Assuming you can trust any polling anymore or trust that Georgia will properly count votes?
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Perdue (R) | Ossoff (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 11/8 - 12/16 | -- | -- | 49.6 | 48.0 | Perdue +2.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 12/14 - 12/16 | 1064 RV | 2.9 | 50 | 48 | Perdue +2 |
| Emerson | 12/14 - 12/16 | 605 LV | 3.9 | 51 | 48 | Perdue +3 |
| FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage | 12/14 - 12/14 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 49 | 48 | Perdue +1 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Loeffler (R) | Warnock (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 11/8 - 12/16 | -- | -- | 49.2 | 48.4 | Loeffler +3.3 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 12/14 - 12/16 | 1064 RV | 2.9 | 52 | 46 | Loeffler +6 |
| Emerson | 12/14 - 12/16 | 605 LV | 3.9 | 51 | 48 | Loeffler +3 |
| FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage | 12/14 - 12/14 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 49 | 48 | Loeffler +1 |
This is polling information taken from Real Clear Politics, in case anyone is wondering. If accurate, we are looking at two match ups that still could go either way, but show the Republicans as running slightly ahead. There were some earlier November polling from Survey USA showing the two Democrats ahead, and both Trafalgar and Fox5 had Ossoff up back in November. The Fox Insider poll previously showed Warnock up as well.
Overall, the polling momentum (anyways) seems to be moving in the direction of the Republicans, and from what is being said, the GOP is happy with early voting, GOTV drives, and what their internals are saying about the races.
People seem to forget, but the Perdue/Ossoff race is a rematch of a race that Perdue just won by 1.8% and approximately 84,000 votes just a few weeks ago. But because of the fact that David Perdue did not reach 50%, means that he was forced into a run-off against the same candidate. The difference, this time, is that there will be no Libertarian candidate on the ballot (who took 115,000 votes and held Perdue under 50%). So it would seem like Perdue should hold an advantage in the fact that he isn't needing new votes to win. Just needs to hang on to most of what he had and possibly convert some of those Libertarian votes to his side. Plus he has an 84,000 vote cushion, which is better than having an 84,000 vote deficit to make up.
On the flip side the Loffler Warnock race seems to be more of the ideological race, with Loeffler considered more conservative and Warnock being painted as a liberal extremist (which is an easy picture to paint considering he is a liberal extremist). In November, the SUSA poll had Warnock up seven points, which is quite the turnaround from the six point advantage that Trafalgar is showing today. There is every indication that a "closer" look at Warnock's extreme views and past actions had worn down his polling numbers and damaged his chances. The two Republicans (Loeffler/Collins) running against Warnock in the general combined to win 51% of the vote, so Warnock is also needing to chase down some additional votes to win in January.
Of these pollsters, Emerson seems to be the only current pollster that also polled the Georgia Senate race down the stretch during the general election. In case you are wondering, Emerson had Ossoff up by a point in their final poll, so they were off by about 3 points in favor of the Democrat.
45 comments:
Trafalgar BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!
It is closer than an RCH......... BIG TURN OUT COMING.....WILL TRUMPS STUPIDITY TURN THE TIDE????? Will crooked elections resonate and keep the farmers home????? Going to be interesting but I do I think GA will turn both D???? My odds are 50 to 1 against!!!!!!
Trafalgar was the closest in both 2016 and 2020.
How Oddsmakers Made a Killing Off Trump Supporters
8:25 pm
Slate:
“The odds-shifting bonanza on election night, with all that money on the line, was not a sign that the oddsmakers knew something the mainstream media did not. Instead, the Trump spike was the peak of a phenomenon that had been unfolding all year. Many Trump supporters were certain he could not lose, and they plowed so much money into betting on him that they distorted markets in his (and ultimately, the sportsbooks’) favor.”
Said gambling writer Collin Sherwin: “It’s the most irrational market I ever saw.”
John Gruber:
“The MAGA types were still wagering real money on Trump after the election had been called for Biden. It was like taking candy from babies who deserved to have their candy stolen.”
