Sunday, July 11, 2021

What has the Arizona Maricopa election audit found so far?

These are some of the key findings so far in a state Biden won by 11K


  • A 628K difference between the reported mail-in/early-votes counted and the total votes officially verified at the county level based on voter return and voter sign in records. 
  • A 10K overall difference between what was certified and what shows as actually counted by the county. 
  • Vote "dumps" to the State from Maricopa county show approximately 120K more votes for Biden than what appears to have actually been counted in Maricopa county. 

So it is possible that Election officials were just sloppy or that there are other explanations for what this audit has found so far. But as it stands, it appears that over 600K more mail in ballots were counted than appears to have been officially taken in . On top of that, the certified number of votes provided to the State was 10K more than they show they counted. Lastly, the voter dumps from the county to the state appears to be larger for Joe Biden than the certified number of votes provided. 

Now as a statistician, the first two seem to be something that lives within the confines of Maricopa County (or any county). The county would have no real need to report a difference to the state in terms of the mail-in ballots counted and recieved, nor would they really have any reason to report any discrepancy between what they certified and what their official counts show. Not doing so (especially considering the numbers) would, of course, be dishonest and it is suspicious. Moreover, one has to wonder if the recounts were being tallied against the certified totals that were provided to the state or to the numbers originally reported to have been counted. If it was against the certified number, then that 10K difference would have been seen, but not so if they verified the recount against their original counted version of the result. 

On the flip side, verifying a number of mail in counted to what was verified as received would not be part of a recount. They would just recount the ballots that were counted the first time. No way to catch that without this sort of audit.

The part that doesn't make sense are the vote drop numbers. That would seem to be an issue at the state level and one that would be hard not to have been found and seen even in a cursory review. It would seem to be very incurious of the number of votes for Biden and Trump state-wide would not match the totals provided by the State. I would have to know more about that before taking a side on the vote drop situation (which are murky and hard to follow in general). It sounds suspicious, but unless there are actual unaccounted for differences at the State level, I would have a hard time making a solid determination that it means much of anything.

Lastly, Maricopa county was a statistical aberration in terms of pure numbers. Joe Biden received about one and a half times (300K) more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.  While they both increased their numbers from 2016 substantially across the state of Arizona, this particular number was truly amazing for Joe Biden in a county that Trump won in 2016. 

Again, this does not suggest that satellites from Italy switched votes or that fake ballots were brought in by truck. It just provides more mathematical and statistical problems with accepting the 2020 election results at face value.


43 comments:

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

It just provides more mathematical and statistical problems with accepting the 2020 election results at face value.


 It just provides more mathematical and statistical problems with accepting the 2020 election results at face value.

You believe the big lie.

Undercutting confidence in our elections is as dangerous as war.

They were audited by a bipartisan committee, three times reported.


Indy is right.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

No way to catch that without this sort of audit. Conducted by QANON movement people

Thecoldheartedtruth is dead.


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://welovetrump.com/2021/07/11/watch-why-is-a-recount-happening-in-arizona/

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://welovetrump.com/2021/07/11/lewis-clarke-statue-removed-from-charlottesville/

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO LMAO

Anonymous said...

It began with "14 day stay at home to flatten the curve" and now it is door to door "show me your papers".

Anonymous said...

Sorry, to interupt Raging with hate and loneliness 4F-Alky.

Please continue.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

KEY FACTS

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel opened an investigation Thursday into election fraud claims in Antrim County, Michigan, that were widely pushed by the GOP, Nessel’s Press Secretary Lynsey Mukomel confirmed to Forbes, after the state Senate Oversight Committee asked the AG to investigate “those who have been utilizing misleading and false information about Antrim County to raise money or publicity for their own ends.”

The Republican-led committee issued a report stating those claims of election fraud—which alleged votes for Trump had been intentionally switched with votes for President Joe Biden—were so baseless as to be “indefensible,” and all fraud theories stemming from the Antrim County allegations “are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further.”


Mukomel did not confirm the details of the investigation, but the Associated Press notes potential targets could include attorney Matthew DePerno and former state Sen. Patrick Colbeck, who played lead roles in pushing the Antrim County claims.

