Sunday, October 9, 2016

Quick Post Debate Analysis

Notes:
  • The online polls all show Trump winning again... this time by even larger margins. Not that this matters.
  • CNN poll showed 57% of CNN viewers thought Hillary won. Only problem was that 58% of the sample already supported Clinton. (How many Republicans watch CNN?)
  • You Gov poll shows Hillary with a 47-42 win... however, the sample had a double digit weight advantage Democrats over Republicans. 
  • Donald Trump's betting line went up during the last half of the debate and ended higher than it did when it started. Apparently betters believed that Trump helped himself tonight. I bet it was the Abraham Lincoln quip. 
  • Some left wing pundits are upset that certain questions were not asked of Trump (including no questions about the loss of support with GOP leadership). This tells me they didn't think Clinton won. 
  • Trump went after the moderators. Was a good move. Would have been better had he done the same in the first debate.
  • Mike Pence tweeted that he was proud to stand with Trump, and congratulated him on his "big debate win".  I guess he is not dropping off the ticket.
  • A fly landed on Hillary Clinton's face during the debate. This likely means something in some obscure religion. 

This debate was almost the opposite of the first date. The first debate offered up about 30 minutes of actual policy debate, before getting very personal (against Donald Trump). Trump did well for the first 30 minute, but obviously became defensive as the questions turned to his taxes, and other personal issues. This debate offered about 30 minutes of personal mudslinging, before settling into an actual policy debate. Trump appeared by most accounts to do well during the "policy" portion of the debate (once again).

I am not as convinced as some that the first 30 minutes was bad for Donald. In fact, I think it worked in his favor to see Hillary dive into the mud, and get down and dirty with him. Whether or not the 'Bill did worse" strategy worked or not is a legitimate question. Personally I would have liked to have seen Trump tell people that he has "changed" since 2005 rather than sort of discount the statement as locker room banter... but at the end of the day, I think the debate was well timed to help him move past this.

Bottom Line: Clinton won the first one. I think Trump won this one.  We should all look forward to the rubber match with the well respected Chris Wallace running the show.


49 comments:

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Ar first, I didn't disagree much.

But I started to think abut the implications of as a first thing is to get a special prosecutor to investigate his opponent. That's third world or as Indy said, it was like Stalin. "She should be in jail".

The other was the visuals of every time she was speaking he stood behind her and made is "Trump" face. A lot of people take the visuals as important.

He went after Pence.

Hillary should have reminded everyone who opposed him and the fact that not one of his opponents are endorsing him

He has people like you, but he did nothing to get any of the contingency that he needs to make himself competitive.

Loretta said...

"But I started to think abut the implications of as a first thing is to get a special prosecutor to investigate his opponent. That's third world or as Indy said, it was like Stalin. "She should be in jail"."

Nonsense.

Myballs said...

Roger said that because cnn said that. parrot.

Two full debates now with no questions about immigration or clinton foundation. How is that possible?

I'm ok with Trump using bill to shove Hillary's hypocrisy back into her face. She went into the gossip swamp first. He had to one up her in response.

Commonsense said...

Did you really expect Roger to have an original thought?

Didn't watch the debate last night but judging from the angst of liberal pundits, Trump won big.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Better do some more reading.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Before the debate, the GOP was STUCK WITH TRUMP
and many were hoping he or Hillary would do him in and they could abandon him.

That didn't happen. Now the GOP is still STUCK WITH TRUMP.

You're getting what you so richly have earned.

Commonsense said...

I;m hearing the truculent sore-lose response from the pastor who was DEVASTATED by last night's debate performance.

Commonsense said...

Trump went nuclear and Clinton was blown away by the shock wave.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

READ THIS QUICKLY before Ch, who claims to believe in free speech, but really doesn't, DELETES it (Censors it!)----

"...the "lock her up" line ... gets so much applause at Trump's rallies. Locking up your political opponents is a well-established practice—in banana republics. It often foreshadows an end to democracy. Although we have had heated political campaigns before, no candidate of either party has ever crossed this line, until now."
--Andrew S. Tannenbaum

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I was indeed at first disappointed by the debate, but am finding more and more to enjoy about it. :-)

You guys are really stuck with him.

Commonsense said...

Locking up your political opponents is a well-established practice—in banana republics.

Speaking of which Obama's IRS is still going after conservative groups.

Where does that fall in your banana republic scenario?

How about protecting your political allies from criminal prosecution?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Do yourselves a favor and stay away from politicalwire.com.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

It's also a Hitler tactic.

Commonsense said...

Tannenbaum is such an idiot that any post quoting him should automatically be marked as spam.

Commonsense said...

Bringing up Hitler means you lose the argument.

(Godwin's law)

Commonsense said...

