So a challenge was posed to me to explain how Trafalgar got this election cycle so wrong. It's an interesting challenge, considering Trafalgar seemed to be quite literally the most accurate pollster for the third election in a row.
What I decided to do was compare Trafalgar with CNBC. The reason for this was simple. Trafalgar is a GOP commissioned pollster, while CNBC was the main Democratic commissioned pollster. I found that in six of the most prominent battleground states, both of these pollsters weighed in. CNBC did not poll in Georgia or Ohio. Neither pollster polled in Iowa.
As you can see by the graphic above, Trafalgar was closer to the final total in Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin by fairly large margins, while CNBC was closer in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona by much smaller margins. At the end, Trafalgar had an average miss of 2.3 points. Whereas CNBC had an average miss of nearly double at 4.5 points.
Moreover Trafalgar was the closest of any pollster in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and a very close second in North Carolina (to Rasmussen). There wasn't a single state where CNBC had the best result.
That being said, in the larger scheme of things, CNBC was accurate compared to other pollsters. Quinnipiac had an average miss in battleground states of 7.5 points, NYT Sienna had an average miss of 6.2 points, while Reuters had a miss of 5.6 points.
On the flip side, Insider Advantage held a respectable 3.0 total average miss, while the much maligned Rasmussen held on to a 3.7 point average miss. Both of these "conservative" pollsters had better miss averages than CNBC, and performed much, much better than your media pollsters.
I find it curious as to why certain people believe that just because Donald Trump didn't actually win the election, that this automatically reflects some reality where pollsters whom are labeled as being conservatively biased must have been wrong. This was another razor thin victory in terms of the battleground states needed to win. Actually closer than 2016. Those pollsters that saw a huge Biden landslide were actually further off than pollsters that saw the reality that it was going to be close again.
Sorry... but that is just the fact of the matter... even if a poll on the subject might ironically suggest a different opinion.
78 comments:
BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Lil Schitty whistling past the grave yard again!!!!! The fact remains trump lost and you with the GOP are acting like a bunch of whining 2 year olds holding their breath!!!!!!! Trumps loss is up to 6 million!!!!! Which is what something like 3%????? IMHO....pretty well falls into the MOE of the national polls!!!!!!
I was the one touting Trafalgar last month. They were the only ones factoring in the shy Trump voters.
You touted Minnesota had shy Trump voters.
Breaking news
The pace of workers filing for unemployment claims picked up last week and was a bit higher than Wall Street had been expecting.
Jobless claims totaled 742,000 for the week, ahead of the 710,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, according to the Labor Department.
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 742,000, vs 710,000 estimate
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/weekly-jobless-claims.html?__source=androidappshare
We need two things.
1: The administration has to work with the President elect on the virus and all other government agencies
2: The stimulus package
Look at the results dumbass. Trafalgar saw the shy voters. The others did not.
re: the thread topic of polling accuracy...
i think there's a polling opportunity that's being missed here. someone needs to poll the voter fraud. the percentage of ballots that are fraudulent, stolen, harvested. the over-under on ballots credited to the wrong candidate. an estimate of ballots voting for president with NO down-ballot votes.
i mean, if we're going run our elections on pure theft and fraud going forward, then we probably ought to have a system in place to measure that too.
Anonymous Myballs said...
Look at the results dumbass. Trafalgar saw the shy voters. The others did not.
true. trafalgar's genius was in the simplicity of it's polling questions. it basically asked two questions:
"who are you going to vote for?"
"who is your neighbor going to vote for?"
quite visionary in contrast to cook and silver whose vision is always obscured by the nutsack of the democrat candidate in question.
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump's allies are preparing for the end of his legal fight over the election results when the Electoral College meets in December, and they continue to push him to accept a conclusion to his presidency and make post-White House plans.
"The legal challenges are continuing, but those close to the president, and frankly the president, understand they're futile," a senior administration official said.
While Trump has scarcely been seen since President-elect Joe Biden was projected as the winner more than a week ago, he has regularly continued to fire off tweets contending — without evidence — that he won the election and that it was stolen because of rampant fraud.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-team-prepares-election-fight-end-december-n1248147
Poll for voter fraud....they already did one!!!!! 29% thought the election was fixed......falls right into the range of trump idiot base like you.....same thing with birthers and those who think Obama is muslim who still are a significant percentage of americans without brains......influenced and follow trump blindly like you!!!!!
We need a small business stimulus package immediately.
But the current administration refuses to work on a package, but the Congress is on vacation
‘Experts’ Listed 27 House Races As Toss-Ups. Republicans Won All 27
On Monday, Burgess Owens, a former NFL player and vocal critic of Colin Kaepernick, was declared the winner of Utah’s 4th Congressional District.
