Monday, October 24, 2016

Democratic Party in collusion with Media polling?

Wikileaks released some emails where the Democratic Party was advising pollsters how to skew samples for purposes of inflating polling results for Democrats:

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
Research, microtargeting & polling projects - Over-sample Hispanics - Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets) - Over-sample the Native American population
- Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state. - On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
- General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions - Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed - Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

Now, certainly this all sounds like a giant National inquirer style, blown out of proportion story that will be quickly dismissed as much by (ironically) the very media outlets who may be considered to be following said advice. It's also not a call out to "media pollsters" but specifically to one pollster. However, the fact that there are big differences in sampling number is apparent to anyone who really pays attention. It's one of the "first" things that you should look for when you see that polling "outlier".

But it doesn't always play out as you might imagine: Here are a handful of the current polling demographic sampling:

  • New ABC/Washington Post tracking poll - Democrats +9 
  • TIPP - Democrats +8 
  • NBC/Survey Monkey - Democrats +6 
  • LA Times - Democrats +6
  • YouGov - Democrats +5

As you can see... the ABC/WP poll is expecting the "best" demographic result for the Democrats, whereas the YouGov poll is expecting the "best" demographic result for the Republicans. But as a whole, the differences don't really seem to be able to account for the differences between the pollsters. 

How is it (for instance) that the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll show an twelve point lead, white TIPP has it virtually tied, and the Party affiliation breakdown is fairly even between the two polls? In this case, the answer is actually within the Demographics, especially with Independents. In the ABC/WP poll they show Independents going in favor of Clinton by eight points, whereas TIPP shows Independents going in favor or Trump by nine points. To be fair, out of the fifteen polls I track for Demographics only four of them show Clinton winning Independents, and only the ABC/WP poll has her winning by anything more than two points. Overall, the "average" of Independents shows Trump approximately plus five. So as it goes, the ABC/WP polls seems to be an outlier in those regards (by a pretty large margin). This could suggest that a different demographic "within" the Independent samples was used.  But does this prove collusion? I doubt it.

Bottom line:  I have always argued that early Media polls cannot be trusted. It seems as though the polls often times are done in support of a pre-written story, rather than the other way around. But as the election draws near, these media polls fall back into line with the independent polling. Nobody wants to be "wrong" when it comes to polling. In fact, generally speaking by the time we hit October, the polls are converging.  

In 2012, for instance, the largest poll for Obama the last five weeks or so was a plus five, while the largest poll for Romney during that time was plus 4.  Only three October/November polls were more than three points off the final RCP average.  All the rest fell between a plus four for Obama and a plus two for Romney. That's a remarkable consistency. 

But as has been pointed out over and over... this is not the case in 2016. We are only two weeks out from the election and we are still seeing a polling range of fourteen points (or more). In fact, there seems to be two or possibly three different "sets" of data points. One with a Clinton lead approaching double digits, one with four-six Clinton lead, and one where the race toggles back and forth between the two (a virtual tie). 

This is unprecedented. No matter how you want to chalk it up. Collusion between the Democrats and media polling? Doubtful. A ton of disagreement about how the 2016 electorate is going to look? Absolutely. At the end of the day, unless there is a dramatic swing in polling the last two weeks here, a large number of pollsters will be very wrong (one way or the other). 

72 comments:

opie said...

e are still seeing a polling range of fourteen points (or more). In fact, there seems to be two or possibly three different "sets" of data points. One with a Clinton lead approaching double digits, one with four-six Clinton lead, and one where the race toggles back and forth between the tw

Brilliant analysis CH. Seems that covers just about every permutation. In fact if I am not mistaken, you can claim you called the election no mater what the out come is thus preserving your perfect record. Thanx for the laugh. Keep up the amazing punditry, I'm sure someone will notice.

KD, Less Blacks own thier homes, HB Cheers said...

We know that Hillary Campaign has directed most pollsters to over sample for the left.

