Some how Nate Silver and gang always seem to find a manner to keep the Democrat either in the lead or in this case tied, even though the polling averages suggest something different. Of course, this is consistent with the pattern of Nate Silver. He is wrong quite often when he shows a Democrat leading. He has yet to ever be wrong showing a Republican leading. So at this point Nate Silver is sticking to the guns that McAuliffe is still at least tied. I suspect over the weekend there will be a couple more obscure on-line polls showing McAuliffe ahead, and once again Nate Silver and 538 will show the former Governor favored to win.
Obviously I think this is probably a tight race everything considered and it could still go either way. But sometimes polls are polls are polls are polls and you need to just add em up and average em out.
29 comments:
Nate Silver's 538
Who’s ahead in the Virginia governor’s race?
An updating average for each candidate, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
McAuliffe ahead by only +.01
Nate Silver is, first and foremost, a partisan hack. And like the hacks that frequent this blog with their idiot aliases, he just can't help it.
This is why he hates Nate Silver.
However, it does seem as if more Americans — including Republicans — might be willing to fault Trump this time around than after Charlottesville. That poll from Morning Consult found, for instance, that 63 percent of registered voters think Trump was responsible for the mob attack in Washington, including 41 percent of Republicans. Similarly, 66 percent of voters told YouGov that Trump was to blame, though in that poll, only 28 percent of Republicans agreed.
What happened following Charlottesville might still provide some clues to where things will go from here. After the Unite the Right rally, there was some splintering among far-right groups, according to Alex Newhouse, the research lead at the Center on Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism at Middlebury College. The Proud Boys, for example, battled internal turmoil over some members’ attendance at the rally and some of its leaders made an effort to distance the group from white supremacy, at least on paper, Newhouse said. But other far-right groups were roused by the events in Charlottesville.
“Despite the public outrage, despite the death of a woman and the arrests that followed, the white supremacists were emboldened, especially after the president said there were ‘fine people on both sides,’” said Greenblatt.
For the wider American public, Charlottesville was a wake-up call that revealed how hearty the white supremacist and neo-Nazi movements remain in the United States. But while many politicians, including Republicans, condemned the rally, Trump’s response only further bolstered existing far-right views, Newhouse said.
“These far-right groups were feeling more and more isolated from mainstream media and mainstream politics, and some of them saw Trump as their only defender in that,” Newhouse said.
There are many differences between these two events, but one important distinction is the fact that, as Greenblatt mentioned, the Unite the Right rally was attended almost exclusively by white nationalists, while Wednesday’s insurrection at the Capitol included many more people who aren’t part of an organized white supremacist group. This, Greenblatt stressed, is concerning as it indicates that these ideas are seeping out of the fringes and into the mainstream. And that seepage, combined with fears over white identity and Trump’s incitement, may have broadened Republican receptiveness to political violence. A January 2020 study of Republican voters by political scientist Larry Bartels found that 51 percent agreed that the “traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.”
And these dramatic events are products of a much larger issue: Faith in our institutions and in democracy itself is eroding in this country. Last year, a report from the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group found that a third of Americans had supported authoritarian ideas at some point in the previous three years, and polling from YouGov Blue that our colleagues reported on last year found that Republicans, in particular, were souring on democracy and the institutions that uphold it. As the events of Wednesday make frighteningly clear, this is not simply a philosophical debate. It’s a real and present threat to our very way of life
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-helped-take-extremist-views-from-the-fringes-of-society-to-a-mob-attacking-the-capitol/
You just know that team McAuliffe is getting their 'steal' on if they just hired this fucking scumbag -
Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe’s campaign has made a late-game push before the election, spending nearly $60,000 on a high-profile attorney known for representing Democrats and masterminding some election-related legal challenges.
Less than a month before the end of McAuliffe’s race against Republican Glenn Youngkin, records show, the Democrat’s campaign spent $53,680 on the services of the Elias Law Group, a new firm started earlier this year by Marc Elias.
https://news.yahoo.com/mcauliffe-spends-big-final-days-140419044.html
Elias is evil. Someone needs to 'Vince Foster' his ass.
https://clk.messaging.go.com/c/62/v/NTYyMjIwOTI1/bcasts/3006040282/click?dXNlcklkPSU3QkMwM0UzNDVFLTkxRjgtNDlBMC05OTgyLTMyMjMyOTUyOUVCQiU3RCZiY2FzdElkPTMwMDYwNDAyODImckxhYmVsPSU3QkMwM0UzNDVFLTkxRjgtNDlBMC05OTgyLTMyMjMyOTUyOUVCQiU3RCZjaD1FTUFJTCZlYT1oYWxmYmFrZWRAeWFob28uY29tJnNpZz1FRHBPS0NwbklwY1VGNEZPY2Vib1pCOVZoMDQ
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden is spinning a convoluted tale of an Amtrak conductor who congratulated him during his vice presidency for logging more miles riding the train home to Delaware than by flying on Air Force Two.