Despite running against an incumbent and trailing by 11% in final polling, Owens prevailed in a race deemed a “toss-up” by Cook Political Report, a “nonpartisan” election and campaign analysis group popular among legacy media outlets.
Ahead of the 2020 election, Cook listed 27 races as “toss-ups,” meaning they were too close to predict one way or the other. Republicans won all 27.
That’s not a typo. Despite being assured by that conservatism was about to drown beneath an impending “blue wave,” Republicans won every single close race.
Republicans also won all 26 races deemed “leaning or likely Republican,” and even picked up 7 of the 36 seats listed as “leaning or likely Democrat.”
Despite nearly unanimous predictions that Democrats would further cement control of the House, they now hold just a 218-204 advantage, with Republicans poised to pick up more seats, as they lead in 8 of the remaining 13 races.
Republican dominance in supposedly 50-50 districts is yet another reminder of just how wrong polls were in 2020, and how wrong they have been for some time. What should embarrass pollsters most, though, is not the fact that they were wrong, but how one-sided they were in the process.
Across the board, pollsters routinely underrepresented support for Republicans while falsely painting a picture of impending Democrat dominance. Are the American people supposed to think that it’s a coincidence that nearly every time a poll missed the mark in 2020 — which was often — it was in favor of Democrats?
Ch, do you agree with rat that this election was stolen? Or do you not?
That is really the major issue now, not which pollster got it right or didn't and by how much and why.
But are you using your excessively discussing the polling question as a kind of smokescreen to try to take our attention from what REALLY is important, and is laid out in the next post I put here.
This is bad news
Slightly more than half of Republicans believe that President Donald Trump “rightfully won” the election and 68% think it may have been “rigged,” a new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Nov. 13 to 17 finds, showing how Trump’s refusal to concede and baseless claims of voter fraud are landing with his supporters despite a lack of concrete evidence to back them up.
KEY FACTS
73% of respondents overall said that President-elect Joe Biden won the election, but 52% of Republicans believe Trump was the actual victor while only 29% of Republicans said Biden “rightfully won.”
55% of respondents believe the presidential election was “legitimate and accurate,” including 16% of Republicans.
That number is a sharp decrease from 2016, when 62% said Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump was “legitimate and accurate,” including 52% of Democrats.
28% of poll respondents believe the 2020 election result was “the result of illegal voting or election rigging,” a 12% increase over 2016.
A Politico/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday similarly found that only 27% of Republicans consider the presidential results “reliable” enough to probably or definitely trust “who they declare to be the winner.”
The Politico/Morning Consult poll also found 67% of Republicans do not believe this was a “free and fair election,” with many providing reasons that echo Trump’s rhetoric: 77% believe “mail-in voting led to widespread voter fraud,” 76% believe “ballots were tampered with” and 61% believe poll watchers were blocked from voting locations, despite there being no actual evidence to support any of those suggestions.
Trump Has Abdicated in the Face of Disaster
9:04 am
David Graham:
“Almost a quarter million Americans have died from COVID-19. Some 77,000 are now hospitalized, about a fifth of those in the ICU. The country has been reporting roughly 150,000 cases a day for a week, and the numbers seem likely to rise. Hospitals, and the people who work in them, are overwhelmed. The pandemic has been a catastrophe for months, but it seems to be reaching its worst moment in the United States, despite promising advances in vaccine development.
“The nation cries out for leadership, yet amid one of the worst crises to face the country in decades, President Trump is nowhere to be found.
“Before November 3, the question of what Trump might do in the likely event of a loss was a topic of speculation:
Would he cling to office, denying the results of the election?
Or would he quit and slink away?
The answer, we now know, is both:
He has abdicated nearly all of the work of the presidency, but without either putting a temporary successor, such as Vice President Mike Pence, in charge, or allowing the formal transition to President-elect Joe Biden to begin.”
___________
This, on top of everything else, is solid evidence that Trump is not, and never has been, the kind of person who should occupy the high, demanding office of President of the United States of America.
He has divided us far more than we have been divided in recent history and is only looking out for his own selfish interests.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/11/18/half-of-republicans-think-trump-rightfully-won-election-poll-finds/
TRUMP'S LAWYERS ARE ABOUT TO TELL US HOW THEY PLAN TO STEAL THIS ELECTION.
Trump Claims ‘Clear and Viable’ Path to Victory
8:45 am
President Trump, who is projected to lose the electoral vote by 306 to 232 and trails Joe Biden in the popular vote by nearly 6 million votes, announced his lawyers will hold a press conference at 12 p.m. ET to outline “a very clear and viable path to victory.”
He added: “Pieces are very nicely falling into place.”
________________
More BS from the BSing president.
This reminds me of McCain's announcment on the eve of his election against Obama (when all the polls had Obama handily winning. McCain said, "I've got him right where I want him."
He knew better. But Trump is so insane me may not know.