Ex-Justice Department Lawyer Apologizes
8:35 pm
Erica Newland writes in the New York Times that she’s “haunted by what I did” as a lawyer in President Trump’s Justice Department.
“No matter our intentions, we were complicit. We collectively perpetuated an anti-democratic leader by conforming to his assault on reality. We may have been victims of the system, but we were also its instruments. No matter how much any one of us pushed back from within, we did so as members of a professional class of government lawyers who enabled an assault on our democracy — an assault that nearly ended it.
“We owe the country our honesty about that and about what we saw. We owe apologies. I offer mine here.”
The Three Effeminate Socialist of CHT hero.
"Birx traveled to Delaware vacation property with family after warning of holiday gatheringsThree generations of her family from two households were present"
"AOC gets coronavirus vaccine"
Yep, put her ass at the front of the line, you know "for the people" of New York.
The 49'ers move to the safety of Arizona.
Now, The Rose Bowl moves the the Safe Harbor of Texas.
California is a shot hole.
"Birx traveled to Delaware vacation property with family after warning of holiday gatheringsThree generations of her family from two households were present"
of course she did.
i suppose that all we can hope for as we emerge from this idiocy over the next several months is that there is an especially hot and horrifically painful corner of hell that will receive the likes of birx and fauci and cuomo and whitmer and peloshee and schemer... when they ultimately cross over to the other side.
these fucking assholes have destroyed more lives than the virus will ever claim, all because the virus was the perfect situation by which to take down the bad orange man.
instead of these fucking tyrants, we would do well to have actual sensible scientists in charge:
A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-COVID Strategy
Jay Bhattacharya is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University, where he received both an M.D. and a Ph.D. in economics. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economics Research, a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and director of the Stanford Center on the Demography and Economics of Health and Aging. A co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration, his research has been published in economics, statistics, legal, medical, public health, and health policy journals.
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible-compassionate-anti-covid-strategy/
y Bhattacharya is a Professor
BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! The judith curry of doctors....out of step and opinionated!!!!!!!
Your fucking brilliant Dr Jay.....advocates herd immunity ...his Great Barrington plan is the expose of that idea neatly summarized with "and healthy people to return to normal life while protecting the most vulnerable. This would let the virus spread in low-risk groups, with the aim of achieving “herd immunity”
Brilliant you dumb fuck......millions of potential deaths thru stupidit1!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!
Fatty the Great Barrington Plan makes provisions for you aged and sickly
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
https://gbdeclaration.org/
Anonymous Caliphate4vr said...
Fatty the Great Barrington Plan makes provisions for you aged and sickly
indeed it does, but i never expect him to understand anything i post outside of "BWAAAAAAA!"
btw, you can sign the declaration. i did. i encourage all like-minded, freedom loving people to do so.
I did weeks ago
excellent.
Pollsters Disappear In Georgia
6:42 am
Politico:
“Something’s missing from Georgia’s high-stakes Senate runoffs: the polls. After a disastrous November election for the polling industry, when the polls again underestimated President Donald Trump (who lost regardless) as well as GOP candidates down the ballot, pollsters are mostly sidelined in the run-up to the Jan. 5 Georgia elections, which most observers regard as toss-ups.
“The public polls that drove so much of the news coverage ahead of November — and generated tremendous distrust afterward — have all but disappeared in Georgia, and they are set to stay that way: Some of the most prolific, best-regarded media and academic pollsters told Politico they have no plans to conduct pre-election surveys in Georgia.”
More Than 1.3 Million Have Voted In Georgia
8:15 am
“More than 1.3 million Georgians have already voted in two Senate runoffs taking place next month — a number that rivals the turnout at this point in the November election and points to intense enthusiasm in a pair of races that will determine control of Congress,” the Washington Post reports.
CNN:
Pop-up super PACs flood Georgia runoff.
Trump Leaves Behind Mess While Undermining Biden
7:36 am
“When President-elect Joe Biden is sworn into office on Jan. 20, the list of crises he will face includes
a massive cyber intrusion,
a still-raging global pandemic,
a slowing economic recovery
and a lingering reckoning over the nation’s racial tensions,” the Washington Post reports.
