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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Fox and Ipsos down to two points
Trump takes lead in Rasmussen

Not too terribly long ago, Reuters was plugging the Ipsos tracking poll as showing Hillary Clinton up twelve points (or was it fourteen?). Fox News had shown Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine percent. That's a collective seventeen point drop for Clinton over two polls. An average of an eight and a half point surge for the GOP candidate Donald "build the wall" Trump.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen polling is now showing Trump back in the lead in a four way race at 40-39-9. This is a five point improvement for Trump in this poll.

With an ABC/WashingtonPost release looming, already showing Clinton losing about eight points in her favorability and Trump gaining in his, it's probably safe to say that that poll will not provide any good news for Clinton.

I wonder if Ms Inevitable is still feeling so?

23 comments:

Myballs said...

The dilemma for Hillary is that she knows that the more she talks, the less voters like her. So she hides, avoids press conferences, does fluff appearances.

OTOH, with her hiding, Trump gets the news cycle to himself. And he is now using it to maximum advantage. Even with the biased news media as acting as Hillary's proxy.

But she can't hide forever.

Indy Voter said...

The same is true about Trump talking, Balls. It's why Clinton surged a month ago. I suspect it will lead to gains in her polling again after yesterday.

C.H. Truth said...

Indy - I respectfully disagree. Like it or hate it. That press conference was a big win for Trump. As for the speech, I don't believe it changed anyone's mind either way. It re-energized his base and pissed off the left. Just what I would have expected after giving "another" speech on the same topic for about the 100th time.

But eventually the continuous attacks on pretty much everything Trump does by the press wears thin on people. It becomes the boy who cried wolf. If every time he speaks, the same people in the media fall over in fits of rage... then eventually people figure it's the people having the fits who have the problem.

This wasn't the press reporting that Trump was attacking a "gold star" family, or saying he attacked a Mexican judge, or anything else that were called and probably were "unforced errors".

The same people will be simply attacking (again for the 100th time) the very same policies that Trump has held since the beginning... albeit with a marginal of softening around the edges.

But even his speech was substantive, and if it did nothing else, it took away the argument that he is about rhetoric and broad statements. He took the time to lay out very real initiatives last night. At the very least he accomplished that.

Either way, he's back controlling the news cycle. People (on both sides) were saying that he overshadowed the Mexican President, and it got people talking about him looking Presidential. His speech brought the discussion away from "gold star families" and other red herring, into the main issues that Trump wants to be front and center. You may not agree with him on the issue or whether he should highlight it. But it's going according to "his" plan right now.

Roger Amick said...

Not even their own supporters are all that excited about winning.

A nationwide USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, taken as Labor Day launches the final sprint toward the election, finds supporters of both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump more motivated by fear about the other side claiming the White House than they are by excitement about their own candidate prevailing.

Clinton holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Trump, 48%-41%, close to the 6-point lead she held two months ago in the survey. But the proportion of undecided voters is chipping away, now below 10%. And in a four-way ballot, support for third-party contenders has ticked up, to 9% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4% for Jill Stein of the Green Party.

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But the proportion of undecided voters is chipping away, now below 10%.

This is one poll again, but the undecided is below 10%. If this is indicative of what the nest week of poll will show, Trump is in trouble.

Roger Amick said...

Donald Trump may have risen to the top of the Republican party with scare-mongering tactics and the promise to "Make America Great Again," but that doesn't mean most Americans share the GOP nominee's dystopian view that the country is in desperate shape. According to a new Gallup poll released this week that measures the well-being of Americans, most people across all racial and ethnic groups actually believe the opposite: They say their lives have largely improved under President Barack Obama.

"The percentage of US whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians who are thriving have all increased during the Obama era," Gallup reported.

His plan is too convince the voters that the country is going to hell.

Most of us don't agree.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger - I already posted the Suffolk U poll. It's already into my cross tabs.

The most interesting thing about the cross tabs was the percentage of Republicans they showed voting for Clinton.

I have 18 pollsters in my Crosstab calculation. The average support for Clinton by Republicans is 7.9%. Similar to the 6.6% of Democrats voting for Trump.

Suffolk is showing that 22% of Republicans (in a two way) will vote for Clinton. That's almost three times the average.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger - you forgot to include this in your cut and paste:

U.S. adults' life evaluations are better today than when President Obama took office in January 2009. During the Great Recession, the rapid decline in the labor market played an instrumental role in suppressing life evaluations nationally, setting the scene for improvement to come.

In other words, it only got better because of how bad people thought it was during the great recession. Even saying that, it only got "marginally" better.

Moreover, the "index" started in 2008 (in the midths of the great recession). So there is no way to tell if 55% is historically a good number or a bad number.

rrb said...

"The percentage of US whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians who are thriving have all increased during the Obama era," Gallup reported.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

via mother jones.

i'll go to gallup directly to see what MJ could possibly be misrepresenting in the gallup data.

rrb said...


and lo and behold, i've found what mother jones was lying about:

Life evaluations across all racial/ethnic groups have improved since 2008

Blacks' life evaluations have dropped during Barack Obama's second term

Life evaluations among whites now at highest point in nine-year period


and the gallup story is driven by how individuals self-report whether they are 'thriving' or 'struggling.'

not a drop of empirical economic data in the report.

good job mother jones, in trying to convince those who have already convinced themselves whether they're doing well... or not.



rrb said...

In other words, it only got better because of how bad people thought it was during the great recession. Even saying that, it only got "marginally" better.
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it's amazing how liberals will 'bitterly cling' to even the most miniscule morsel of what they can pass off as good news coming out of this administration.

rrb said...