While Trump sulks, Americans get sick and die
Analysis by Stephen Collinson and Maeve Reston, CNN
Updated 3 hours ago Nov 19, 2020
(CNN) - As the US speeds past the tragic mark of a quarter of a million Covid-19 deaths, its President is sulking in the White House over an election he lost fair and square and obstructing the effort by his soon-to-be successor, Joe Biden, to stand up a fight against the fast-worsening pandemic.
President Donald Trump is fixated on his failing, threadbare challenges to the election and is tweet-spreading lies about vote fraud, instead of using his platform and power to confront a once-in-a-century health emergency he falsely assured the nation was all but over.
He hasn't appeared at a public event for days and has forbidden any members of his administration to talk to Biden's team. Also, as part of the President's evidence-free quest to challenge the election, his administration is holding up millions of dollars in funding and access mandated by transition laws.
Trump's outrageous presidency has conditioned the world to his incessant flouting of the duties of the office and indifference to the national interest. But it is an extraordinary and unprecedented scenario that in the world's oldest democracy, a President is refusing to admit the clear result of an election in which Americans voted to eject him from office.
Many of Trump's legal challenges -- in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- rest on the idea that isolated problems or unproven claims of fraud should require throwing out hundreds of thousands of legally cast American votes. The results of an audit of the balloting in one key state that Biden won, Georgia, are expected to reaffirm Biden's victory on Thursday, further closing off one of the President's implausible routes to staying in power.
While legal challenges appear destined to fail, the strategy seems to be to create sufficient fog around the vote that Republican state legislatures may intervene to pick pro-Trump delegations to the Electoral College. If that fails, as is overwhelmingly likely, discrediting the election will at least salve Trump's humiliation and might be political fuel for a future run.
That all of this constitutional chicanery is coinciding with a pandemic that Trump ignored, denied and downplayed and is killing many thousands of Americans a week is only adding to the surreal sense of political purgatory in Washington caused by an outgoing President who is putting a bruised ego ahead of the health of hundreds of millions of Americans.
Trump cancels Thanksgiving
Trump, in no mood for mingling with his Mar-a-Lago crowd, has canceled his Thanksgiving trip to Florida. His press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, who draws a taxpayer salary but is dissing questions from reporters despite holding forth on Fox News and at the Trump campaign, said a President who hit the links twice last weekend is working hard for the American people and is too busy for vacations.
Yet Trump's empty schedule has no space to warn the country of the threat from the new wave of Covid-19 -- which has been exacerbated by his own refusal to back mask-wearing and social distancing. By many metrics, the US is in a far worse situation than it was in earlier phases of the pandemic.
Ahead of the 2020 election, Cook listed 27 races as “toss-ups,” meaning they were too close to predict one way or the other. Republicans won all 27.
these assholes are so committed to their cult of liberalism all objectivity has gone out the window.
and they all act like fredo corleone, demanding respect.
ol' nate "30 pieces of" silver got a little testy when challenged:
“If they’re coming after FiveThirtyEight, then the answer is fuck you, we did a good job!” Silver replied, explaining that the only reason former Vice President Joe Biden was considered such a heavy favorite in the site’s closely watched model was because “he could withstand a 2016-style polling error or a bit larger” and still win the election. On the eve of that election, FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning, much higher than other polling aggregators.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-tells-fivethirtyeight-critics-fuck-you-we-did-a-good-job
But the current administration refuses to work on a package, but the Congress is on vacation
RRB: "Siri, is this gibberish from a mentally ill nursing home inmate?"
ding, ding...
Siri: "Yes, this is gibberish from a mentally ill nursing home inmate."
The latest Washington drama unfolded after an official told CNN's Kylie Atwood that the President's recent foreign policy moves -- pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq and slapping new sanctions on Iran -- were designed to start so many foreign fires that they would be impossible for Biden's new presidency to put out.
The administration is also refusing to answer questions on these issues that could have cascading consequences and put US lives at risk.
Biden on Wednesday made his sharpest call yet for Trump to officially launch a transition, warning that a failure to do so would slow the delivery of vaccines.
"Soon we're going to be behind by weeks and months being able to put together the whole initiative relating to the biggest promise we have with two drug companies coming along and finding 95% effectiveness, efficiency in the vaccines, which is enormous promise," Biden said on Wednesday.
Emotional scenes
The President-elect spoke via an online link-up to a nurse from Minnesota, who described terrible scenes in ICU wards where staff had to reuse N-95 masks until they fell off their faces.
"I myself have held the hand of dying patients who are crying out for their family they can't see," Mary Turner, president of the Minnesota Nurses Association, told Biden as her voice broke. "I've taken care of co-workers as they fight for their lives on a ventilator -- and knowing that they got sick because of the hospital or their government hasn't protected them."
Turner apologized for becoming emotional. Biden, wiping away a tear and showing empathy that the current commander in chief has been incapable of demonstrating, replied: "No, you got me emotional."
