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Sunday, August 21, 2016

Polls closing - liberals disagree

The last six polls released (8/20-8/16): Clinton +2.5
Previous six polls released (8/15-8/07): Clinton +4.8
Previous six polls released (8/06-8/02): Clinton +9.3

Trump leads Clinton in latest tracking poll

Two polls released this morning included Morning Consult, where Hillary's six point lead (four way race) was cut to three, and the LA Times tracking poll where Trump is now up two points over Clinton.

Liberals disagree that the polls are closing, and disagree that Trump is now leading in the LA Times tracking poll. They disagree with Morning Consult. They also disagree with Zogby,  Pew, and Rasmussen. They generally disagree with anything that might discount the hard held belief that Hillary wins in a landslide so epic that the Republican Party is wiped off the face of the earth.

21 comments:

Roger Amick said...

No candidate in more than 60 years has come back to win after being so far behind at this point in the general-election campaign. Trump also is losing in surveys taken in battleground states where he is staking his campaign. Among those states is Virginia, where he has a 14-point deficit, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll published in the past week.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/with-a-comfortable-lead-clinton-begins-laying-plans-for-her-white-house-agenda/2016/08/20/4f21cef4-65ce-11e6-96c0-37533479f3f5_story.html?tid=sm_fb

Roger Amick said...

We are at a crossroads where our first priority must be saving our nation. We need a leader with qualities that resemble those of Winston Churchill, and I believe that leader is Donald Trump. As Churchill did, Trump possesses the resolve to put his country first and to never give up in a world that is increasingly hostile to our values.

Jerry Falwell Jr.

That's it.

I'm going to vote for Churchill... Trump.

C.H. Truth said...

I allowed this cut and paste to link, because this is such a great example of what we have been talking about...

Fact (according to Gallup polling)

Labor day numbers:

- Ronald Reagan was down four points to Jimmy Carter in 1980
- George H.W. Bush was down at one point by seventeen points to Michael Dukakis.
- George W Bush was down six points to Al Gore in 2000.


Last time I checked, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W Bush all became President.


The Washington Post is simply "wrong" in their analysis, or they are wildly off track with where they actually believe the polling is at.
____

The funny thing is that I supplied Roger with this information from Gallup referring to both Reagan and Bush being behind by similar margins coming into labor day (as it stands, Trump still may be within four by labor day on average).

Because he was going to write a post on the subject.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110074/shifts-last-two-months-election-uncommon.aspx

He admitted at that time that suggestions being made about this never happening were wrong. That Gallup disproved it, and he nixed the post.
_______

But a few days later he is back to "repeating" a debunked claim, because the Washington Post claims it.

Classic cognitive dissonance. He wants to believe it so bad that he simply will.

Roger Amick said...

In context, they were using the Electoral college numbers.

They are correct.

C.H. Truth said...

In context, they didn't always poll states individually over the past 60 years, and certainly not this often or this early. They didn't have every local news teams polling 450 people with an MOE in the mid teens, like they do today. There used to be two or three pollsters at best who concentrated mainly on national horse race polling.

So your explanation is a total load of crap. Either the Washington Post is making crap up or you are.

Bottom line: Any candidate who wins the national popular vote by at least two percent will almost assuredly win the electoral college. It's simple electoral demographic gravity.

opie' said...

Wow, again CH decides to limit his sample size to prove a point. the fact remains RCP is still in 4 way is 5.5% over a longer time period. As I said last week, the numbers will close, but with such gigantic revelations on how much debt he has and still no taxes released while Kelly is bull crapping she now thinks it serious just confirms he is hiding a real damaging revelation. Let's see them donny, you are now the transparently fraudulent candidate!!!! LOL

C.H. Truth said...

the fact remains RCP is still in 4 way is 5.5% over a longer time period

Yes...

Two weeks ago (Aug 7), RCP had it at exactly 7%
A week ago (Aug 14) RCP had the four way average at 6.4%
Today (Aug 21) it's at 5.5%

And in a couple of days, the Monmouth 13 point poll will be removed from the average, and the average will go down again...

So, again Opie... what direction do you see this going?

In Hillary's direction, or Trumps?

James said...

Which direction does Nate Silver see it going?
He still has Trumps's chances at a low 15%.

C.H. Truth said...

Good question James:

According to the "NowCast" which is his formula most reliant on the most recent polling:

Approximately two weeks ago (Aug 8th) Trump hit a low of 3.6%

Last weekend he was 9.5%

Today he is at 14.7%


I'd say that his models are moving in the same direction as what I am suggesting.

Myballs said...

Before we believe anything the wash post writes, they now have a story in which they say that bill Clinton 'allegedly' cheated in his wife.

The fact remains. There is a % of voters remaining quiet about supporting Trump. They don't want the hassle, the liberal rhetoric, the violence, or the accusations that they're racist bigots. It is much easier to stay silent.

How do I know? Because I am one of those voters.

KD, Bill got "Energized" and it was not from Hillary said...