His plan is too convince the voters that the country is going to hell.

Most of us don't agree.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



life evaluation rating among black DEMOCRATS (% thriving)

2008-2010: 56.4

2013-2015: 52.6


ouch

i'm left to conclude that from 08-10 they were still high from the euphoria of electing a black guy. by 2013 reality set in. HARD.



Roger Amick said...

I see that you have the ECV is in favor of Clinton needing only 8 additional ECV and Trump needs 126 more. He has to pretty much sweep the swing states. He trails in most of them, by increasing percentages, but none of them are post speech. He lost what little Hispanic vote he had, most of his Hispanic advisors quit last nigh.

He is counting on the white, male, non upper education voters. The numbers do not favor him at the national level.


Hillary Clinton +3.7

Hillary Clinton - 47.1% (262 ECV)

Donald Trump - 43.4% (154 ECV)

Other - 9.5% (0 ECV)

Toss Up states - 122 ECV

rrb said...



He is counting on the white, male, non upper education voters.
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huh.

wait until i tell my white AND black, male AND female trump supporting friends with bachelor's, master's and professional degrees.

they are really gonna feel like they're being duped.

for chrissakes, i hope my doc doesn't drop me as a patient.

LOL.

C.H. Truth said...

most of his Hispanic advisors quit last night

By most, you mean Jacob Monty? The only person of the 24 member council to actually "resign".



Roger Amick said...

rrb, if your doctor knew your beliefs, if he was ethical he would castrate you so you can't reproduce.

Roger Amick said...

From the earlier link to Politico

Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee’s hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night.

Jacob Monty, a member of Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council, quickly resigned after the speech. Another member, Ramiro Pena, a Texas pastor, said Trump's speech likely cost him the election and said he'd have to reconsider being part of a "scam." And Alfonso Aguilar, the president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, said in an interview that he is “inclined” to pull his support.

“I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump when I believed he was going to address the immigration problem realistically and compassionately,” said Monty, a Houston attorney who has aggressively made the Latino case for Trump. “What I heard today was not realistic and not compassionate.”

He withdrew from the board following Trump’s speech in Phoenix, which was heavy on calls for border security and emphasized that all immigrants in the country illegally were subject to deportation.

Pena delivered a harsh condemnation in an email to senior Trump and Republican National Committee leaders, obtained by POLITICO.

"I am so sorry but I believe Mr. Trump lost the election tonight," said Pena, a pastor at Waco's Christ the King Church. "The 'National Hispanic Advisory Council' seems to be simply for optics and I do not have the time or energy for a scam."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-hispanic-leaders-arizona-immigration-227615#ixzz4J2Am0OmU
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

KD, 93 Million unemployed said...

HB, never learns, he sucks at math, numbers and finances.

Yet, the ill informed continues to post, be called out and still think he is winning.

when all your wealth is less then $162,000 for your entire life of work, you suck.

The 70 % that say the USA is headed in the wrong direction, disagree with O'Hillary and DumbMother.

rrb said...

By most, you mean Jacob Monty? The only person of the 24 member council to actually "resign".
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

monty told cBS that 'most of trump's hispanic advisors' (somewhere between 24 and 30) are resigning.

i'll believe it when those who were officially part of his campaign come forward and officially resign.

Roger Amick said...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Ten four way polls. Clinton still leads ind all but one.

Per your own projections Trump has a tough climb and most pundits still say Hillary is well over 60% pf winning.

C.H. Truth said...

So Roger - a politico link stating one person quit, and two others were pondering pulling their support.

Is the equivalent of "most of his Hispanic advisers"?

I am sorry, here folks... but Trump said nothing new last night. In fact he still hedged enough to argue it's a softening. If you supported Trump and his immigration stance two months ago, but no longer support it today...

I would offer that you probably didn't much support it to begin with and you are full of shit.

rrb said...

I would offer that you probably didn't much support it to begin with and you are full of shit.
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i'm surprised that trump is not doing a better job of vetting his hangers-on.

these 'major latino surrogates' sound like a pack of la raza assclowns.

if they WERE legit, and are in this country LEGALLY, they shouldn't have a problem with one word of trump's immigration platform.

C.H. Truth said...

Per your own projections Trump has a tough climb and most pundits still say Hillary is well over 60% pf winning.

Well Roger... over 60% chance isn't exactly a lock now is it? Considering a week or so ago, you had this 100% locked, wrapped up, guaranteed, and the only question was if the landslide Clinton victory would be big enough to drag the House over the Democrats.

(sarcasm on)

As you argue: There is not enough time to come back from that "HUGE" lead, that no candidate in the history of any election over the past 1000 years have even come back from.

(sarcasm off)

I told you that it wasn't even labor day yet, and that a lot can happen.

Now my side bar spreadsheet has three polls showing Trump ahead, the majority of the polls are within the margin of error, and you get excited about polls showing Hillary up 6-7 (when you were touting double digit leads about three weeks ago).

Not only that, but RCP has down blue arrows showing declines for CLinton in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Virgina (a new 2 point poll)... and Trump is sporting a red arrow "up" in Arizona. There are literally no recent state polling moving in Hillary's favor.

Oh and Silver's average right now is Clinton 42.4% Trump 38.7% (3.7% margin). That's well within striking distance for approaching labor day weekend.

Now, there is a long ways to go. I am sure there will be more good days for Hillary and more good days for Trump. Maybe you should consider that, before you declare the race over... for the 50th time.

rrb said...

before you declare the race over... for the 50th time.
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by a landslide!