“President Trump is not making his job any easier and, in several ways, appears to be actively making it harder — going to extraordinary lengths to disrupt and undermine the traditional transition from one administration to another despite the nation’s many crises.”
Spy Duped Into Revealing How Navalny Was Poisoned
7:36 am
“A Russian agent sent to tail opposition leader Alexey Navalny has revealed how he was poisoned in August — with the lethal nerve agent Novichok planted in his underpants,” CNN reports.
“The stunning disclosure from an agent who belonged to an elite toxins team in Russia’s FSB security service came in a lengthy phone call following the unmasking of the unit by CNN and the online investigative outfit Bellingcat last week.”
DID PUTIN TELL TRUMP THE RUSSIANS DIDN'T DO IT?
Biden to Receive Vaccine Today
7:34 am
“President-elect Joe Biden will receive his first dose of the coronavirus vaccine on live television as part of a growing effort to convince the American public the inoculations are safe,” the AP reports.
U.K. In Crisis
7:12 am
“At least 30 countries, including 17 in the neighboring European Union, have banned flights from the United Kingdom after the British government warned that a new variant of the coronavirus could be up to 70% more transmissible,” Axios reports.
“U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to hold an emergency meeting of advisers after France announced Sunday that it would close its borders for 48 hours, blocking off ports that account for roughly 20% of the U.K.’s trade in goods.”
WHY HASN'T TRUMP BANNED FLIGHTS?
How Trump Will Be Remembered
6:38 am
“The most improbable of presidents, Donald Trump reshaped the office and shattered its centuries-old norms and traditions while dominating the national discourse like no one before,” the AP reports.
“Trump, governing by whim and tweet,
deepened the nation’s racial and cultural divides
and undermined faith in its institutions.
His legacy: a tumultuous four years that were marked by his impeachment,
failures during the worst pandemic in a century
and his refusal to accept defeat.
He smashed conceptions about how presidents behave and communicate,
offering unvarnished thoughts and policy declarations alike,
pulling back the curtain for the American people while enthralling supporters and unnerving foes
— and sometimes allies —
both at home and abroad.
“While the nation would be hard pressed to elect another figure as disruptive as Trump, it remains to be seen how much of his imprint on the office itself, occupied by only 44 other men, will be indelible.”
A PRESIDENCY THAT WILL LIVE IN INFAMY.
Stimulus Deal Provides Economic Relief, for Now
6:33 am
“For much of the economy — especially people and industries that have been insulated from the worst effects of the pandemic — it may provide a bridge to a vaccine-fueled rebound. That is especially likely if the vaccine is quickly and widely distributed, and the swelling number of coronavirus cases doesn’t force another round of widespread shutdowns,” the New York Times reports.
“The injection of money comes months too late for tens of thousands of failed businesses, however, and it may not be enough to sustain unemployed workers until the labor market rebounds. Moreover, it could be the last help from Washington the economy gets anytime soon.”
Inside Biden’s Cabinet Confirmation Drive
6:40 am
Politico: “Already, Biden has tapped a vast network of current and former elected officials, interest groups, CEOs and others to take part in lobbying efforts for his Cabinet picks. That has included dispatching nominees to engage in Zoom meetings with interest groups, amplifying transition messaging on social media and reaching out to powerful Senate members who will be key to the confirmation.
“The Biden transition team, which is expecting that at least some confirmation hearings will begin before the Jan. 20 inauguration, has already had hundreds of conversations with Hill members and staff and taken part in dozens of meetings with members of Congress. Before Cabinet names go public, notifications go out to bipartisan leadership, relevant committee offices and home state members of Congress. Once they are announced, nominees are making dozens of calls, including to Republicans, who have signaled they could put up resistance to some of picks.”
Fatty the Great Barrington Plan
And promotes herd immunity you dumb fuck.....Why do you think that is good or are you just as stupid as rat?????? The ag school drop out!!!!!!!! Sorry but stupid as deep as yours needs a complete exorcism to cure!!!!!!! bWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! You would sign your own certificate of being a dumb fuck!!!!!
