Saturday, July 9, 2022

The MSM is trying to "redefine" the definition of a "recession" to protect Democrats?

Is a recession coming in 2022?
While the economy likely contracted for a second straight quarter over the past three months – historically an informal benchmark for recession – top analysts say it will likely take falling employment to nudge the nation into a downturn.
In June, U.S. employers announced about 32,000 job cuts, up from about 20,000 in both May and June 2021, according to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. And the gloomier outlook is prompting some businesses to rein in hiring.

So negative GDP growth being the criteria for a recession is not really an "informal" benchmark, but has been the only real definition of a recession since I took Macro-Econ 101 back in college. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".

Generally speaking we do not necessarily require high unemployment or wage decreases or anything other than an economy that is moving backwards in GDP to describe a recession. In fact, I have yet to see any tangible description of any gauge associated with unemployment or anything else within any description of a recession. The idea is that normally a recession comes "with" employment issues and other negative economic factors. It is a symptom, not a cause of a recession.

It would appear that we will likely see a second quarter of negative growth along with polling showing a majority of Americans feeling like we are in a recession. But in spite of this  we will see a whole lot of pushback from the liberal press (and certain economists) who will demand that a GDP going backwards during a time of huge inflation (stagflation) is not actually a recession, because our employment numbers are not a poor as they generally would be. 

Seems backwards if you ask me.

To put this in perspective, if all goods and services are 6% or more "higher" than they generally would be, the fact that we are are seeing any negative GDP growth is remarkable. 1% negative growth in real dollars (under normal inflation) is likely more like a 4% or even 5% contraction of the economy. Generally inflation "raises" the GDP. 

More to the point, the low unemployment is not necessarily a strength right now as the retiring of baby boomers has led to shortages of employees (especially high trained employees) for many employers. This forces employers to fight over the remaining highly trained employees leading to higher wages for them (and higher cost of business). In other words,  low unemployment has to do with more people retiring than entering the workforce than it does with a strong economy (which we certainly do not have right now). 

Face the reality. We are currently in a recession and I promise the majority of  Americans will see it that way no matter what Paul Krugman or other liberal economists try to tell us.

44 comments:

anonymous said...


Saturday, July 9, 2022
The MSM is trying to "redefine" the definition of a "recession" to protect Democrats?


BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! I guess when you are on the wrong side.....just make shit up to deflect the obvious disappointment in the current jobs numbers and unemployment rate....Seems to me the only one moving the goal post is you Lil Schitty trying to make news out of another of your cracked and delusional opinions!!!!!! Sad you can push such BULLSHIT with nothing and still cannot show how voter fraud cost trump his power.....Why is that you mind is soooooooooo fucked up that facts are discounted and your opinion pushed without any evidence.....Truly a lost intellect who is wandering the trump desert of stupidity@!!!!!!!!

anonymous said...


Saturday, July 9, 2022
The MSM is trying to "redefine" the definition of a "recession" to protect Democrats?


BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! I guess when you are on the wrong side.....just make shit up to deflect the obvious disappointment in the current jobs numbers and unemployment rate....Seems to me the only one moving the goal post is you Lil Schitty trying to make news out of another of your cracked and delusional opinions!!!!!! Sad you can push such BULLSHIT with nothing and still cannot show how voter fraud cost trump his power.....Why is that you mind is soooooooooo fucked up that facts are discounted and your opinion pushed without any evidence.....Truly a lost intellect who is wandering the trump desert of stupidity@!!!!!!!!

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Pat Cipollone Testified for Eight Hours
July 9, 2022 at 7:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“Former White House counsel Pat Cipollone spent over eight hours meeting with the Jan. 6 select committee, emerging Friday without commenting on his cooperation,”
Politico reports.


