Update:
The turnout is much higher than anticipated, which means a larger than anticipated same day in person turnout, which is what Youngkin was looking for. According to Cohn, if there was a needle, Youngkin would be sitting about 2 points ahead.
Youngkin continues to have the advantage, now with over 1000 precincts counted.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2021
It's close. Maybe Youngkin's favored to win by 2 points. But there really any bright spots for McAuliffe at the moment. pic.twitter.com/va5Zu0v34n
Early exit poll numbers look troublesome for McAuliffe
It would appear by the number that McAuliffe will win the mail in ballots somewhere in the vicinity of 20-24%. Assuming those numbers are accurate based on partisan breakdown (53 Dem 31 GOP 16 IND). Those early voters make up around 44% of the vote.
On the flip side, those voting today will make up around 56% of the overall vote based on the numbers we are seeing. Exit polls show that same day voters are favoring Youngkin by around 19%.
If that holds up, then Youngkin would win rather comfortably.
McAuliffe need to either needs to win the mail in vote by larger margins then the partisan breakdown suggests, have these exit polls prove to be really really wrong, or end up that same day voting turned out incredibly depressed.
Certainly the fat lady is not even warming up yet. Exit polling is hugely unreliable, but that being said it seems more often than not to have a bias towards the Democrat.
67 comments:
Tractor-trailer loads of mail in ballots for McAuliffe are staged and ready to be delivered tomorrow starting around 3 AM.
The only question I have is when the clowns on Fox News call it for McAuliffe. Before or after midnight tonight? Put a poll on the side bar to make it interesting.
Democrats will have to wait for the in person voting to be complete so they can target how many votes they need to "deliver"
that's why elections are never over anymore on election night.
Funny how Germany can do their entire paper ballot elections and have them counted by the next morning. We spend zillions on electronic voting and need longer and longer...now weeks and even months
Those other countries must all be suppressing the vote of minorities.
The government is forcing children to be guinea pigs
Smirk at..
Children ages 5 to 11 are on the cusp of being able to get a Covid-19 vaccine after a key CDC panel unanimously voted Tuesday to recommend Pfizer’s doses for younger kids.
The final decision now rests with CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who is expected to accept the recommendation by the agency’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Once she signs off, which is expected as soon as late Tuesday, vaccinations for young kids could begin immediately.
Some parents say they are counting down the minutes until U.S. regulators clear the shots, so their kids can get back to “normal” in-person learning, sports and other extracurricular activities that were largely put on hold due to the pandemic.
The vaccine will be given to kids in smaller doses, one-third of the dosage given to teens and adults.
“Too many children have either lost a parent or become orphaned in this pandemic, which is incredibly tragic,” committee member Dr. Camille Kotton said just before the vote. “So as an infectious disease specialist and a mother who has vaccinated both of her children, I am fully supportive of recommending this vaccine for this age cohort.”
Children are generally less likely than adults to suffer from severe cases of Covid, but a small portion of them do, Walensky told the committee prior to the vote. At least 2,316 kids ages 5 to 11 have suffered from multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C, a rare but serious Covid-related complication, according to data shared by the CDC at the meeting.
In addition, there have been at least 1.9 million Covid cases in the age group, 8,300 hospitalizations and at least 94 deaths, CDC advisor Dr. Matthew Daley told the committee. The burden of the pandemic extends beyond case counts, he said, adding Covid has caused school closures nationwide.
“The chances a child will have severe Covid, require hospitalization or develop a long-term complication like MIS-C remains low,” Walensky said. “But still the risk remains too high and too devastating to our children and far higher for many other diseases for which we vaccinate our children.”
Fully vaccinating 1 million kids ages 5 to 11 would prevent 58,000 Covid infections, 241 hospitalizations, 77 intensive care unit stays and one death, according to a modeled scenario published by the Food and Drug Administration last week. Up to 106 kids would suffer from vaccine-induced myocarditis but most would recover, according to the agency. Fake news robotics pjmedia said it is false allegations
The FDA granted emergency approval for the shots Friday. The White House said Monday it began the process of moving 15 million doses from Pfizer’s freezers and facilities to distribution centers. The Biden administration said it’s procured enough vaccine to inoculate all 28 million 5- to 11-year-olds in the U.S. and will distribute it in smaller dosing and with smaller needles to make it easier for pediatricians and pharmacists to administer to kids.
It will castrate you boys or make them queers or pedophiles like The Rev James
Democrats will have to wait for the in person voting to be complete so they can target how many votes they need to "deliver"
Absolutely. Not all of those tractor-trailer loads of ballots will be needed, but by say, 1 AM or so, a vote count will be known, as will the number of fake ballots required to swing this to McAuliffe. And all of this will happen in the bright sunshine light of day, with the media being silent on it or simply laughing it off as not happening or impossible.
