Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Hillary Clinton - 68 million in political ads
Donald Trump - 4 million in political ads

This is an interesting topic of conversation. Depending on who you talk to, Hillary getting out in front with 68 million in political ads either shows that:
  • Trump's campaign has been incompetent and incapable of putting together anything any sooner.
  • Trump's campaign made a strategic decision to hold back funds till after labor day, when they felt it would have the most impact.

At this point, I don't think it really matters anymore. What's done is done, and you can only move forward with the reality. Hillary Clinton got about a 60 to 70 million dollar head start in her advertising in key battleground states. Now the question that needs to be answered, is was that money well spent and how might all of this effect the last 10 weeks of the election.

A significant portion of the mainstream media is reporting on this as if the race is over. They feel that there is simply an insurmountable polling lead in most of the battle ground states. There is another pro-Clinton camp who is concerned that there isn't "enough" of a lead in these battleground states, considering how much of a spending advantage she has had. These people worry that this unopposed advertising blitz should have really put Trump away, and they still believe Trump still has enough of a pulse to come back and win. There is still another pro-Trump crowd who suggests that Trump is well within range, the polls don't tell the whole story, and that once he gets his own advertising out there, that things will tighten even more.

I am of the opinion that all of the News regarding Trump's antics, along with the continued revelations regarding Clinton's emails, and the play for pay scandal for Clinton Foundation donors, may have fed the narrative and moved opinions much more than the political advertising has. It seems logical that when more and more Americans do not watch television in the traditional sense like they once did (DVR, Netflix, Hulu, OnDemand) that these sorts of traditional television ads are going to be less and less important.

That being said, they are still at least somewhat important and they no doubt have helped Hillary to this point. Whether her advertising has started to reach the laws of diminishing returns is probably predicated on what other lines of attacks she can come up with. I am not a believer in the concept that if you first don't succeed with a political line of attack, try it again only yell a little louder this time.

Either way, it's likely that new ads from Trump will be more effective than old ads from Hillary that have been played already. That seems nothing more than common sense. So perhaps, if these new ads can have an impact and move the needle, the criticism that Trump waited so long to run ads might be answered.

There is still a lot of work to do if you are Donald Trump, and there are still minds he will have to change to win the election. But considering how much things have already changed, just in the past three weeks or so... ten weeks can be an eternity in politics.


Myballs said...

And don't forget Jeb's $100M

Also, we are actually seeing Hillary ads on TV here in NY. We never get any. Do this should tell you something.

Roger Amick said...

Either way, it's likely that new ads from Trump will be more effective than old ads from Hillary that have been played already. That seems nothing more than common sense. So perhaps, if these new ads can have an impact and move the needle, the criticism that Trump waited so long to run ads might be answered.

Why more effective? The Clinton adds showed the crazy shit Trump said, and asked would you want him in charge? I have been watching both of them. It still looks like your political vies are influence you judgment.

And one other thing, if it will get past the censorship.

The 6% lead at this time is normal as voters go home. If it was today, the ECV would look like Romney V Obama. Trump's problem is that unless he can make a dramatic change in the millennial and ethic vote blocks. he's going to have a tough climb. And there is another advantage for Clinton. Obama is far more popular than Bush was in 2008. Trump can't gain much ground by calling Clinton as Obama continued.

So you may be right, but only if he can make a dent in those groups I pointed out. Otherwise, it will be close to Obama and Romney.

C.H. Truth said...

Two problems Roger.

First, it's not 6 points, or 7 points, or whatever Nate Silver and the Huffington Post wants you to believe. Isn't it interesting that Monmouth comes out with a poll that shows a 5-6 point improvement over their previous polls, and both Huffington Post and 538 bump the average "up"?

Shouldn't that average go down (as it did in my polling) when a poll from the same pollster shows a lead cut in half? I've found that the Huffington Post average is actually an average from the start of the race (meaning the large Clinton lead is dug in, and it will be nearly impossible for Trump to pull ahead (when RCP had him ahead in July - HP still had him down by 3-4 points).

At most it's the five points that RCP and my spreadsheet states it is. A more reasonable assumption would be that it's more around the 4% is shows in most of the four way races, and how my projection spreadsheet shows it.


Secondly, the Obama Romney election was hardly a landslide victory for the Democrats and it had marginal effects in Congress (2 Senate seats and 8 House seats).

I don't believe that Democrats would be very happy if the Republicans maintained control of the Senate and only lost 7-9 House races. In fact, they would see that as a big problem, as this is technically their year in the Senate (favorable seats up for grabs).

Bottom line: In order to see the sort of victory (landslide) that you and others assume will happen, Hillary will probably need to improve her polling from where it has been the past two weeks. If it keeps moving in Trump's favor (13 of the past 16 polls have moved in his favor) - then things will get dicey.

Not like she has much left in the tank. She's hit him with everything (plus the kitchen sink). The recent screaming about racism appears like a move from someone who has nowhere else to go, so she will repeat the same criticism, only louder.

KD, said...

What is new out of Camp Clinton, they just trashed Obama's "Saved Detroit" which was a big Lie, after O'Hillary saved Detroit it filed bankruptcy.

Now Camp Clinton has a new way to "RE_Save" Detroit,,,, let the building contracts go to only Syria age men between the ages of 18-35 and to hell with the blacks in Detroit.

James said...

Hillary is beating Donald in almost all national polls, in TV ad spending and in nearly every measure of campaign organization.

And contrary to what you keep saying, Ch, her national lead is holding steady:

A new Public Policy Poll shows
she leads Donald 42% to 37%
with Gary Johnson at 6%,
Jill Stein at 4% and
Evan McMullin at 1%.

A month ago she led 46/41
but both she and Trump’s support has dropped by 4 points,
with support for third party candidates increasing from 8% to 11%
and the level of undecideds increasing from 5% to 10%.

In head to head polling, Clinton’s 5 point lead is the same as a month ago,
but now it's 48/43 instead of 50/45
with undecideds increasing from 5% to 9%.

Where's that great tightening of the polls you keep trumpeting, Ch?

Roger Amick said...

CH, I have been cruising the political web, and yes, both sides. I don't find anyone who thinks, based on the numbers today. And other problems problems that Trump has with the superb voters, millennial and every ethnic group. You are in a distinct minority, that the boys and girls will find out in November. The hill story sums it up.

Despite Donald Trump is gaining some ground on Hillary Clinton in the polls, leaving the Democrat with a smaller lead heading into the crucial month of September.

Clinton opened her largest margin on Aug. 9, when she had a 7.6 percentage point advantage over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. At the time, she was consistently reaching 50 percent support.

But Clinton’s lead has shrunk since then, to 4.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, and she’s fallen short of the 50 percent mark in the last six national polls. The Democratic presidential nominee has settled into the mid-40 percent range, presenting an opportunity for her Republican rival.

Despite the improving picture for Trump, Clinton remains the favorite to win.

I'm sue you will dispute my analysis, but I'm confident that she will win. Not by a large popular vote, the country is divided and both candidates are the most unpopular in history, as far as I can see it

C.H. Truth said...

Where's that great tightening of the polls you keep trumpeting, Ch?

You really don't pay attention, do you James?

That poll is on my sidebar. Every poll you cite is already on my spreadsheet, and I have already analyzed it. Nothing you can bring up having to do with polling will inform me.

13 of the last 16 show Trump gaining. That was mentioned earlier in this thread.

Does you citing one of the three really change that fact?