Monday, November 7, 2016

Early Voting Shocker?

Purple State Memo: Republicans hold lead in Colorado early voting entering Election Day (Denver Post)
Republicans took the lead in early voting in Colorado at the end of the day Friday and held the advantage through the weekend despite robust Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts.
The latest early voting numbers released Monday morning show registered Republicans cast 652,380 ballots compared to 645,020 registered Democrats — a 7,360 vote advantage. The breakdown looks like this: 35.2 percent Republican, 34.8 percent Democrat and 28.5 percent unaffiliated.
By comparison, the Democrats held a five point overall lead in Colorado Demographics in 2012 at the end of voting, and Obama won by five percent. So this would seem significant as a change, and quite possibly suggest that Colorado is close, if not in a dead heat.

Colorado is a mail in ballot election state and it appears that what is recorded so far will make up around 75% of the overall vote.  If Republicans win the same day voting totals in Colorado (which they generally do nationally) - we could be looking at major upset in Colorado.

69 comments:

opie said...

Wow seems to me to be an insignificant number considering how many R's are not supporting trump. LOL

Myballs said...

The media narrative is falling apart. Trump looking very strong.

No wonder Hillary cancelled her victory fireworks.

C.H. Truth said...

Wow seems to me to be an insignificant number considering how many R's are not supporting trump

Average of twenty polls suggests differently. Both candidate steal six percent from the other, and four percent of Democrats and five percent of Republicans are going third Party. More to the point, those 20 polls show Trump winning Independents by eight to nine points.

But you prefaces this by saying "seems to me" - which is akin to saying some totally random and expecting there to be logic behind it.

opie said...

Trump looking very strong.

Especially one with such small, soft hands.....>LOL

opie said...

Average of twenty polls suggests differently

Blah, blah, blah.,.. I suggest your analysis is once again flawed

The last 5 polls have her up by 2.9 and the last poll up by 5. I'm again sure that with your statistical prowess, your BS is superior than mine. LOL Nice try CH, you support the bigot of the east. Good for you.

C.H. Truth said...

There have been twelve polls released today Opie... not five. And they are anywhere from Clinton +6 to Trump +5

There are also a slew of state polling, much of it looks good for Trump, while some of it looks better for Clinton. Overall, I would say it's been better for Trump than Clinton.

In both the state and national polling, most of the results are an "improvement" for Trump, not Clinton. Monmouth for instance looks like a big number for Clinton (plus six) until you consider that she was up twelve just ten days ago in the same Monmouth poll.

I would offer that early voting numbers in Florida, North Carolina, (and now Colorado) look pretty good for a guy who supposedly had no ground game. Must just be outright enthusiasm, huh? Apparently they didn't need anyone to knock their door or call them to get out and vote early.

Loretta said...

Not your average election, that's for sure.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Scott Gottlieb of the American Enterprise Institute has a piece at Forbes today titled, “A Personal Tale Of ObamaCare Woe: One Patient’s Story.” Gottlieb tells the story of “John” (not his real name) who went from getting a pretty good deal under Obamacare to having to take out a 2nd mortgage to cover a plan with a high deductible:

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/07/taking-2nd-mortgage-cover-cost-obamacare-plan/



i think that many are completely mis-underestimating the impact of 0linsky-care on this election.


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
caliphate4vr said...

i think that many are completely mis-underestimating the impact of 0linsky-care on this election.

The middle class is getting hammered, as I predicted. Recall, I said this was the greatest transference of wealth from the middle class to the moocher class, in history

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Swing and blue states HB Projections
New Hampshire: Clinton
Pennsylvania: Clinton
Ohio: Trump. barely. Could move to Clinton if Cleveland goes hard Clinton
Nevada: Clinton
North Carolina: Clinton?
Florida: Clinton
Minnesota: Clinton
Michigan: Clinton
Wisconsin: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton
Georgia: Clinton: Barely but ..

All based on facts and experience.

Comey letter has minimal but sufficient to move one or two percent in those voting tomorrow.