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, sent a letter Wednesday to Republican state AG Mark Brnovich calling for an investigation into whether Trump and allies including Rudy Giuliani, far-right attorney Sidney Powell and Arizona GOP chair Kelli Ward violated state law prohibiting interference in elections.

Lastly, Maricopa county was a statistical aberration in terms of pure numbers. In legal terms that is an assumption. There was no evidence of fraud.

As For your Undercutting confidence in our elections. The people have the right to choose their leaders.

Just think if Trump had been elected President by a minority or popular vote, do you believe that the Democrats would have invaded the Capitol building in order to overturn the election results????

You know they would not do that, because we are not cultist Scott.

A lot of other people could be prosecuted. And like I said before That like The Godfather will probably not be in prison.

I know I'm waiting my time because....


Bonkers.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/07/09/michigan-arizona-move-to-investigate-trump-and-gops-election-interference-efforts-amid-republican-audit-push/amp/

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

suspicious

suspicious

suspicious

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

An Arizona judge on Wednesday questioned the claim that the public does not have the right to know who is funding the audit of the Maricopa County vote tally in the 2020 presidential election.

The controversial audit, a Republican state Senate-led effort to undermine the validity of former President Donald Trump's loss to Joe Biden in the previously red state, has been criticized over its methods and undisclosed sources of funding.

Caliphate4vr said...

GO OUTSIDE YOU INSANE, LONELY, PATHETIC OLD MAN

C.H. Truth said...

Wow Roger...

About 100 comments today.

Not a one had any objective factual information. All C&P liberal opinions, personal insults, or just overall craziness.


Lydia and Charlee are both correct about you!

anonymous said...

Key facts are the AZ audit results reported by Lil Schitty are as bogus as the audit it self!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

rrb said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...

KEY FACTS

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel opened an investigation Thursday into election fraud claims in Antrim County, Michigan, that were widely pushed by the GOP, Nessel’s Press Secretary Lynsey Mukomel confirmed to Forbes, after the state Senate Oversight Committee asked the AG to investigate “those who have been utilizing misleading and false information about Antrim County to raise money or publicity for their own ends.”



So alky blue anon live asshole...

I see you're a big fan of prosecuting 'thought crimes' and the suspension of First Amendment rights for those who are your political enemies.

How perfectly 'leftist' of you.

You clowns can never actually win the argument so you're left with needing to silence and destroy those you disagree with.

But it was Trump who was the totalitarian dictator and second coming of Hitler.

LOL.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://coldheartedtruthlegacy.blogspot.com/2021/07/sunday-funnier.html

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

25 posted today

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Marjorie Taylor Greene Says CRT Should Be Outlawed, Teachers Fired 'On the Spot'

BY KHALEDA RAHMAN ON 7/11/21 AT 6:12 AM EDT

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

She was elected to be the Michigan Attorney General.


A state Biden won

C.H. Truth said...

What are you babbling about Roger?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

This is the next talking point.

Social-media companies are privately owned, but when they collude with officials to block disfavored content, they are serving as the government’s censorship bureau and must answer to the First Amendment

The Wall Street Journal reports on Woke culture Detective

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Mr. Trump’s lawsuits don’t go as far as they could have in establishing a pattern of willful participation, but their discovery phase will almost surely reveal additional examples. Social-media companies are privately owned, but when they collude with officials to block disfavored content, they are serving as the government’s censorship bureau and must answer to the First Amendment.

Mr. Trump has another path to legal victory even if he loses on the state-action claim. State legislatures, most recently in Florida, have begun to impose nondiscrimination and common-carrier requirements on Big Tech platforms. Opponents say these laws violate the companies’ First Amendment rights. But if so, how could similar nondiscrimination laws have been imposed for decades on telephone companies? Opponents also say these laws are pre-empted by Section 230. But as Justice Clarence Thomas observed in his concurrence in Biden v. Knight First Amendment Institute, Section 230 is arguably unconstitutional if interpreted to pre-empt state laws against viewpoint discrimination. Mr. Trump failed to assert this claim under Florida law, though he could amend his complaint before trial to do so.

Mr. Trump’s critics are mistaken to think the claims he raises are completely novel. But the case is unprecedented in another way—the staggering scale of Big Tech’s power to restrict speech. No company in U.S. history has so comprehensively silenced elected officials or prevented them from communicating with citizens. Worse, they did so at the behest of, and in careful coordination with, government leaders in the ascendant opposition party as it gained power.