Oath Keepers Had Explosives and a ‘Death List’
July 8, 2022 at 11:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 139 Comments

“The Justice Department released new details Friday evening of the alleged extensive planning by the Oath Keepers
to prepare for violence
in Washington, DC, on January 6, 2021, including lessons to conduct ‘hasty ambushes,’ a ‘death list’ of Georgia election officials and attempts to acquire homemade firearms,” CNN reports.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

When asked to denounce the proud boys, Trump told them to "stand back and stand by."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I just took looks at the Wikipedia articles on the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys, and it is obvious that several people who post here are members of both, posting the kind of propaganda that is identical to theirs.

Propaganda which, by the way, Ch does not denounce.

I guess he too wants them to "stand by."

Caliphate4vr said...

Another day and nothing but posts from geriatrics consumed by Trump

It must truly suck to be old as hell and have nothing better to do but post about a dude that has been out of office for 18 months.

Anything is better than discussing the train wreck of this administration, “repeat the line”.

LOL

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

A lot of the vile posted by F Daddy and rrb is identical to what you find in those two articles.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I forgot to mention that similar vile is also posted by Cali, who is a raging anti Muslim.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

"It must really suck to be old as hell."

Well, actually, a couple of weeks ago my wife and I ate and lengthily conversed with two people, one a woman I had never been with before, and when toward the end I mentioned I'm 82, she said she simply could not believe it.

Caliphate4vr said...

LOL

No one cares what child raper thinks, pedo

Someone who lies on this blog everyday

Who conned old people out their income by spreading some weird beard in the sky, hokum

IOW fuck you

Censored Pastor repeats said...

This innocent remark just got censored, so I repeat it here:

"It must really suck to be old as hell."

Well, actually, a couple of weeks ago my wife and I ate and lengthily conversed with two people, one a woman I had never been with before, and toward the end when when I mentioned I'm 82, she said she simply could not believe it.

Caliphate4vr said...

But you and Mo both have an affinity for raping young boys

Caliphate4vr said...

Pedo if the conversation actually took place, which I doubt she probably assumed you were a nonagenarian

Censored pastor said...

Oath Keepers and Proud Boys accuse all Democrats of child abuse. Nobody with one tenth of a brain believes it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Only cowards censor.
Funny how that only starts up when rrb, F Daddy, and Cali are present.

Censored pastor (who has never censored anyone, said...

This got censored too:

Only cowards censor. Funny how that only starts up when F Daddy, rrb, or Cali are present.

Caliphate4vr said...

No one is censoring you, you stupid fucking old man

We all get that understanding the interwebs is tough on the ancient and feeble minded.

Now I’m off for a while , watch my son play rugby. wow of the three geriatrics here none could actually produce a male. Speaks volumes.

rrb said...



wow of the three geriatrics here none could actually produce a male. Speaks volumes.


And it's a blessing for us all.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIv-glBvrrc

A 94 year old man who both sounds and looks it warns that the human race is now literally in the eve of possible destruction.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Coward Cali leaves;
censorship stops.

Interesting.

James's Fucking Daddy said...


Caliphate4vr said...
LOL

No one cares what child raper thinks, pedo

Someone who lies on this blog everyday

Who conned old people out their income by spreading some weird beard in the sky, hokum

IOW fuck you


hear, hear

or is it here, here ?

James's Fucking Daddy said...


DisHonest, indecent, untruthful Rev. said...

Coward Cali leaves;
censorship stops.

Interesting.


Looks like the pathological lying "pastor" has taken over as the boards VERY lo iq chump.

Now he's continuously accusing others of censorship when he triggers/has triggered a spam filter.

false accusations and lying

not normally traits of a pastor

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

'Donald is terrified' is an 'understatement' after Cipollone testimony: Mary Trump

Tom Boggioni

July 09, 2022

Appearing on MSNBC's "Katie Phang Show," Donald Trump's niece Mary said her uncle is likely shaking in his boots after hearing former White House counsel Pat Cipollone spent over 8 hours talking with investigators working for the House select committee investigating the Jan 6th Capitol riot.

Cipollone, who reportedly warned former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson that the administration was dangerously close to committing multiple crimes as Trump's inner circle tried to overturn the election results -- while also inciting the insurrection -- was expected to claim executive privilege. However, the amount of time he spent has raised eyebrows among observers who believe that he may have been more forthcoming than expected.