Clinton has Obama, Gore, Bernie, Bill Clinton, Biden. Outstanding field offices in critical states like Pennsylvania. Trump: .........
Trump has ... Trump

Neither the speaker of the house, or majority leader will appear at his events. Trump gets.. Giuliani. Who forgot who was mayor of New York on 9/11

The devastation will be confirmed by 10: 45 PM EST.

Anonymous said...



All based on facts and experience.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

both of which are not worth a bucket of warm spit.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Worth a lot more than your "let's shoot the beaners at the border and leave the bodies to rot" opinion.

Commonsense said...

I given up on Roger being a serious analysis. His last polls roundup proves he's just a hack.

KD, Oh oh said...

Hillary Clinton will NOT light up the sky over NYC if she wins the Presidency -- her campaign is calling off a planned fireworks show ... TMZ has learned.

The Clinton campaign had contacted the Coast Guard for permission to pull off a 2 minute long fireworks display over the Hudson River when the election results went final. The fireworks would be visible from the Jacob Javits Center, where she's holding her election night party.

But the Coast Guard tells TMZ ... Clinton's camp reached out on Thursday -- 2 days after her fireworks plan was uncovered -- to say it wouldn't be shooting off the 10" aerial shells, after all.

The Coast Guard says the campaign offered no explanation for the about-face. We've reached out to the Clinton campaign ... no word back yet."

HB DID YOU SEE TODAY"S WALL STREET TRUMP RALLY IN STOCKS?


Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Taegan Goddard is no hack, and he says these are the
"Final National Polls":

Bloomberg: Clinton 44%, Trump 41%, Johnson 4%, Stein 2%

CBS News: Clinton 45%, Trump 41%, Johnson 5%, Stein 2%

Washington Post/ABC News: Clinton 47%, Trump 43%, Johnson 4%, Stein 2%

NBC News/SurveyMonkey: Clinton 47%, Trump 41%, Johnson 6%, Stein 3%

Fox News: Clinton 48%, Trump 44%, Johnson 3%, Stein 2%

Monmouth: Clinton 50%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4%, Stein 1%

Economist/YouGov: Clinton 45%, Trump 41%, Johnson 5%, Stein 2%

KD, Cali YOU FREEKING ROCK said...

Anonymous caliphate4vr said...
i think that many are completely mis-underestimating the impact of 0linsky-care on this election.

The middle class is getting hammered, as I predicted. Recall, I said this was the greatest transference of wealth from the middle class to the moocher class, in history'

Spot on as always on your analysis.

Everyone knows that Hillary the Grandmother of it and Obama, his sheep own it,,,, completely, this damage is deep in the pocket books and purses of every working middle income earner.

Loretta said...

"given up on Roger being a serious analysis. His last polls roundup proves he's just a hack."

There's something wrong with him.

Loretta said...

Plagiarized spam, dickhead.

KD, RIP HB said...

All based on facts and experience." LOL @ HB every day

HB you will really be missed.


Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The stock market rallied on news like this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_betting_odds.html

KD, said...

The Market Rallied on a Trump Win.


KD, Wall Street Rally on TRUMP said...

There's something wrong with him. " Ette

During the BUSH SOARS board, he used to brag about how his alcohol tab in a year was more the most people earn in a year.

The body is not design to be repeatedly poisoned like that and not cause real damage.

HB told us of the many illnesses he has had related directly to his drinking.

Now he wants all of us to either pay for it with new parts for his body or for us to feel sorry for his failure as a head of house hold, he said his live time of work was not worth $162,ooo as a bill in that amount in his own words, would bankrupt him, sad really.


Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Don't anybody tell KD this. His heart may not be able to take it:

Headline:
US stock futures surge after Clinton cleared by FBI

Myballs said...

Trump is showing very strong all over. So much so that Obama is in MI again to spread more of his lies.

Even MI and MN are in play for him.

KD said...

I told the Three Liberal Stooges that MI was TIED, HB died on the news.

RIP HB, you are such a loser no one will miss you.


I wonder Jane, how much you have in savings, we know your old tied RIP HB had less then $162,000.

Jane is your 403b savings, is it north of $1.2 million?
Jane, you never paid into Social Security being that you were a member of the clergy and exempt.

wphamilton said...

