Sean Trende goes over each state in two articles (one, two) and comes to the conclusion that when all is said and done that it is likely that the GOP will gain about six seats through redistricting, largely due to the states that are losing seats vs the states gaining seats. He also looks at the state legislatures and courts for some guidance in how it all might play out.
Obviously this is guesswork, but either way you look at it, there are problems for Democrats as some of their states (big states like California, or little states like Rhode Island) are simply losing seats. When you already own a vast majority of the districts (California) or 100% of the districts (Rhode Island) it is difficult to lose seats and somehow gerrymander it into an overall increase.
Meanwhile, the density of liberals flocking to large cities on the coasts has made it difficult to draw districts that help Democrats that don't look like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. Court challenges are much easier to win, when the redrawn districts make no real sense other than to help one Party or the other.
Moreover, these are going to change the Electoral College as well. Most of the losses are coming in either liberal states (California/New York) or the Battleground states (great lakes states). Texas and a hand full of other states (Montana oddly) are gaining seats. This is an unusual redistricting for the simple fact that California and New York are shedding (not consolidating) population power. The rich are no longer getting richer, but rather being forced to redistribute their electoral wealth to states like Montana and Texas!
26 comments:
Ch thinks the rich will no longer get richer in Texas?
i think Trende's analysis is encouraging. between gerrymandering, population shift, and the slow creeping rejection of the policies put forth by assholes like 'the squad', there's a path here for significant GOP gains over time. if they're smart enough to start playing the long game that is.
this is very cool:
Gov. Greg Abbott will welcome representatives from major stock exchanges, including Nasdaq, to Austin on Nov. 20.
According to a report by The Dallas Morning News, the meeting is part of Texas's bid to be the top choice if the exchanges make good on their threats to move their trading platforms out of New Jersey.
Last month, the Dallas Morning News reported that Gov. Abbott's office was in talks with Nasdaq and other exchanges about moving data centers, which power billions of dollars in trades on Wall Street each day, to Dallas.
“Texas continues to be the premier economic destination in the country, attracting more leading businesses than any other state," spokeswoman Renae Eze told the Dallas Morning News. “The governor looks forward to meeting with Nasdaq and showcasing Texas' business-friendly environment, skilled workforce, robust infrastructure, and low taxes, all of which foster greater economic growth in the Lone Star State.”
The group meeting with Abbott calls itself the Coalition To Prevent the Taxing of Retirement Savings, two sources familiar with the discussions told the Dallas Morning News.
The coalition includes Nasdaq, CBOE Global Markets, Citadel Securities, data center operator Equinix, IEX, Members Exchange, New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange, TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., Virtu Financial and UBS.
Texas was the first of several states to reach out to the coalition to express interest in housing the exchange data centers, the Dallas Morning News reported. Virginia, North Carolina and Illinois have also reportedly had discussions with Nasdaq.
According to the Dallas Morning News, the coalition's desire to move out of New Jersey is being driven by a potential tax on financial transactions in the state.
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/nasdaq-other-trading-exchanges-to-meet-with-gov-abbott-about-potential-move-to-dallas/2475771/#:~:text=Gov.%20Greg%20Abbott%20will%20welcome,platforms%20out%20of%20New%20Jersey.
if the exchanges move out, NY & NJ are DONE.
heh
Scott asshole still loves the lame duck President despite
More than 130 Secret Service officers who help protect the White House and the president when he travels have recently been ordered to isolate or quarantine because they tested positive for the coronavirus or had close contact with infected co-workers, according to three people familiar with agency staffing.
The spread of the coronavirus — which has sidelined roughly 10 percent of the agency’s core security team — is believed to be partly linked to a series of campaign rallies that President Trump held in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, according to the people, who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the situation.
The outbreak comes as coronavirus cases have been rapidly rising across the nation, with more than 152,000 new cases reported Thursday.
Bonkers squared
NEWSLETTER EXCLUSIVE: TRUMP TALKS POST-ELECTION FIGHT. The president called on Thursday morning to update the election challenges his campaign is making in several key states. The bottom line from our conversation: No matter what news organizations have projected, Trump says he's confident he will win the states needed to get to 270 electoral votes. He quickly ran through the situation in six states.
"We're going to win Wisconsin," he began. "Arizona — it'll be down to 8,000 votes, and if we can do an audit of the millions of votes, we'll find 8,000 votes easy. If we can do an audit, we'll be in good shape there."
Story continues below
"Georgia, we're going to win," he continued, "because now, we're down to about 10,000, 11,000 votes, and we have hand-counting" — a reference to the coming recount. "Hand-counting is the best. To do a spin of the machine doesn't mean anything. You pick up 10 votes. But when you hand-count — I think we're going to win Georgia." He'll also win North Carolina, Trump joked, "unless they happen to find a lot of votes. I said, 'When are they going to put in the new votes in North Carolina? When are they going to find a batch from Charlotte?'"