Speaking with host Phang, Mary Trump said her uncle is definitely alarmed at what may have been revealed.

"What do you think is going through his mind right now?" host Phang asked. "There is an even larger amount of damning testimony that is coming out. Notably, he did not attack Pat Cipollone before he testified before the committee."

"To say that Donald is terrified is accurate, it is also an understatement," she began. "I think this might be the first time in his entire life that even he can't deny the walls that are closing in. The amount of evidence that we see coming out of these committee hearings is overwhelming."

"Even more troubling for him is the witnesses coming forward," she elaborated. "They are increasingly important in terms of access and their position in his administration. It is not at all surprising that he would pull his punches when it comes to Pat Cipollone."

James's Fucking Daddy said...


Prepare for the Biden Tantrum: These Are the Lowest Poll Numbers Yet

The Biden team declared that the problem was just messaging, that they were going to have Joe Biden go out and talk more. Biden had allegedly complained that his people were undercutting him by trying to walk back when he gaffed or said something that wasn’t true; he didn’t want them to do that anymore.

So, how has that approach worked out for them?

He already hit his lowest average poll number, according to Real Clear Politics, about a week ago at 38 percent approval.

But now Biden has reached his lowest poll number ever. His number in the Civiqs poll just hit 30 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval.

Not only hasn’t Roe v. Wade angst helped to turn his numbers up — his numbers have gotten even worse since the case was overturned.

What’s hurting him badly is that he’s at 21 percent approval with white people, as well as with people between the ages of 18-34. With independents, Biden is at 19 percent approval and 67 percent disapproval. Yikes. Check how unpopular he is in Georgia and Pennsylvania, two states likely to have tough Senate races. That’s going to hurt the Democrats badly. But he’s underwater in every state, except Hawaii and Vermont. The only thing that is stopping him from dropping into the 20s is that he’s at 38 percent with the 65+ segment. But all the numbers have continued to drop, so expect that one to come down as well.

Biden is also far lower now in the Civiqs poll than President Donald Trump ever was. Biden is now lower than Trump was the day he left office, even after the media attacked Trump over the Jan. 6 riot. Trump was at 40 percent, at that point. Biden is now ten points lower than that.

continues:
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2022/07/08/prepare-for-the-biden-tantrum-these-are-the-lowest-poll-numbers-yet-n591536

Not going the way the lying old POS "pastor" said it would

ROFLMFAO !!!

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The strong employment figures released Friday keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage point at its meeting later this month to cool high inflation.

Employers added 372,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. Average hourly wages rose 0.3% from May, a step down from higher levels earlier this year that—if sustained—could make Fed officials slightly less anxious about an overheating labor market.

The figures follow others that have fanned fears the economy might be slowing more sharply and raising the risk of a recession, but Friday’s data could put those worries to rest for now.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobs-report-could-keep-fed-on-track-for-0-75-point-rate-rise-in-july-11657287586

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

You are showing the same symptoms of General Floyd.

Irrational outburst

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Even though the Wall Street Journal doesn't seem to be seeking to destroy the Republican Party or of course Donald Trump 😉

James's Fucking Daddy said...


The figures follow others that have fanned fears the economy might be slowing more sharply and raising the risk of a recession

actually many classical economists are saying we may already be in a recession

but there is a board of economists who "determine" that and they are rumored to be on the verge of changing the definition

that's what liberals do

play word games

we need to go back to earlier dictionaries

B4 woke

James's Fucking Daddy said...


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...
You are showing the same symptoms of General Floyd.

Irrational outburst



I have no idea who you are talking about and no one here probably does either

Was this meant to be a response to your demented roommate?

or are you just talking to yourself ?

or just another demented moment ?

maybe you should take a timeout and stop your pages of repetitive cut-n-paste and gather yourself

win/win, less stuff to skip over and you can rest

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://twitter.com/C_H_Truth/status/1545545668609323008?t=Ewlbp5YpaREfc8i3hycrgw&s=19

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a leading economic think tank founded in 1920, is the generally recognized authority in the United States when it comes to declaring a recession. It calls a recession “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”¹

The unemployment rate is 3.6%. Wages increased 5.1%.
There is a shortage of workers not a lack of jobs.