Renowned reporter Bob Woodward called Hillary Clinton's connections to "pay for play" through the Clinton Foundation and the access she had given when she was secretary of state "corrupt" and something that voters should be troubled by, Woodward told Fox News' Chris Wallace "

Mr. Wallace does a very good job and being fair in his questioning of Witnesses.


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

This is a very unusual election.

Right or wrong, the Clinton campaign and the DNC are focusing on down the ballot campaigns. Their internal polls must be showing them that the have the EVC sewn up. BTW, Karl Rove agreed. You seem to think that the Wiki Leak stories are going to turn it around.

So far, all they have are letters between different people in the campaign are purely political comments, and discussions on political strategy.

I'm convinced that the Trump is going down to a massive defeat. The networks are going to call the election, very early in the evening. His supporters, outside the base core of his support are all he will have by November 8.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Amidst reports that occupancy rates at Trump Hotels have slipped this election season, the company has announced that new brand hotels will no longer bear the Trump name. “We wanted a name that would be a nod to the Trump family and to the tremendous success it has had with its businesses, including Trump Hotels, while allowing for a clear distinction between our luxury and lifestyle brands,” Trump Hotels CEO Eric Danziger said in a statement.

LOL!!

KD said...

Woodward Nails Hillary.


This is from that guy that the Left just adores.


Hillary's Slush fund has received 10's of Millions less "Contributions" then in years past, seems those that gave so much now want to cash in their chips.

She is the first bought and paid for President in Modern US History.

KD said...

The networks are going to call the election, very early in the evening"


Kerry WINS,, lol @ HB Every Day

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

*** this is not the case in 2016.***

True. Neither Romney nor Obama said what Trump said about women.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

If polling, both internal and public, is not indicating an EV disaster for Trump, why are GOP campaigners pulling their money from his campaign and concentrating solely on defending as many downticket seats as they can?

KD, It must be Monday Hillary changed her polices again said...

African American Poverty Rate: 24.1%

Hispanic Poverty Rate: 21.4%

White Poverty Rate: 9.1%
US Census Data


That is what 8 years of O'Hillary Policies have done for the Minorities.

Hillary is now going full blown in , for TPP.

C.H. Truth said...

No Roger...

I have not and am not projecting any sort of "wikileaks" win for Donald Trump or anything of the sort.

In fact, I have made no personal predictions of any sort regarding this election, or will I... other than the spreadsheet averages projecting a 3-4 point popular vote and at least a 322 ECV Clinton win based on what the polling and spreadsheets are showing.


But please Roger... continue to lie, assume, and make things up about me.

KD, said...


(CNN) — Russia plans to expand its supply base in the Syrian port city of Tartus into a permanent naval base, Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Monday, according to state news agency TASS.

"In Syria, we will have a permanent naval base in Tartus. The corresponding documents have been drafted. Currently they are in the process of inter-departmental coordination," said Pankov, during a meeting of Russia's "


Hillary's Russian Re-Set is going great, right on schedule.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Clinton has already quietly started reaching out to Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill, people familiar with the talks say, reconnecting with old allies in the Senate whose help she will need for her agenda in the first 100 days and beyond.

The private conversations with Republicans are particularly sensitive, given that Democrats are fighting to win the Senate. Yet people familiar with the discussions say she is intent on sending a signal that she hopes to have better relations with Congress than Obama and she is eager to work with Republicans who were turned off by Trump.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

n fact, I have made no personal predictions of any sort regarding this election, or will I... other than the spreadsheet averages projecting a 3-4 point popular vote and at least a 322 ECV Clinton win based on what the polling and spreadsheets are showing.


But please Roger... continue to lie, assume, and make things up about me.


Your almost daily attacks on Clinton, can lead some to believe that you have taken his side.

KD, Old stupid HB said...

HB a technological as well as Economic/Financial Retard.

Myballs said...

Considering we have a Podesta email that reads like a manual on poll rigging, putting any stock in the polls is useless.