Health experts are warning that the continued delay in reading Biden's team into the program will complicate the massively difficult logistical task of administering the vaccine.
"This is the most disruptive health event we have had in a century. ... It didn't have to be this bad," former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Tom Frieden told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday evening.
"It is so important that that handoff be done smoothly because this is going to be the most complicated vaccination program in American history and it is going to span two administrations," Frieden said. "The sooner the current administration begins speaking openly and in detail with the incoming administration the better, and the smoother that handoff will be and the more we will be able to protect people."
But Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar made clear on Wednesday that there would be no such contacts until Trump decides to order the General Services Administration to initiate a transition.
"We've made it very clear that when GSA makes a determination, we will ensure complete, cooperative professional transitions and planning," Azar said during a briefing. "We follow the guidance."
Moncef Slaoui, the chief adviser to the Trump administration's "Operation Warp Speed" vaccine program, said Wednesday that the group is running weekly Covid-19 vaccine distribution rehearsals to plan out each movement "to the minute."
"It's really being planned like an Army operation," Slaoui told CNN's Richard Quest. "We have selected warehouses that are bigger than two or three football fields, again with refrigeration, with automation, able to dispatch and distribute millions of doses on a weekly basis."
States in the firing line
While the President is absent, the burden of leadership is again falling on states and cities that are increasingly implementing more stringent measures to try to control the rapid spread of the virus this fall. The chancellor of New York City schools announced Wednesday that schools will be closed until further notice.
"Given recent increases in transmission, we have reached a point in our City's infection rate that requires all students to transition to remote learning," Chancellor Richard Carranza told families in a letter.
Michigan's governor has initiated a new set of restrictions that will span the next three weeks, prohibiting indoor dining at bars and restaurants, closing movie theaters, casinos and group fitness classes, and asking all but essential workers to work from home.
"We have to follow the epidemiology, the public health experts, and make decisions that combat the spread before our hospitals get overwhelmed and before we have 1,000 deaths a week in Michigan," Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said on CNN's "New Day," "because that's what the modeling is telling us where we're headed right now."
In Minnesota, Democratic Gov. Tim Walz announced a four-week "dial back" barring in-person gatherings with individuals beyond each household, restricting bars and restaurants to takeout and delivery, and closing gyms and entertainment venues.
"We are at a breaking point. As hospitals near the crisis of turning away new patients, continuing as things are is simply not sustainable," Walz said as he announced the new restrictions. "The actions announced today will help prevent more families from losing a loved one and ensure our hospitals can treat those who fall ill."
The nation's top infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Wednesday that the denial he is seeing across the United States pains him and he hasn't been able to speak to Biden's team: "I would wish that we would be able to do that."
"Even in some of the states where they're getting really hit badly, we're hearing people even denying there's a problem as their hospitals are getting filled," Fauci told the USA Today editorial board.
He said he was frustrated by those who still claim that Covid-19 is like the flu.
"You have a quarter of a million deaths, 11 million infections," Fauci said. "Flu doesn't even come close."
Trump Falsely Claims Voter Fraud In Detroit
8:41 am
President Trump on Twitter: “Voter Fraud in Detroit is rampant, and has been for many years!”
Glenn Kessler: “Funny he did not make this claim when he won Michigan in 2016 by only 10,000 votes. In a legal filing, his lawyers opposed a Jill-Stein request for recount then because ‘all available evidence suggests that the 2016 general election was not tainted by fraud or mistake.'”
[Under pressure from Trumpsters]
Michigan Republicans Ask to ‘Rescind’ Certification
7:00 am
“After three hours of tense deadlock on Tuesday, the two Republicans on an election board in Michigan’s most populous county reversed course and voted to certify the results of the Nov. 3 election, a key step toward finalizing President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the state,” the Washington Post reports.
“Now, they both want to take back their votes.
“In affidavits signed Wednesday evening, the two GOP members of the four-member Wayne County Board of Canvassers allege that they were improperly pressured into certifying the election and accused Democrats of reneging on a promise to audit votes in Detroit.”
Sowing Post-Election Chaos Is Trump’s Goal
6:56 am
“President Trump is trying to turn America’s free and fair election into a muddled mess of misinformation, specious legal claims and baseless attacks on the underpinnings of the nation’s democracy,” the AP reports.
“The resulting chaos and confusion that has created isn’t the byproduct of Trump’s strategy following his defeat to Democrat Joe Biden. The chaos and confusion is the strategy.”
CEOs Abandon Trump
6:54 am
Tom Donohue — CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and longtime confidant of Republican presidents — tells Axios that Joe Biden is president-elect, and President Trump “should not delay the transition a moment longer.”