These thieving cocksuckers know no shame, and will stoop to any level to steal it.
JAMESNEWBRANDON, is a lot like Alky, they can cut n post, but when challenged , they cut n run.
Zero debating skills.
Joe with dildo up his adss begging for oil and natural gas at G20.
What an embarrassment.
Those early voters are hardcore partisans. They would likely not change their mind.
Fully vaccinating 1 million kids ages 5 to 11 would prevent 58,000 Covid infections, 241 hospitalizations, 77 intensive care unit stays and one death, according to a modeled scenario published by the Food and Drug Administration last week.
This is the most asinine fucking thing I've heard this week so far.
Putting kids at risk of serious adverse reactions to prevent one death.
One death.
This is why you're on lockdown alky. If you think this is a good thing you are a threat to yourself and others.
Pjmedia LMAO
Virginia Department of Elections Commissioner Chris Piper issued a statement on Tuesday afternoon after reports of voters being turned away from polling places for not masking surfaced.
“We have gotten several reports of voters either being turned away or being made to wait until the polling place is clear before being allowed to vote if they refuse to wear a mask,” Piper wrote. “You may not turn voters away because they are not wearing masks.”
“While masks are encouraged, every eligible voter is entitled to cast a ballot at their polling place. It is not sufficient to offer curbside voting as an alternative,” he added.
“Additionally,” Piper said, “you may not hold up the line to vote based on whether voters are wearing masks.”
Original story:
Virginia doesn’t require an ID to vote, but is there anything at all that can prevent someone from voting in the state? Well, it turns out that at least one precinct in Fairfax County, Va., is requiring masking in order to enter the polling place. A Fairfax County resident reached out to PJ Media to report that he and his wife were turned away at the door because they were not wearing masks. “You can’t enter the building without a mask,” they were told by a woman stationed at the door, presumably a poll worker. The woman said that the couple and their children—one of whom is a two-year-old with medical issues that preclude him from wearing a mask—would be required to mask up or they would not be allowed to enter the building.
Jimmy Hitler Jr. Wants a new civil war to begin sooner than before because the if pillow man said Thanksgiving night Trump will be sworn in! Take up arms
If it’s close enough to fix, it will be fixed.
This is the most asinine fucking thing I've heard this week so far.
Putting kids at risk of serious adverse reactions to prevent one death.
One death.
This is why you're on lockdown alky. If you think this is a good thing you are a threat to yourself and others.
"106 kids would suffer from vaccine-induced myocarditis but most would recover"
most, but how many won't and how many will die ?
without knowing long-term impact
Fauci has turned into possibly Trumps biggest mistake
his failure to clean up the FBI leadership is in contention
those were his 2 biggest disasters
This is why you're on lockdown alky. If you think this is a good thing you are a threat to yourself and others.
be kind to alky
he's rooting for the little billionaires
Tom Hartman Trump and his cronies are guilty of mass murder.
Trump not only caused over 130,000 Americans to die unnecessarily (according to Dr. Deborah Birx's sworn testimony before Congress last week), but there's a pile of evidence — which I'll lay out below — that he did it because he believed the virus was hitting Blue states and Black people the hardest.
If this is true (and I'm building a case here that it is), it's called second-degree murder, which, to use the definitions of the State of Florida where Trump lives (there is no federal homicide law) constitutes:
"The unlawful killing of a human being, when perpetrated by any act imminently dangerous to another and evincing a depraved mind regardless of human life, although without any premeditated design to effect the death of any particular individual, is murder in the second degree and constitutes a felony of the first degree, punishable by imprisonment for a term of years not exceeding life…"
Like Al Capone.
Fyi troll squad asshole I am not locked down.
I can come and go anytime and have visitors who have to immunized..
About Those Exit Polls
November 2, 2021 at 5:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 228 Comments
Preliminary exit polls [LINK] are floating around but everyone should beware of drawing conclusions from exit polling released while people are still voting.
In other words, they’re not worth much at this point.
After the election, they’ll be weighted to the final result and could tell us something interesting about the electorate.
LINK at politicawire.com
I can come and go anytime and have visitors who have to immunized..
not tossed quite as much as the last one
Jason Furman
@jasonfurman
My guess is the majority of Americans with a net worth of $50 to $300 million would get a tax cut under the Build Back Better plan with a full repeal of SALT.
The bill would do more for the super-rich than it does for climate change, childcare or preschool.
That's obscene.
link at twitter @jasonfurman
LINKat twitter @jasonfurman
ROFLMFAO !!!