However, one thing we can see is the huge trump crowds and the small Clinton crowds.

opie said...


"Your almost daily attacks on Clinton" and consistent complaining all the polls except for IBD and LA times are in the tank for clinton and are unfair. Aw gee whiz CH, life is unfair except when it comes to defending donnie, the crooked. LOL

opie said...

Anonymous Myballs said...
Considering we have a Podesta email that reads like a manual on poll rigging, putting any stock in the polls is useless

And in your narrow, biased mind, wouldn't you think any poll is intimately aware on how to sample on the bias and they go to great lengths providing their data so no one has an iota of doubt they are on the up and up? Or are you saying they are all crooked like trump has convinced you. That sure is thinking for yourself, ballz. LOL

KD, Bill Clinton Trashes ObamaNomics Again said...

What we do know is that Hillary has no agenda, not one that she has spelled out.

Does it matter, not really, the US Press has been playing hide the Werdio very well.

Myballs said...

So according to dopie, the polls aren't rigged because they know how to do it.

Lol. We don't call him dopie for nothing.

Indy Voter said...

Ummmmm... This sure reads like directions to the campaign's own pollsters. Oversample subgroups that you want to message to, or where you want to measure the effectiveness of your message.

Oh, and this email reportedly is from 2008.

C.H. Truth said...

can lead some to believe that you have taken his side.

So apparently Roger cannot separate who he is voting for with who he expects to win?

This is how you come up with "Kerry in a landslide".

Anonymous said...

Nobody wants to be "wrong" when it comes to polling.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

in this election i disagree. the bias mask has slipped from the media, shit, they ripped it completely off, and all they care about is stopping trump. period. whatever it takes. they don't care if the polling is wildly wrong, it's the results that count.

the media during this election has taken a page from the harry reid playbook. reid got called out in an interview for peddling his false claim about romney not paying taxes. and reid said - "so what? he didn't win, did he?"

that's where we are. stop trump at all costs. honesty and objectivity be damned.


Anonymous said...

So apparently Roger cannot separate who he is voting for with who he expects to win?

This is how you come up with "Kerry in a landslide".
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

considering how disrespectful he's been to you and your hospitality, i'd leave him off the disqus approval list if i were you.

let him flail around by himself on the legacy blog. his own personal insane asylum.

Anonymous said...

Your almost daily attacks on Clinton, can lead some to believe that you have taken his side.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

clinton's a fucking criminal on stilts. and today we learn that her butt boy terry mcauliffe handed over close to half a mil to the wife of a big cheese at the fbi who was directly involved in the clinton investigation.

the clinton's couldn't get any more corrupt if they tried. pointing that out on a daily basis is what intelligent people are prone to do.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger apparently doesn't have the intellectual capacity to differentiate or compartmentalize arguments. It's all or nothing (as it is with many simple minded people).

There is no consideration that someone may "want" someone to win but "believe" they may lose. There is no consideration that you may reject some of the arguments made by a person, while accepting other arguments.

In his mind:

an attack on Hillary = believing Trump will win
criticizing a specific argument by Nate Silver = I believe Nate Silver is wrong about everything

It's just an inability to parse anything.

Anonymous said...





well that settles it. i'm over 90% convinced that hillary wins. i must be a hillary supporter.

and nate silver? once a jour0lister, always a journ0lister.

he's an insufferable hack who has only really been able to impress the dim bulbs at the ny times who sign the front of his paycheck.








wphamilton said...

Anonymous Indy Voter said...
Ummmmm... This sure reads like directions to the campaign's own pollsters.


Considering media collusion in other aspects of this race, that isn't much of a stretch to include media polls.

C.H. Truth said...

WP - Does anyone honestly believe that the media pollsters would need to be told exactly how to skew polling results? Seems pretty straightforward to me.

