If you go over to RCP, the AP page, or Decision Desk, or Cook Report, or wherever... you will not see 219-213. The reason being is there are still some disagreements left out there on Alaska 01, Maine 02, California 03, and California 47.
But all four of those races have calls by one outlet or another. Alaska 01, Maine 02, and California 47 all have been called for the Democrats by at least one outlet, while California 03 has been called for the GOP by at least one outlet (as the Republican leads by almost 10,000 votes). I do not expect that any of those races will change and my feeling is that it is only a matter of time until the rest of the outlets follow along.
What we have left that are uncalled by everyone are the following races:
- California 13 - John Duarte (R) 60,084 - Adam Gray (D) 59,121 Adam Gray - This one Duarte has just recently taken the lead by 963 votes with 83% of the votes counted.
- California 22 - David Valadao (R) 37,637 Rudy Salas (D) 33,672 - Valado has been leading by approximately this same percentage (5.5%) for some time, but there is still only 66% of the votes counted.
- Colorado 03 - Lauren Boebert (R) 163,733 Adam Frisch (D) 163,182 - this one the votes are all counted (the lead is around 550) and it is headed for a recount.
David Wasserman (editor of the Cook Report) has suggested that he believes these races are all the GOP to lose and sees a 222-213 majority for the Republicans. I see no reason to disagree. It seems that Duarte has done well in the most recent drops, and Valadao is well ahead (and the race would be called if not for the ridiculously slow counting). While the Lauren Boebert race is closer than anyone imagined, it is extremely rare in recent years to see 550 votes wiped out in a recount. There are no hanging chads or things of that nature. Especially not when you take ten days to count the votes you have. Expect you get it right!
While this will be a long term disappointment for the GOP (if you look at what they expected prior to the election) - it is actually a fairly welcome result for them based on where we were just a few days ago when there was talk of the Democrats having an outside shot at keeping the House.
