Obviously too early to say one way or the other... but the Morning Consult poll (on the subject of Donald Trump's audio tape) did not quite show the fallout that one might expect. In fact, it appears that Trump's support went slightly up from the previous Morning Consult poll. Granted, one is a Registered voter sample, while the other is likely voter... but that's splitting hairs. In fact, Trump has generally done slightly "better" in likely voter polls .
Neither of the two daily tracking polls that show numbers "since" the tape release are showing any movement at all. In fact, both have been stuck at the same number for a couple of days. That being said, those polls are tracking (in that they replace the oldest date's numbers with the most recent). So this would not be conclusive.
It didn't help the Clinton camp that there were some fairly serious wikileak emails leaked showing more possible legal problems as it pertains to the Clinton Foundation and State Department. As well as some revelations that show her relationship with Wall Street is much cozier than Hillary suggests in public talks (obvious at this point why she wouldn't release these transcripts).
Tonight's debate will "start off" with a question to Hillary about the audio tape. Go figure. That being said, it's better for Trump to get that issue out of the way as soon as possible, in order to move forward with other issues. Perhaps the debate will matter all the more, in the wake of both the Trump audio and Clinton wiki-leaks issues.
25 comments:
My prediction: YES
Mine too.
Yes he will
Will it drastically drastically increase his polling numbers, probably not. The Wiki Leaks, from what I've seen, don't have any bombshells.
Silver has Clinton at 81.3% advantage.
A twenty year old story, won't make a damn bit a damn bit of difference..
"It didn't help the Clinton camp that there were some fairly serious wikileak emails leaked showing more possible legal problems as it pertains to the Clinton Foundation and State Department. As well as some revelations that show her relationship with Wall Street is much cozier than Hillary suggests in public talks (obvious at this point why she wouldn't release these transcripts)."
It will never hurt her.
The media doesn't cover it, so it doesn't exist.
So, yes.
There is much I agree with and much food for thought for those who don't.
How Trump’s detractors may have sabotaged their own October Surprise
There are three factors which may support this idea that I’d like to cover.
First. Voters want to be informed but they are frequently tuned off by the perception of dirty tricks.
It doesn’t take a genius in political history to suspect that something smells funny with the timing of the release of this story.
Second. Timing is everything and the gun went off in Act I
There seems to be universal agreement among cable news spokesmodels that this is the beginning of the end. The video was The Worst Thing Ever and is surely the death of the campaign, but There Is More To Come. It’s all downhill from here.
But is it? I’ve no doubt there’s plenty more waiting to be sprung from the vaults by Hillary Clinton’s supporters. Access Hollywood and other sources are likely sitting on miles of tape, waiting to drop bombs at what they deem auspicious times to keep the conversation away from Hillary Clinton’s many debacles and Wikileaks revelations. But how much worse can the rest of them be?
Unless they’ve actually got The Donald on camera confessing to a triple homicide it’s tough to imagine the rest of the treasure trove being anything other than more variations of what we’ve just seen.
Third. You’ve set up Trump for the debate to the point where he’d almost have to try to fail to meet expectations
At this point, how much worse can it get? There is no doubt a “town hall participant” queued up to ask about the tape, assuming the format doesn’t allow for Anderson Cooper or his partner to do the deed themselves. Everyone knows the question already so there’s no gotcha factor. The only mystery is how he’ll answer. Will he go after Bill? That’s the expectation. If he does, he’s deemed to be taking cheap shots, but that’s what was predicted. But what if he doesn’t? What if, rather than going after Bill’s sexual escapades, he just says that it was a different time, that’s not how he sees women and he’s apologized. From there he launches into the recent email revelations about Hillary.
If he does that the conversation about the Billy Bush tape is pretty much done. If Hillary tries to keep bringing it up she comes off as a bitter scold. If the moderators keep banging away on it after Trump acknowledges it and moves on, they poison their own performance by looking like they’re in the tank for Hillary.
I like the phrase "looking like they are in the tank for Hillary", they are.
How Trump’s detractors may have sabotaged their own October Surprise
That's a source only trump supporters can love. LOL
Like most Clinton supporters, you suffer from shallow thinking.