“I apologize because some have heard this,” Biden told a crowd Monday in New Jersey, starting up a story he has repeated in various forms at least five times, dating back to the 2020 campaign.
“I swear to God. True story,” he said Monday, for emphasis.
But it’s a mangled one.
By his own accounting, Biden’s Amtrak miles over the years only surpassed his Air Force Two miles after the conductor who supposedly informed him of that fact had died. Moreover, the conductor had retired about two decades before the conversation Biden claims to have had with him while boarding a train.
https://apnews.com/article/ap-fact-check-biden-amtrak-e79af0cd7015ea3d559609817cceb144
The conductor's name was 'Corn Pop' and he was drunk when he crashed into Slow Joe's wife and kid. In an urban jungle. Back when poor kids were just as smart as white kids because their parents left the record player on. So they could watch FDR give a speech on television.
Keep threatening others. Inciting violence is a crime. A report to the FBI is possible. Fair warning.
FiveThirtyEight is tracking Donald Trump’s popularity after he ended his presidency as the most unpopular of the last 12 presidents.
His current favorability is still a dismal 41.4% to 53%.
George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley wrote that McAuliffe hiring Elias is an "astonishing move."
"There are a host of election lawyers but McAuliffe selected an attorney accused of lying to the media, advancing rejected conspiracy theories, and currently involved in a major federal investigation that has already led to the indictment of his former partner," Turley wrote.
"McAuliffe may be preparing to challenge any win by Republican Glenn Youngkin," he wrote on Twitter.
Fox News reached out to the McAuliffe campaign for comment on Turley's suggestion. McAuliffe spokesperson Christina Freundlich responded to the email with a message apparently meant for colleagues, not for Fox News.
"Can we try to kill this," Freundlich wrote.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/team-mcauliffe-emails-reveal-effort-to-kill-this-fox-news-story.amp
LOL @ the alky...
"Hello? FBI? Yes, this is Roger Amick, a concerned citizen. I'm calling from the confines of my nursing home to report behavior online that I find suspicious and threatening."
"You see, I live 24/7/365 on an obscure political blog - The Coldheartedtruth. Perhaps you've heard of it? No?"
"Well anyway, there's a commenter there who I just don't like. You see, he picks on me because I'm an alcoholic loser who has destroyed multiple marriages, lost everything to a Nigerian Prince email scam, drank my God-given liver to death so I needed a transplant, threatened suicide multiple times to strangers on Facebook, and am now confined to a nursing home."
"Yes, that's Amick, A M I C K."
"Why yes, I have had multiple restraining orders sworn out against me by one of my ex-wives. Well yes, I suppose I did threaten her with bodily harm on multiple occasions. But..."
*CLICK*
"Hello? Hello? FBI?"
Be prepared for the end of the American Dream.
In a second Trump presidency, however, the burglars will arrive already knowing how to bypass the alarms and disable the locks. He’ll understand that it’s not enough to install an ally as attorney general—he must control the secondary and tertiary ranks of the Justice Department too. He won’t allow himself to be talked into another chief of staff with an independent sense of duty, such as John Kelly, who averted much harm from the middle of 2017 to the beginning of 2019. It’ll be Mark Meadows types from day one to day last. And he’ll bring with them a new generation of Republican officeholders whose top priority will be rearranging their states’ election laws so that Republicans do not lose power even if they lose the vote.
That’s the future Trump is preparing.
Be ready.
David Frum
A conservative Republican.
So what
In Nov 2016 Frum publicly announced that he was voting for Hillary. He's no conservative and he hates Trump. Who cares what he thinks?
Whitehouse announces that they're gonna add more regulation to the oil and gas industry. On purpose. Damn this guy is clueless.
Democrats are running scared in Virginia. I believe their house of delegates is up for re-election.
Lose the governorship and lose the legislature. That would be an unmitigated disaster.
Whitehouse announces that they're gonna add more regulation to the oil and gas industry. On purpose. Damn this guy is clueless.
I don't think he can find the 60 votes he will need to pass it. Even Democrats would balk at that idea.
Roger is more than usually hysterical today.
rrb said...
LOL @ the alky...
