After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.
So one doesn't have to spend much time reading between the lines here to understand that John Hopkins is not suggesting that their study was wrong. Certainly nobody would ever suggest that one of the top medical research facilities in the world (and a leader in Covid research) would publish a study on something this serious that would have made any sort of real errors. What John Hopkins is saying is that they simply do not like how some have "used" the study to reinforce the concept that we are overcounting Covid deaths to make it appear worse than it is.
So they removed all of the research and conclusions drawn from their website. I would guess that it is unlikely that they will actually be doing further research or drawing any additional conclusions for any public consumption.
_______
Currently the CDC website shows that the number of deaths is running about 12% higher than the number of "expected deaths". That being said, that percentage suggests that the number of "expected deaths" would fall well below where it was in the last year (2018) that the CDC appears to have full mortality statistics. Taking the CDC 12% in absolute statistical terms, they appear to be suggesting that the number of expected deaths would be in 2.66 million range. That would be a drop of about 180,000 deaths from the 2018 number of 2.84 million. Not sure where that number comes from, but it seems wildly flawed at first glance.
Either way... doing some fairly simple raw analysis of the numbers so far, adding some projected lagging numbers for the previous weeks, and providing for a fairly robust guess at how many people will pass over the last five weeks of the year, it looks like 2020 will come in right around 3 million. This is an increase over the 2018 mortality count by approximately 5%.
_______
Meanwhile, the John Hopkins study appeared to have been concentrating on percentages rather than raw numbers. So as the percentage of older people increases (and it is increasing at a fast rate as the boomers hit their twilight years) it only makes sense that the raw number of deaths within that age group would increase even if the percentages stay the same. The same can be true for all age groups as population growth will quite obviously lead to higher raw number of deaths.
What the study concluded (based on what was captured and saved) suggests that while Covid deaths have obviously disproportionately affected the elderly, that the mortality percent in those age groups has not actually increased. What they found was that the rise in Covid deaths among the elderly correlates to an inverse proportionate percentage decrease in other types of deaths.
Now quite obviously this will lead to a fairly easy to reach conclusion that Covid deaths are being overstated, and that in normal years that many of these same death certificates would have been assigned to something else (heart disease, respiratory illness, pneumonia). While this conclusion really isn't proven by this particular study, it lends itself to it sort of intuitively.
The fact that people were using their study to promote this technically unproven (but extremely intuitive) conclusion is apparently what led John Hopkins into removing the study. I guess it's now the right of the scientific community to censor any use of a study that seems out of touch with current politics. Even if common sense lends itself to that use.
_______
Bottom line: Unless something unusual happens between now and the end of the year, we will likely see an increase of deaths over the 2018 numbers of between 140,000-150,000. Many will want to blame any increase in deaths solely on Covid. But common sense tells us that at least some of this will be due to population growth and a growing percentage of elderly people who have a higher mortality rate.
The John Hopkins study seems to suggest that population growth and a growing percentage of elderly people is responsible for much (if not all) of it.
56 comments:
one can only conclude that this was censored for political reasons as i couldn't find a flaw in the data or the conclusions derived from it.
so what we know for sure is that JH, who is supposed the be the repository for all things covid-related, has let the mask slip just enough for us to realize that we are being conned.
watch this before it get's pulled:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TKJN61aflI&feature=youtu.be
JHU Advanced Academic Programs
2.87K subscribers
The MS in Applied Economics hosted a friendly conversation on a morose topic on November 11, 2020. This presentation was led by Dr. Genevieve Briand, MS in Applied Economics Assistant Program Director. Genevieve went over where the data could be accessed and downloaded. Together with her, event attendees were invited to think critically about the data presented. This webinar looked at very simple statistics; nonetheless, it shed light on the COVID-19 situation.
Another thing to consider...
the average life expectancy is about 79 years old.
Go back 79 years ago and our average population increase was almost 2,000,000 a year. The fact that we are expecting a "decrease" in the amount of deaths between 2018 and 2020 is amazing considering we would have about 4,000,000 more people above that mean number in 2020 than we did in 2018.
Aging is the reason for the 250,000 deaths and the covid-19 is a Democratic hoax!
You have lost your mind Scott.
The CDC and every other major medical organizations are participating in the deep state conspiracy to destroy the Orange Monster.
That's the bottom line under your 700 word diatribes.
Indy is right about you, you have lost your mind Scott.