In 1924 Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover warned against the concentration of corporate power in the radio industry: “We cannot allow any single person or group to place themselves in a position where they can censor the material which shall be broadcasted to the public.” Almost a century later, the danger he foretold has been realized. Mr. Trump’s case provides an opportunity to address it.

Mr. Ramaswamy is author of “Woke Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam.”



Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The fairness Doctrine was reversed by Reagan

rrb said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...

She was elected to be the Michigan Attorney General.

A state Biden won



Oh, ok cool. So that exempts her from having to follow the US Constitution.

Got it.

This is why no one here respects you or your "intellect" at any level, alky.

You're the biggest fucking partisan hack ever to haunt this blog.

There's no basis in law, constitutional or otherwise, for the shit Nessel is pulling. You approve because she's targeting who you hate. and to you, that's all that matters.

That's all that EVER matters to you..



rrb said...

Blogger C.H. Truth said...

What are you babbling about Roger?



LOL.

He doesn't even fucking know.

So far he has advocated for the suspension of the First Amendment on the basis of partisan politics, and for the prosecution of "thought-crimes" against political enemies.

How Orwellian.

And it's Trump who is the totalitarian fascist dictator.

Oh, and we're back to the fairness doctrine.

Coming up: Marbury vs. Madison, and a refresher on Sec. 320.



rrb said...



Social-media companies are privately owned, but when they collude with officials to block disfavored content, they are serving as the government’s censorship bureau and must answer to the First Amendment


Which very precisely describes the behavior of Twitter, Facebook and Google over the past few years. They operate completely as a surrogate of the left.

Explain the factual IN-accuracies in that statement alky.

Without an alky-lanche of plagiarism, thank you.



Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-can-win-his-case-against-tech-giants-11626025357?st=758y98dq0muozwz&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Nobody can violate the Constitution, Jimmy. Repeal Marbury Vs. Madison.

The spelling might be wrong but you don't understand what it means.

No state government can enforce unconstitutional laws.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-can-win-his-case-against-tech-giants-11626025357?st=758y98dq0muozwz&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Scott, a decorated Green Beret said shut the fuck up.

As we celebrate our nation and a return to post-pandemic normalcy, I am compelled to solemnly recognize that on the state and national level, the extreme majority of the Republican Party is attempting to destroy our democracy by making it harder for hundreds of thousands of Arizonans to vote. 

It’s simply un-American and it’s against everything I fought for in service to our nation.

As a U.S. soldier decades ago, I stood up to defend our rights as Americans before I was even eligible to vote; we died and we killed defending that right and the democratic values we love. More recently as a security contractor in Iraq, my team was charged with the mission of transporting Iraqi citizens to the polls in the first free and fair election in that country in generations. We were attacked with improvised explosive devices, sped through ambushes and fought armed insurrectionists. It was a mortal lesson in defending and advancing the right to vote.

The repressive behavior we always think of as happening in “other countries” is happening right here in Arizona. The Arizona Legislature passed SB1485, and it was instantaneously signed into law by Gov. Doug Ducey. Under this legislation, approximately 200,000 Arizonans could lose their right to vote by mail, potentially including thousands of Arizona veterans — some with service-related disabilities, who rely on voting by mail to participate in our democracy. 

The Arizona Legislature and Ducey don’t care whether they are disenfranchising people who put their lives on the line to defend our country. They thank us for our service, but their behavior can not be anything more than an effort to take and keep power, at any cost. 

This madness can be stopped by passing the For the People Act, the federal proposal that will reverse and prevent Arizona and other state governments across our nation from disenfranchising American voters. This moment is a moment for courage and our United States Senators must rise to the occasion. If they do not, the consequences could be felt for generations.




David Lucier

David Lucier is president and CEO of the Arizona Veterans & Military Leadership Alliance and served as a Green Beret in the Vietnam War. He is active in numerous local Veteran and community organizations, including as co-founder of the Tempe Veterans Commission and co-founder and board member of the ASU Alumni Association - Veterans Chapter. He is also a member of the Veterans Heritage Project, Southwest Veterans Chamber of Commerce, and served on Veterans Advisory Boards for several statewide elected officials. David was inducted into the Arizona Veterans Hall of Fame in 2009.