"US stock futures surge after Clinton cleared by FBI"

Or it could be the usual technical correction after an over-exuberant sell-off.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium gives Hillary a mere 99% chance of winning, and says this is not too optimistic:

http://election.princeton.edu/faq/#metamargin

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Not A Shocker

Republicans in North Carolina Cheer African American vote suppression.

North Carolina has been the epicenter of voter suppression efforts during the 2016 campaign, and the North Carolina Republican Party is now celebrating the stats showing those efforts worked.

The party sent a press release to reporters on Sunday trumpeting the fact that fewer black voters cast early ballots this year than they did in 2012. "African American Early Voting is down 8.5% from this time in 2012," the release read. "As a share of Early Voters, African Americans are down 6.0%." The statement also cheered the rise in white voters as compared with 2012. "The once dynamic Obama Coalition [is] crumbling and tired," said Robin Hayes, the North Carolina GOP chairman, adding that the party's "motivated statewide volunteers and extensive ground game" are the reason for the good news.

There's probably another reason: The decline in early voting among black voters is likely a result of yearslong efforts by North Carolina's Republican officials and political operatives to impose voting restrictions in the state. Emails obtained last week by Reuters showed that Republican officials pushed successfully to restrict early voting sites and cut down on early voting on Sundays, when many black churches hold "Souls to the Polls" mass voting drives. During a major voting rights lawsuit decided in July, the 4th Circuit Courts of Appeals noted that the state eliminated Sunday voting specifically because the voters who used it were "disproportionately" black and Democratic.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I've been censored. I mentioned that our esteemed host blocked my on FaceBook and it's gone. This will go away too.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Re Roger's 6:21 post:
That will contribute to "the fire next time."

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

James, the full story is on the legend.

Myballs said...

It's not suppression you jackass. Hillary is no Obama as far as they are concerned.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Bruce Springsteen in Philadelphia Pennsylvania, Freedom Square. At least 100,000 people who will vote for Clinton.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

OBAMA GALLUP APPROVAL

56% JOB APPROVAL up three from previous
vs
41% job disapproval down three from previous

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Bush was at 28% approval at this time in his presidency.

Public Radio just announced that stock markets around the world are rallying at the news that Clinton will not be facing charges because of the latest email fiasco.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Obama approval 52.1%.

Reagan 10/24/88: 51%

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

By Nate Silver

First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percent from 2.9 percent.

We’ll continue to collect polls through early Tuesday morning, at which point we’ll update the model for the last time and publish a more philosophical overview on the race. But I’m not sure how much more data we’re really expecting — most of it will probably just be state and national tracking polls that run one last update.

As a lot of you noticed, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. We don’t think that’s a particularly meaningful metric, because the forecasts are probabilistic — Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 54 percent from 48 percent, for instance, which is nontrivial but not an especially large change. Still, we know it’s something a lot of readers follow. It’s unlikely that any further states will flip to Clinton in our final forecast, as she’s too far behind in Ohio, the next-closest state. It’s possible that Florida and North Carolina could flip back to Trump by tomorrow morning, though probably not Nevada, where Clinton’s lead is a bit larger.

Mostly, though, the number I have on my mind today is “4.” That’s because it kept coming up over and over as national polls were released today: It seemed like every pollster had Clinton leading by 4 percentage points. Here’s data from national polls that were conducted beginning on Oct. 28 or later:
DATES POLLSTER TYPE GRADE MARGIN
Nov. 3-6 Monmouth University Live telephone A+ Clinton +6
Nov. 4-6 Selzer & Company Live telephone A+ Clinton +3
Nov. 3-6 ABC/Washington Post Live telephone A+ Clinton +4
Nov. 1-3 Marist College Live telephone A Clinton +1
Nov. 3-6 Fox News Live telephone A Clinton +4
Nov. 3-5 NBC/WSJ Live telephone A- Clinton +4
Oct. 31-Nov. 4 Ipsos Online A- Clinton +4
Nov. 1-4 Angus Reid Online A- Clinton +4
Nov. 3-6 IBD/TIPP Live telephone A- Trump +2
Nov. 2-6 CBS News Live telephone A- Clinton +4
Nov. 1-5 RKM Research Live telephone B+ Clinton +3
Nov. 4-7 YouGov Online B Clinton +4
Nov. 1-2 Gravis Marketing Automated/online B- Clinton +2
Oct. 31 – Nov. 6 CVOTER International Online C+ Clinton +3
Nov. 2-6 Rasmussen Reports Automated/online C+ Clinton +2
Oct. 31 – Nov. 6 SurveyMonkey Online C- Clinton +6
Nov. 4-5 Morning Consult Online — Clinton +3
Nov. 5-7 The Times-Picayune/Lucid Online — Clinton +5
Oct. 31 – Nov. 6 USC Dornsife/LA Times Online — Trump +5
Recent national polls show a 2- to 3-point Clinton lead, on average