Most Virginia voters favor worker vaccine mandates, early exit polling finds
By Emily Guskin and Scott Clement
A slight majority of Virginia voters favored employers requiring the coronavirus vaccine for their employees, while just over 4 in 10 opposed such a measure, according to early network exit polling.
It favors the Democrats.
Disclose.tv
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1455635962940252170
NEW - U.S.-based pharmaceutical giant #Pfizer is "making a killing" amid pandemic, now expects $36 billion (up 7.5%) of vaccine sales this year after Q3 update.
billionaires doing great under Biden
Big Pharma doing great under Biden
Hunter doing great under pops
Uyghur slaves, not so well
kids, not so well
win some, lose some
https://apnews.com/article/virginia-election-ap-votecast-survey-75520c5c9a245bee384526abc138a61a
Preliminary exit polls [LINK] are floating around but everyone should beware of drawing conclusions from exit polling released while people are still voting.
In other words, they’re not worth much at this point.
I am trying to remember the last time liberals were the ones to suggest we shouldn't pay attention to exit polling. Generally exit polling is overstating Democratic support and it's conservatives saying we need to take it with a grain of salt.
But for whatever reasons, most of the liberals out there are discounting the exit polling and pointing to other factors (such as anecdotal stories of long lines in liberal counties) as the reason why McAuliffe will win.
Who knows who will win. I believe it will be a close down drawn out into tomorrow sort of result based on nothing more than experience. Virginia is traditionally not a slow counting state, but I have a feeling that things will be taking more time tonight than we generally would see.
100%,agree
538
Will Critical Race Theory Prove A Potent Issue In The Virginia Governor’s Race?
In case you needed further proof that targeting “wokeness” is still political catnip for the GOP, look no further than the Virginia governor’s race, where Youngkin is pledging to ban critical race theory on his first day of office if elected the commonwealth’s next governor.
Indeed, education battles — like the aforementioned culture war to debates over mask mandates in schools — have been the focus of each candidate’s final push to capture the governor’s office, with Youngkin hoping to tap into conservative voters’ fears around what their children are being taught. In recent weeks, Youngkin has run a number of advertisements hitting his opponent on education: one attacking a comment McAuliffe made in a debate when he said that parents should not decide what schools teach, and another featuring a woman who sought to have the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel “Beloved” — which is about slavery in America — banned from Virginia’s school curriculum.
As governor, McAuliffe twice vetoed a bill that would have given parents the choice to opt their children out of sexually-explicit reading assignments. But McAuliffe has so far discounted much of the talk about critical race theory — which is not part of Virginia’s public school K-12 curriculum. During an interview with CNN, he accused Youngkin of just trying to “divide” voters.
Still, there’s evidence that education issues are especially animating Virginia voters. A recent poll from the Washington Post-Schar School found that education is a top issue for likely voters, with 24 percent saying this is the most important issue to them. And a Monmouth University survey found that 41 percent of likely voters ranked schools and education as one of the two most important issues in deciding their vote — second only to jobs and the economy (45 percent). Furthermore, according to a separate Suffolk University poll, a majority of likely voters (50 percent to 39 percent) said parents should have more of an influence on a school’s curriculum than school boards.
Since targeting critical race theory has energized Republicans nationally, it makes sense that this has been a focus of Youngkin’s campaign. He’s already received some outside support, too, so it’ll be interesting to see if Youngkin’s investment in the charged debates engulfing some of Virginia’s public schools pays off tonight.
It might be the biggest challenge for the Democrats and the President
Polls have closed in Virginia’s tight races for governor and statehouse, a test for Democrats in the first major elections since President Biden’s arrival in the Oval Office and a possible preview of what’s to come in next year’s congressional midterms. New Jersey also was deciding on its governor.
In Virginia, polls have shown a toss-up between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin in a state Biden carried by 10 percentage points a year earlier. In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy is seeking to turn back a challenge from Republican Jack Ciattarelli and become the first Democratic governor reelected in the Garden State in more than 40 years.
In preliminary network exit polling released early Tuesday evening, about one-third of Virginia voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the state.
Here’s what to know
Many municipalities across the country are holding elections, including Atlanta, Boston and Buffalo. In New York, Democrat Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, faces Republican Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels subway patrol group, in the mayoral race.
It’s an off-year for congressional elections, but three new members of Congress will officially or essentially be chosen in special elections. Those elections are the Democratic primary for Florida’s 20th Congressional District and the general elections in Ohio’s 11th and 15th districts.
In Virginia, 49 percent of likely voters favor McAuliffe and 48 percent favor Youngkin, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday.
