Monday, September 12, 2016

This is interesting...

This is the Florida polling as shown by Nate Silver:

  • YouGov - Hillary +2
  • JMC  - Trump +4
  • Ispos - was Clinton +7 was Clinton +4 - now Tied
  • Quinnipiac - Tied
  • PPP - Trump +1
  • GCR - Trump +9 (twice)
  • S.M. - Hillary +2
So technically there are only two polls still showing Clinton ahead. YouGov and Survey Monkey - both by Two. The Iposos poll has dropped from a seven point Clinton lead, to even. Quinnipiac shows it even, and JMC, PPP and Google Consumer Reports have Trump up by four, one, and nine. 

A simple average, using just the latest polling from each pollster shows Trump up by about one and a half points.  However, Silver still shows the opposite: Clinton up by about a point and a half. Still not quite sure how all of this calculation works. But it seems to me that every time I look at a left leaning site that is poll watching (538, TPM, Huffington Post) they have this Hillary is leading buffer, built up from using old and outdated polling in their averages to reduce the short term effects of poll movement in Trump's favor.  


rrb said...

Still not quite sure how all of this calculation works.

it could be according to just how deep jour0lister nate has to reach inside of his rectum to achieve the desired results.

KD, Down goes Hillary, ugly said...

Where is HB, Jane and Opium?

They all have her at plus 11 and climbing.

I am proud to be in the same bucket as 88 Former High Ranking Command Officers of the United States ARMED Forces that support Trump as CnC.

Did Hillary just have another Stroke?

Timing it is said in life is everything, the press as hard as they have tried can not cover for video and audio of all of her medical problems.

James said...

Nate Silver at 538, updated a few minutes ago, still has Hillary beating Donald by more than two thirds % in all three of his methods for forecasting the election.

Indy Voter said...

Eh. Scott Elliott only moved the needle for Florida over to Trump today, and he's got the race at +0.2% for Trump.

Indy Voter said...

You can see how each poll is weighted on 538's site. Older polls from the same pollster are weighted less, so the older Google result is not weighted heavily. There are some fairly old polls that weigh strongly because there are no more recent polls from that firm. SurveyUSA is 4.7% of the weight with a June poll (C+4). Saint Leo is 4.6% of the weight with a mid-August poll (C+14). FAU (T+2) and Mason-Dixon (C+2) each weigh in over 5% with late August polls. Overall, 61% of the weighting is based on polls completed before this month started.

It's not how I would rank the importance of different polls in the state, but 538 is free to use whatever they think is the most appropriate method.

Indy Voter said...

I'm seeing reports tonight that HMS Terror has been located in the Arctic. It was found at the bottom of Terror Bay, about halfway between where she and HMS Erebus were reported abandoned by their crews and where Erebus was found two years ago.

Initial reports (with video) are that Terror is in excellent shape.

Roger Amick said...

I'm not sure that Nate Silver is left or right, when he does his analysis. Every polling pundit has to choose between different sources of information. The time line, methods, sources of information and how to weight them

rrb said...

at the end of the day silver is a journOlist hack. his left wing bias informs his anal-ysis.

Loretta Russo said...

"I'm not sure that Nate Silver is left or right, when he does his analysis."

Seriously, leave this to others here.

C.H. Truth said...

One of his highest ranking poll is one that he doesn't grade, was from mid August, and shows Clinton with a 13 point lead. That should tell us something.

But if he was truly objective and non-partisan, he would (by average) miss races in both directions. But he doesn't. In Senate races, for example, he missed five races in recent elections. In all cases, the Republican won and he projected the Republican to lose.

The statistical odds of missing in the same direction five time in a row is about 3% (one out of thirty three times this would happen at random).

KD, Hillary follow the $$$$$$$$$$$ said...

Remember what the lying democrats tell the sheeple.

They are against the spending of money to win an election.

Yet, Hillary has outspent Trump by $4 for every $1 dollar Trump has spent.

HER paces have spent $3/$1.

Yet, HER can not pull away.