Polls conducted beginning Oct. 28 or later.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Seven of the 19 polls have Clinton leading by 4 points; another four have her ahead by 3 points, then we have a smattering of 1’s, 2’s and 6’s — along with two pollsters, IBD/TIPP and Los Angeles/USC Dornsife, who still have Trump ahead. (We admire the L.A. Times poll for not changing its methodology in midstream, even though the poll has its issues.) On average, Clinton leads by 2.9 points in the polls, although the highest-rated pollsters have her a bit higher at 3.8 points, on average. As is usually the case, the range of national polls closely matches the FiveThirtyEight popular-vote forecast.

It’s worth raising an eyebrow, though, when the polls (other than the L.A. Times) show a range this tight at the end of an election, especially given that they’d diverged so much earlier in the campaign. That probably reflects some degree of herding — for instance, because pollsters stick surveys that seem to be outliers in a file drawer rather than publishing them. So the tight range of polls shouldn’t be taken to mean that everyone’s figured exactly how to poll this challenging election just in the nick of time. Still, the polls clearly agree that Clinton is the favorite, and perhaps has a slight wind at her back for Election Day.

Loretta said...

Spam.

Loretta said...

Plagiarized spam

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Still, the polls clearly agree that Clinton is the favorite, and perhaps has a slight wind at her back for Election Day.

The intellectually dishonest Silver who gets on television every day, vs our esteemed host who has blocked me on Face Book and never appears on television.

I report, you decide.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Are you really that stupid Loretta? I get a news letter daily from FiveThirtyEight, and that's what it is. He is a respected and intelligent analyst. I put his name on it, because it doesn't have a link.

I know the analysis is above your intellectual abilities, so you have to resort to spam and lies Where is the spit?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

by Reuters
Tuesday, 8 November 2016 rallies)

By Amanda Becker and Emily Stephenson

PHILADELPHIA/MANCHESTER, N.H., Pa., Nov 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential campaign neared its end on Monday in the same angry tone it began, with Republican Donald Trump calling Democrat Hillary Clinton a "phony" and Clinton accusing him of splitting the country, as a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll showed Clinton with a strong chance of winning.

Clinton and Trump raced through several battleground states in a last-ditch attempt to encourage their supporters to show up and vote on Tuesday.

Clinton sought to capture more support from Latinos, African-Americans and young people, while Trump looked to win over disaffected Democrats and rev up a middle class that he said has been sidelined by the political establishment.

The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project gave Clinton a 90 percent chance of defeating Trump, seeing her on track to win 303 Electoral College votes out of the 270 needed, to Trump's 235.

With surveys indicating a tight race in Michigan, which Democrats have long counted on winning, both candidates made campaign appearances there. Pennsylvania, another vote-rich state, was also seen as fertile ground by both camps in the closing hours of their campaigns.

Clinton held the biggest rally of her campaign in Philadelphia on Monday night, drawing a crowd that the city's Fire Department put at 33,000 to hear her and President Barack Obama, first lady Michelle Obama and rockers Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi.

"Tomorrow we face the test of our time," Clinton told supporters, saying they could decide what sort of country they wanted to live in. "We choose to believe in a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America."

Obama, who campaigned earlier in the day for Clinton in Ann Arbor, Michigan, reiterated his charge that Trump is "temperamentally unfit to be commander in chief," and said Clinton offered an experienced and accomplished alternative.