Anonymous said...


need to be told? no. but collusional conversations? oh yeah.

as in, "make sure you keep dem oversampling in single digits. 9% but not 10%. don't get greedy, don't make it TOO obvious."

plus, plausible deniability. that must be maintained.

no one needs to be told how to turn out the dead and the illegal vote either, especially in chicago. but you can be sure there are conversations going on about it.

Anonymous said...



huh. over 65 journ0lists were invited to collude with the hildebeast:

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/09/exclusive-new-email-leak-reveals-clinton-campaigns-cozy-press-relationship/

guccifer found it and greenwald wrote about it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...


Clinton Now Tries to Build a Mandate

Rick Klein: “You can’t force a mandate. But Hillary Clinton is now in the enviable position of having some control over what this election will say to both her supporters and opponents. Should she continue on her current trajectory, she’s in line for a major victory, bordering on a blowout by modern standards. ABC News’ new tracking poll has Clinton crushing Donald Trump by 20 points among women nationally, and even up slightly among men. A win that broad, perhaps with an Arizona and/or a Georgia tipping blue, would signal a message that carried beyond expected demographic and geographical boundaries.”

“Fifty-six percent of Clinton supporters say they are mainly voting to support her rather than to oppose Trump; Trump’s similar number is only 41. If Clinton can convince the country that she is going to win by offering up herself – as opposed to being there solely as an alternative to Trump – it could have implications for governing in the not-so-distant future.”
__________________

TRUMP ONCE OPPOSED DEPORTING IMMIGRANTS

Just four years ago, CNN notes that Donald Trump took a drastically different position on what is now his central issue: deporting undocumented immigrants in the United States.

Said Trump: “You know my views on it and I’m not necessarily, I think I’m probably down the middle on that also. Because I also understand how, as an example, you have people in this country for 20 years, they’ve done a great job, they’ve done wonderfully, they’ve gone to school, they’ve gotten good marks, they’re productive — now we’re supposed to send them out of the country, I don’t believe in that.”
__________________

Nevada Republicans Worry About an Early Election Call

Washington Post: “Many Republicans familiar with Nevada worry about this nightmare scenario: If Trump loses decisively along the Eastern seaboard—New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and/or Florida—the networks could declare that Clinton is the president-elect before polls even close in Nevada. Many core GOP voters typically cast their ballots while commuting home from work. What if a couple percent of them decide that the election is over and it’s not worth waiting in line? Because Republicans are so reliant on these voters, and Democrats will have so many votes locked in from early voting, it could lead to a down-ticket bloodbath. At the very least, it could tip a close Senate race to Cortez Masto.”

KD, Trump is spot on, Media Hillary's Bitch said...

What we do know is that Hillary has no agenda, not one that she has spelled out.


And even with the water carrying Jane just attempted , as always she come up short.


I forced myself to read your posts Jane, vapid as they all are, nothing about what the agenda is, too late now, she had her chance.

Best I see coming from her is vote for me I have a cunt .



KD said...

Remember Obama promised no tax hikes on those making less then $250,000, he lied, I know , it is what progressives do.


"Most workers pay 6.2 percent of their earnings into the Social Security system, and employers match this amount, until their salary exceeds the taxable maximum. The maximum taxable earnings amount will increase from $118,500 in 2016 to $127,200 in 2017"

Yep , that is a increase in taxes , lower the about that goes home and unavailable for the family, unavailable for savings, or college or hell the regular bills.

KD, SS failure said...

The increases range as high as 30 percent to 50 percent, according to new data.

Shaken by the decisions of Aetna, UnitedHealthcare, Blue Cross Blue Shield and other giants to pull out of many states after incurring hundreds of millions in losses, state insurance regulators appear more than willing to go along with these rate increases to prop up insurers remaining in the program."


Make no mistake this too is a huge Tax on the workers. But, you don't care about you fellow American, Obama gave you your wet dream and too hell with those of us that pay our own way and those that have been so unlucky to be forced into ObamaCare.

