But this year... I have no clue.
- We have national polls anywhere from Trump +5 to Clinton +6
- Nate Silver has Trump winning Florida, but losing New Hampshire.
- RCP polling averages has Clinton winning Florida, but losing New Hampshire
- In Pennsylvania we have one poll showing Clinton leading by 11 and one poll showing it tied
- In New Hampshire we have Trump up five in one poll and Clinton up 10 in another.
That's just the polling and just the tip of the iceberg. We have conflicting reports on early voting. We have conflicted polling on voter enthusiasm. We have a new FBI investigation that it being talked to death in some circles and completely ignored in others. We have the NeverTrump crowd. We have a basket of deplorables. We may or may not have an increase in Hispanic voter, while we may or may not be seeing a large decline in millennial and black voter. By some accounts polling shows Trump is doing better with black voters than Romney, while one state poll showed him getting zero percent of the black vote.
Lastly we have Nate Silver, who shows Trump's chances of winning climbing past one in three (thirty five percent), while the Princeton Election Consortium shows Trump's chances at around one percent. I personally believe that Silver is being much more realistic given the most recent polling and how many states are "probabably" very close. But let's keep one statistic in mind. Nate Silver is 100% when it comes to predictions of Republicans winning. All of his errors have come projecting a Republican to lose. So if he has Trump winning a state, and Trump loses, it would be historical. The first time Silver projected a GOP candidate to win and then have him lose.
All that being said, it's very likely that I am not going to make any real predictions this election. I have no state spreadsheets, and I have not had the time to really get into the deep analysis that I once did. Moreover, from what I have looked at... there simply isn't a consistent pattern. In fact I would offer that there is by far the largest disparity between polling assumptions that I have ever seen, which appears to be leading us to such a wide range of polling "results".
What I can offer is that we will probably know based on some early exit polls how things are going to go. For the pollsters who are showing favorable numbers for Clinton, they are projecting a larger Democratic advantage for Clinton than Obama had over Romney (more than the six points)... and they are projecting a fairly significant reduced percentage of white voters (down from seventy two percent in 2012 into the upper sixties). Those pollsters showing more favorable numbers for Trump are seeing an election that would be more in line with what we saw in 2012. In fact, the LA Times poll is specifically a poll that uses the 2012 demographics as it's sample.
My best guess will remain on the sidebar. Right now my spreadsheet is projecting a Clinton popular vote victory somewhere between one and two percent. I don't suspect that will change dramatically before Tuesday. On the other hand, all my political instincts are telling me that I should expect it to be off (and possibly well off) one way or the other.
Generally I feel confident that I know how things will go. This year I am just confident that whatever I would project would likely be wrong.
41 comments:
There will probably be only three or four states where it really comes down to a gut call Monday night. Which four that is, I don't know yet (that is so 55 hours from now).
CH, IS THIS TRUE?
AND HOW IMPORTANT OR UNIMPORTANT IS IT?
_____________________________
Democrats May Have Just Put Away Nevada
Jon Ralston: “Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.”
“Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid’s Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.”
_______
David Wasserman says Nevada may be “a potential top-to-bottom Republican disaster.”
Here's the article referred to by Ralston:
Early Voting Kills Trump in Nevada
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
The magic 8-ball says "Reply hazy. Ask again Wednesday."
Here's the Wasserman tweet:
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/794906829180571648
Not to worry, James will spam you to death with the opinions of others.
Shut up, Loretta. I'm asking a serious question here.
Early voting is mainly important if the weather on Election Day is so bad it keeps people away from the polls.
So, are there any snowstorms forecasted? Tropical storms? I haven't seen anything in the news.
No you aren't, you're just spamming another thread.
Don't think the weather will be all that bad in Nevada.
Still the Democrat turnout in Clark County is impressive.
As is pointed out.... Early voting (by percentage) is actually down a little in Nevada for the Democrats. But they are arguing that it's the bulk numbers that count.
I agree with Indy in this case. Unlike Florida, where there is a 75,000 vote improvement for Trump over Romney, Clinton only has a 2000 vote difference from where Obama was. 75,000 difference suggests something. 2000 probably doesn't.
It's impressive only in that they pretty much matched what was done in 2012. But if they spent most of their time and energy to bring out their early voter, those voters are not available to vote again (at least on legally) on election day. It's possible that they simply got their most enthusiastic and organized voters out. Voters that would have voted anyways.
If the Trump turn out team was lagging in organizing them to turn out early, doesn't mean that his voters will not turn out to vote on election day.
The biggest difference from what I can tell is that Obama held a 6.7% polling lead over Romney in 2012. Trump holds a lead over Clinton in 2012.