"You don't just have to vote against someone, you have someone extraordinary to vote for," Obama said. "She will work and she will deliver, she won't just tweet."

Trump told voters at an evening rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, they had one question facing them at the ballot box on Tuesday.

"Do you want America to be ruled by the corrupt political class or do you want America to be ruled again by the people?" he asked. "Tomorrow the American working class will strike back."

With only hours left before Election Day, the Clinton campaign was boosted by Sunday's unexpected announcement by FBI Director James Comey that the agency stood by its July decision not to press any criminal charges in an investigation of Clinton's email practices while she was secretary of state.

The latest opinion polls measuring popular support for each candidate showed Clinton narrowly ahead. She had a 5 percentage point lead over Trump nationally, with 44 percent to 39 percent support, according to latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

With the possibility I am wrong on Ohio, I'm going to be enjoying the coldheartedtruth devastation one more time, as she gets well over 300 ECV.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The Los Angeles Times projects more ECV than the HB Count. 352

Devastation.

(Los Angeles Times)

We've updated our electoral map for the final time in this topsy-turvy campaign year.

For this version, our goal was no toss-ups. We're giving you our best estimates, based on public polling, state vote histories and the reporting done by our campaign staff, on which way we think each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia will fall this year.



The previous version of the map had five toss-up states. In the end, we're predicting that three of them -- North Carolina, Ohio and Arizona -- will go for Hillary Clinton.



Iowa will go to Donald Trump, we expect. So will Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin has been threatening Trump, but seems likely to come up short.



Our projection would give Clinton 352 electoral votes, while Trump would end up with 186. That would put Clinton's electoral majority midway between President Obama's 2008 win and his 2012 reelection.



Of these last picks, Ohio and Arizona were the hardest. Polls have been close in both states.

Ohio does currently seem like a jump ball, but we lean toward Clinton winning there because of the strength of her get-out-the-vote operation.



In Arizona, we're expecting that the surge in Latino votes that has been visible next door in Nevada will put Clinton over the top. Polls that show Trump winning may be underestimating the size of the Latino turnout.



That's what we think, anyway. But the map allows you to test out your own hunches. Have at it.



http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html


Loretta said...

Maybe if you weren't such a dick.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I have a wide group of friends and relatives, who know that I'm a nice considerate and humorous man. You don't know shit. You worship Jimmy the racist. And all you have are insults because in all the time on this and Soars, you never actually comment with thought.

Loretta said...

BS.

Loretta said...

LOL

Mr Wonderful.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

A summary of the intelligent Loretta.
BS.
LOL
Mr Wonderful.

Your obsession with Trump is unexplainable. You like this.

Pope Francis ("disgraceful");

Sen. John McCain ("dummy");

Colin Powell ("weak");

Carly Fiorina ("look at that face");

Vice President Joe Biden ("not very bright");

House Speaker Paul Ryan ("very weak");

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ("her mind is shot");

Former Gov. Tom Ridge ("failed Bushie");

Mitt Romney ("choked like a dog");

Chancellor Angela Merkel ("ruining Germany").

If elected, Trump has also threatened to sic his attorney general on Hillary Clinton and go after Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post, because he thinks the paper's coverage of him has been unfair. Such threats undermine the rule of law, which is what separates the United States from banana republics.

A free press is in danger.

The rule of law would be replaced with the government outlawing criticism of Donald J Trump.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...

I have a wide group of friends and relatives
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

take away the face in the mirror and the voices in your head and you ain't got shit.

KD said...

What the Hell is wrong with HB?

Unknown said...

Swing and blue states robrien99 Projections
New Hampshire: Clinton barely
Pennsylvania: Clinton
Ohio: Trump.
Nevada: Clinton barely
North Carolina: Trump
Florida: Trump barely
Minnesota: Clinton
Michigan: Clinton
Wisconsin: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton
Georgia: Trump

Clinton wins but quite close. I hope I am wrong as I voted trump.

KD said...

Hillary staggering off her plane and into her car, helped by bill, wonderful footage of the old hag.

KD, Hillary's Wall to win said...

Just so you know what Success Looks like when a Socialist Like Obama/Hillary are Selected to ruin the US Economy.