LOL GF:
Lin Wood: “I am not impressed. Ms. Powell retracts nothing. File your lawsuit”
https://twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1340729543267667970?s=20
e World Health Organization and numerous academic and public-health bodies have stated that the proposed strategy is dangerous, unethical, and lacks a sound scientific basis
Yep......another stupid idea that will kill thousands of people!!!!!!!!
Another Trump First
9:49 am EST
Max Boot in The Washington Post:
“Never before in U.S. history has there been a record of a president discussing a military coup to stay in office. Is there any doubt that if Trump could find any active-duty generals willing to carry out this plot against America, he would give it the go-ahead? In this instance, all that is preserving the Constitution is the military’s fidelity to the rule of law.”
__________
Trump would out-Hitler Hitler if he could.
Fatty again, the disease is equivalent to the flu unless you are old and in poor health, obese and diabetic plus your age, makes it more problematic for you
A PRESIDENCY THAT WILL LIVE IN INFAMY.
Happy First Day of Winter.
Thinning the herd.��
The lead pastor of a metro Atlanta mega-church has tested positive for COVID-19 just days after attending a Christmas party at the White House. Jentezen Franklin is the pastor at Free Chapel in Hall County. In Sunday morning's service, pastor Javon Ruff announced that Franklin was absent due to his recent diagnosis.
Biden Adds New Members to His Economic Team
9:56 am
“President-elect Joe Biden is rounding out his economic team, adding a longtime aide to Sen. Elizabeth Warren and a former Obama administration budget official to his National Economic Council,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Mr. Biden announced on Monday that he was appointing David Kamin, the former Obama official, as deputy director of the NEC, the White House’s economic policy arm. Bharat Ramamurti, the former Warren aide, will be deputy NEC director for financial reform and consumer protection. The president-elect also named Joelle Gamble as special assistant to the president for economic policy. The roles don’t require Senate confirmation.”
Virginia Removes Robert E. Lee Statue
9:55 am
Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam announced he has removed its statue of confederate general Robert E. Lee from the U.S. Capitol.
Stupid Quote of the Day
9:53 am
“If Biden is inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States on January 20th, it will mark the final hour of conspiracy to dismantle the American election process, and the first hour of conspiracy to dismantle America.”
— Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA), on Twitter.
___________
No, in both cases, Trump tried, but couldn't.
Anonymous Caliphate4vr said...
Fatty again, the disease is equivalent to the flu
You really are dumb beyond your years!!!!!!! You are the equivalent of a boil on the ass of society that needs of be lanced!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!! There is no science that says that.....Only opinions from dumb fucks like you!!!!!!!!!
Over 300,000 American people are dead and you don't fucking care because you're an asshole.
I guess 130 k in the hospiatal for covid is just an illusion that it is not a serious problems.....I guess 330k dead is indicative it is not serious......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!
2.0 Joe
Installs more lost years bottom feeders.
2.0 Joe
Installs more lost years bottom feeders.
Four years of the Dark Winter Presidency is almost upon us.
For the wantonly stupid and lazy mouth of the south....opining the flu ain't bad and not backing it up, this may help even a mildly illiterate UGA graduate may understand.......BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/fact-check-covid-19-is-far-worse-than-the-influenza-outbreaks-of-1976-as-meme-claims/ar-BB1c15ew
Still wondering where the link is for Covid and flu equivalency.......BWWWAAAAAAAA Once again the mouth of the south can only provide generically stupid opinions that match his own!!!!!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/17/fact-check-covid-19-far-worse-than-1976-flu-outbreaks/3933852001/
Wow you proved something there comparing it to seasonal flu outbreak of 76, what you think you proved, I have no idea
Stupid, stupid fatman
Roger Amick said...
Over 300,000 American people are dead and you don't fucking care because you're an asshole.
300,000? yeah, right. i would say that the true asshole is those who would wildly inflate the fatality numbers for political gain. that would be YOU alky.
The COVID fatality rate is much closer to 0.2 or 0.3 percent. The reason for the highly inaccurate early estimates is simple: in early March, we were not identifying most of the people who had been infected by COVID.
“Case fatality rate” is computed by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But to obtain an accurate COVID fatality rate, the number in the denominator should be the number of people who have been infected—the number of people who have actually had the disease—rather than the number of confirmed cases.