Trump Challenges Cement Biden’s Triumph
6:52 am
“President Trump’s frantic post-election challenges are having the opposite effect of what he intended: He’s documenting his demise through a series of court fights and recounts showing Joe Biden’s victory to be all the more obvious and unassailable,”
Axios reports.
Said election law expert Rick Hasen: “Each loss further cements Biden’s win.”
JamesNewLeaf: It also cements Trump's position in history as the most despicable President we have ever had.
Conservatives Fear Public Preparation for Biden
6:47 am
Politico: “The conservative movement has become handicapped.
Organizations can’t sound the alarm about President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda.
Conservative reporters won’t take pitches about Biden’s rumored Cabinet contenders, insistent on covering evidence-deficient claims of voter fraud instead.
One conservative group involved in policy advocacy backed off from hiring two soon-to-depart Trump administration officials after growing concerned about the consequences.
“And it’s all because of an unspoken rule set by President Trump:
Do not acknowledge Biden’s imminent White House takeover.
Those who have run afoul of the dictate have faced swift repercussions. Some have received angry emails from donors accusing them of siding with the ‘liberal media.’
Those who have tried to start revving up the grassroots engine — warning of what could unfold in January, particularly if Democrats win control of the Senate via two runoff races in Georgia — have been likened to turncoats by colleagues.”
History will be clear.
This was an attempt by a President of the United States to steal an election.
The lame duck President is putting our country at risk.
The recount in Wisconsin targeted two districts that supported Biden in huge numbers and are prominently African American.
It is reminiscent of the Jim Crow era.
It is pure racism.
Roger Amick said...
The latest Washington drama unfolded after an official told CNN's Kylie Atwood that the President's recent foreign policy moves -- pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq and slapping new sanctions on Iran -- were designed to start so many foreign fires that they would be impossible for Biden's new presidency to put out.
The administration is also refusing to answer questions on these issues that could have cascading consequences and put US lives at risk.
that's right alky.
because remaining in 20+ year wars that we never manage to win is DEFINITELY in our national interest.
let's KEEP US troops lives at risk by keeping them in shithole-istan until the end of time, says a flat-footed vietnam war draft-dodger.
all because *oh noes!* slow joe won't be able to deal when he requires a lid every fucking day by 9:30 AM.
It is pure racism.
when EVERYTHING is racism, NOTHING is racism, alky.
embrace the suck of your race-card creation.
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe
The Trump campaign first floated the conspiracy theory last week in a string of tweets listing people they claimed were dead and voted in the election, including Christiansen, and several of the allegations were amplified by Tucker Carlson on Fox News.
Nearly all of the allegations have since been disproven, and Carlson has since apologized twice for airing the debunked allegations, without dropping his claim that dead people voted in the election:
Our allies are watching what Trump is trying to do.
It will be a test of our democratic process to defeat him in this, and we will.
The racist rodent bastard doesn't understand the history of isolationism.
It would have allowed the Germans to win in the 1940s.
Here are the kind of people rat applauds:
__
Michigan Militia Also Planned Televised Executions
9:58 am
“There is new and disturbing information in the alleged militia plot against the governor of Michigan,” WLS reports.
“The 14 men charged had far more violent plans than just a kidnapping… New filings claim there was a Plan B the militiamen had drawn up, that involved a takeover of the Michigan capitol building by 200 combatants who would stage a week-long series of televised executions of public officials.
“And, according to government documents now on file in lower Michigan court, there was also a Plan C — burning down the state house, leaving no survivors.”
My home state of South Dakota has the 3rd highest infection rate on earth.
A Republican governor Noem sucks the lame duck President's mushroom penis ever day.
We should start calling her Monica Lewinsky.
alky,
considering the fact that you are an epic fucking FAIL in every conversation around here that involves US and world history, don't ever pretend to lecture ANY of us on the topic.
you're a fraud, a liar, and a fool.
Actually,
It will be a test of our democratic process to defeat him in this, and we will.
No-- better said, WE ALREADY HAVE.
What is most amusing is the topic of polls and who was correct!!!!!!! DAYUM THAT IS FUNNY CONSIDERING THAT TRUMP AND THE SLURPERS REFUSE TO ADMIT THAT TRUJP HAS LOST WITH THE ACTUAL VOTE!!!!!!!! They accept all results of R wins in congress without question or verification!!!!!!!!! Claims up, the trump economy sputtering as he lies about the election to sow discord better than Putin!!!!! When are you idiots going to wake up???????
If the press conference with Trump's lawyers actually takes place at 12:00 noon today, it will be a fiasco.
Will they allow questions? ;-)
That's 12 EST.
WASHINGTON — The Trump White House blocked the Justice Department from making a deal in October 2019 to pay for mental health services for migrant families who had been separated by the Trump administration, two current and two former senior administration officials told NBC News.
Three sources involved in the discussions who requested anonymity said the Office of White House Counsel made the decision to reject the settlement of a federal lawsuit after consultatison with senior adviser Stephen Miller. He is Trump's rrb.