I don't believe that difference goes away because Clinton is keeping par with Obama in early voting (especially since that should be expected due to Trump's lack of ground game).
CH, although your polling model predicts a Clinton win, my political instincts are that Trump has the advantage and perhaps a large one.
Even Nate Silver is starting to hedge when he said "Clinton's firewall may have been breached".
I notice that on Silver's "polls plus" forecast "snake" he has now given Obama both NH and NV but not NV on his other two "polls only" and "now cast"
snakes.
Is there a temporal disturbance in the force?
Can anyone explain to me why the RCP polling graph below (scroll down to it) shows Clinton above Trump, yet Nate Silver has Florida pink, not blue, and below 50% for Clinton?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
The world is a lesser place, today. My 101 year old paternal grandmother passed. She made the best fried apple pies, chicken, green beans and pone of cornbread. The sweetest, gentelest being that I've ever known
It is indeed, Cali. My sympathy for you family's loss.
Thanks Indy
Sorry to hear of the passing of one so loved.
Oh no Cali.
My sincere condolences.
Thanks
I'm a little more confident in my projections. Mine are based on the polls and the evidence that the Hispanic vote is going to compensate for the lack of support by the African American voters. Although Obama is loud and proud, "C'mon Man!" he's not going to make much of a difference.
As I said earlier, I think, and it's backed by history, that the few undecided and still wavering, will go for the most part with the less threatening candidate, Hillary Clinton.
Clinton
318
Trump
218
1 I'm giving Trump all the red states, plus New Hampshire.
2: Clinton will get North Carolina, Florida and Nevada because of the early voters, that in most reports are strongly Hispanic.
3: Another reason is that Clinton has 90% approval in the Democratic party.
Donald Trump is at 77% more or less a point.
4: The Senate: Either a Tie or a one vote majority for the Democrats. I'm not as sure on this.
5: The house will remain Republican, although with a smaller majority. But given the rules of the house are written by the majority, I'm not sure if they will work with Clinton or go into full blown impeachment stupidity.
6: If Ryan won't support he crazies, he may lose his job, but it's remote.
We shall see on Tuesday evening by 10:30 PM EST
Just to drive an unmentioned poster over he edge, this is for him.
Estoy un poco más confiado en mis proyecciones. Las minas se basan en las encuestas y la evidencia de que el voto hispano va a compensar la falta de apoyo de los votantes afroamericanos. Aunque Obama es fuerte y orgulloso, "C'mon Man!" Como dije antes, pienso, y está respaldado por la historia, que los pocos indecisos y aún vacilantes, irán en su mayor parte con la candidata menos amenazante, Hillary Clinton.
Clinton
318
Triunfo
218
1 Estoy dando a Trump todos los estados rojos, más New Hampshire.
2: Clinton recibirá Carolina del Norte, Florida y Nevada debido a los primeros votantes, que en la mayoría de los informes son fuertemente hispanos.
3: Otra razón es que Clinton tiene 90% de aprobación en el partido demócrata.
Donald Trump está en un 77% más o menos un punto.
4: El Senado: Una mayoría de votos o una mayoría de un voto para los demócratas. No estoy tan seguro de esto.
5: La casa seguirá siendo republicana, aunque con una mayoría menor. Pero dado que las reglas de la casa están escritas por la mayoría, no estoy seguro de si van a trabajar con Clinton o entrar en una estupidez de impeachment.
6: Si Ryan no apoya a los locos, puede perder su trabajo, pero es remoto.
We shall see on Tuesday evening by 10:30 PM EST
Paul, my deepest sympathy for your loss. I didn't see it till just now. I know it hurts. My best wishes to you and your family.
Friday marked the end of early voting in the battleground state of Nevada, and the final returns brought decidedly good news for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
Registered Democrats turned out in force in Nevada’s largest counties, providing Clinton a critical boost in a state where polling aggregates show the former secretary of state and GOP nominee Donald Trump within a few points of one another.
Over 57,000 votes were cast in populous Clark County, a single-day record that propelled Democrats to a statewide ballot edge on par with results at the same point in 2012, when President Barack Obama won Nevada by nearly 7 points.
Turnout was strong throughout the day, and election officials pledged to keep polling places open as long as there were voters in line. At 9pm, hundreds were still waiting to vote at a Mexican supermarket in Las Vegas.