James's Fucking Daddy said...


saw this (which is a HUGE number btw)

Politics · Trending
Hunter Biden
171K Tweets



Clay Travis
https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1545773979671183361

The smartest man Joe Biden knows, his son Hunter, called First Lady Jill Biden an “entitled cunt” and a “vindictive moron” in text messages.


https://www.outkick.com/hunter-biden-reportedly-called-stepmom-jill-biden-an-entitled-c-and-vindictive-moron/


looks like the week is ending for the Bidens the same way it started

America is fucked

hopefully we can barely survive until 2022 and 2024

but it's no sure thing

and direction of country polling confirms that

James's Fucking Daddy said...


* Hunter is a bit smarter than I gave him credit for

James's Fucking Daddy said...


Just curious roger

Since you didn't feel it necessary to take a timeout who is this "General Floyd" you were ranting about ?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Next week is going to be very difficult for the Republicans who have backed Trump, especially after the January 6th insurrection. This


WASHINGTON – Former Trump White House counsel Pat Cipollone “did not contradict” testimony of previous witnesses as he appeared Friday before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, a grueling daylong private session that produced new information to be divulged in future public hearings, one lawmaker said.

It won't change your mind Scott 😌 ✨️

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I meant
retired Lt. General Michael Flynn

Like Scott, once he signed

James's Fucking Daddy said...


🔥 😎

VIDEO

https://twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1545563831061123072

Florida governor is OWNING the California governor

ROFLMFAO !!!


fun times if you don't "live" in California

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

retired Lt. General Michael Flynn

James's Fucking Daddy said...

Danny De Urbina
https://twitter.com/dannydeurbina/status/1545446672632782848


When Joe Biden said “repeat the line,” Hunter Biden really felt that.



Thanksgiving is going to be great at the Biden household

If it was reality TV nobody would believe it

odd how Hollywood is ignoring all this comedy gold

the whole world is laughing at us

and taking advantage of us

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

We'll see who's laughing after next week.

BEARS REPEATING:
(thanks, Roger):

Speaking with host Katie Phang, Mary Trump said her uncle is definitely alarmed at what may have been revealed.


"What do you think is going through his mind right now?" host Phang asked. "There is an even larger amount of damning testimony that is coming out. Notably, he did not attack Pat Cipollone before he testified before the committee."

MARY TRUMP:
"To say that Donald is terrified is accurate, it is also an understatement," she began. "I think this might be the first time in his entire life that even he can't deny the walls that are closing in. The amount of evidence that we see coming out of these committee hearings is overwhelming.

"Even more troubling for him is the witnesses coming forward," she elaborated. "They are increasingly important in terms of access and their position in his administration. It is not at all surprising that he would pull his punches when it comes to Pat Cipollone."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

A Few Thoughts for the End of the Week
July 9, 2022 at 11:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 46 Comments

Republicans have nominated some really weak candidates in key Senate races.

In Georgia, Herschel Walker (R) is a nightmare candidate regularly caught lying to his own staff about his past.
In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz (R) is a carpetbagger unable to fend off attacks from a rival who’s been too sick to campaign for the last two months.
In Ohio, J.D. Vance (R) is an untested, first time candidate running against a congressman who’s had his eyes set on higher office for more than a decade.
And on August 2, Republicans could very well nominate Eric Greitens (R), the disgraced former governor, in Missouri and Blake Masters (R), also disgraced, for Senate in Arizona.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Forbes.

Despite growing bearishness, many economists aren’t convinced the U.S. will fall into recession—at least not imminently. In a research note on Monday, analysts at S&P Global Ratings said the economy has enough momentum to avoid a recession this year, but warned “what’s around the bend next year is the bigger worry.” The economists put the odds of a recession in 2023 at 40%. One week earlier, Morgan Stanley put them at 35%.


Not yet