The 4F draft dodging sob is the modern era Benedict Arnold.




Caliphate4vr said...

LOL.

He doesn't even fucking know.

So far he has advocated for the suspension of the First Amendment on the basis of partisan politics, and for the prosecution of "thought-crimes" against political enemies.

How Orwellian.

And it's Trump who is the totalitarian fascist dictator.

Oh, and we're back to the fairness doctrine.

Coming up: Marbury vs. Madison, and a refresher on Sec. 320.


The dumbfuck has gone completely round the bend, he has completely lost his faculties this is a full blown mental illness

Donald J. Trump said...

“The suburbs would have been destroyed — but they continuously fail to mention that I got 12 million more votes than I did in 2016, a record for a sitting president along with the 75 million votes, also a record. So how did that happen and how come I 'lost'? This is just more Fake News. And remember, they can say all of this, including the suburbs nonsense, because we had a rigged election!"

Anonymous said...

Yet another rainy day. Must have gotten 1/2 ".

Everything is growing great, so green.

Anonymous said...

"rrbJuly 11, 2021 at 6:14 PM

Blogger C.H. Truth said...

What are you babbling about Roger?


LOL.

He doesn't even fucking know."

Too funny, even Roger's many id's are getting increasingly dumber.


Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

REUTERS FACT CHECK
JULY 2, 20211:28 PMUPDATED 9 DAYS AGO
Fact Check-Results of disputed Maricopa County, Arizona vote audit not yet released (as of July 2)
By Reuters Fact Check

An audit of 2020 U.S. presidential election results in Maricopa County, Arizona, has not shown that former U.S. President Donald Trump won over 700,000 more votes than previously thought. The results of the audit have not yet been released as of this article’s publication. The audit itself, ordered by the Republican-controlled state Senate, has also been criticized by elected leaders and the Arizona Secretary of State, who says it will have no bearing on the official results. Maricopa County election results have already been certified on multiple occasions by hand-count and forensic audits, and several lawsuits undermining the results have not succeeded in changing the outcome in Arizona.

The posts lay out what they claim are the findings of the audit: “The Maricopa County Audit Team’s Findings. Trump 2,373,838 - Remember, Trumps original vote count was 1,661,686. Trump’s “official” vote total represents a staggering reduction of 712,152. Biden total= 1,286,264. The original Biden vote total was 1,672,143. The audit discovered that Biden’s votes decreased by 385,879. […] the audit team found that the vote flipped by approximately 1.1 million votes. This means that over one-third of the vote was stolen by Democratic Party operatives.”

Captions include, “Trump won again” and “AND THE WINNER IS!!!!!!”.

President Joe Biden, a Democrat, flipped Arizona by a margin of just over 10,000 votes out of more than 3.3 million cast state-wide. Official presidential election results seen here and here show that Biden beat Trump in Arizona by 1,672,143 votes to 1,661,686. Biden also won in Maricopa County (where the capital Phoenix is located) by 1,040,774 votes to 995,665. As such, the figures in the social media posts for the official vote totals (Biden: 1,672,143; Trump: 1,661,686) are correct for both candidates.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

In April, the state Senate ordered an audit of about 2.1 million ballots cast in Maricopa County, where about 62 percent of Arizona's population resides.

The results of the audit have yet to be released. Julie Fisher, Deputy Senate Liaison in Arizona and a spokesperson for the Arizona Audit, told Reuters via email on July 1, “The report and audit data have not been released.”

No results have been posted by the official website arizonaaudit.com/or Twitter account here and there have been no media reports showing the results. The paper examination and counting finished on June 25, according to a post by the official Twitter account. As of this article’s publication, this was their latest tweet.

One post claims the results were received from the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office Facebook page (www.facebook.com/MCSOaz/),. However, the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office told Reuters via email that it had not posted the results of the audit. Reuters found no posts with this data on the Facebook page.

Arizona’s election results have already been certified, and this review will not change them, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs's office has said.

Fifteen hand-count audits, including three in Maricopa County, were conducted for the 2020 General Election in Arizona, all of which found either no discrepancies or “discrepancies within the acceptable margin.” Maricopa County also conducted a forensic audit of ballot counting for the 2020 elections where the election equipment and software passed tests performed by two independent firms.

