National:
- NBC/SurveyMonkey - closed to three points
- Rasmussen - up to 7 point lead
- CBS/NYT - closed to a dead heat
- Morning Consult - closed to one point
- You Gov - closed to three points
- Florida - Quinnipiac Trump +5
- Florida - JMC Analytics Trump +5
- Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac Trump +6
- Ohio - Quinnipiac Trump +1
- Iowa - Monmouth Trump +2
- Nevada - Monmouth Clinton +4
- Colorado - Harper Clinton +7
This moves Florida and Ohio back into Toss Up and moves Nevada and Colorado into the Clinton side. Iowa stays in the Clinton column based on a double digit Loras poll, even as other polling in Iowa has been close.
Now at first glance, it would appear that the deck is stacked against Trump, as he would have to sweep the remaining five toss up states to win the election. That being said, Trump has led in at least some of the polling in all five states, and has seen improvement in the most recent polling. Either way, this is looking more and more like a legitimate Presidential race, rather than the historic blow out the left has convinced themselves is coming.
More to the point, he is running neck and neck with Clinton and is currently not advertising at all. As it stands, Hillary Clinton has run about twenty thousand ads to Donald Trump's zero. The fact she is losing ground while being the only one advertising should be an alarming sign for Hillary and her supporters.
While many political insiders believe Trumps operation is disorganized and out of focus, perhaps there is still a method to his madness. The key to advertising isn't quantity, it's quality. Some insiders claim that Trump has been holding back his best attacks until after the FBI report and until after the Conventions. I guess well see soon enough if his powers of persuasion will work to bring down Hillary Clinton, as well as it worked on the GOP field.
24 comments:
What should be more alarming to team Clinton is the trend lines in all of those polls.
In Florida for example, Clinton was up by 8 points a month ago.
Now it's a virtual tie or a slight edge to Trump.
And Trump doesn't even have the unified support of the Republican party yet.
Blogger Commonsense said...
What should be more alarming to team Clinton is the trend lines in all of those polls.
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which is probably at least part of the reason she hasn't held a presser in over 220 days.
She has been given ever single advantage in this election by the liberal press and still she is not doing well.
Citizen United --- she is so happy about that USSC decision. Seeing that Obama raised over 1.3 Billion when he ran and she will raise ever more from big donors.
HB & Jane are in favor of her big money wall street cash.
From the Social Security Web page, this comes as some kind of revelation to the Obama/Hillary team:
"Although wealth levels vary substantially by race, little of the disparity is explained by differences in income levels and demographic characteristics. In fact, the racial wealth gap far exceeds the income gap. The large empirical body of wealth studies (for example, Wolff (1998, 2000); Hurst, Luoh, and Stafford (1998); and Blau and Graham (1990)) report striking racial differences in wealth holdings, with white households owning at least five times the wealth of minority households.3 However, white households have earnings, on average, that are just twice as much as minority households."
Really, so studies show that the black is less likely to save then then Whitey, but Whitey does not make all that much more.
I think that if the BLACKS would learn more about how money works and not just work for money they might not be so pissed off at the world.
I'm not surprised. But Trump will say something stupid, and the trend will reverse.
Trump stood with Law Enforcement
Obama stands with Hillary and the Black Lies Matter criminal Enterprise.
IF we had a real AG, black lies matter would be shut down for provoking murders, riots and criminal damage to property.
Also, when they block US Interstate Highways they violate a host of Federal Laws against the free flow of US Commerce.
What ever happen to the Obama funded OCW, why are they not out marching against the greed and funneling of 100's of millions of dollars to Hillary?
Hillary: Can you imagine electing a vindictive man who might … send the IRS after his critics?
ROTFLMAO!!!!
CS, you find the gems that flow from Crooked Hillary's ugly face.
Thanks , that is one of her lowest IQ statements ever, do you think she realizes the hypocrisy ?
No, she's oblivious.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
July 13
Election Update: When To Freak Out About Shocking New Polls
by Nate Silver
7.7 million votes cast in GOP primaries for Marco Rubio & John Kasich. If NYT accurate, neither will speak at GOP convention
7.7 million votes cast in GOP primaries for Marco Rubio & John Kasich. If NYT accurate, neither will speak at GOP convention
Gosh Ch, I thought Trump was doing OH JUST SO WELL in all the polls.
Yet in a Colorado Fox News poll Hillary is up ten points above him and in Virginia, up by seven points. (Fox News polls usually favor Republicans, so the real numbers could be even worse for Trump.)
