- Private payrolls rose by 2.369 million in June, a bit below the 2.5 million estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, according to ADP.
- May’s number saw a stunning revision, going from an initially reported loss of 2.76 million to a gain of 3.065 million.
- Hospitality industry workers saw the biggest gain, with 961,000 hires, while small businesses overall added 937,000.
So initially the May labor report was so confusing that most economist had it wrong by over 10 million jobs (were expecting a loss of several million, when we saw the single largest monthly gain). The ADP is a precursor for the BLS Government job report due out soon.
How well the economy rebounds will probably play as big of a part as anything else as it pertains to the 2020 election. Short of a huge surge in Covid-19 deaths come fall, I would think that the electorate will be focused on the future (and not an uncontrollable medical issue that we have been dealing with for months at that point).
But same holds true for this early summer data. This will wear off quickly if there is any sort of economic setback between now and fall. The numbers in August and September will probably have the most impact on the election as Octobers are generally too late to really process before an election and most people have a gut feeling about how things are going at that stage.