Polls close in Va. as state, N.J. pick governors in first major elections of Biden’s presidency
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/02/election-live-updates/
No plagiarism squared off topic
thebradfordfile
https://twitter.com/thebradfordfile/status/1455655812198801413
If Democrats lose in Virginia, it’s a sign of hope for America.
actually it's already a seismic shift that it is even close
Breaking911
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1455662930150711305
BREAKING: ACLU files lawsuit to extend polling hours in New Jersey over 'technical issues' - WNBC
New Jersey must be scaring dems too
Biden won there by supposedly something like 13....
53 45 R
NBC
bellwether
In politics, a “bellwether” refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area.
For example, a county might be said to be a “bellwether county” if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. A state is considered a “bellwether state” if it usually votes the same way as a majority of the country.
According to Merriam-Webster, the term is derived from the Middle Ages:
Long ago, it was common practice for shepherds to hang a bell around the neck of one sheep in their flock, thereby designating it the lead sheep. This animal was called the bellwether, a word formed by a combination of the Middle English words belle (meaning “bell”) and wether (a noun that refers to a male sheep that has been castrated).
The current era party are sheep
LMAO
Kos
: We have finally hit the threshold, it appears, with about 400K-500K votes tallied. And the one thing about elections in this new age? Results can be pretty unrepresentative. The Republicans have considerable leads that are unlikely to hold up at this margin. But one thing we can tell, at this early point. The three Democrats are clearly running about one percentage point clear of one another. Attorney General Mark Herring is doing the best, notching 45% of the vote at present. Lt. Governor candidate Hala Ayala is at 44% of the vote. And former Gov. Terry McAuliffe is performing the least well of the Democrats at 43% of the vote. What we can also tell: left-leaning independent candidate Princess Blanding is not drawing much impact: she sits at 0.8% of the vote.
This is the singularly SADDEST thing I have read one this blog.
"
I can come and go anytime and have visitors..." AlkyBrandon
Christ, we , that enjoy and actual non-lock down lives , have friends and family into homes
The fix is in in Fairfax County.
Drudge
Youngin (54%)
So the steal by Machine Mcaweful is going to be hard.
Five minutes ago
Children ages 5 to 11 will be able to get a Covid-19 vaccine after the CDC cleared Pfizer’s doses for younger kids Tuesday night, allowing many parents across the U.S. to breath a sigh of relief.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, authorized the vaccine hours after a unanimous recommendation by the agency’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Vaccinations for young kids are expected to begin immediately.
Some parents have been counting down the minutes until U.S. regulators clear the shots, so their kids can get back to “normal” in-person learning, sports and other extracurricular activities that were largely put on hold due to the pandemic.
The vaccine will be given to kids in smaller doses, one-third of the dosage given to teens and adults.
“Too many children have either lost a parent or become orphaned in this pandemic, which is incredibly tragic,” committee member Dr. Camille Kotton said just before the vote. “So as an infectious disease specialist and a mother who has vaccinated both of her children, I am fully supportive of recommending this vaccine for this age cohort.”
A nurse gives a dose of the Pfizer vaccine to a girl at a COVID-19 vaccine clinic at Lyman High School in Longwood on the day before classes begin for the 2021-22 school year.
Paul Hennessy | LightRocket | Getty Images
Children are generally less likely than adults to suffer from severe cases of Covid, but a small portion of them do, Walensky told the committee prior to the vote. At least 2,316 kids ages 5 to 11 have suffered from multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C, a rare but serious Covid-related complication, according to data shared by the CDC at the meeting.
In addition, there have been at least 1.9 million Covid cases in the age group, 8,300 hospitalizations and at least 94 deaths, CDC advisor Dr. Matthew Daley told the committee. The burden of the pandemic extends beyond case counts, he said, adding Covid has caused school closures nationwide.
“The chances a child will have severe Covid, require hospitalization or develop a long-term complication like MIS-C remains low,” Walensky said. “But still the risk remains too high and too devastating to our children and far higher for many other diseases for which we vaccinate our children.”
Fully vaccinating 1 million kids ages 5 to 11 would prevent 58,000 Covid infections, 241 hospitalizations, 77 intensive care unit stays and one death, according to a modeled scenario published by the Food and Drug Administration last week. Up to 106 kids would suffer from vaccine-induced myocarditis but most would recover, according to the agency.
The FDA granted emergency approval for the shots Friday. The White House said Monday it began the process of moving
Youngkin 47.9% McAuliffe 47.0%
538
McAuliffe's camp says Fairfax County is delayed in reporting their vote count and we won't know until after 8pm. Fairfax is Virginia's most populated county.
They won't post the email results until later tonight.