Several lawsuits filed against the results and counting process of the 2020 presidential election in Arizona have failed to overturn Biden’s win in Arizona.

Reuters has previously debunked claims related to the Maricopa County audit and ballots.

VERDICT
False. The results of the Maricopa County audit have not yet been released as of July 2, this article’s publication.

This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here .

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The Gateway Pundit’s journalist Jordan Conradson interviewed audit spokesman Randy Pullen for an update on this historic process.
Transcript as it follows:

Conradson: Can you tell me about what’s going on today?

Pullen: Really, they’re just wrapping up the aggregation. They ran all the numbers last week and they’re just going through, making the last final changes to the numbers, updating them because we got updated numbers from the county on how many ballots were removed and duplicated because they’re was problems with them. We got new numbers so we’re just going through and adding in all of those numbers to get everything right. We should be finished we think probably by tomorrow at the latest.

Conradson: Can you tell us how long you expect to be in this building?

Pullen: A week. I think we’ll be done by the end of next week.

Conradson: I heard some counting machines will be brought in today. Is that true?

Pullen: You heard right, yes. We have counting machines coming in. They’re going to arrive tomorrow morning. We have a technician coming in to run the counting machines and all of the ballots will be run through and counted officially.

Conradson: You said you might be out of here by the end of next week. Does that mean you’ll have a total number of ballots?

Pullen: All of the physical work will be done. We will be down to writing the audit report.

Conradson: And the audit report will be released when?

Pullen: It’s probably going to take about a month to do it. We need to draft it, then review it, and get it finalized. Probably a month.

Conradson: Are we expecting a preliminary report at all?

Pullen: I don’t know that’s actually the Senate that will make that decision and as far as I know, there has been no discussion about that.

Conradson: But they will have those results by the end of next week?

Pullen: I don’t know if it will happen by the end of next week. I think we’ll have results by the end of the week next week for sure because we’re going to start writing the report.

Anonymous said...

BIDENOMICS Suck

"Prices surged in the second quarter of 2021 by 40 percent"

Remember that many coal fired plant generation was switched to this fuel for heating and electric power generation.

Those cost will be passed thru to the poor and middle income.

California has 200 natural gas electric power generation plants.

I love a success story.

Commonsense said...

No state government can enforce unconstitutional laws.

The law has to actually be unconstitutional, not what Roger Amick thinks is unconstitutional. And if Roger Amick actuality read the Constitution, he would find out that states have the absolute power to choose the time places and method election except where Congress alters such power.

And so far Congress has had a pretty light touch.

rrb said...



The law has to actually be unconstitutional, not what Roger Amick thinks is unconstitutional.


This is exactly why the left is so eager to pack the USSC. They think that everything that they disagree with or hurts their fee-wings is automatically unconstitutional, the actual constitution be damned.

rrb said...


Blogger Roger Amick said...

Scott, a decorated Green Beret said shut the fuck up.



Oh look. Another person with an opinion.

I'll bet he has an asshole too.

LOL.


C.H. Truth said...

Reverend...

I work in the Financial software industry. I can't count how many times I have been involved with an issue that involves auditors.

What I can tell you is this.

In the real world, there is no auditors from any independent organization responsible for audits that would allow the same accountants who did the books, to audi themselves. The IRS does not come along and order a company to do an internal audit.

They bring in an IRS auditor or possibly a third Party. By nature, the inspection is done by an independent Party.


It's simply a semantic gaslight lie to suggest that an audit was done when the same people who counted the votes did the "audit" themselves. But what I find most humorous is that the same people who want to question the motivations or independence of these Arizona auditors seem perfectly acceptable with an "audit" being done by the same people who are being questioned.



Something that would never happen:

IRS: We believe that there may be some discrepancies in your numbers

Company: No need to worry, we did an internal audit and everything is fine.

IRS: Well if that is the case, we trust you 100% and there is no need for us to take a look. Thanks for saving us that time.

Commonsense said...

Social-media companies are privately owned, but when they collude with officials to block disfavored content, they are serving as the government’s censorship bureau and must answer to the First Amendment

As constitutional theory this is a stretch. But stranger things have happen.