"Hello? FBI? Yes, this is Roger Amick, a concerned citizen. I'm calling from the confines of my nursing home to report behavior online that I find suspicious and threatening."
"You see, I live 24/7/365 on an obscure political blog - The Coldheartedtruth. Perhaps you've heard of it? No?"
"Well anyway, there's a commenter there who I just don't like. You see, he picks on me because I'm an alcoholic loser who has destroyed multiple marriages, lost everything to a Nigerian Prince email scam, drank my God-given liver to death so I needed a transplant, threatened suicide multiple times to strangers on Facebook, and am now confined to a nursing home."
"Yes, that's Amick, A M I C K."
"Why yes, I have had multiple restraining orders sworn out against me by one of my ex-wives. Well yes, I suppose I did threaten her with bodily harm on multiple occasions. But..."
*CLICK*
"Hello? Hello? FBI?"
now that is funny, and true
btw I saw the top-5 iTunes Hip Hop/Rap tunes are now all different versions of "Let's Go Brandon"
I think Biden is leading a seismic shift among the minority youth or at least opening their eyes.
I don't think it's roger listening to them in his room
You forgot
I'm off to the gym now...
This is Three Socialist Stooges of CHT stupid.
Biden policies have caused inflation and hampered Gas/oil supply/ production.
"On Thursday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Lead,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that natural gas prices “are high” because “the supplies are not as robust as they have been.”
MyballsOctober 29, 2021 at 7:07 AM
Whitehouse announces that they're gonna add more regulation to the oil and gas industry. On purpose. Damn this guy is clueless"
Yep.
Biden's Economic Policies hurt Average Americans.
Oil/ Gas is under attack causing ever higher prices.
"There’s a place for” regulation and “We’re going to use it.” McCarthy also touted hearings with oil executives on Capitol Hill as “a day of reckoning” for the oil and gas industry."
This is Three Socialist Stooges of CHT Stupid
Anonymous Myballs said...
Whitehouse announces that they're gonna add more regulation to the oil and gas industry. On purpose. Damn this guy is clueless.
Between this and Slow Joe wanting to pay illegal criminal aliens $450,000.00 each, the question I find myself asking each day is -
"If a group of individuals set out to destroy the US from within, what, if anything, would they be doing differently than what democrats and the Biden administration are doing right fucking now???"
Answer: Nothing. Not a goddamned thing.
"On Thursday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Lead,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that natural gas prices “are high” because “the supplies are not as robust as they have been.”
In other news - water is wet, the sun always rises in the east, and we're all going to die someday.
SOLD OUT for 2022
Dirty stupid Myopic Joe
"Bloomberg) -- Almost every lump of coal that U.S. miners will dig out of the ground next year has already been sold, as surging natural gas prices prompt utilities to burn more of the dirtiest fossil fuel."
MY, MY, FANCY THIS!
Biden’s Hidden Win
PLAYBOOK SAYS:
“Just when it looked like the day would end in embarrassment for Democrats,
the Congressional Progressive Caucus issues a surprise endorsement of the president’s compromise plan — removing one of the last big obstacles in its way."
MY, MY!
“The CPC’s decision to back the new BBB framework got drowned out by the group’s refusal to allow a BIF vote Thursday before full text was drafted.
"That deprived Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the vote she was determined to hold on BIF, and yielded lots of headlines about Democrats’ failure to clinch the win.
“But the dispute over sequencing masked a major achievement for the president:
Hill progressives now appear ready to swallow this deal — and that means it’s likely a matter of when, not if, it passes.
“The fact that the group isn’t making demands for major changes is quite something given that many of their priorities were significantly scaled back as moderates got most of what they wanted.”
My, my, my my my!
Of course, this must only be Taegan GODdard propaganda
-- but wait! It's Playbook speaking.
My, my, my!
Reuters:
Trump’s Brand Is Hurting His Business
“Trump’s business brand was once synonymous with wealth and success, an image that now clashes sharply with a political brand rooted in the anger of his largely rural and working-class voter base. His presidency is now associated in the minds of many with its violent end, as supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.
YOU MEAN THOSE INNOCENT PEACEFUL PROTESTERS WHO WERE REALLY ONLY TOURISTS?
Those searing images, along with years of bitter rhetoric, are costing Trump money. Revenues from some of his high-end properties have declined, vacancies in office buildings have increased,and his lenders are warning that the company’s revenues may not be sufficient to cover his debt payments.”
POOR GUY!
Biden’s Hidden Win
So hidden nobody can find it.
So it's a Biden win that the liberal socialist democrats had to bend over and take it?
Certainly a win for Manchin and Sinema. But Biden just looks desperate.
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