Tax , tax and more taxes, Hillary has over 15 waiting for Jan. 2017. to stick it to the workers and business owners .

KD, Hillary put Blacks back to the back of the Bus said...

Where is Black Lives Matter movement, have then been used and now join the forgot ranks of Occupy Wallstreet and other cash for mobs supported by the likes of scum like Hillary , Obimbo?


When was the last time we saw/heard from Rev, Wright, Jackson or Sharpton.


They all have been shelved now, the race for President is too close to let them be see/heard at this point.

wphamilton said...

Blogger C.H. Truth said...
WP - Does anyone honestly believe that the media pollsters would need to be told exactly how to skew polling results?

They were given instructions on what to cover, how to cover it and who to take seriously so yes, maybe they would need to be told exactly how to skew it.

I'm curious about one thing though. Trump is claiming that all of the polls are wrong. Made up by Democrats. If that's the case, and if Trump knows it to be, then why doesn't he release his own internal polls that would presumably prove it? Unless his own polls are also made up by Democrats? Or his campaign forgot to commission polls?

opie said...

They were given instructions on what to cover

I did not realize that pollsters are told what to poll or cover. I believe that is pretty self evident to anyone who would call polling as his expertise.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Wp, you shouldn't ask questions like those. The answers are just TOO obvious.

KD, FBI Paid OFF said...

Hillary Clinton's Paid Off the FBI - CONFIRMED!
The Political Insider‎ - 8 hours ago

Hillary Clinton's $500,000 Bribe to the FBI Came Through Virginia – CONFIRMED! Kosar ... gave $467,500 to the state senate campaign for FBI agent Andrew McCabe's wife."

Yep, nothing like being this corrupt.

The Agent , well he was the Agent that just happened to have been promoted to oversee the White Wash of the Hillary Email criminal probe.


WTF is wrong with you leftist , are you really that brain dead?

KD, Higher taxes on Middle income , Yep, Obama Delivered 37 of them said...

I did not realize that pollsters are told what to poll or cover. I believe that is pretty self evident to anyone who would call polling as his expertise. " HalfJaneDope


Well, these same companies that poll now do it full time for a host of business, so yes, they are told what to poll and how to cover the topic they are being paid to gather data on.


One more area that the HalfJaneDope is under educated about.

KD, Do you Hate America as much a Obama/Hillary/Sanders? said...

Because the race is over , they are openly plotting to kill Capitalism.

"In an interview, Sanders said he and other senators have started plotting legislation that would achieve many of the proposals that fueled his insurgent run for president, including a $15 federal minimum wage, tuition-free public college, ending “mass incarceration” and aggressive steps to fight climate change.

The senators, Sanders said, also plan to push for the breakup of “too big to fail” banks and to pressure Clinton to appoint liberals to key Cabinet positions, including treasury secretary. Sanders said he would not stay silent if Clinton nominates the “same old, same old Wall Street guys” to regulatory positions that are important in enacting and overseeing the financial reforms that he supports."

HalfJaneDope--- when did you begin to Hate America?

wphamilton said...

James said...
Wp, you shouldn't ask questions like those. The answers are just TOO obvious.


You mean rhetorical questions? Trump doesn't have any internal polls, because he could read the news polls for free.

wphamilton said...

* $15 federal minimum wage,
* tuition-free public college,
* ending “mass incarceration”
* aggressive steps to fight climate change.

All excellent ideas that frankly should be no-brainers. The only one that would be subject to rational debate is 0-tuition college. Good in principle, but it needs to come with a stipulation of proven effort and ability or else we'll be wasting money and holding true scholars back.

*push for the breakup of “too big to fail” banks

Overdue by about 10 years.

* no “same old, same old Wall Street guys” to regulatory positions that are important in enacting and overseeing the financial reforms

I've got some swamp land to sell to anyone who thinks Clinton won't, or that Sanders can have any influence over it.

wphamilton said...

