How about a D minus?
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So to recap:
- Out of the Likely Democrat Cook missed 2 GOP pick ups
- Out of the Leans Democrat Cook missed 3 GOP pick ups & 2 GOP holds
- Out of the Democratic Toss Up there were 5 GOP pick ups & 3 uncalled
- Out of the Republican Toss Up every race has gone to the GOP & 1 uncalled
- Out of the leans Republican - all Republicans held
- Out of the Likely Republicans - all of the Republicans held
So not only did Cook pick seven likely or leans Democrats that ended up being GOP wins, so far not a single "toss up" race has gone to a Democrat. There didn't appear to be even a whisper of a race in the lead or likely Republican side that was close. In other words, so far every single "miss" has been a miss wide left. The best he can hope for is that some of the remaining toss ups go for a Democrat or two, so it isn't a 100% whitewash.
So what are the odds that 22 toss up races all went in the same direction? Well the same chances of flipping a coin 22 times in a row and having every flip come up heads. In other words, about 0.0000238% or about one in 4,201,680.
I think it is fair to say that Cook wildly overestimated the Democrat's chances in 2020, just as 538 and others did. Just as they did in 2018 and 2016 as well. Perhaps they will get it right in 2022?
But probably not...
38 comments:
Since most of the polls question a few thousand people, I don't know if they will ever get it right.
LOL:
:Baron- T3
@3rd_abraham
Police cars revolving light#T3 - #BREAKING
Amazon's gender recognition software positively identifies Michelle Obama as male.
#MichaelObama #Obama #BarrySoetoro
https://twitter.com/3rd_abraham/status/1328541257640022017
BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!! And trump still loses Lil Schitty!!!!!! Rat still spinning like the good slurper trump demands.....BTW....it's just the flu.!!!!!!!
this is why this clueless clod will continue to reign supreme in the annals of liberal political prognostication.
he's as wrong as the alky, only not confined to a nursing home... yet.
In 1984, Charlie founded the independent, non-partisan Cook Political Report. Now, with a staff of six, it is a publication that the New York Times once said was “a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative” while CBS News’ Bob Schieffer called it “the bible of the political community.”
Al Hunt in the Wall Street Journal has referred to Cook as “the Picasso of election analysis.”
The late David Broder of The Washington Post, long considered "the Dean of the Washington press corp", once wrote that Charlie Cook is “perhaps the best non-partisan tracker of Congressional races.”
https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/about/staff/charles-e-cook-jr
toolbox extraordinaire.
BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!! And the clueless ag school drop out critiques a pollster who makes a very good living being wrong....Unlike the NY loser!!!!!!!
Alky
"Go Bears"
Result Bears loss, not scoring a single point after Roger jumped on their band wagon.
RRB Smoke Alky out.
"we've all seen the 'Pomeranian beauty' as you called her who dumped your psycho ass."
Roger Amick November 17, 2020 at 4:06 PM
I screwed up and lost my Panamanian Beautiful wife."
What did you do Roger?
And the goat fucker keeps posting his inane idea that someone other than him cares......BWAAAAAAAAA!!!! Remember the time you told me that LEO's did not join unions???????? LOLOLOLOL
When I post about Roger it is factual.
IF, he didn't find a need to Publically air his hopes, dreams , wishes and failures , we would not know all of his endless short comings.
CDC is now attempting to control you in your home. (real homes, not Alky residency in A Home)
Socialism won in the 2020 Election.
"“Encourage guests to avoid singing or shouting, especially indoors,” one of the CDC’s bullet points recommend. “Keep music levels down so people don’t have to shout or speak loudly to be heard.”
Why is the right so anti science and logic?????? Blame trumps constant claiming of hoaxes and lies!!!!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/delusional-covid-truthers-try-invade-094828722.html
What you post goat fucker is evidence of your mental retardation and lack of anything to fill your worthless day in the root cellar!!!!!!
More voter fraud
It's come to light that in NV, Native American groups are paying people to vote for Biden. This is illegal.
BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!! More voter fraud on top of the ZERO found by Rudy so far??????? What you smoking today???????
Graham interfering with the Ga recount is what, ballz???? Halpful??????
Roger and NewlyOutedJane are collecting spam.
By CATHERINE KIM
11/17/2020 04:09 PM EST
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pledged on Tuesday that the presidential transition would be orderly, despite concerns that the General Services Administration is delaying the process.
During a news conference, a reporter asked McConnell (R-Ky.) why the GSA had yet to launch the official transition process. The majority leader responded that legal disputes over the election would be settled in court first, but he promised that “all of this will happen right on time and we’ll swear in the next administration on Jan. 20.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pledged on Tuesday that the presidential transition would be orderly, despite concerns that the General Services Administration is delaying the process.