The isolationist opposed FDR funding for Great Britain
But the racist rodent bastard hasn't read any history books, because they don't have nudes of fat white chicks
IF THIS IS TRUE (AND I'M SURE CH WILL TRY TO CLAIM IS IS NOT) then Ch is wrong, wrong, wrong about almost everything else he has tried to claim.
_________
States Imposing Few Restrictions Have Worst Outbreaks
10:26 am
“Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place,” the New York Times reports.
Ch, do you agree with rat that this election was stolen? Or do you not?
From a purely statistical and mathematical concept... the manner in which Joe Biden won the election is an anomaly. Trump overperformed in the vast majority of demographics, counties, and other areas... specifically in the battleground states.
The reason why people went to bed on election night thinking Trump was going to win was because those who were watching closely (like the team at 538) were seeing all of the early counties coming back in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc. Showing Trump overperforming 2016. The early counties were actually supplying somewhat of a demographic mix that suggested Trump wasn't losing anywhere with any specific demographic.
But what happened in the key battleground states was that one or two counties had extremely huge swings from 2012/2016 to 2020 for Biden... in spite of being of the same Demographic that other counties and areas did not see a swing. Dane county (for instance) providing Biden with a end count lead of 40,000 more than Clinton saw. When other counties of similar demographics showed Trump actually outperforming 2016. Had Dane county performed like the rest of the state, then Trump wins Wisconsin by a larger margin than in 2016.
Moreover, as pointed out by some other election analysists, these large swings were limited to a handful of counties in battleground states. We did not see them anywhere else in the country.
Now does that mean it was fraud? Does that mean the election was stolen?
Not necessarily... and I don't believe you can "prove" anything either way.
But if you put a gun to my head, I would say that these anomalies were unusual enough that it caste reasonable doubt on the results (at least for me). But the other part of me wonders out loud what "could" account for this and wonders if a non-conspiracy explanation might better account for the anomaly than a conspiracy.
Bottom line: we will likely never know why these anomalies existed and why they were inconsistent with the rest of the country. But they were anomalies, none-the-less, and they most definitely held the key to Biden winning.
the New York Times reports.
Well if the NY Times reports it...
Well then it must be believed... by you!
DETROIT — President Trump called a GOP canvassing board member in Wayne County who announced Wednesday she wanted to rescind her decision to certify the results of the presidential election, the member said in a message to The Washington Post Thursday.
“I did receive a call from President Trump, late Tuesday evening, after the meeting,” Monica Palmer, one of two Republican members of the four-member Wayne County canvassing board, told The Post. “He was checking in to make sure I was safe after hearing the threats and doxing that had occurred.”
November 18 at 10:44 PM PST
The call came after an hours-long meeting on Tuesday in which the four-member canvassing board voted to certify the results of the Nov. 3 election, a key step toward finalizing President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the state.
In affidavits signed Wednesday evening, the two GOP members of the four-member Wayne County Board of Canvassers allege they were improperly pressured into certifying the election and accused Democrats of reneging on a promise to audit votes in Detroit.
In an interview, Palmer estimated that she talked with Trump for about two minutes Tuesday. She said she felt no pressure to change her vote from him.
“His concern was about my safety and that was really touching. He is a really busy guy and to have his concern about my safety was appreciated,” she told The Post.
Asked if they discussed the presidential vote count, she said:
“It’s hard for me to describe. There was a lot of adrenalin and stress going on. There were general comments about different states but we really didn’t discuss the details of the certification.”
Asked again about possible pressure from such a call, Palmer said:
“It was not pressure. It was genuine concern for my safety,” she said.
William Hartmann, the other Republican on the board, has signed a similar affidavit, according a person familiar with the document. Hartmann did not respond to a message from The Post.
Jonathan Kinloch, a Democrat and the board’s vice chairman, told The Post it’s too late for the pair to reverse course, as the certified results have been sent to the secretary of state in accordance with state rules. He lashed out at the Republicans over their requests.
“Do they understand how they are making us look as a body?” he said. “We have such an amazing and important role in the democratic process, and they’re turning it on its head.”
But if you put a gun to my head, I would say that these anomalies were unusual enough that it caste reasonable doubt on the results (at least for me).
Diagnoses? (Brainwashed)
The numbers necessary to swing the vote are astronomical, and concealing a conspiracy of that proportion could not be concealed .
“His concern was about my safety and that was really touching. He is a really busy guy and to have his concern about my safety was appreciated,” she told The Post.
It's a sad world we live in...
When an election official is doxed and then threatened over a decision (that is theirs to make) to the point where they feel that they must change that decision (not because it's right) - but for the sake of their own personal safety.
It's actually disgusting to see this.
But it is exactly how 2020 liberals act...
and apparently our resident nursing home genius is supportive and even proud of it.