I did not realize that pollsters are told what to poll or cover

Media coverage, not polls. You've seen the emails, right?

opie said...


Media coverage, not polls. You've seen the emails, right?

Not to be a pain, but the subject was pollsters from this "believe that the media pollsters" i've seen the e-mails and they seem to me nothing more than political speculation in private discussions. A big yawn unless you are trying to prove something nefarious and seedy, which IMHO is not.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...


folks, would you like a more honest assessment than is provided by Ch's sidebar? Then go here:

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

The blogmeister of this site is a conservative evangelical Christian who favors the Republicans, but keeps his prognosticating objective.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Clinton Seeks to Run Up the Score

“Hillary Clinton and her allies have an animating aim in the final 14 days of the 2016 contest – drive up the score so dramatically that claims by Donald Trump of Democratic vote-rigging will be rendered inconsequential thanks to the margin of victory,” Politico reports.

“And if their final bombardment of campaign activity drags down-ballot Democrats across the finish line and sweeps proponents of Trump’s alt-right ideology off the political table, all the better.”
______________________

State Poll Roundup: Monday

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

North Carolina: Clinton 47%, Trump 46%, Johnson 4% (Monmouth)

North Carolina: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (PPP)

North Carolina: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%, Johnson 8% (Lucid)

Florida: Clinton 45%, Trump 39%, Johnson 6% (Lucid)

Virginia: Clinton 43%, Trump 38%, Johnson 9% (Lucid)

Georgia: Clinton 44%, Trump 40%, Johnson 8% (Lucid)

Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 41%, Johnson 8% (Bendixen& Amandi)

Nevada: Clinton 46%, Trump 42%, Johnson 5% (Rasmussen)
2016 CampaignRead More »
______________________________

Trump Allies Were Ready to Take Illegal Foreign Donations

“Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is facing a fundraising scandal after a Telegraph investigation exposed how key supporters were prepared to accept illicit donations from foreign backers.”

“Senior figures involved with the Great America PAC, one of the leading ‘independent’ groups organizing television advertisements and grassroots support for the Republican nominee, sought to channel $2 million from a Chinese donor into the campaign to elect the billionaire despite laws prohibiting donations from foreigners.”

“In return, undercover reporters purporting to represent the fictitious donor were assured that he would obtain ‘influence’ if Mr Trump made it to the White House.”

TREASON!!!
____________________
Quote of the Day
“Nasty women are tough. Nasty women are smart. And nasty women vote. We nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever.”
— Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), quoted by the New York Times, in a devastating take down of Donald Trump.

"She gets under his skin like nobody else."
--Hillary Clinton
_______________________

Clinton Just Shy of Reaching 50% In New Poll

A new CNN/ORC poll finds Hillary Clinton tops Donald Trump nationally by five points, 49% to 44%, with just 3% backing Gary Johnson and 2% behind Jill Stein.

Key finding: “Clinton now stands at 53% among voters under age 45, compared with 47% in the previous CNN/ORC poll. In fact, the only age group where Clinton currently trails Trump is among those age 50-64, who back Trump by 4 points in this poll.”

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

While live on the air Fox Host Shepard Smith shocked the world when he said:

The House committee investigating the deadly terror attack in Benghazi today released its report. After a two-year $7 million investigation, the eighth investigation to date, the authors of the report make no new accusations and provide no new evidence of wrongdoing against the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

CH Truth.