[...]
“Case fatality rate” is computed by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But to obtain an accurate COVID fatality rate, the number in the denominator should be the number of people who have been infected—the number of people who have actually had the disease—rather than the number of confirmed cases.
In March, only the small fraction of infected people who got sick and went to the hospital were identified as cases. But the majority of people who are infected by COVID have very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. These people weren’t identified in the early days, which resulted in a highly misleading fatality rate. And that is what drove public policy. Even worse, it continues to sow fear and panic, because the perception of too many people about COVID is frozen in the misleading data from March.
So how do we get an accurate fatality rate? To use a technical term, we test for seroprevalence—in other words, we test to find out how many people have evidence in their bloodstream of having had COVID.
This is easy with some viruses. Anyone who has had chickenpox, for instance, still has that virus living in them—it stays in the body forever. COVID, on the other hand, like other coronaviruses, doesn’t stay in the body. Someone who is infected with COVID and then clears it will be immune from it, but it won’t still be living in them.
What we need to test for, then, are antibodies or other evidence that someone has had COVID. And even antibodies fade over time, so testing for them still results in an underestimate of total infections.
Seroprevalence is what I worked on in the early days of the epidemic. In April, I ran a series of studies, using antibody tests, to see how many people in California’s Santa Clara County, where I live, had been infected. At the time, there were about 1,000 COVID cases that had been identified in the county, but our antibody tests found that 50,000 people had been infected—i.e., there were 50 times more infections than identified cases. This was enormously important, because it meant that the fatality rate was not three percent, but closer to 0.2 percent; not three in 100, but two in 1,000.
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible-compassionate-anti-covid-strategy/
Jennifer Granholm, Enegry Secretary with the knowledge base of Hunter Biden.
Dec 31st, 2020 is almost her will The Dark Winter Presidency reach his goal of 550,000 US Deaths do to the China Found?
outbreak of 76, what you think you proved,
BWAAAAAAAA!!!!! Proved you to be a big mouthed asshole who can't back up anything!!!!!!!! LOLOLOL
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible-compassionate-anti-covid-strategy/
DATA FROM THE FAKE DR. JAY AND HIS HERD MENTALITY......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! It's a big piece of steaming horseshit and again proves you to be a moronic trump slurping asshole!!!!!!
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html
A much better source for the moronic rat......But he will attack it because it is the CDC and who can trust them!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
California's People in revolt, recalling Gov. Newsom.
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.9 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of mentions for each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.
From the cdc fatman. You’re at risk because obesity and diabetes
well BWAA, as long as the CDC continues to count among the dead a motorcycle accident victim, a guy who fell off a fucking ladder while building a house, and a guy who hit the sidewalk at a high rate of speed after a suicide leap, i'll continue to not believe their numbers.
nothing that we're doing lately is based on science. 70% of new covid cases in NY are from 'living room family gatherings'; 1.42% of the new cases are from indoor restaurant dining, so Killer Cuomo shuts down indoor restaurant dining in NYC.
you clowns can't even keep up with your own bullshit. add to that the hypocrisy of our "leaders" with Birx being the latest, and you can why we're fed up, pretty much done with your bullshit.
go cower under your bed with the alky and the pederast.
Let's Start Jailing Lawmakers Who Violate Their Own COVID Restrictions
https://pjmedia.com/columns/stephen-kruiser/2020/12/02/the-morning-briefing-lets-start-jailing-lawmakers-who-violate-their-own-covid-restrictions-n1183923
https://pjmedia.com/columns/stephen-kruise
STARTING WITH TRUMP AND MCCONNELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeah those brave R's acting like the dipshit chickens like you know them to be!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA! Yeah sure......thousands of dead MC era were counted.....BWAAAAAAAAA!!!! You can't even find your own ass in the dark let alone tell others what they did wrong, maybe......god you are a dumb fuck!!!
‘Simple Math’ Shows Biden Claims 13 MILLION More Votes Than There Were Eligible Voters Who Voted in 2020 Election.
It's not an anomaly nationally! It is evidence!
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