And Hausman found that violent criminals continued to be deported at the same pace because the sanctuary policies do little to prevent U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials from taking those offenders into custody.
I'm sure Ch would not object to our looking at that latest IBD/TPP poll in context:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Also, I keep waiting for THIS to change, as the race "tightens up" and "tightens up."
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
The media polls have been very careful, and have changed their methods in response to the errors in 2016.
yeah, careful to OVERsample Dems +8 or more.
LOL.
It’s an implicit reminder that, of the three Rust Belt states that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 — the other two being Michigan and Wisconsin — Pennsylvania remains the biggest and most critical to Biden’s chances of victory.
“One, without Pennsylvania, mathematically, the president has no path to 270. And two, it’s a state that is in play but the former president remains intensely popular,” said Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. “His ability to draw attention and energize is certainly unparalleled by any other Democrat.”
Politico reported
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by more than 6 percentage points among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new survey of the swing state that could determine the outcome of the White House race.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll released Wednesday reports that 48.6 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters prefer the Democratic nominee, while 42.4 percent favor the Republican incumbent.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/21/biden-leads-trump-pennsylvania-430730
The President can't win without Pennsylvania.
Pope Francis, who since the beginning of his pontificate has taken a more tolerant tone toward homosexuality, appeared to break with the position of the Roman Catholic Church by supporting civil unions for same-sex couples, according to remarks Francis made in a new documentary that debuted in Rome on Wednesday.
Speaking about pastoral outreach and care for people who identified as L.G.B.T., Francis directly addresses the issue of civil unions in the film.
“What we have to create is a civil union law. That way they are legally covered,” Francis said amid remarks in which he otherwise reiterated his support for gay people as children of God. “I stood up for that.”
Jimmy can come out!
As I say on the next thread,
one can always go to the pollsters who got it wrong before, especially the more notable ones, and read THEIR explanations as to why they feel they are not that far off this time. One will notice that they do, however, admit they could be wrong; they just don't think they are
-- not this time.
The President can't win without Pennsylvania.
Nor can he win without Florida.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
President Obama is going to conduct a drive up campaign appearance today in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.
huh.
a black guy doin' a drive by.
seems so... fitting. and stereotypical.
LOL.
Jimmy can come out!
gee alky, why would you consider being gay a slur like that?
i mean, it's like when you call black people negroes.
very insulting.
oh, and for the record... i've been coming out as heterosexual on every single coming out day since the inaugural day in 1988.
LOL.
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