You will call it a scam
Left Wing Drudge
Youngkin 55.5 %
This is going to take a Biden Size Steal.
Left Wing Web site Drudge has
Youngkin up by 10 points.
Roger goes dark.
MSNBC live doesn't call it but it looks like Glenn Youngkin will win.
The mail ballots won't be enough.
NBC news
Youngkin up by 9 with 70% in
We knew the toss up spin was crap.
I'm watching the World Series game.
Atlanta leads 3'0 third inning
Virginia Governor
Glenn Youngkin (R) leads by 220,808 votes over Terry McAuliffe (D) with an estimated 70 percent of votes counted.
Washington Post
Fully vaccinating 1 million kids ages 5 to 11 would prevent 58,000 Covid infections, 241 hospitalizations, 77 intensive care unit stays and one death, according to a modeled scenario published by the Food and Drug Administration last week. Up to 106 kids would suffer from vaccine-induced myocarditis but most would recover, according to the agency.
Read that Alky, slowly, what the fuck is everyone so up in arms about. There’s no big ups to vaxxing
Louden county Mccauliffe wins by only 16k votes
🤡I'm watching the World Series game"
ROGERBrandon
Crushing Jucie boxes , anyone sign in on the "Visitors Log" to watch it with you in your 12×10 studio apt?
Here's what the scene is like at McAuliffe's headquarters as grim reality sets in
From CNN's Jeff Zeleny
As the Terry McAuliffe campaign headquarters at the Hilton Hotel in McLean is filling with supporters tonight, with a line to the cash bar and music playing on the speakers, a grim reality is setting in among top supporters who believe Glenn Youngkin’s strength will be too much to overcome.
“This isn’t going Terry’s way,” one longtime donor and supporter said diplomatically. “That’s clear tonight.”
The race is still too early to call and CNN has yet to project a winner.
To reporters in the room, campaign aides had all but stopped spinning scenarios of places they can turn to for optimism tonight. For hours, they have pointed to higher turnout in suburban areas, but now it’s unclear which candidate that benefitted.
“Officially, this race is still too close to call – there is a substantial amount of early vote left to be counted, along with large numbers from places like Fairfax and Richmond and other urban areas where we have outperformed the rest of the state,” one campaign official said. “We’re still monitoring what’s coming in.”
The official added: “Unofficially, it’s rough.”
Another top party official used an expletive to describe to CNN the situation facing Democrats tonight in Virginia — even as so many votes remain uncounted.
McAuliffe remains at his home nearby, but one Democrat close to him says he understands the predicament he is in tonight — that explains his note to supporters earlier.
Several hundred people remain — and the mood is upbeat, but the sound on the TVs is down.
You don't have a clue.
It's much larger and I pay for everything
Drudge calling it for Youngkin
CNN feed
IF BRANDON'S Economic and CRT Policies cause the Mcaweful loss , will the disastrous policies change?
The Socialist used every Party Leader to try to win .
Drudge
DEM GOES DOWN IN VA
REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE?
RESULTS
MCAULIFFE 45.5% *YOUNGKIN 53.8%
What a fucking idiot.
At 73 , you are barely living, with no Car and a lockdown Medicaid studio apt.
You act as IF , this is an a accomplishment.
"Roger AmickNovember 2, 2021 at 8:33 PM
You don't have a clue.
It's much larger and I pay for everything" Alky the owner of cardboard juice boxes .
Socialist Democrats made the Race about Biden's CRT , Economic Policies.
Now comes the great walk backs and spinning.
Nobody wants to call the race
Not after the Great Steal of 2020.
The moderate Democrats will now run away from the 3.5 trillion reconciliation boondoggle.
I’m wonder if Manchin had a secret plan to break the progressive’s power by delaying passage until the Virgina election.
If so he may have saved his party.
Fairfax is now close to 90% counted and McAuliffe is running well behind Biden's numbers there.
There will be no Fairfax fix.
CS, do you think Joe Brandon will learn the Lessons of the Mcaweful beatdown?
Nate Cohn (who sort of runs the NYT needle still thinks it closes to around 2-3 percent, but that Youngkin wins.
Boom.
Republican Winsome Sears defeated Democrat Hala Ayala in Virginia's lieutenant governor race.
Sears is the first Black woman elected to a statewide office in Virginia.
Pro -2nd Amendment, good job.
CS, do you think Joe Brandon will learn the Lessons of the Mcaweful beatdown?
No!
At the beginning of the evening I never dream Youngkin would run away with the election.
It is an amazing Win.
Brandon and his party poured those collective all in support of Mcaweful.
The even sent in BIG Mike and her bitch, Barrack.
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