Government Workers Outnumber Manufacturing by 9,977,000..." CNN


Well that is so nice, put more people doing nothing jobs and put ever more sitting on the couch until you need them to vote, then get them to vote for poverty and generational poverty and their you have it, a big Win for Hillary and her ilk and the end of a strong nation.

(CNSNews.com) - The United States lost 9,000 manufacturing jobs in October while gaining 19,000 jobs in government, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Government employment grew from 22,216,000 in September to 22,235,000 in October, according to BLS, while manufacturing jobs dropped from 12,267,000 to 12,258,000.

The 22,235,000 employed by government in the United States now outnumber the 12,258,000 employed in manufacturing by 9,977,000.

Over the past year—from October 2015 to October 2016—manufacturing employment fell by 53,000, declining from 12,311,000 to 12,258,000. During the same period, government employment climbed 208,000, rising from 22,027,000 to 22,235,000."

KD said...

As the world waits with bated breath for the results of Tuesday's contentious presidential election, its eyes turned briefly to three sleepy hamlets in rural New Hampshire, as their residents — fewer than 100 total — became the first in the nation to cast their ballots.

In Dixville Notch, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump 4-2. Libertarian Gary Johnson received one vote, and the 2012 Republican candidate, Mitt Romney received a surprise write-in ballot. In the slightly larger burg of Hart's Location, Clinton won with 17 votes to Trump's 14. Johnson got three of Hart's Location votes, while write-ins Bernie Sanders and John Kasich each got one vote. And in Millsfield, Trump won decisively, 16-4, with one write-in for Bernie Sanders.

So, in the three New Hampshire towns with midnight voting, Trump came out ahead 32-25"

Yes

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

PLAGIARIZED SPAM PREDICTION:

CLINTON WILL WIN

Our algorithm predicts that Hillary Clinton will get 288 electoral votes and be elected the 45th President of the United States. Donald Trump will come in second with 215 electoral votes. Florida and Nevada have had conflicting polls of late and the algorithm has them tied. Our own expectation is that Clinton will win both and end up with 323 electoral votes.

Why do we say this? Because there have been outliers in both states. Eight polls of Florida were at least partly in November, seven of them entirely in November. Clinton led in six of them and was tied in one. However, a new YouGov poll today has Trump up by 6 points, which is why Florida is a tie. We think this is just a statistical fluctuation, but unlike some other election prediction Websites, we are not going to monkey with the results.

Nevada is the same story. We have four polls with some data collection in November. Clinton won three of them, but an Opinion Research poll taken Oct. 27 to Nov. 01 gives Trump a 6-point lead. The most recent Nevada poll is by Emerson College, taken Nov. 4-5. Our rule is that all polls whose midpoint is within a week of the most recent poll are counted, and the Opinion Rsearch poll falls just within the window. But given the data on early voting and the fact that the last three polls in Nevada show Clinton ahead, we think she will take the Silver State and end with 323 electoral votes. This is just slightly less than Obama's haul of 332 in 2012, although the composition is different. He won Iowa and Ohio but lost North Carolina. This year it could be the other way around. (Tannenbaum at electoral-vote.com)
______________

Clinton Leads in Eight of Nine New National Polls

Nine new national polls were released yesterday. Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in eight of them [and] Clinton's average lead was 3.5%, about the same as yesterday, so it seems stable. If she indeed wins nationally by 3.5%, she is almost certain to win the Electoral College, as we are predicting as well. (Tannenbaum)
__________

Latino Vote Is Surging

While black voters may not turn out for Hillary Clinton in the same numbers as they did for Barack Obama, Latino voters are turning out in much larger numbers than they did in 2012, in no small part due to Donald Trump's calling Mexicans criminals, drug dealers, and rapists. How much this will affect the election depends to a large extent where the surge occurs. If the number of Latino voters doubles in California or Texas, it makes no difference at all, but if it goes up by 25% in Florida, that is huge.

Early voting data suggest that it has indeed increased by 25% in Florida. And it isn't just a matter of Latinos who normally vote on election day jumping the gun and voting early. Fully 36% of the Latinos who have voted early in Florida didn't vote at all in 2012. So Clinton is clearly pulling in large numbers of new voters.