1: Do you believe that we should build the wall?
2: Do you believe the Mexican government will pay the bill?
3: Do you believe that Roe vs Wade should be overturned?
4: Do you believe that we should penalize women who get an abortion?
5: Do you believe that we should ban all Muslims from entering the country?
6: Do you believe that LGBT should be forbidden to get married?
7: Do you believe that we should expel every illegal immigrant?
8: Do you believe that if Donald Trump does not win, that he should not accept the voters results and wish our President good will?
9: Do you believe that Hillary Clinton will repeal the Second Amendment by herself?
10: Do you believe that all eleven women have accused Donald Trump of sexual misbehavior are lying?
11: Do you believe that the national election is rigged?
12: Do you believe that Donald J Trump is mentally qualified to be President?
13: Do you believe that we should use military force if sailors on an Iranian vessel give our sailors disrespectful hand gestures?
14: Do you want Japan, Saudi Arabia and South Korea have nuclear weapons at their control?
15: Do you believe that the United States should use nuclear weapons arbitrarily, not in response to nuclear attacks on our allies or this country?

Please be intellectually honest and don't respond with another question to avoid a direct answer. These are all accurate questions based upon the statements by the Republican candidate.

Anonymous said...

Roger Amick said...
While live on the air Fox Host Shepard Smith shocked the world when he said:
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

here's the link to your asshattery, rog:


http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/10/24/fox-news-just-admitted-benghazi-investigation-hoax-smear-hillary/


Anonymous said...

Please be intellectually honest
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

typical liberal. demand of others what they would never ever do themselves.

KD, Warren is a Bigger Nut then Hillbilly said...

HalfJaneDope,,, I read your posts over the last few days and it is really great to see that all three of you are of one low IQ mind.

However, you all will fully support President Trump , Right?

Less add one more area to the long list of hypocrisy .


More and more this election is becoming a dead heat with Trump Leading more and more, it might be why the left is going ever more left in public.

No BLM, NO Rev's,, they have been told by Hillary , to sit down, shut up and know your place.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Trump Says Polls Are Biased

At a rally in Florida yesterday, Donald Trump said that the naional polls showing Hillary Clinton leading are biased because their samples contain more Democrats than Republicans. He called it "voter suppression," a trick dreamed up by the Democrats to demoralize his voters and have them stay home on Election Day. Trump's remark about there being more Democrats than Republicans is true, but not because pollsters are in cahoots with Democrats. The country simply has more Democrats than Republicans, so a a truly random poll will reflect that. In 2012, exit polls showed that the electorate had 38% Democrats and 32% Republicans. The 2008 exit polls showed something similar. In 2004, the parties were even. The reality is that the country has become more Democratic since 2004, in part due to demographic changes in the population, and in part due to older voters, who skew Republican, dying off and being replaced by younger voters, who skew Democratic. (Tannenbaum).

So Much for Wikileaks?

Bill Scher, writing for RealClearPolitics, has an interesting item on Wikileaks in which he wonders why the e-mail dump didn't hurt Hillary Clinton more (certainly, nowhere near as much as Julian Assange, Roger Stone, et al. were hoping). His primary answer to this question is that Donald Trump has no ability to stay out of the headlines, and to let an opponent twist in the wind. As such, The Donald spent much of time while the Wikileaks story was fresh engaging in verbal battles with female accusers. That dominated the headlines, and took the oxygen out of the e-mail dump. A second, somewhat lesser, reason is that the e-mails ultimately weren't that shocking—they merely confirmed what we suspected about Clinton in particular and about politicians in general.

Scher also makes a second argument, one that may have more long-term relevance. He points out, probably correctly, that any campaign's private emails would likely contain much of the same kind of stuff (or, in Trump's case, maybe even worse stuff). He suggests that now that the public has seen how the sausage is made, future dumps of this sort are likely to raise even fewer eyebrows. If so, then one of Wikileaks' (and the Russians') most potent avenues of attack has been cut off at the knees. (Bates)

Anonymous said...

Bill Scher, writing for RealClearPolitics...
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

...is a liberal tool and dishonest hack who purposefully misses the point to deceive his readers.

"LiberalOasis.com has been the online home of commentator Bill Scher since 2002."

the msm/DNC press pool refuses to report on wikileaks. that's why the lying criminal bitch wasn't hurt by them -



The “Big Three” networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) put their undying loyalty to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton on full display Monday evening, as they completely blacked out two news stories with explosive consequences for the campaign.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2016/10/24/nets-ignore-stories-damaging-clinton-hype-her-confidence-and

Commonsense said...