“Looks like Trump got his wall after all. A wall of beautiful voters,” wrote Yvanna Cancela of the local Culinary Union, which has played a key role in Democrats’ get-out-the-vote operations this year. That union also represents the workers who recently voted to organize Trump International hotel on the Vegas strip.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nevada-early-vote_us_581d5e39e4b0e80b02ca43d0
ABC News/WaPo Tracking Poll Growing Bullish on Hillary Again
Shortly after James Comey's letter to the FBI, Donald Trump briefly took the lead in the ABC News/WaPo tracking poll. At the time, we noted that ABC's poll is often accurate one week out, but is even more accurate the day before the election. And if that holds, it's good news for Hillary Clinton, because she's trending upward and has taken the lead again. To be more precise, Clinton dipped below Donald Trump for one day—October 30, when he was at 46% and she at 45%. They were tied the next day at 46%, and then Clinton pulled ahead again. She's now up 47% to 43%, which is exactly where things stood a week before Comey's announcement. So, the effect of the new e-mails, assuming there ever was one, may be dissipating. (Bates)
Early Voting Continues to Presage Trouble for Trump
Assuming recent history holds, somewhere between 120
million and 130 million people will vote in this election. And roughly one-third of them—39,697,817, to be exact—have already cast their ballots. The analysts at TargetSmart have analyzed the available data (including interviews with those who have already voted), and they have some happy news for Hillary Clinton. Quite a bit of it in fact. Specifically:
Clinton appears to be leading Donald Trump among early voters by about 9 points, or roughly 4 million votes. For Trump to make up that difference, he would need 55% of the remaining votes.
55.9% of the voters so far are women. If women voters outnumber men by 10 points, that is ghastly news for Trump, and would make the "55% to catch up" all but impossible.
Trump has been counting on "low propensity" voters—those who don't turn out very often—to carry him to victory. While the number of low propensity voters is up this year, they are breaking for Clinton and not Trump, by about 7 points
The early voters are 80% white; the general population is about 63% white. If 30 million white voters have already cast their ballots (along with 10 million non-whites), that leaves about 50 million white voters to go, along with 35 million non-white voters. Supposing Hillary Clinton took 40% of the remaining white vote and 80% of the remaining non-white vote on Election Day (both very reasonable estimates), she would collect approximately 48 million of the remaining 85 million votes to Trump's 37 million. To even things out, and to possibly make up the existing 4 million gap, Trump would have to perform far, far better than expected among minority voters, or would have to take something like 85% of the remaining white votes. Either of those is a tall order.
Of course, these are all national numbers, and the presidency is decided on a state-by-state level. But bad news for Trump is starting to trickle in there, as well. Particularly in Nevada, where early voting came to an end on Friday night. Democrats have a 73,000-vote advantage in Clark County (home of Las Vegas), and a 45,000-vote advantage statewide. These figures mean the Democrats start Election Day with a six-point advantage. That is better than Barack Obama did in 2012's early voting, and he went on to win the state by seven points. Nevada's pre-eminent political analyst, Jon Ralston, asserts that Trump will need "a miracle" to win the Silver State and, beyond that, his failures could sink Republicans downballot as well, most obviously Senate candidate Rep. Joe Heck.
In the end, these early voting numbers could be predictive of what's going to happen on Election Day. Alternatively, they could prove to be Hillary Clinton's insurance policy against a Comey-inspired backlash. Either way, though, she still looks like the much better bet to claim the White House...(Bates, electoral-vote.com}
NOVEMBER 6 AT POLITICALWIRE.COM:
CLINTON CONTINUES TO EXPLAND NATIONAL LEAD
The ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally by five points, 48% to 43%.
Key finding: “Even though both candidates are remarkably unpopular, there’s more affirmative voting for Clinton than for Trump, a factor that can motivate turnout. A majority of her supporters mainly support her, rather than opposing Trump. That’s pretty much reversed for Trump: 51 percent of his backers mainly oppose Clinton, rather than supporting him.”
Condolences Cali. I know you and your family will miss her.
But take comfort that she lived a good long life.
saddened by the news, cali. may she go with God and rest in peace.
Hooker Hillary cough cough
She made the best fried apple pies, chicken, green beans and pone of cornbread. The sweetest, gentelest being that I've ever known " Cali
There was something about your grandmother that was instilled into all of your Grandmothers, I am sorry for you profound loss.
Thanks all
Sorry to hear that Paul.
Obama tell ILLEGALS "That when you vote you are a Citizen"
Really, well, there you have it, to be legal all the illegal has to do is vote, and instant Citizenry is bestowed upon one by the President of the USA.
Obama Assures the ILLEGAL Can VOTE
Another reason the polls are closing is because they want to be able to say they are accurate. They have to stop pushing Hillary as inevitable.
I've never called more than one state race incorrectly in a single year, and twice I got everything 100% correct.
BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!! And all the models are wrong, too. LOL
My sincere condolences, Cali.....BTW....I'm sure I would have enjoyed her fried apple dietetic pies you so enjoyed. :)
dietetic
Good one, Opie! ;-)
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