According to Scott
The 13,182,692 Confirmed cases are fake.
and the
265,000 deaths are the result of age,not the covid-19 virus.
Because John Hopkins has a political bias against the Orange Monster
Lack of common sense tells us that at least some of this will be due to population growth and a growing percentage of elderly people who have a higher mortality rate.
The John Hopkins study seems to suggest that population growth and a growing percentage of elderly people is responsible for much (if not all) of it.
They were out to get the Orange Monster out of office!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm laughing out loud at you Scott!
Cue the mentally disabled old man.
When people like you are proven wrong, you lash out in anger.
Get help before you commit suicide.
"
Roger AmickNovember 28, 2020 at 12:55 PM
Aging is the reason for the 250,000 deaths"
Yes, it is a major contributor, according to the CDC.
The idea that a death certificate with ailments listed in addition to COVID-19 means that the person did not really die from the virus is simply false.
The idea that a death certificate with age as the cause of death only, to say that COVID-19 means that the person did not really die from the virus is simply false,
COVID-19 Is Now the Third Leading Cause of Death in the U.S.
It kills more people than the flu, and aging contrary to Trump’s claims, and also surpasses stroke, Alzheimer’s and diabetes.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s1/
Spanking .
😷Republicans have picked up their 11th seat overall in the U.S. House and the third seat in California😷
FALSE PANDEMIC DATA ON SOCIAL MEDIA COMPLICATES the medical system
But Scott asshole doesn't give a fuck
Roger fears dying alone.
Hey Alky the CDC is still saying you’re full of shit
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities, Socrata icon Click here to download.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Briand concludes that the COVID-19 death toll in the United States is misleading and that deaths from other diseases are being categorized as COVID-19 deaths.
There have reports of inflated COVID-19 deaths numbers for months. Patients who never tested positive for the disease had COVID-19 as their cause of death on their death certificates. In May, Jared Polis, the Democrat governor of Colorado, disputed official coronavirus death counts, saying even those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were inflated from including people who tested positive for the coronavirus but died of other causes. In July, a fatal motorcycle accident victim was listed as a COVID-19 death.
On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”
They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative.
This determination to put theory before the facts is truly malign -- JR
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-study-saying-covid-19-has-relatively-no-effect-on-deaths-in-u-s-deleted-after-publication-n1178930
ALLOW,really, gutless Socialist confirm or else.
"“The temporary order will be in place for three weeks through Dec. 20 and will allow essential and emergency workers, and those securing or providing essential and permitted services, to leave their homes,” KTLA reported.
LA County.
Roger , you live in LA County?
25 million Americans died while Obama was president.
Longevity did drop during the Lost years.
Where Scott plagiarism was born
I guess Ch is trying to tell us that there is nothing unusual in the fact that hospitals in the U.S. are experiencing dire problems of overflowing and either hardly having or not having enough beds.
I guess Ch is trying to tell us that we have, as Trump said, "turned the corner" on this virus thing and there is really nothing unusual happening at all.
I guess Ch has rocks in his head.
James is "cordless"? He seems very well connected to me.
A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19
By YANNI GU | November 27, 2020
Editor’s Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.
We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.
In accordance with our standards for transparency, we are sharing with our readers how we came to this decision. The News-Letter is an editorially and financially independent, student-run publication. Our articles and content are not endorsed by the University or the School of Medicine, and our decision to retract this article was made independently.
Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.
Briand also claimed in her analysis that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may be incorrectly categorized as COVID-19-related deaths. However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.
Because of these inaccuracies and our failure to provide additional information about the effects of COVID-19, The News-Letter decided to retract this article. It is our duty as a publication to combat the spread of misinformation and to enhance our fact-checking process. We apologize to our readers.
Scott should apologize to our readers.
This is from John Hopkins University.
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
25 million Americans died while Obama was president.
Hey lil schitty and rat........you getting tired of winning yet??????
Johns Hopkins proved that CH is a very crazy asshole.
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Because John Hopkins has a political bias against the Orange Monster
Roger...
You realize that the John Hopkins study was just confirming what many people suspected. That the rise in Covid related deaths have been offset by a decrease in other types of reasons.
The study did not hold a bias against "the bad orange man". But rather it appeared to back up the theories from conservatives that Covid is being overstated by political reasons.
The study was pro-Covid skeptics.