Then there are two more — Michigan and Pennsylvania. "The two big states," Trump said, before allowing, "They're all sort of big." In those two, Trump is pinning his strategy on protesting the exclusion of his campaign's observers during critical periods of vote-counting. "They wouldn't let our poll watchers and observers watch or observe," Trump said. "That's a big thing. They should throw those votes out that went through during those periods of time when [Trump observers] weren't there. We went to court, and the judge ordered [the observers] back, but that was after two days, and millions of votes could have gone through. Millions. And we're down 50,000."
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It was definitely an optimistic scenario and one at odds with the current state of the race. Wisconsin has already been called for Joe Biden, who has a lead of 20,546 votes. Arizona has just been called for Biden, with a lead of 11,390 votes. Georgia has not been called yet and is headed for a recount, the hand recount that Trump wanted, with Biden leading by 14,057 votes. North Carolina, on the other hand, looks good for Trump. Although it has not yet been called, the president leads Biden by 73,244 votes.
Then, there are Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both have been called for Biden, who has a 148,382-vote lead over Trump in Michigan and a 54,273-vote lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. There is no way that many votes for Trump could appear, so the president's hope is for the protests to work — so far, they haven't — and also, in Pennsylvania, for a judicial victory over the state Supreme Court's unilateral decision to extend the deadline in which mail-in votes could be received. That is a case Trump should definitely win — the state court completely ignored the legislature's constitutional authority to make such decisions — but that does not mean it will make much difference in the vote totals.
you have to ruin this threat with your off-topic bullshit spam TOO, eh alky?
He thinks that he will win the blue wall states again
if the exchanges move out, NY & NJ are DONE.
Loefler moving Texas
Because the Trump base kept control over most state governments because his base turned out in record numbers, the Republican Senators are afraid of him, they won't say that the vice President Biden won the election.
But that doesn't matter as much as some people think.
The electoral college will favor Democrats for a very long time.
The blue wall is intact. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are blue. The demographics indicate that Texas may become blue soon.
But the oddball is Donald Trump. He got more votes than ever before. Unless a prominent Republican steps up, the will a minority party for decades.
Imo
The Senate races in Georgia are the most consequential in this year.
McConnell will not work with the Biden administration. Biden can use executive orders for the Paris agreement and reversing climate change orders by Trump.
But if vice President Harris is the deciding vote, we may make epic changes in American history.
No coattails Joe.
US House Sees 7 seats so far flipped to Republicans.
Can Polosi begin to work with the Republicans?
"But if vice President Harris is the deciding vote, we may make epic changes in American history." Roger
Put some meat on this Barr bone.
What "epic changes"?
"Caliphate4vrNovember 13, 2020 at 10:20 AM
if the exchanges move out, NY & NJ are DONE."
Yep, money goes to where it is treated beat.
Hilarious
For years the Dems have been preaching how unsafe and rigged our elections have been. Now they are saying what a wonderful job the Trump Administration did in making 2020 the most secure election ever. Actually this is true, except for what the Democrats did. Rigged Election!
"Caliphate4vrNovember 13, 2020 at 10:20 AM
if the exchanges move out, NY & NJ are DONE."
Yep, money goes to where it is treated beat.
Where it is treated BEST.
The blue wall is intact. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are blue. The demographics indicate that Texas may become blue soon.
and there it is.
the dumbest fucking thing i will read on this blog today.
ask abortion barbie about texas turning blue, alky.
ask cali about Georgia turning blue. he lives there. you're locked down in a nursing home in Mexifornia.
Nevada went to Biden. It is the state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain. Now both Senators and Democrats
In Texas there are 21 Hispanic babies are born. The caucasian women have 5.
Because Trump has lost the over 65 population, the retires vote blue.
The margin was 3%.
Nevada went to Biden. It is the state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain. Now both Senators and Democrats
More Alky history that’s flat fucking wrong
I'm not feeding the trolls
Nevada went to Biden. It is the state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain.
the newest dumbest fucking thing i've read today on this blog.
AZ is the state of Goldwater and McStain, genius.
Because Trump has lost the over 65 population, the retires vote blue.
and the Hispanics in TX voted Trump by a massive margin, alky.
cheese and fucking rice you are STOOPID.
11:05 (trump tweet)
How did the Dems manage to rig an election that was that secure?
Lolololololololololo
Arizona went to Biden. It is the state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain. Now both Senators and Democrats
Delusions
White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro: “We’re moving forward here at the White House under the assumption that there will be a second Trump term ... We have, what appears in some sense to be, an immaculate deception."
(FWIW, there will not be a second Trump term.) https://t.co/qiVfAyZ5G9
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