Let’s look at the implications of this, first through the lens of Senate elections, then through the lens of House elections. I’ve explored Senate elections in this article. As the chart near the bottom indicates, when Biden was hovering around 52% job approval, Democrats were heavily favored to maintain control of the Senate. The most likely outcome for the party was that it would actually gain a seat.
But Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate were slated to drop off quickly if the president’s job approval fell any further. At 50%, they would be expected to break even, but would lose control about one time out of four. At 49% job approval, the Senate is considered 50-50.
At 46%? Democrats would lose between four and zero seats 95% of the time, with an expected outcome of two seats. They only retain control about 4% of the time. This is obviously an outcome Democrats would like to avoid.
Sean talks deeper about the House, while suggesting that the normal line of thinking would put the House losses for Democrats somewhere around 18. That seems fair, but as he states, there are questions about redistricting and all sorts of other issues involved.
If the Democrats lose 2 seats in the Senate and 18 seats in the House then pretty much that is the end of the Biden presidency. I am no prophet, but I suspect Dementia Joe is not in line for a second term run right now.
Bottom line is that Joe Biden's average approval has fallen under 46% at this point. I think it takes something on his part to stop the bleeding and I am not sure he is capable (without a big win) of seeing those mid-50 approvals he enjoyed early on.
If Covid doesn't go away, people will begin to blame him for that. After all the buck stops with the President and he claimed he had a fool proof plan to stop Covid in its tracks. He obviously didn't have any plan other than what was already in place and of course a plan to take credit if things went well and to point fingers if it didn't. That plan he is executing fine, but just hasn't really been able to turn that execution into success.
17 comments:
Harris has been wasting a golden opportunity to look presidential. Where the hell is she?
Probably hiding in Joe's basement. Worked for him.
Come to think of it where's Hunter?
or the "big guy"
FBI is having a hell of the time tracking those two down
You might be looking like me when I said Kerry in landslide because
Investors are now looking ahead to August’s nonfarm payrolls report — released Friday morning — which could give clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will remove easy monetary policy. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 720,000 jobs were added in the month, down from 943,000 jobs added in July. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.2%, compared to 5.4% in July.
Forecasts for the report are wide-ranging, from about 300,000 to 1 million.
If they reach 500,000+ you will be silent
I saw that on RCP page this morning and I knew you would post it
You also don't mention that the house and Senate are back in session and the other will pass both bills before Thanksgiving day.
If the economy continues to grow and as most important is more people are getting vaccinated in high numbers.
Historically speaking the party in power loses control
But the world is changing
I am no prophet, but I suspect Kerry will win in a landslide.
I am no prophet, but I suspect Dementia Joe is not in line for a second term run right now.
I actually watched him speak today and before and not once did I see evidence of dementia symptoms.
I see people like that every day asshole and I know that he's not Deranged like you have become
If covid goes away you will say that DeSantis and Noem were correct.
And the assisted living alky is Deranged
If the president rebounds, Democrats will have a successful 2022...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2021/09/02/bidens_job_approval_has_entered_dangerous_territory.html
You also don't mention that the house and Senate are back in session and the other two bills will pass both bills before Thanksgiving day.
If the economy continues to grow and as most important is more people are getting vaccinated in high numbers
Historically speaking the party in power loses control
But the world is changing.
The Democrats have to get out the vote!
If the economy reaches higher than Trump, the suburban women will turnout in record numbers???
This is not 1979!
Roger, my kid is flying to Missoula tomorrow to play for some select side to play in Maggotfest. Guys from all over the country, they just asked him to get there
http://www.maggots.org/maggotfest/
Drops below 47%?
Trump never even got that high!
Just keep on showing us those averages.
Meanwhile,
DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 17:16 EDT, 2 September 2021 | UPDATED: 17:22 EDT, 2 September 2021
President Trump said that his one-time close ally and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley can't decide how she feels about him.
'Every time she criticizes me, she uncriticizes me about 15 minutes later,' the former president told Vanity Fair.
Haley, like a number of other Republicans, is rumored to be considering a 2024 run for the GOP nomination, but will have to wait until after Trump has decided if he is running.
Meanwhile, Trump kept up his criticism of his vice president Mike Pence, saying that he shot any chance at the nomination by certifying the vote count in Congress in January.
'Mike hurt himself very badly when he didn’t send the numbers back to the legislatures,' Trump said.
Trump tapped Haley for UN ambassador, where she served from Jan. 2017 to Dec. 2018, and even made the role a Cabinet position.
Upon her resignation, the New York Times editorial page noted Haley was 'that rarest of Trump appointees: one who can exit the administration with her dignity largely intact.'
The former South Carolina governor was largely loyal to Trump, even parroting the possibility of election fraud in the weeks following Nov. 3.
She called Trump after the election. 'I want to make sure you're okay,' she told him. 'You're my president, but you're also my friend.'
But after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Haley distanced herself, appealing to a more centrist base.
'He was badly wrong with his words yesterday. And it wasn't just his words. His actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history,' Haley told a Republican National Committee in Florida on Jan. 7.
A month later, she took it even further, telling Politico: 'When I tell you I'm angry, it's an understatement…. I am so disappointed in the fact that [despite] the loyalty and friendship he had with Mike Pence, that he would do that to him. Like, I'm disgusted by it.'
Haley, who hadn't spoken to Trump since the riot, was doubtful that he would ever run again.
'I think he's going to find himself further and further isolated,' Haley said. 'I think his business is suffering at this point. I think he's lost any sort of political viability he was going to have. I think he's lost his social media, which meant the world to him. I mean, I think he's lost the things that really could have kept him moving.'
'He's not going to run for federal office again,' Haley said.
BUT NOW WATCH HER DO THE TRUMP SHUFFLE:
But Haley told the Associated Press in April she would back Trump and would not run if he did.
At that time she also defended Trump amid his attacks on Pence and Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
'I think former President Trump's always been opinionated,' Haley said, asked about his comments and if they hurt the GOP.
'Just because he left being president, that's not going to stop. But I think what he also talked about were all the successes that he had in the administration. And I think that's what Republicans are uniting on. ... Every day Biden and Kamala Harris are in office unites the Republicans.'
YOU HOPE.
Haley is now stuck in limbo along with every other Republican considering a run for the presidency.
'It's a holding pattern,' a frustrated Haley adviser told Vanity Fair. 'It's unlike any previous race.'
Trump refuses to say whether he'll run in 2024, but told Fox News' Sean Hannity in August: 'Let me put it this way, I think you’ll be happy and I think a lot of our friends will be very happy.'
Insiders believe he is basking in the 'will he or won't he' agony other prospective Republicans are grappling with.
'Knowing Trump, he’ll dangle it right up to the New Hampshire primary filing deadline,' one Trump confidant said.
SO WATCH THE CAPTAIN TAKE THE SHIP DOWN WITH HIM.
Hi James.
You used Trumps name 23 times on this thread, bizzaro.
And people groaned 23 times, magnifico.
"If they reach 500,000+" Roger
IF That happens I will cheer and hope for more and prosperity as I have said before.
If the president rebounds, Democrats will have a successful
And if the president doesn’t?
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