Pretty fair criticism and not the first time I heard poll critics make that same argument.

BTW 20,000 attended that rally. That's 20,000 that will show up at the polls and vote.

KD , More Poor Blacks In the USA today said...

typical liberal. demand of others what they would never ever do themselves."

Yep. Hell the Three Retarded Progressive Stooges never want to debate policy of Hillary, or can't is more like it.


KD LESS Blacks own homes today then 6 years ago said...

Why does the truth about media Bias and corruption on ever Federal Level involving Hillary Clinton not hurt her?

Because the idiot Progressive Ownership of the Democrat party that you are a part of loves power over Country.

Got any other questions Jane.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Can Clinton actually Win Texas?

Florida Spirals Away From Trump

Clinton Maintains Lead As GOP Fractures

politicalwire.com

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

SO much good reading at electoral-vote.com today.

opie said...

Who yesterday was complaining about the Facebook news feed yesterday, As I thought, it was total bs again. Another attempt to win over the electorate seems to be a rather poor argument.

“Obama to Declare MARTIAL LAW If Trump Wins Election.” That was the teaser text that recently popped up on my Facebook news feed. It directed me to a post from a page called Nation in Distress, one of the many hyper partisan Facebook pages that have gained in popularity this year.

Your really not that bright, whoever posted that comment.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

YOU'LL LIKELY BE READING ONE OF THESE FIVE ARTICLES THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll-likely-be-reading-one-of-these-5-articles-the-day-after-the-election/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Myballs said...

More evidence that the polls are being cooked by pro Hillary firms. Trump coattails are showing themselves in MN-08 congressional district where tge dem incumbent Nolan trails the gop challenger Mills.

Add that to the huge crowds trump is drawing.......20000 in Tampa, 30000 in Cleveland, etc.

Alk this is why we're getting the universal narrative from the big media that Hillary has already won. They're trying to slow the trump revolution.

Even with tge news media ignoring the project veritas and wikileaks exposure of Clinton corruption, voters are seeing it all ob the internet.

opie said...


More evidence that the polls are being cooked by pro Hillary firms.


BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Keep wishing ballz.....i got some fairy dust to help you. LOL

Myballs said...

Such a well constructed counter argument. Well done dopie.

wphamilton said...

opie said...
Who yesterday was complaining about the Facebook news feed yesterday, As I thought, it was total bs again. Another attempt to win over the electorate seems to be a rather poor argument.

“Obama to Declare MARTIAL LAW If Trump Wins Election.”


That's the kind of absurd slander that, passed back and forth in a confirmation bias feedback loop, is what gifted us with Trump in the first place. You'd think they'd start to learn.

opie said...

You'd think they'd start to learn.

REALLY WP???? I posted that because ballz posted that Facebook news was biased in favor of hillary. I agree with your conclusion and add we are the ones at fault since we allow the incumbent congress critters to remain in place in spite of getting nothing done other than saving his seat.......anyone spell term limits????? Can't fix massive stupid, can we????

Anonymous said...

“Obama to Declare MARTIAL LAW If Trump Wins Election.”

That's the kind of absurd slander that, passed back and forth in a confirmation bias feedback loop, is what gifted us with Trump in the first place. You'd think they'd start to learn.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

indeed.

especially since you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in the military at any level who would agree to enforce the order.


opie said...

especially since you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in the military at any level who would agree to enforce the order.

Indeed, if you fell for the Facebook headline, my guess is the military is smarter than you and would not respond like you did, in a panic. IDIOT

Anonymous said...



i dismissed it, you fucking dope.

eat a pistol.

opie said...

rrb said...
i dismissed it, you fucking dope.
eat a pistol.

Impressive comment for someone as stupid as you. Aggie flunk out.....impressive rat that your life is such a waste.