Election update:

Georgia Update VI: Appears I am wrong...there are still some counties counting ballots. Not sure how or why they are still counting ballots three days later, but there are several still counting. The Trump lead now stands at under 2000. This is starting to stink. 

Arizona update: Biden lead down to approximately 57K - Trump had another good counting day... but will it be enough?

Georgia Update V: Fulton County has stated that they are done and that their latest results have been uploaded to the SOS. They are still looking at provisional ballots apparently tomorrow. We should know soon if Biden has overtaken Trump. 

Looks like it's down to 3500 votes with  provisional ballots in Fulton and late out of state and military ballots left that might come in across the state. This could obviously go either way, but there is no more excuses to be "finding" new ballots to count moving forward. Or at least not a lot of new ballots. Or at least not any "good" excuses for a lot of new ballots. If counts start to fluctuate by large amounts tomorrow, you will see people screaming bloody murder.

Unless something is very odd, Fulton should not even have 3500 provisional ballots to count and we have to keep in mind that they would be same day voters and not necessarily run the same margins as the recent mail in ballots were running. Moreover, not all provisional ballots end up being counted. Also, late arriving mail-in ballots have been much more Republican than earlier arriving mail-in ballots (assuming of course that there are still many ballots post marked on the 3rd coming in three days later).

North Carolina Update: North Carolina has suggested that they will not likely update any numbers until next week. They are currently looking at approximately 40,000 provisional ballots (which seems to be fairly equally proportionate across the state and should not offer much for advantage either way) and a potential of approximately 116,000 outstanding mail in votes. 

Now this is a little more straight forward than is being reported. The 116,000 number (from the North Carolina election website) is the amount of people who requested ballots, but did not turn them in time to be counted by the election. There is no indication that there are actually that many mail in votes to count. 

But  I think we should accept that the 40,000 provisional ballots are not going to actually change the race by that much,  and might even help Trump and Tillis (as these are same day in person voters). If that is the case, then you would need "all" of those outstanding ballots to come in and you would need over 80% of them to be Biden votes to overcome the 76,701 Trump lead. The Senate race is an even bigger uphill battle with Thom Tillis ahead by 96,000 votes, which is virtually impossible to overcome.

At this point in time there is no actual evidence that 77,000 votes will even be outstanding, much less 96,000. 

Perspective: In 2016, there were 4,092,373 votes in Georgia vs 4,920,648. That's massive 20% increase over a four year period.... which, if rumors continue to grow as to how many more outstanding votes are left to count, they might end up breaking five million votes.  

Georgia Update IV: Still a lot of confusion about what is still to be counted versus what is simply "outstanding" (meaning potential mail in ballots not returned). Fulton is apparently done for all practical purposes and will be updating the "mostly final totals" later today. That being said, there is also confusion about part of their overnight counts have been already reported and what is left to be reported. Trump leads by about 13,000 which would likely hold if what they have left to report are the questionable ballots that had to be looked at by hand, but if what they previously reported since last night (which appears to have been well over 100,000 new ballots) did not include "all" of their actual counts, then it's anyone's guess. Generally they only really need to feed mail in ballots through a machine, unless there is something wrong and they get spit out. Why that would take any real time to report those machine totals to the SOS is anyone's guess. If I am being totally logical, I would think that everything "but" the questionable ballots should already be uploaded to the SOS. There would be no reason to hold back those numbers, while you sort through questionable ballots that are not going to be reported in the same manner.

Logic aside... if you put a gun to my head, I am suggesting that they have held back some of their numbers and  will bring back "just enough" to pull Biden into the lead, because that is how it "always" ends up when the last counties to report are large counties run by Democrats. 

Michigan: As is no surprise, Joe Biden appears to be winning the dead vote by 100% in Michigan.  Apparently there are quite a few dead people who have been voting absentee in Michigan. Some were born as early as 1900, which would literally make them 120 years old. At first count there doesn't appear to be enough dead vote to change the election count, but it does make you wonder how many of these absentee mail in ballots (that were not requested by anyone) were filled out and sent in. 

Nevada: Still showing just an 8,000 vote lead for Joe Biden. But unlike Arizona (where late arriving ballots appear to be favoring Trump) there is little reason to believe that uncounted ballots on Nevada will align more with Biden. 