During a news conference, a reporter asked McConnell (R-Ky.) why the GSA had yet to launch the official transition process. The majority leader responded that legal disputes over the election would be settled in court first, but he promised that “all of this will happen right on time and we’ll swear in the next administration on Jan. 20.”
Get over it ballsless
RRB Smoke Alky out.
"we've all seen the 'Pomeranian beauty' as you called her who dumped your psycho ass."
Roger Amick November 17, 2020 at 4:06 PM
I screwed up and lost my Panamanian Beautiful wife."
What did you do Roger?
How did you fuck up in your life once again.
US House Republicans + 8 seats.
Elected have been Black, Hispanic, Asian and white oh and Female.
Of the 5 races not called Republicans led in all of them.
Ignore.
Ignored
THE TRUMP FARCE CONTINUES
"FARCE": A fitting name for Trump's administration and an even more fitting name for his rigged election claims.
Headlines, etc. from Politicalwire.com
for those who want to know what really is going on in the world.
___________
Exchange of the Day
Rudy Giuliani represented the Trump campaign before U.S. District Judge Matthew Brann in Williamsport, Pennsylvania:
GIULIANI: I’m not sure what “opacity” means. It probably means you can see.
BRANN: It means you can’t.
Trump’s Inept Attempt to Overturn Vote Is a Huge Scandal
Mulvaney Slams Giuliani Role on Trump Legal Team
Trump Again Has Nothing on His Daily Schedule
(He has given up on being President.)
Half of Republicans Think Trump ‘Rightfully Won’
(The number is decreasing.)
Biden Builds Team for Senate Confirmation Battles
Lindsey Graham Is the Worst
THIS IS WORTH GIVING IN FULL:
Nicholas Connors, a former staffer for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), writes in The Bulwark:
“What several years ago was a head scratching question—What happened to Lindsey Graham?—is now pretty clear. For Graham, being a United States Senator isn’t about helping Americans or advancing principles. It’s about swimming in the pool of power and feeding off the scraps the big fish leave behind. In short: Lindsey Graham is everything that’s wrong with our political system.”
(Sort of reflects what Obama said: He's like a character in a spy novel who stabs everyone in the back to save his own skin.)
Georgia’s Secretary of State Was Pressured by Trump Before Election [but insisted on keeping his neutrality.]
Both Georgia Runoffs Are Dead Heats
Publishers Face Questions Over Trump Memoir
"...publishers are at odds over such a project with President Trump, even though his presidential memoir would likely sell millions of copies. It is a debate that pits powerful commercial interests against fraught political and cultural fault lines, with some executives worried that signing him would prompt a revolt among their authors and staff, and that ensuring the book’s veracity could be an even bigger concern.”
[Sort of hard to ensure the veracity of such a liar.]
Pence Has Been Warned of 2,000 Deaths a Day by Christmas
Doctors on the White House Coronavirus Task Force have reportedly delivered a dire warning to Vice President Mike Pence: If the Trump administration doesn’t change course now, then the United States could be recording 2,000 COVID-19 deaths by Christmas, CBS News reports.
Graham’s One-Man Voting Probe Prompts Confusion
because he lied and then lied and then lied and then lied about lying, etc.
Georgia Republicans Feud With Trump at the Center
Trump Fumes Biden Will Get Credit for Vaccine
Instead, he will go down in history as the biggest bungler of how to handle the pandemic that anyone could possibly imagine.
GOP Canvassers Certify Results After Initial Deadlock
Biden Must Allow Investigations of Trump even though Biden does not want to.
That's Taegan Goddard's opinion.
What did you do Roger?
How did you fuck up in your life once again.
Russia hacked his liver and his marriage to the Pomeranian.
All dem leadership in congress will be reappointed, running unopposed. This is very good news. Especially keeping Pelosi in as speaker. She's the gift to gop thst keeps on giving.
Since most of the polls question a few thousand people, I don't know if they will ever get it right.
Polling was pretty accurate until 2016... I used spreadsheets based on pure polling (without adjustments) for every election between 2004 to 2014 and never once got more than one state-wide race incorrect in any election. One election I got none wrong, and two of them my only miss involved recounted states (so they were that close).
It was 2016 that I "chose" to stop projecting based on the fact that I no longer trusted the polling... and I have turned out to be correct.
The mistakes being made by the pollsters are not difficult to figure out, nor would they be difficult to fix. They simply need to stop pretending that "every election" is the one where Democrats are going to outnumber Republicans by wide margins, when in fact that partisan breakdown has remained stubbornly consistent. This year, btw... was one of the closest in terms of Democrat vs Republicans with only a 2 point edge for Democrats. Many pollsters were assuming it would be an 8-10 point difference (again). They simply cannot get that out of their heads...
Either because they are stupid or dishonest.
Now what is even more funny is the fact that you have the characters over at 538 who not only trust these polls as correct, but they generally give higher weight to the pollsters who seem consistently off. They tend to judge (not on results) based on how the pollster poll. Moreover they still "adjust" pollsters they don't like and make them more "pro-Democrat". Apparently they are looking more for pollsters to be like "one another" than to actually get it right.