Drudge is openly Mocking O'Hillary,,, I love that he has O'Hillary on top of a real victim of the tragedy that neither Hillary nor Obama could break from Vacation/Parta' to go and be there, wait one Person did that, got thanked by many for doing it, that would be Trump.


Further more his message to the poor/middle income black is simple, vote Trump, because voting Progressive got you in the hole your in.

Hillary medical problems mount, and mount and cough , cough, stumble , fall down and get a concussion , can't on her own get up a single flight of stairs, this issue is not going away. She is now resting up, from what, a $3,000 dinner with her Hubby?

KD, Blaming Colin Powell, stupid said...

Blaming Colin Powell for her Email server mess is not sitting well at all with a majority of the blacks in this fair minded nation.

wphamilton said...

I'm not one of those voters silently supporting Trump and I never will be, but I'll say this. It is becoming increasingly apparent that Clinton does in fact suffer some degree of brain damage. Look at the photographs, with no preconception of who she is if that's possible, and honestly ask yourself if that looks like a person normally in control of her faculties. I'm sorry, but to me she looks like a half-wit presenting a facade based on script and circumstance. I think that's why she cannot hold an unscripted press conference - because it would be obvious.

Add onto that her repeated failures, her history of association with corrupt actions, and the public medical concerns, along with the scathing criticism of her lack of "sophistication" by the FBI, and it becomes difficult to not prefer a random man from the streets, or even Donald Trump, over this candidate. For that reason, I don't doubt at all that silent Trump supporters are legion.

I have my own anecdotal support. 1:30 a.m. a few nights ago, a huge ruckuss outside. It was a woman's voice screaming and yelling hysterically. It didn't sound like a domestic fight (only one person's voice) so my wife stuck her head out the door and asked if they could lower the volume. The woman quieted down immediately. The young woman was screaming at her husband, who was trying to get out to drive to work or something. As it turned out, he'd mentioned to his wife that he'd decided to vote for Trump. She was literally hysterical, there was no reasoning, no tolerance. Not many people are willing to put up with that. If they are thinking Trump, they aren't going to be saying it in public.

Myballs said...

Yes it has been on the news many times now, Trump supporter attacked, injured, spat on, and so on. Better to keep silent than be subject to such intolerance.

I would also note that Trump is not my preferred choice. Several of the gang is 17 I liked better. But Trump won the nomination fair and square. And Hillary is do much a corrupt dishonest liar, that such a person should never be president.

I actually was considering voting for Bernie, not for his policies, but because I seemed like the most honest.

James said...

Ch is rejoicing that Trump has rocketed up to... uh.... to ... a ... a less than ten percent chance of winning.

Knee slapping funny.

James said...

Ch, have you noticed that although national polls show the race tightening, state polls don't?

KD said...

General Collin Powell spoke out against Hillary, called her a Liar, and told the press don't let her get away with blaming ME for her private Email Scandal.

It was so stupid of her to create this fake story to blame a High Decorated Black General and former Sec of State.

Unforced Error.

C.H. Truth said...

James - you asked me what direction things were going... I answered. It's going in Trump's direction (Nate Silver doesn't pretend differently like some do).

In the regular model (Polls plus) he has Trump at 25% chance of winning. That means he believes that if (from this point) we moved forward four different times, that Trump would win at least one.

C.H. Truth said...

RCP is still in 4 way is 5.5% over a longer time period.

Well Opie...

as of this morning, the four way race on RCP is at 4.5 percent. So it appears to be closing, huh?

James said...

Well, Ch, I understand that Priebus is predicting that Trump will be catching up to Clinton in the next two weeks.

Do you predict that too?

I also understand that a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Clinton with one of her biggest leads ever:
12 points: 45% to 33%.

If you include Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (as you like to do), Clinton's lead drops to 8 points (41% - 33%).

Ch, how do you square your and Priebus' optimism about Trump's chances with the simple fact that this new poll shows him even further behind than previous polls?

I note, by the way, that this newest Ipsos/Reuters poll does not appear in your sidebar. Why not?

C.H. Truth said...

James

No - I don't believe that Trump and Clinton will be tied on Labor day. But I would think things will continue to gravitate towards a closer race. I don't believe there is anything going on in the news right now helping Clinton or hurting Trump.

Secondly...

Ispos will put out their release of that poll on Thursday or Friday complete with their cross tabs and details.

Last Friday Ipsos put out their press release saying that Hillary had a five point lead in a head to head and a four point lead in the four way race. A few hours later, Reuters put out a story saying that the poll showed Clinton up nine points in the head to head match up and seven in a four way race.

Who should you believe? The Pollster or the media outlet who hires them? I tend to trust the pollster.

Real Clear Politics has always waited for the Ipsos weekly release. Huffington Post used to track the daily Reuter's releases, but are now updating it as a weekly release (using the Ipsos release as well).

Maybe you can level your accusations of cherry picking poll results to them as well. See how they respond.