Between 538 popular vote averages, RCP polling averages, and my own popular vote prediction spreadsheet (on the sidebar), that once again my numbers will the most accurate (5.1%), followed by RCP (7.2%), which leaves 538 (8.4%) once again as the biggest loser as it pertains to projecting final numbers.
Right now, the numbers stand at:
- Biden 72,348,498 50.4% (+2.4%)
- Trump 68,828,137 48%
When all is said and done, it may look closer to 50.8% to 47.5% or something in that range 3% to 3.5% percent... but it does not appear that it will get anywhere near the 5.1% that I had, much less the larger percentages shown by the so called experts.
I knew this spreadsheet would be overstating Biden support largely because the polls were overstating his support with Independents. I actually made some adjustments down the stretch that took certain pollster out of the averages (just as it pertained to Independents) and contemplated taking a few more that appeared excessive to me. Had I gone with my gut on this one, I would have ended up much closer than I actually did. But it's always a little be unnerving to trust personal projections that are so far different from conventional wisdom.
Sean Trende had a poll on his twitter account that put the over under at 7.5%. I thought it was sort of a joke, but quickly realized that the majority of respondents were taking the over. That tells me that the media did a truly amazing job of gaslighting the public into believing this was going to be a historic butt kicking of the President.
At the end of the day, I don't do state by state projections anymore because I don't trust the pollsters any further than I can throw them. But it seems that those who continue to project and rely on polling for their information are struggling to get even close over the past three elections.
15 comments:
Roger you predicted State Houses would be flipped Socialist Democrats, how many did you flip?
US House, you said Pelosi would and Socialist Democrat seats? How many?
US Senate, you said it would be In the hands of Socialist Democrat? is it?
I posted for months precisely why the polls were wrong. And the three stooge here refused to even consider it.
Rasmussen ended up saying Biden would win the popular vote by 1%
Without the fraud they were probably right again
Good ol' Nate "20 pieces of" Silver is getting defensive about being complicit in the theft.:
“I do want to ask about polling, because I think I would be virtually decapitated on Twitter if I didn’t get into this,” podcast moderator Galen Druke said about 20 minutes into the group’s discussion, raising the significant polling errors in states like Florida and Wisconsin. “The pitchforks are already coming for the pollsters and the prognosticators,” Druke said, asking his boss to address the “rage” that has been directed his way over the past 24 hours.
“If they’re coming after FiveThirtyEight, then the answer is fuck you, we did a good job!” Silver replied, explaining that the only reason former Vice President Joe Biden was considered such a heavy favorite in the site’s closely watched model was because “he could withstand a 2016-style polling error or a bit larger” and still win the election.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-tells-fivethirtyeight-critics-fuck-you-we-did-a-good-job?via=twitter_page
no Nate. you're an accessory to a federal felony. your lies helped to provide cover.
ng. And the three stooge here refused to even consider it.
BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! Sure you fucking loser!!! Polls are just snap shots of what is going on!!!!!! They predict trends and nothing else....I like following them to annoy idiots like you!!!!!
Polls are just snap shots of what is going on!!!!!! They predict trends and nothing else..
that's right BWAA.
and ALL the polls predicted a 'blue wave tsunami' and a Slow Joe landslide.
none of which actually happened.
the polls were there to cover for the theft. i don't expect a moron like you to see this though. you haven't even seen your own toes in 20 years.
Biden said: “I promise you if I’m elected president, you’re going to see the single most important thing that changes America. We’re gonna cure cancer.”
The Polls are no better this time then in 2016.
They do provide an important service.
Report Socialist Democrats are going to win.
The Blue-Stream Press reports it as "news".
Trump Wins Alaska.
The Democrats finally delivered utopia -- they made America into a third world shithole.
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/391141.php
No Path Left for Trump In Nevada
1:33 pm
Jon Ralston notes Joe Biden is up by 11,400 votes in Nevada.
“Democrats are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday — 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split.”
The bottom line:
“I see no path left for Trump here.”
________
Ben Smith:
“So Fox has a very tricky decision to make:
Call Nevada and the election, based on that early Arizona call, and escalate war with Trump;
or wait for someone else to call based on PA and follow that.
(It’s all an artifact of TV’s bizarrely oversized role here, obviously.)"
US House + 6 seats .
So far, the Down ballot has hurt The Socialist Democrats.
Where is that blue waive?
Manufacturing index Oct. 59.3% ⬆️ 3 percent.
Hannity Calls for ‘Do Over’ Election
9:17 pm
Sean Hannity argued on Fox News that there should be a “do over” election in Pennsylvania.
BS. Take that to SCOTUS.
The Disinformation Is From Inside the White House
8:50 pm
New York Times:
“A disinformation push to subvert the election is well underway, and it is coming straight from President Trump and his allies. The goal: to somehow stop a victory by Joe Biden, or, failing that, undermine his legitimacy before he can take office.”
ALSO BS.
Virus Spikes Across Much of Country
8:48 pm
“A rapidly rising flood of coronavirus infections engulfed much of the United States on Thursday, setting records for new cases in 20 states, killing nearly 1,158 people and straining the health system’s capacity to keep up with the pandemic,” the Washington Post reports.
“On Thursday, 116,707 new cases were reported, the second straight record for a single day and a figure that dwarfed the total for any day in the previous worst two periods of the outbreak, in April and July.”
NOT BS.
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