We’re all used to polls that ask voters which issue is most important to them. Gallup puts the question to Americans open-ended, meaning a respondent can say anything from the mundane (e.g. inflation) to the inane (e.g. clowns). Gallup, unlike other pollsters, has another twist on that question. They follow it up by pressing respondents to answer which party they think can better handle the issue that they just named as the most important.
Gallup’s latest data shows that 48% of Americans believe the Republican Party is best equipped, while 37% believe it is the Democratic Party. This 11-point Republican edge is one of the best they have ever had. Looking at 20 midterm elections since 1946 when this question was asked, only once has the Republican Party had a larger advantage on this question. That was in 1946 when Republicans had a 17 point lead on the Democrats.
Take a look at all elections since 1946 in which there was a Democratic president. Republicans ended up with 230 seats on average in the five elections when they led on the question of who Americans trusted more on the issue most important to them. This included 1946 when they won 246 seats.
In the four elections when Republicans trailed on this question, they won an average of just 189 seats. This included both 1962 and 1998, which are the two elections in the polling era with a Democratic president when Republicans had a net gain of less than five seats. Democrats need to keep Republicans to a net gain of less than five seats to maintain control of the House after November’s elections.
There seems to be a huge disconnect in this particular election cycle between what is going on in the world and what is going on in the polling. By all accounts the GOP should be running well ahead of the Democrats in every generic poll. They lead in all of the important categories, midterms are always a referendum on the current administration, and this administration is failing. Badly.
From Presidential approvals, to right track wrong track, to fundamental questions about which Party is trusted, the GOP should be looking at close to historical gains. Yet people like Nate Silver suggest that the GOP is no more than a 2-1 favorite to win the House and a 2-1 underdog to win the Senate.
The reality is that something will have to give. Are the polls going to turn out wrong again, for like the fifth or sixth election cycle? Or are people like Nate Silver right and we are looking at a close call election?