The decision to remove that study was pro-Covid alarmists.
I really don't believe you have the cognitive ability to actually understand any of this stuff anymore. I say "anymore" because you used to be someone I just disagreed with... not someone who literally has to be corrected on fact over and over and over again.
If he comes back here he will say that I'm demented. Losers act like that. I suspect he was a bully in grand school
Every single day the core-less James runs in breathlessly and violates his self stated conduct standards.
Pity upon him.
😆grand school🤣
According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.
Yet we are on pace to only have about 140,000 more deaths than we had two years ago (the last time the CDC has a complete mortality rate).
Does it appear odd to you, Reverent... that somehow the CDC expected about 160,000 "less" people to die in 2020 than died in 2018?
Does it appear odd that given the aging population and population growth in question that an average increase of deaths by 70,000 / year is considered grossly excessive?
But rather it appeared to back up the theories from conservatives that Covid is being overstated by political reasons.
You made my point.
I was right a minute ago again
If he comes back here he will say that I'm demented. because I proved that you were wrong about death related to the covid virus.
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
The decision to remove that study was pro-Covid alarmists.
You made my point again, by claiming the pro-Covid alarmist is a Democrat who hates the President .
You don't have the cognitive ability to actually understand any of this stuff anymore.
Indyvoter2 is correct
However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.
And they would anyway, the old and sickly die.
That’s the way it is
But rather it appeared to back up the theories from conservatives that Covid is being overstated by political reasons.
BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!! Since conservatives have lots of problems with both science and facts the fall back is always political since it is simple for the simple minded like you!!!!....Surprised you have not blamed the D's for a nazi comment!!!!!!!!!! History will write the trump blew it and there are many who died because of his inaction.... No matter how much you opine, people are dying from Covid and you think that is fine because most were infirmed and old anyway.....the amusing part Lil Schitty you are right on the cusp of being one of those!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!! Wearing masks should not be political but your fat ass in chief made it so.....Idiots like you tempting fate because you FEEL they don't work embrace the suck!!!!!!
Indy is right about you, you have lost your mind Scott.
alky,
you bring up indy on every thread as if you matter to him or he matters to the rest of us.
you don't and he doesn't.
and let me remind you mr. indy fanboi, that it was indy himself who called you A FUCKING MORON on this very blog.
HOW THE COVID NUMBERS WORK:
On Tuesday night, in his first debate with President Donald Trump, Joe Biden claimed "200,000 dead, 7 million infected [with the coronavirus] in the United States. We have 5 percent, 4 percent of the world population; 20 percent of the deaths."
It is a theme that Biden has repeatedly raised. But it isn't true. It is better than his typical approach of not accounting for the population's size in the United States relative to other countries. But it ignores the unreliable COVID-19 data from other large countries, most notably China and Russia, which have underreported infections and deaths. More importantly, Biden's claim doesn't acknowledge that the U.S. counts coronavirus deaths differently from other countries. Indeed, we are counting deaths differently than we have for any other disease.
"The case definition is very simplistic," Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. "It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of [a] clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death."
The CDC currently puts the number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at 204,000. But even the "best estimate" 0.26 percent fatality rate is a significant overestimate because of how the CDC counts deaths. And though public health officials have been transparent about how they are counting coronavirus deaths, the implications for calculating the infection fatality rate often go unstated.
Medical examiners from Colorado to Michigan use the same definition Ezike described. In Macomb and Oakland Counties in Michigan, where most of the deaths in that state occurred, medical examiners classify any death as a coronavirus death when the postmortem test is positive. Even people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that definition.
Such expansive definitions are not the fault of rogue public health officials. The rules direct them to do this. "If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death," White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx noted multiple times.
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-got-coronavirus-death-toll-wrong-opinion-1535367?fbclid=IwAR2CX_1xDhNASmo9wz69bbwEvBP7L3SS_-RoUfwwxSeQellRGunFh4VFcHs
h/t: glenn reynolds
Exactly,
"alky,
you bring up indy on every thread as if you matter to him or he matters to the rest of us.
you don't and he doesn't."
Wow....rat the flaming rectum does not like the way Covid mortality is counted.....BWAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Like Lil Schitty, I am sure your opinion will have no bearing on anyone but yourself with your pious GOP views. Does it really make a difference that dead is dead????? Brix works for trump BTW......Do you really think they test for Covid for a suicide???? Or an auto accident....IOW's a bullshit argument with no merit!!!!!