You left off the final sentence of the article.
"Anderson Cooper would be left with little choice other than to abandon this shiny plaything and hit some policy topics."
Oh now, that could REALLY put the last nails in Trump's coffin.
___________
ALSO You seem to forget that half of the questions are supposed to come from submissions made by ordinary people.
http://heavy.com/news/2016/09/second-presidential-debate-how-to-submit-your-questions-for-trump-and-clinton/
Spit
Spam
I can't resist.
Florida 45.1 42.7 Clinton +2.4
Ohio 44.0 43.5 Clinton +0.5Trending Up
Pennsylvania 47.8 39.2 Clinton +8.6Trending Up
New Hampshire 44.3 38.3 Clinton +6.0
North Carolina 45.0 42.4 Clinton +2.6
Iowa 38.0 41.7 Trump +3.7Trending Down
Nevada 43.2 41.8 Clinton +1.4
Wisconsin 45.3 39.0 Clinton +6.3Trending Up
Minnesota 44.3 40.0 Clinton +4.3
Michigan 44.3 37.3 Clinton +7.0
Colorado 44.3 37.0 Clinton +7.3Trending Up
Virginia 44.0 37.0 Clinton +7.0
Maine 40.8 37.0 Clinton +3.8
Arizona 41.0 42.0 Trump +1.0
None of these were post pussy stories. The instant polls that I don't trust all most all show Clinton pulling away.
Our esteemed host used Sean Trende for a reason to say I have am not competent to make such a statement.
The House May Be in Play
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By Sean Trende
October 08, 2016
On Friday, a bombshell dropped on Donald Trump, as an audio recording from 2005 featured him bragging about trying to sleep with married women and explaining that he would go up to women and “just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p----. You can do anything.”
On the one hand, this isn’t all that different from unseemly statements made by Trump before. On the other hand, the context is different because (a) it’s Trump’s voice that is heard, rather than statements read on paper and (b) we’re now just a month out from the election, with early voting underway.
Idiot
WELCOME TO PU**Y-GATE!!!
Apparently a considerable amount more of such Trumpisms are
available, to be released as someone or anyone sees fit.
I relly don't think SAVAGE-etta should be calling Sean an idiot.
I've been resisting all day. I thought about tweeting Donald Trump and ask him is it's o.k. if I can grab his hot daughter's pussy.
Sean Trende is an idiot?
He used to post on the blog.
Twit.
Don't worry Roger I'm sure Anderson Cooper will ask him just that.
"Anderson Cooper would be left with little choice other than to abandon this shiny plaything and hit some policy topics."
Oh now, that could REALLY put the last nails in Trump's coffin.
I hope he does then Hillary Clinton will have to explain her vision for a borderless western hemisphere.
Like what the Europeans have in the EU.
And how could she square the vision with her oath to preserve, protect, and defend the constitution.
I think the only one calling Sean an idiot is James.
However Roger certainly qualifies after being suckered by James.
Serves him right for not reading the thread before spouting off.
5:46 follows 5:30.
Is it just me, or havd we seen sex weaved throughout our society, be it music, movies and literature. I mentioned earlier about how eighty million people bought 50 shades of gray.
And that doesn't even soeak to the actual sexual assaults of bill cosby and bill Clinton. Trump voters see this as a big load of bullshit designed to divert CV attention away from actual issues affecting the country.
I didn't, troll.
He has your number.....
No kidding, drunkard.
"Trump voters see this as a big load of bullshit designed to divert CV attention away from actual issues affecting the country."
__________
How do all those Republicans who are jumping ship see it?
CS: Second. Timing is everything and the gun went off in Act I
CommonSense This is a significant point. When you have a real bombshell you hold it until the last moment, when there's not enough time to absorb the hit and counter or discredit it. Like the Bush cocaine allegation that worked so well in the last week of that election.
It was my first question: why now? I think it was because the Clinton campaign felt that they had to, because Trump was dragging the old skeletons out of the closet. It was a preemptive attack to take the edge off of it.
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