Which is interesting... because they continue to demand that the pollsters who are getting it right over the past few elections are the outliers, while they see the pollsters getting it wrong as more accurate because they are all seeing the same numbers. I would think it would be better to get it correct than to be part of the flock getting it wrong.
9:28
Ignore.
Also:
By the way, Ch, I think these polling autopsies are mighty boring.
But while you are at it, please explain how those pollsters who predicted a Trump win got it so wrong.
Oh... Or are you going along with the Trumpian idiocy that the election was stolen?
GOP Urges Trump to Get Involved In Georgia Runoffs
10:41 am
Byron York:
“Republicans from Mitch McConnell down are telling Trump he has the opportunity to leave the Republican Party in a stronger position in Washington than any GOP president since Ronald Reagan. George W. Bush left Washington with Democrats in control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. So did George H.W. Bush. Trump has the chance to leave with Republicans in control of the Senate. A GOP Senate can stop Biden’s legislative agenda cold.
“In more blunt terms, helping Republicans win the Senate would be the best way for Trump to stick it to Biden, to stick it to Chuck Schumer, to stick it to Nancy Pelosi, to get some measure of payback, and to walk away from Washington with Republicans having real power to preserve some of Trump’s accomplishments. If Trump will work for Perdue and Loeffler victories, it will add one final accomplishment to an already impressive list of things Trump got done in a single term. The GOP’s future for the next few years could depend on Trump’s embrace of that view.”
BUT THEN HE WOULD HAVE TO ADMIT BIDEN WON. ANATHEMA!
So instead, what does Trump do?
He continues the insanity:
Trump Seeks Partial Recount In Wisconsin
10:46 am
President Trump will ask for a partial recount of election results in Wisconsin, Fox News reports.
________
and MEANWHILE, in our poor nation:
12 Million Will Lose Unemployment Benefits at Year End
10:43 am
“Deadlines set by Congress early in the pandemic will result in about 12 million Americans losing unemployment insurance by the year’s end, according to a report released Wednesday — a warning about the sharp toll that inaction in Washington could exact on the economic health of both individual households and the economy at large,” the Washington Post reports.
Headline at politicalwire.com:
Mike Pence Plans His Future
___________
Note: So does Kamala Harris. :-)
We just crossed 250,000 deaths from the covid-19 virus.
So glad we don't have the 2M covid deaths that were being projected 9 mo the ago.
Well done president Trump.
Your cherry picking information.
No credible information support your ridiculous comments
But while you are at it, please explain how those pollsters who predicted a Trump win got it so wrong.
Sorry Reverend, but there wasn't a single poll that showed Trump winning the national vote when all was said and done. In fact, there was only one poll (Rasmussen) out all of them that showed Trump doing better than he actually did.
TIPP and Harris were the closest at 4% - otherwise every other pollster had Biden winning by larger margins. A Rasmussen poll showing Biden only winning by 2 points is still closer than a NYT poll showing Biden winning by 9 or a CNN poll showing Biden winning by 12.
I don't take issue with a pollster that misses Pennsylvania by one or two points (in either direction). I take issue with a pollster like ABC/WaPo that shows Biden winning a close battleground state by seven points (when the actual result was within a point).
You can try to pretend that this was a two way street, but the facts don't back that up. This was off by large margins to the left... just was this Congressional prediction chart shows.
Russia hacked his liver and his marriage to the Pomeranian.
I think Roger is accusing you of cherry picking this information.
Perhaps you should bring up that the Russians hacked his ability to buy his Audi luxury car as well?
HAS CH forgotten Trafalgar, and didn't he tout Trafalgar?
So glad we don't have the 2M covid deaths that were being projected 9 mo the ago.
___________
So glad many people didn't listen to Trump and wore masks and social distanced.
HAS CH forgotten Trafalgar, and didn't he tout Trafalgar?
I didn't forget Trafalgar... In Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin they were the closest to the final tally of any pollster (in fact they had Biden winning Wisconsin by 1 - the only pollster that got it close). In pretty much every state they were within a couple of points of the actual final total. The most they were off was in Pennsylvania.
But showing Trump winning by 2 when he lost by 1 is no different than showing Biden winning by 4 if he only won by 1. Both polls are off by 3 points.
The NYT or WaPo saying Biden wins by 7 or 8 makes them off by a larger margin (in spite of picking the winner). You don't get points for having the right candidate. You get points for being closest to the final result.
At the end of the day, you would not really find a pollster who got it wrong by overstating Trump support. You can only point to Trafalgar because a couple of close states they were picking Trump by small margins and he lost by small margins. That doesn't make their track record bad. Overall, they were no doubt still closest to the final if you add up all of the battleground states and combine them out.
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