Scott, John Hopkins University said that your post is incorrect. That the virus was not the cause of death. That was what you said.
Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic.
total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage,
Years ago I used to check out the Drudge report for his post
But since Matt Drudge has divorced from Trump he goes to redstate of pjmedia
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics
Johns Hopkins Study Saying COVID-19 Has 'Relatively No Effect on Deaths' in U.S. Spiked After Publication
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics
His headline
Johns Hopkins Study Saying COVID-19 Has 'Relatively No Effect on Deaths' in U.S. Deleted After Publication
Hilarious with trump now in his final days.....Lil Schitty and rat have so little to do they want to hone in on the exact number of people killed by a virus....I guess when you are losing you pick a subject that has little relevance to anyone but themselves!!!! bWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
Bottom line to both the Reverend and Roger...
The time for Yanni Gu to have attempted to discredit or otherwise undermine the study that they posted on the John Hopkins site would have been "prior" to them releasing the study.
If there were problems with the study, then they either should not have published it, or at the very least included disclaimers, etc.. at the time if was published.
But they didn't.
Moreover, the fact that someone is not a "doctor" or "medical researcher" is irrelevant to whether or not they can read data or otherwise analyze data. I am fairly confident that someone with a healthy knowledge of (and advanced degrees in) applied economics is up to the task of analyzing data.
To "retract" the study ONLY after they got complaints that it was being used by Covid-skeptics sort of speaks for itself.
New CDC research says that only a small fraction of Americans who have caught COVID-19 actually received a diagnosis with a coronavirus test.There have been 13 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US so far, but the CDC estimates that the actual figure is much higher.The CDC says that as many as 100 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus so far.
The US has reached 13 million confirmed COVID-19 cases as of Friday morning, but that figure might be significantly lower than the actual number of people who have been infected by the novel coronavirus in the country. Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a study that says that only about one in eight COVID-19 infections were identified and reported from February to September. The figure has improved from a previous 1 in 10 estimate that the CDC had previously issued. But if this latest data is accurate, it helps explain the current skyrocketing numbers because most cases are not confirmed with a proper COVID-19 test.
The CDC researchers estimated that about 52.9 million Americans had been infected in the US by the end of September. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is only 6.9 million for the period. “This indicates that approximately 84% of the U.S. population has not yet been infected and thus most of the country remains at risk, despite already high rates of hospitalization,” the researchers wrote.
Extrapolating from the data and assuming the ratio still holds, NPR concluded that the new estimates that more than 95 million Americans have been infected with the novel coronavirus so far.
Nearly 100 million infections is a scary figure, but what’s even scarier is that about 71% of the population remains uninfected and is therefore at risk of contracting the illness. COVID-19 has been spreading at record speed, with the US registering new daily records for infections and hospitalizations throughout most of November. That also means we’re still far from approaching herd immunity. To achieve herd immunity for COVID-19, scientists estimate that 70% of the population would have to be immune, either from exposure to the pathogen or by getting vaccinated.
A different model said a few days ago suggested that America’s COVID-19 caseload might double in two months to more than 20 million confirmed cases. If the CDC 8-to-1 ratio still holds, that would mean that as many as 160 million Americans might get the illness by then. Public health experts expect Thanksgiving to fuel another massive spike in the US, with numbers expected to skyrocket even further in the coming weeks.
The CDC model does make it clear that many of COVID-19 cases go unreported, especially asymptomatic and mild cases. But the study also pointed out that even hospitalized cases aren’t always confirmed with a test. The researchers estimated that only 1 of every 2.5 hospitalized infections were reported officially by the end of September.
“These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning,” the researchers conclude.
I'm not confident that someone with a healthy knowledge of (and advanced degrees in) applied economics is up to the task of analyzing data about highly complex medical conditions, devices, immunity, virus infections, lung functions, liver functions, diabetes, alzheimers, mental syndrome and disease, the effectiveness of masking, social distancing, obesity, because of his political agenda.
https://bgr.com/2020/11/27/coronavirus-cases-usa-true-count-100-million-model/
someone with a healthy knowledge of (and advanced degrees in) applied economics is up to the task of analyzing data, uses Pjmedia data to determine whether or not a highly respected John Hopkins University was politically motivated to damage the President's election.
The feeble minded old man is signing off for the night.
Post a Comment