This has major consequences for the polling. Every pollster has a model of the electorate and the sample is normalized to fit it. Very simply, if a pollster expects 16% of the electorate to be Latino and in the sample, only 14% are, then each Latino is weighted as 16/14 = 1.142. If the actual electorate contains 18% Latinos, then the poll will underweight them and the people they vote for (overwhelmingly Democrats), will do better than the polls predicted. On the other hand, Latinos voted very heavily for Obama in 2012, and aren't quite as enthusiastic about Clinton as they were for Obama.

The only states where Latinos could be decisive are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. There are few Latinos in states like Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Still, if Latinos push Clinton over the top in Florida, the show is over. There is no way Trump can lose Florida and still become president. (Tannenbaum)

KD , More Poor Blacks In the USA today said...

Jane a simple question for even a low IQ peddy like you can answer.


What is the policy, other then using middle income workers pay, does Hillary have that you support, please explain in your own words.


Trump will drop my families tax rate by 3 percent a year.

opie said...

C.H. Truth said...
There have been twelve polls released today Opie " Which is certainly different than the 20 you claimed. Idiot.

WOW!!!!! That's the best you got? When I made that post, that's what had been reported. Your amazing restatements of the obvious is the extent of your analytical skills. BTW.....the early voting in Floriduh is leagues ahead of the previous latino vote. I guess by you saying otherwise is another example of your lack of skills. Oh well, we should see soon on how your skills at predictions come out. Knowing you, you will again be 100% accurate. LOL

KD, 8 years Hope n change came to blacks they are Economically Poorer said...

According to federal data, the median wealth for white families in 2013 was around $141,900, compared to Hispanics at about $13,700 and blacks at about $11,000."

Where are you?

(Excluded HB and Jane we know they are morally bankrupt and mentally lacking, they have posted how financially broke and broken they are so no need to go over old ground)

Commonsense said...

I voted.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

NATE SILVER PREDICTS

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton
302.3
Donald Trump
234.9


Popular vote

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
45.0%

Myballs said...

I think Trump takes MI and that will put him over the top

C.H. Truth said...

When I made that post, that's what had been reported.

You made the post at nearly three o'clock in the afternoon.
The twelve polls were already on my sidebar.

So no, Opie... there had not just been five polls reported.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Voting for Donald Trump is like asking Stevie Wonder to drive. So says Stevie Wonder.

The music icon who is blind made the comparison during an interview with Philly.com after his Get Out The Vote concert for Hillary Clinton on Friday in Philadelphia.

“If you had an emergency situation and needed to go to the hospital, and you had to get there right away, would you want me driving your car?” he asked, to which the reporter replied “no.” He added, “Because I’m not an experienced driver, right?”

The 66-year-old then said Clinton’s track record alone makes her a better candidate.

“So my belief is that Hillary is an experienced person of the government, and she has spent 30 years with a commitment. Not to mention that her parents taught her in a kinder way, to have respect and love for all people. That’s the person I want to govern, to be the leader of this nation,” he said.

The 25-time Grammy award winner also slammed Trump for using his platform to make negative remarks about women, Muslims and Latinos. Wonder said that he would hate to have the “last years of my life in a place of pessimism” under a Trump presidency.

“This is not a reality show. This is life in reality,” he said. “So I’m with her because I believe in where we are, and where we are going to go. I have always believed that America is great. We’re just going to make it greater.”

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The last poll.

Monmouth University Live telephoneA+Clinton +6Nov. 4.
Last poll released showing Clinton up 6%.

opie said...

So no, Opie... there had not just been five polls reported.

I ignore your side bar CH since it includes polls that IMHO are Bullshit. No disrespect, but your 20 polls you claimed was bs many are dated. Again, all you do is restate the obvious, my source had 5 latest polls, so screw you CH with your righteous fake indignation. You have your opinion, I have mine and the way you are acting, t is no wonder why you support trump. LOL Keep praying, it is all you got.

Indy Voter said...

Good to hear from you! It's been a while since you stopped by.

Looks like we differ only in Nevada on our picks.