Friday, August 19, 2016

Is the polling being misrepresented?

So I was looking at the Huffington Post (Pollster.com) graph and it struck me as odd. On the first page of polls (ten per page) there was not a single poll showing Hillary up by more than six points. Yet the overall average was showing at nearly 7 points. 

So I noticed that they have a "customize button".  I "customized" the graph to do two things.
  • Only include the polls released in the past 30 days.
  • Only include polls that were either likely or registered votes.  So we removed "all adult" polls which are entirely useless.

The average moved from nearly 7 points to 3.6 percent. 

CLICK ON ME

So in a four way race, only including the past 30 days and excluding any poll that is "all adults" - the Huffington Post average (for the four way race) is at 3.6 percent, and Hillary Clinton is only at 40.4% (meaning she still has a ton of selling to do).  

Not exactly the story that is being told by much of the media, huh? 

For the record, only including the past 30 days of polling is not what I would call "cherry picking". In fact,  I would think most people would suggest that a poll taken three months ago might be entirely irrelevant at this point. I find it interesting that these are being included in the "official chart" and I have to wonder if they would be, if doing so helped Trump rather than Clinton. 

16 comments:

KD, "Booming Economy" HB doind Stand UP said...

Trump is moving up in the polling because he has picked up a lot of black votes.

Hillary well she had to spend $100's of Millions of dollars since the beginning of the US Dominated (you did win that) Olympics and yet she is losing ground.

Hillary has been on vacation for days not , will take today off as well and the weekend to party with her Elite Money Machines, aka Cher is doing a $9,000 a plate dinner for old tired ill weak frail Hillary.

Obama remains on Vacation as the WEST Burns and the South floods, he is safe and golfing in Martha's Vineyard. NOTE: Remember when W vacationed at his own home in Texas, the home that is far more Earth Friendly then AlGore's and the press railed against it, I do, funny , the US Press in on Vacation too.

opie' said...

First, all the models are wrong. The science of GW is biased. Now, the polls are being screwed with. Simple question, what in your humble opinion is correct????? Anything or just what you write and opine on. LOL

C.H. Truth said...

First, all the models are wrong. The science of GW is biased.

If you say so...


All I am saying, is if you use Huffington Post's own graphic, filter it to remove polling for "all adults" and for the past 30 days..

That the average is 3.6 - not nearly 7 points.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

3.6%

Delusional

C.H. Truth said...

Their Chart, Roger - not mine.

Anonymous said...

Roger Amick said...

3.6%

Delusional
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

well, i've been under the impression for many years that huff po is delusional... on virtually every topic under the sun.

so thanks for that admission.

wphamilton said...

It's not delusional or wishful thinking. Clinton, to most of the country, really is that bad of a choice that Trump becomes a serious alternative.

Clinton's lead right now is tenuous.

KD, Trump Surge in Black Voters said...

Trump and Pence are on the Ground in Louisiana.

Obimbo is golfing in Martha Vineyards.

Hillary is resting --- but what hospital or Spa the press will not report.

Myballs said...

Trump has been all over the country as of late. Today he is in Louisiana looking very presidential.

Meanwhile Hillary looks as feeble and secretive as ever.

And Obama won't even come off the golf course to be bothered on his vacation. And the news media who hammered bush for his flyover are now defending Obama for doing even less.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Another Republican says Trump sucks. The big money guy for Mitt Romney. Raising money for Hillary.

C.H. Truth said...

Another Republican says Trump sucks.

And this has to do with polling how?

Oh wait, you have difficulty with numbers.

Much easier to repeat the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over...

KD said...

HB, take a breath, I see you ran in all red faced and breathless to tell us what you believe is news, ok, you said, now sit down.


What happen to your point of view that money, lots and lots of money because of Citizens United is not the way a Presidential Contender should go about getting elected?

Yet, Hillary is $pending like a drunken Bill the Rapist in a Arkansas Trailer Park.


Trump Speech putting the question to the Black Voter needed to be said, with the ONE in the White House the record is one that O'Hillary said she is running on, so lets take a look.

1, Blacks are less likely to own their home today then before Obama took office.

2, Their kid is much much less likely to have a job.

3, The Blacks are less wealthy, their personal retirement is less, they have less in savings and their net wealth is less, then when the ONE took office.

4, More likely to be on food stamps.


Anonymous said...

Roger Amick said...
Another Republican says Trump sucks. The big money guy for Mitt Romney. Raising money for Hillary.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

well, considering how well romney fared from all that "BIG MONEY," i suppose this does not mean that hillary is a lock by any stretch of the imagination.

who's up next?

john mccain's "big money guy"?

C.H. Truth said...

Or Jeb Bush and all of his big money in the primary race...

KD, Hillary phone it in said...

Hillary has spent about 1/2 a Billion dollars so far, and what does she have to show for it..... a dead heat.

Notice that MIA Hillary is not being stalked like Trump would be if he dropped of the campaign trail for 4 days,,, to "rest".

The lap dog media did report that she got off her spa treatment bench and made a call to the Gov of Louisiana, wow, now that is a lady of real action.

Oh and after Mr. 19th hole gets done with the 1 % out in Martha Vineyard, he is going to follow Trump to Louisiana. Really, a putt before people, the true heart of Liberalism, selfishness and Greed.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Is it not true that Trump's latest shakeup moves his campaign precisely where it should not go -- in the direction of right wingers AGAINST the Republican leadership and moderates and reasonable politicians who would LIKE to actually govern if they ever again get the chance.

They are NOT "liberal RINOS," just practical politicians and (some of them) even statespersons who love both their party and their country.

Right now in the key swing states Trump isn't doing better than the mid thirties, yet he chooses to narrow, rather than widen, his appeal base. No doubt he blames those who have been counseling him to moderate his positions for his decline in the pools, so he will return to a non moderate position, and that despite the fact that his disapproval with the electorate is a high 65%!

Apparently the man is clueless about the narrowness of his appeal.

Good. Let him go down in flames.