Prediction: Clinton gets a pardon if she loses.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Prediction: She'll also get a pardon if the cow jumps over the moon.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Repeat after me:
"We really are stuck with him."
___________
And try to ignore that sinking feeling in your stomachs.

Anonymous said...

Locking up your political opponents is a well-established practice—in banana republics.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

that reminds me...

did they ever let the benghazi videographer Nakoula Basseley Nakoula out of jail? you know... the guy who supposedly caused the riots?

that was real banana republic stuff.





Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I didn't watch CNN.

Sorry folks, I can make my own mind up. I was discussing it with my wife. She saw the throw her in jail, as a third world, dictatorship would do. She participated in street demonstrations against the government of Panama. That was a high risk action.

His "She should be in jail", is a dictatorship tactic. I was thinking along that line, she reinforced it by her experiences.

Unlike you folks who believe that Breitbart as unbiased information, I looked at it for what it was. Stalinist.

Myballs said...

How is that dictator tactics? Many have gone to prison for less.

Tens of millions of Americans agree.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The second presidential debate on Sunday night was a strange one, with Donald Trump appearing to be on the brink of a meltdown in the first 20 to 30 minutes and then steadying himself the rest of the way. But here’s the bottom line: Based on post-debate polls, Hillary Clinton probably ended the night in a better place than she started it. And almost without question, she ended the weekend — counting the debate, the revelation on Friday of a 2005 tape in which Trump was recorded appearing to condone unwanted sexual contact against women, and the Republican reaction to the tape — in an improved position.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/

He didn't do anything that will expand his base. He made you happy. It won't expand his base. He will lose the ECV by almost 200 votes.

Will it get him Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and more?

Not one bit. Devastation is 29 days away.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

For one party's duly nominated candidate to state that he/she would imprison the other party's duly nominated candidate (without trial?) has apparently never been said before in an American election.

And probably will never again be said.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Millions of Republicans don't believe in evolution. What's your point castrated one?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

If Clinton had stated that she would get a special prosecutor to look into his alleged pussy gabbing sexual assault?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Will Trump Campaign Now Go After GOP Defectors?

After last night’s debate, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway suggested that some of the male members of Congress who are not supporting Donald Trump have sexually harassed women, according to CBS News.
___________

OH boy.

C.H. Truth said...

Donald Trump offered that if he was President that he would appoint a special prosecutor to reopen the Clinton investigation...

If the left truly believes that Clinton did nothing wrong... then why would they be concerned about her going to jail?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Because he didn't stop by saying he would reopen the investigation, he stated how it would come out.*

Dictators do that, you know.
__________

*which could also be read, "how he would make it come out. Dictators etc..."

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

How third world CH.

Anonymous said...


LOL.

the drama queen talking points have been distributed.

third world, stalinist, trotskyist, fascist, dictator-ist, etc.

geezus. real fainting couch stuff. and all coming from trolls who cheered on the weaponization of the IRS against conservatives.

ironically, it's more like Alinsky-ist. straight out of 'rules for radicals.' i guess the left hates a taste of their own medicine.

C.H. Truth said...

Sure guys...

Independent prosecutors are so third world.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

***the drama queen talking points have been distributed.***

Strange. I didn't get mine.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

In democracies independent prosecutors are not appointed to do what the appointer tells them them to do.

Anonymous said...


Independent prosecutors are so third world.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

they are except when it's "merry fitzmastime!" and there's some turd blossom frog marchin' to be done.

what's that old line about hypocrisy and liberalism?



Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I think a special prosecutor to investigate un solicited pussy grabbing, aka Sexual assault.

Anonymous said...

Roger Amick said...
I think a special prosecutor to investigate un solicited pussy grabbing, aka Sexual assault.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

sure thing!

and then let's investigate an actual, brutal, "ya better put some ice on that" RAPE. You know. one that actually happened, and according to the queen of the cankles the accuser is to be believed.

yes.

let's go there.

quickly.

while the stench of hypocrisy still fills the air.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

There is no way to sugarcoat this: At Sunday night’s presidential debate, Donald Trump threatened to throw Hillary Clinton in jail if he wins the presidency. This — threatening to jail one’s political opponents — is how democratic norms die.

The exchange happened during a discussion of the controversy over Hillary Clinton’s private email server. Trump began by decrying Clinton’s conduct — which, according to the FBI, was quite bad but not illegal. He then proposed appointing a special prosecutor to investigate her, and warned Clinton that, if he were president now, “you’d be in jail”:

TRUMP: I'll tell you what. I didn't think I'd say this, and I'm going to say it, and hate to say it: If I win, I'm going to instruct the attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation because there's never been so many lies, so much deception … A very expensive process, so we're going to get a special prosecutor because people have been, their lives have been destroyed for doing one-fifth of what you've done. And it's a disgrace, and honestly, you ought to be ashamed.