Scott seriously, calling into doubt for partisan reasons, of our fundamental rights to choose our leaders. is unpatriotic .
The numbers necessary to swing the vote are astronomical, and concealing a conspiracy of that proportion could not be concealed .
I don't necessarily disagree Roger...
But those numbers are there.
If one county Dane behaves like other counties in the state (or country) with similar demographics, then Trump wins Wisconsin by 25,000 votes or more...
But there was a 40,000 vote swing. Certainly, a 40,000 vote swing in one county is astronomical... and there really isn't a good explanation for it either way.
It doesn't appear to be random
It doesn't appear to be anything local that stands out
And no... there isn't any evidence of conspiracy or fraud, at least not on the surface.
Which is all perplexing for someone who is trained to figure these things out.
I didn't say that. I didn't comment on that specific comment.
Your insults are proof of the fact that I out think you every single day.
I suggest that you check the changing demographics before you draw any conclusions.
JamesNewLeaf said:
Ch, do you agree with rat that this election was stolen? Or do you not?
___________
Ch said what he said above, ending:
Now does that mean it was fraud? Does that mean the election was stolen?
Not necessarily... and I don't believe you can "prove" anything either way.
But if you put a gun to my head, I would say that these anomalies were unusual enough that it caste(sic) reasonable doubt on the results (at least for me). But the other part of me wonders out loud what "could" account for this and wonders if a non-conspiracy explanation might better account for the anomaly than a conspiracy.
Bottom line: we will likely never know why these anomalies existed and why they were inconsistent with the rest of the country. But they were anomalies, none-the-less, and they most definitely held the key to Biden winning.
________
James says:
No, Ch, it is simple. Trump encouraged people not to vote by mail, claiming it was suspicious.
Large numbers of Democrats voted by mail anyway. Many Republicans did not, but voted for the most part in person.
Those votes were counted first. Mail-in votes, largely Democratic, were counted later.
Exactly what had been predicted (and Trump's own people told him it would happen), did happen.
The earlier, more Republican counts showed Trump winning. Then came the counting of the mail-in ballots, reflecting an even larger number of voters, Democrats, Independents, and disaffected Republicans, many of whom voted even more strongly AGAINST Trump than FOR Biden.
Bottom line:
No "anomaly." Democracy at work.
The election was not stolen.
The racial makeup of the county was 84.7% White, 5.2% Black or African American.
The white suburban women probably provided the difference from 2016.
Plus the educated male voters voted for Biden. They voted for Trump In the last election.
Be careful with your conclusions.
James, he will never admit failure on his blog post
The racial makeup of the county was 84.7% White, 5.2% Black or African American, 0.4% Native American, 4.7% Asian, 0.003% Pacific Islander, 2.5% from other races, and 2.5% from two or more races.
Get out your Excel and run the numbers
While trump plays golf and tries to negate the rule of law....he calls the michigan validator to change her vote.......WHATTA FAT SACK OF HORSESHIT HE IS!!!!!!! HE IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN ANY OUTSIDE PLAYER IN DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY!!!!! HE IS JUST IN IT FOR HIMSELF AND YOU GUYS CAN SUCK EGGS!!!!!!
Wayne ccounty Republican who asked to ‘rescind’ her vote certifying results says Trump called her
The certified election results have already been sent to the secretary of state.
Public Split on Whether Trump Undermined Constitution
11:08 am
A new Monmouth poll finds 45% of the American public believes President Trump has done more to undermine the U.S. Constitution compared to past presidents.
However, a very sizable 37% actually believes Trump has done more than his predecessors to protect the Constitution and another 15% believe he has been no different than other presidents when it comes to upholding the Constitution.
Said pollster Patrick Murray: “This may be the most alarming finding in the poll. No one who truly appreciates our country’s founding document can see the last four years as a high-water mark for upholding Constitutional norms. This speaks to the success of Trump and his allies in completely reframing the terms of political engagement.”
True. But this is going to be fixed.
____________________
Romney Warns of Trump’s Lame Duck Actions
11:02 am
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) warned in a CNN interview that the consequences of actions taken by President Trump during the lame duck period of his term are “potentially more severe” than those caused by the delayed presidential transition.
Said Romney:
“The consequences of what’s happening during this lame duck period, I think, are potentially more severe than the consequences associated with a late transition process.
“Romney cited the Trump administration’s plan to remove more troops from the Middle East as one lame duck move that could cause more damage than Trump’s refusal to formally begin the transition process.”
.
JamesNewLeaf said:
Ch, do you agree with rat that this election was stolen? Or do you not?
HE HAS YET TO AVER FIRMLY THAT TRUMP LOST THE ELECTION......Pretty well answers your silly question james....he is not man enough to admit trump is a loser!!!!!!
Ch, do you agree with rat that this election was stolen? Or do you not?
