Thursday, August 18, 2016

Trump in Wisconsin

The war on our police is a war on all peaceful citizens who want to be able to work and live and send their kids to school in safety. 
Our job is not to make life more comfortable for the rioter, the looter, the violent disruptor. Our job is to make life more comfortable for the African-American parent who wants their kids to be able to safely walk the streets. Or the senior citizen waiting for a bus. Or the young child walking home from school.


Roger Amick said...

He is trailing by a significant margin there. If the Republican party had a quality product to sell, this make a substantial improvement. Trump may get a point or two, but it won't change the fact that Clinton will most likely, take this state, despite being governed by a Republican governor. The suburbs and then educated women, especially, will solidify support Hillary Clinton.

Roger Amick said...

Steve Banno has been a long time critic of Speaker Ryan. Ryan destroyed his extremist opponent in the primary. This speech will not address the problem he has with Republicans, let alone the independent and the educated women who support Clinton. Banno is not going to help widen the vote numbers. Even in his own party, the polls show a lot of discomfort.

Being Trump is not going to change the negative perception on him. The RCP average, if you take out the LA Times poll that is always lower than all the others, the average is at a steady 5.6%. Wisconsin has it at 9.4%.

Seriously, do you think this speech will make a difference in Wisconsin, given the Banno factor?

C.H. Truth said...

Actually Roger - the past four polls

LA Times - less than one point
Rasmussen - two points
Zogby - two points
Ipsos/Reuters - four points (was 7)

Statistically it's hard to argue that the lead is holding steady.

rrb said...

well cold, there you go again, inserting facts into his completely ignorant but fully ideological 'opinion.'

it's hillary by a landslide, my friend.

the all wise and powerful elite have decided.

we're just marking time until the coronation of the queen of the cankles.

Roger Amick said...

I know how to run an average. I added up the numbers with the exception of the LA Times poll, that has always been lower than any of the others and it comes out to 6.8%

So yes, it's holding petty solid. PLUS and you know that from you own site, he has a long way to get even close in the electoral college. You have Hillary over 270.

C.H. Truth said...

You know how to run an average -

LA Times - +1 (8/17)
Ipsos - +4 (8/17)
Rasmussen - +2 (8/16)
Zogby - +2 (8/16)
UPI/Voter - +5 (8/16)
Survey Monkey - +6 (8/14)
Morning Consult - +6 (8/14)
Gravis - +5 (8/09)
Bloomberg - +4 (8/8)
Princeton - +6 (8/8)

That is the past 10 polls - everything since 8/8

How can you possible "average" out to 6.8% when none of the polls are even over 6 points

Roger Amick said...

I took those listed on the RNC Presidential Polls.

That's consistent without the Los Angeles Times.

Roger Amick said...

Using your list that comes to a 5% average.

I used the RCP list. 6.8%

Roger Amick said...

Reuters/Ipsos 8/13 - 8/17 41 36 Clinton +5
Economist/YouGov8/14 - 8/16 47 41 Clinton +6
NBC News/SM 8/8 - 8/14 50 41 Clinton +9
Bloomberg 8/5 - 8/8 50 44 Clinton +6
ABC News/Wash Post8/1 - 8/4 50 42 Clinton +8

The baseline has been this starting point for most of the time. I took out the LA Times, as it is always far different.

The electoral college is the bottom line, on that Trump has to take all of the Romney states and more, and ass of this time it's not even close.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger... my list includes all polling. And the past 10 average 4.2% not 5%.

Did you include the most recent polls from RCP from their four way race? Some of the polls (like Rasmussen) are not listed in the head to head because they include Johnson and Stein.

C.H. Truth said...

Also I always use the four way race results when offered by a pollster.

Roger Amick said...

The fact is that not a single national poll since July 24 has shown Trump in the lead, according to the tally kept by RealClearPolitics. Clinton has also pulled ahead in all of the battleground states and has become competitive in traditional Republican strongholds such as Georgia and Arizona.

Roger Amick said...

Note one thing. The four way, shows Clinton in the lead in every poll.

Pew Research Clinton +4
Rasmussen Reports Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov Clinton +6
NBC News/SM Clinton +6
Bloomberg Clinton +4
Breitbart/Gravis Clinton +5
Monmouth Clinton +13
ABC News/Wash PostClinton +8
Roger Amick Average Clinton 6.4444444

C.H. Truth said...

Your math (and analysis of current national polling) is still wrong. But go ahead and change subjects.

Roger Amick said...

I posted on the RCP four way today. I did NOT change the subject.

Roger Amick said...

The average is simply a total of the numbers, divided by a count of the numbers

I'm not wrong.

15/3=5=the average.


rrb said...

I took out the LA Times, as it is always far different.

which begs the question - why?

you have made it quite clear that a devastating and crushing defeat is inevitable for trump and that the queen of the cankles wins... in a landslide. so why exclude certain polls from your analysis simply because they make you uncomfortable?

KD, HB show up again by CHT on Adult Blog said...

LOL ,,,, HB and math is like HB and Personal Finance, complete strangers.

CHT,,,, put on your statistical Skewing Glasses, then look at the Data thru them, see your now a brain dead Progressive, you see what you want to and like Hillary IF you don't like what you "hear" just say that the Family of the Dead did not "hear correctly".

I do believe because of the massive explosion over the last 8 years of the Dependent Class in the USA, Hillary wins this fall.

KD, said...

When the Clinton's are threatened, they find the first Available Bus to throw someone under, this time, Former General Colin Powell ( have personally met him at the Buffalo Solider Monument Opening at Ft. Leavenworth and hear him speak at the Sprint Center in KCMO years ago).

Hillary blames Powell for her ever getting the Email Servers (remember there were at least 2 that we know).

James said...

Hey, Ch, speaking of national polling, aren't they now showing that Trump is losing support even among white men?

C.H. Truth said...


Ff you add up the last 10 polls I reference is 42. Divide by 10 and you have 4.2. Pretty simple mat, and I think mine is better than yours.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger -

I use all of the polls - That would include a combination of both RCP two way and four way race. If there is a four way race for the same pollster (I use that over the two way).

I also use the Hufffington Post list, which includes some polls that RCP does not include.

So my list it comprehensive...

RCP's list is selective... or in some cases it is split (Rasmussen shows a two way race, but is not included in their head to head polling because they only poll including Johnson and Stein). Is it accurate to look at one or the other when you know it does not include certain polls that are out there?

To put it in perspective all of the 10 polls I listed were released "since" RCP's listing of ABC New/Wash Post (which on my list is already an old poll)