CLINTON: Let me just talk about emails, because everything he just said is absolutely false. But I'm not surprised … It's just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law of our country.

DT: Because you'd be in jail.
This is so far beyond normal that it’s hard to even know where to start.


In democracies, we respect people’s rights to disagree with each other. When one candidate wins a presidential election, the loser returns to private life or another government position. In some cases, former rivals become close friends. George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, who defeated Bush in the 1992 election, travel together and have spent decades jointly raising money to aid the victims of natural disasters.

They don’t get sent to jail, because we believe that political disagreement should be legal.

Donald Trump doesn’t seem to care about all that.

In his last line — “you’d be in jail” — he is outright saying that he would imprison Hillary Clinton in office (if he could). This comes despite the fact that there is no evidence Clinton committed a crime in her handling of the email servers, despite lengthy investigations that found evidence of carelessness and dishonesty. That would be a politically motivated prosecution — retribution for daring to run against Trump and attack him during the campaign.


This is everything we feared about Donald Trump. His long history of trying to silence critics with lawsuits, his inability to let personal slights go, his pettiness: The nightmare scenario is that these would incline him to use the power of the presidency to forcibly silence his critics and opponents. That’s what is done by tin-pot dictators spanning the globe from North Korea to Zimbabwe. That’s what happens in countries where peaceful transitions of power are the exception, not the rule.

Donald Trump just threatened to bring that to America.

wphamilton said...

It was exactly the line that Trump needed to deliver. First to affirm the opinion of most Americans, that Clinton got a pass from the FBI and second that he intends to do something about it. It doesn't matter that any of us, or political pundits or Democratic operatives would deride that as third world or tyrannical - what matters is how many disenfranchised voters decide to show up just on the off chance that he'll follow through. Trump really has only two things going for him: he's not Clinton, and he's a huge middle finger in the face of Washington. Once again, to BOTH parties.

This is not an endorsement of Trump's antics or policy positions. I don't know that I agree with any of his platform. But this was good politics and it will help him in the end. The DNC has made a huge mistake in forcing the nomination of this corrupt, flawed candidate and Trump is just exploiting that.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

http://www.vox.com/2016/10/10/13223890/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-jail?utm_campaign=vox.social&utm_medium=social&utm_content=voxdotcom&utm_source=facebook

Anonymous said...

Donald Trump just threatened to bring that to America.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

fainting...

pearl clutching...

OH, THE HUMANITY!!!

LOL.

oh, and for those who were wondering, rog is cutting and pasting (TWICE!) some blather from lil ezzie's juice box mafia.

http://www.vox.com/2016/10/9/13222302/donald-trump-jail-hillary-clinton-second-debate



C.H. Truth said...

That's the post debate spin by the left...

That Trump went over the line by offering that instead of a politically controlled FBI investigation that nearly nobody in America trusted was impartial or fair...

that we should appoint an independent investigator to reopen the issue without the constraints of an overreaching Democratic President and the partisan A.G.

Yeah... good one.

Loretta said...

"oh, and for those who were wondering, rog is cutting and pasting (TWICE!) some blather from lil ezzie's juice box mafia."

In other words.....spam.

Loretta said...

"DNC has made a huge mistake in forcing the nomination of this corrupt, flawed candidate and Trump is just exploiting that."

Exactly.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The RNC has made a huge mistake in allowing the nomination of this corrupt, flawed candidate and the Democrats are just exploiting that.

Donald the Grabber will never be President.

Anonymous said...



"They don’t get sent to jail, because we believe that political disagreement should be legal."

it's statements like this that prevent me from ever taking anyone on the left seriously.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

It must be a real consolation to Donald the Grabber that he still gets support from racists like Rat.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Exactly.

wphamilton said...

The RNC has made a huge mistake in allowing the nomination of this corrupt, flawed candidate

No, corrupt I'm not so sure. I have written here several times that the Republicans nominated the only guy that Hillary might beat. Bigoted, ignorant, no integrity in evidence. But Trump corrupt, I haven't seen it. That's a big difference in my book, and at least the Republicans stupidity came about honestly - they reaped as they sowed. The Democrat's stupidity arose from corruption, and I don't care who it is or how bad the opponent is a democratic republic cannot tolerate the assent to power through corruption. We will survive a blowhard in office, but a criminal gaining power through corruption may damage our nation, permanently.

Commonsense said...

There is no way to sugarcoat this: At Sunday night’s presidential debate, Donald Trump threatened to throw Hillary Clinton in jail if he wins the presidency. This — threatening to jail one’s political opponents — is how democratic norms die.

Imagine, the rule of law is now killing democratic norms.

Do you actually believe this nonsense?
Are you that idiotic?