From a purely statistical and mathematical concept... the manner in which Joe Biden won the election is an anomaly.
Ch, do you agree with rat that this election was stolen? Or do you not?
From a purely statistical and mathematical concept... the manner in which Joe Biden won the election is an anomaly.
Bottom line: we will likely never know why these anomalies existed and why they were inconsistent with the rest of the country. But they were anomalies, none-the-less, and they most definitely held the key to Biden winning.
The bottom line is trump lost by 6 million votes and the electoral college by a landslide!!!!
Your brain is shot and trump is the loser....there is no evidence of fraud or rebounds that will change any outcome!!!! I thought you cared about the country but your rantings just show you to be a 50 something cry baby seeing if shit sticks to a wall!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA~~||!!!!!!!!!!!
Large numbers of Democrats voted by mail anyway. Many Republicans did not, but voted for the most part in person.
Those votes were counted first. Mail-in votes, largely Democratic, were counted later.
Well Reverend...
Everyone is aware of the mail in votes, etc...
But the mail in vote rules, counting, etc... were the same in Dane County as they were across the rest of Wisconsin.
Why didn't this same 40,000 vote swing (which you are attributing to mail in votes) happen in other counties across the state?
The only way this can be satisfied is by specifically showing us what was different in this one particular county... that simply didn't exist in any other county with similar demographics (across the country)?
Scott will never admit failure on his blog post or on Twitter or Facebook.
When an election official is doxed and then threatened over a decision (that is theirs to make) to the point where they feel that they must change that decision (not because it's right) - but for the sake of their own personal safety.
It's actually disgusting to see this.
But it is exactly how 2020 liberals act...
it was her CHILDREN who were doxxed.
her kids.
by some radical moose-limb piece of shit, no less.:
Aiyash’s public doxxing of Palmer comes after the Wayne County Board of Canvassers voted 2-2 to deny certification of the Nov. 3 election votes after Palmer and the other Republican board member noted there were ballot discrepancies in Detroit that they refused to ignore. Palmer said she was open to certifying everywhere but Detroit.
“Palmer and others noted that some precincts in Wayne County were out of balance, meaning the number of ballots processed were different from the number who signed in,” the Detroit Free Press reported.
Aiyash, however, did not accept Palmer’s skepticism and instead continued to berate her for being a bigot and partisan.
“Know that we see what’s happening now that there is nothing other than Jim Crowing that is going on right now and recognize the facts,” he said.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/18/michigan-democrat-doxxes-children-of-wayne-county-election-official/
Biden Team to Meet with Congressional Committees
11:27 am
“Senior members of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team are planning in the coming weeks to meet with congressional committees to get more insight into key issues facing federal agencies,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The pending meetings with staff on relevant committees come as the Trump administration is blocking Mr. Biden’s team from embedding in federal agencies, a typically routine part of the transition process.”
It happened in counties across the country!
Biden has a 9 million vote margin, it didn't come from one country in Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania or Georgia or Nevada or Arizona!
Your a number guy. So an I!
I spent years analyzing highly complex construction issues, not just hammering nails!
It happened in counties across the country!
If you say so Roger...
Because you are a "math genius" and know everything!
Well except how to subtract? You have issues with that.
79.259.973 - 73,403,203 = nine million?
Blogger Roger Amick said...
It happened in counties across the country!
you know what else happened in counties across the country alky?
no down ballot voting.
i'll go to my grave believing this was stolen.
The projected margin is about 9 million.
That's where I got the number from asshole
That's where I got the number from asshole
alky... what you meant to say was:
"I pulled the number from my asshole."
LOL.
Well Rat...
It's a difficult thread to talk about "anomalies" when apparently none of the three stooges understands what the term actually means. It only exasperates it when the self proclaimed genius cannot perform basic math.
But in typical liberal fashion... we don't use real numbers or real math. We use a "projection" which allows us to simply toss around whatever number we want.
my nomination for the dumbest fuck of the entire 0linsky administration:
“So I’m hoping there’s going to be no activity that really is going to make it more difficult for us to try to repair the damage that has been done over the last four years in terms of Donald Trump’s actions on Middle East policies.
It really needs to be addressed very carefully.”
- John "Commie Traitor" Brennan.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1329147384790716421
But in typical liberal fashion... we don't use real numbers or real math. We use a "projection" which allows us to simply toss around whatever number we want.
i think it's even worse than that. they actually believe the accuracy of tens of thousands of ballots being 'discovered' all for biden with no down ballot votes cast.
try flipping a coin 20,000 times and have it come up 'heads' every single time.
😂It's a difficult thread to talk about "anomalies" when apparently none of the three stooges understands what the term actually means.🤣 CHT
Clearly.
"719.259.973 - 73,403,203 = nine million?" CHT
The perfect Math of Alky illustrated
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