Not only that, but the states the Dems have won for six or more elections in a row have 242 electoral votes. Add Virginia and Colorado and you get 264, putting her only six electoral votes from the presidency.
And as if that weren't bad enough, in Ohio and Pennsylvania Trump gets -- perhaps you should sit down now, Ch -- Trump gets 1% (that ONE percent) of the black vote.
Oh, that's according to a Quinnipiac poll. A Marist poll has him at 0% in Ohio and 0% in Pennsylvania.
Drudge is now headlining a poll that shows Trump having a 7 point lead nationally.
Trouble is the don't say who conducted the poll.
Rasmussen, 1000 likely voters.
1,000? LOL: Here's one based on 60,000 likely voters.
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http://www.aol.com/article/2016/07/14/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-in-massive-new-poll-losing-o/21431964/?ncid=webmail
excerpt:
Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump if the election were held today, heading to a relatively easy victory EVEN if Trump were to win the key battleground state of Ohio.
A massive new poll by Morning Consult finds Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, would collect 320 Electoral College votes to Trump's 212, far more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
The NY Times blames the shift on fallout from the FBI investigation. Nearly half think it was illegal, and the rest don't trust Clinton because of her long series of lies exposed in the FBI report. Even those who still support her tend to believe that she was lying.
Clinton's positive views are down to 28%. Let that sink in, 28%. In a normal, non-Trump election that's not only an insurmountable deficit, but a humiliating one. There would normally, and mark theses words again, will be both public and political demands for an overhaul of the Democratic Party. Double that if the party's naked power grab propels Trump into office.
This is the New York Times/CBS News poll by the way, showing the two candidates as dead even in national polling.
The kicker here is that 60% don't really want to hear any more from either candidate. And nearly half (46%!) are not enthusiastic at all about the election. Beyond a small core of true believers on either side, it's hold your nose and vote for the lesser evil.
The winner will be the person who can convince the most people, in the last few weeks, that "I'm not so bad". Trump still has a chance to do that. Clinton, with her negatives are so well known and with voters getting their noses rubbed in it that she's either "unsophisticated" or uncaring, or else just a criminal getting away with what she can, is going to have a tough time convincing anyone that she's "not that bad" compared to perceptions as they are now.
I don't want a fascist President, but unless there's a shakeup what's to stop the Democratic Party from making the same mistake again and again? Selecting the hand that best washes the other hands, but leaves the country cold?
The Morning Consult poll only assigns toss ups if the polling results are a dead heat. Any reputable pollster would not do that.
Real toss ups are results within the margin of error and several states that are leaning Trump or leaning Clinton fall into that category.
That explains why James is the only one excited by this poll.
Bottom line is that it's too close to call.
Wp, why are Nate Silver at 358 and Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium so convinced that if the election were held today Clinton would easily win?
Commensa, Ch, same question to you.
Probably making assumptions about the tossup and battleground states James. The EC map appears to still favor Clinton.
But the salient fact is, the election is not today. Even though the national polling is essentially now a dead heat, Clinton has less room to improve than does Trump. You might derive some hope from the fact that her negatives are so well known already that there are fewer potential surprises, and the support she has discounts those negatives. But you'll have to face the fact sometime that she's the most disliked major candidate in modern history.
According to a new CNN/ORC poll, the alleged Muslim, Kenyan-born socialist/fascist who is ruining America now has a 52% approval rating. What’s more, this is up from January, when the POTUS was enjoying a 50% approval rating, his highest since he took office. It also marks the third consecutive poll where he’s got a majority approval from the American people, and the fourth where he’s shown a gain in popularity. According to The Hill, this is the best that America has felt about him since 2012.
Contrasting that with other modern presidents, you have Reagan with 48% approval, George W. Bush with 30%, and Bill Clinton narrowly edging out Barack with 55%.
According to a new CNN/ORC poll, the alleged Muslim, Kenyan-born socialist/fascist who is ruining America now has a 52% approval rating. What’s more, this is up from January, when the POTUS was enjoying a 50% approval rating, his highest since he took office. It also marks the third consecutive poll where he’s got a majority approval from the American people, and the fourth where he’s shown a gain in popularity. According to The Hill, this is the best that America has felt about him since 2012.
Contrasting that with other modern presidents, you have Reagan with 48% approval, George W. Bush with 30%, and Bill Clinton narrowly edging out Barack with 55%.
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