Georgia Update III: Okay... now things "just" might be falling into place here. I saw a breakdown of the 61,000 "outstanding" ballots that is being reported by the media in Georgia. Turns out that we are probably not talking about actual ballots still needed to be counted, but ballots that were requested and not turned back in. So it sounds like people are confusing "outstanding" ballots with "uncounted" ballots. At least that is the way I am reading this. If that is the case, then there is some sort of assumption being made that these ballots will (or could) be returned and counted, which is no doubt the case. But it's also not unusual that "outstanding" absentee or mail in ballots remain outstanding for a variety of reasons. 

Georgia Update II: This is all so confusing. According to other accounts, Fulton county has already moved on to reviewing questionable ballots, and that this was the process they expected to be completed by 10:00 today. If that is the case, then they are not still counting ballots as much as canvassing undercounts and double counts looking for "clear voter intent". That might suggest that their actual ballots may already be reported as part of the 181K votes added since last night, rather than having tens of thousands of ballots left to count and report. 

Georgia Update: How does Fulton county report that they are down to under 5000 ballots and would be done by 10:00 EST after pulling an all-nighter while others suggest that they are harboring the bulk of a reported 50,000 ballots left to count? 

Meanwhile, there are still reports from media that "thousands" of the water break ballots of Gwinnett are still outstanding. Of course Gwinnett county officials demanded that the ballots were not harmed and counting them was not going to be a problem. So why are they left uncounted (or unreported)? Gwinnett has been showing 100% counted for some time.

Lastly, apparently the Secretary of State stated at 6:30 this morning that Georgia was under 25K ballots left out there and that counting would be done by noon. I have not seen an actual statement from the SOS saying anything differently. But reports continue to report increases that 25,000 number as the morning goes along and these reports are being attributing to people from the SOS. 

At last mention, the media buzz was 60,000 left to count. Since most counties are already counting and Fulton is supposed to be done around now...why does the number of uncounted ballots keep going up rather than down? 

Only a few thousand votes have been added into the system so far this morning after over 180K were reported last night.  

Counterintuitive - Trump catching Biden in Arizona as they count late arriving mail in and drop off votes

Part of the reason why FOX and others made an early call in Arizona is the conventional wisdom that late arriving mail in votes would pad the lead for Biden. But for whatever reasons that doesn't appear to be the case. Trump picked up approximately 30,000 votes in the latest round, and suggestions are that the next wave could be better for him. Even some Democrats now believe that Trump could actually catch Biden there.

Will Georgia ever finish?

Pretty much all day yesterday, Georgia was sitting at 99.51% of the vote counted, with suggestions that there was anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000 votes left to count. This morning the there were reports from Fulton County officials (Democratic stronghold) that they pulled an all-nighter and had less than 5,000 vote left in their county. Currenty both Georgia and Fulton county are showing 100% and approximately 181,000 more votes have been counted since yesterday morning.

The suggestion from the election officials in the Secretary of State office was that statewide there was under 25,000 ballots to count and they would be done this morning.

But now media reports are suggesting that as many as 50,000 votes remain outstanding to count. Many are suggesting that a good portion of these 50,000 votes are from...

Wait for it... Fulton county!

As it stands Trump is up by about 18,000 in Georgia, while David Perdue is clinging to the 50% to avoid a run off. Right now Perdue is at 50.027% with about a 2600 vote cushion. But with what we are seeing now, I believe Georgia will continue to find and count votes until both of these leads are gone.

North Carolina shows 100% and no updates since election night

If a state is won in the deep south and nobody is there to call it, does it still make a sound? At this point in time I have seen absolutely zero explanation as to what is going on in North Carolina that is preventing decision desks from making this call. It's also a little puzzling that no mail in votes or anything were added to the total in North Carolina. Perhaps votes that come in after election day are provisional and only counted if there is enough to change.

Pennsylvania still lagging in count 

Still only at 91% and Trump leads by by about 165,000 votes. Michigan had turned blue by the time they hit 91% of the vote and Biden currently leads in Michigan by about 150,000 votes. So this could be a nail-biter. Look for the typical shenanigans from the heavy Democratic counties.