- Trump now leads or is tied in the four most recent New Hampshire polls
- Clinton ahead in six of the past ten Florida polls
- Trump within two in three of past four polls in Pennsylvania
- Trump Clinton tied in most recent Colorado poll
- Trump now ahead in Nevada and North Carolina (RCP average)
So, to some degree, Donald Trump has "broken through" the blue wall by taking a lead in New Hampshire. Unfortunately for Trump, he seems to have lost ground in Florida which would make New Hampshire (and other states) moot. That being said, Nate Silver still has Trump hanging on in Florida and the RCP flip from Trump to Clinton was actually based on the "removal" of good Trump polls from last week.
But the bottom line is that suddenly it would appear that several states may be "in play" down the stretch that otherwise were thought to be dead to Trump just a week or so ago. This means Clinton is now defending blue states, rather than attempting to expand into red states. At the very least, there isn't much talk anymore about a landslide, mandates, or coattails for Clinton. It's about whether she can hang on for dear life.
If I was Trump, I would accept a dog fight in Florida knowing that I am now leading in New Hampshire and competitive in Colorado, and Pennsylvania as well. Much better scenario that leading in Florida, but knowing you need one more state that appears out of reach.
Bottom line is that there are now several states that are so close that it really boils down to whether either candidate can over-perform the polls. It appears at this point that Clinton will probably need to maintain her two-four point polling lead nationally to win the Electoral college vote. On the flip side, it's fairly easy to see how a popular vote victory for Trump would likely secure an ECV win.
Right now there is a very real path for a Trump victory. That can no longer be denied.
29 comments:
The Final Surprise May Be a Boring Election Night
Read this quick before Ch deletes it.
Playbook: “Here’s one theory bouncing around the reporter and political campaign consultant world: Despite the recent tightening of the race, election night could be super boring. If Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is right — and he usually is — Hillary Clinton has all but won that state. If she takes Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia — all states where she seems to have a lead, or is building one through early voting — Donald Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire and still lose.”
________________
Also see my 7:15AM post in the thread below.
Clinton Campaign Sees Victory in 3 Key States
November 4 New York Times:
“Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.”
So according to this amazing pundit... a Hillary Clinton 270-268 election night win based on the (West Coast time) Nevada result would seem boring. Assuming she takes North Carolina
where Trump leads according to both 538 and RCP:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/#plus
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html
Yeah, Boring James...
Robby Mook is the same guy who stated last weekend on National Television that he didn't know if the Emails James Comey was talking about had anything to do with Huma Abedin. I would offer that he is just as credible today as he was last Sunday.
Where and WHY did Hillary Loss so much so fast, two weeks ago she was up by 12 points and spiking the ball.
James , where are those polls?
94,609,000 NOT IN LABOR FORCE"
Most will vote to continue free money, food, housing , phone, heating , A/C from the FEW of us that still work and earn our own keep.
First Read:
Here's what we know of Clinton's final travel schedule, per NBC's Monica Alba: PA->MI->OH->FL->PA->NH->OH->PA.
And here's Trump's final travel sked, per NBC's Peter Alexander: NH->OH->PA->FL->NC->NV->CO->IA->WI->MI->PA.
How do you know Trump is behind? Because when you embark on a 10-state, 11-stop blitz at the end -- a la Bob Dole in '96 -- you're not trying to pick one state to flip in order to win. You're trying to flip multiple states.
Plagiarized spam
Maybe there was a change since you wrote this post, but 538 has Florida as a Clinton state, along with New Hampshire and North Carolina.
James thats an absurd conclusion. it more likely means that trump has more energy and Hillary can't keep up with such a schedule.
You betcha.
10%
Wanna bet?
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
Clinton 293
Trump 214
You are out on a limb. Indy just got out the chain saw.
I hope the limb is low.
North Carolina. Latest
Quinnipiac 10/27 - 11/1 602 LV 4.0 44 47 3 Clinton +3
CBS News/YouGov 10/26 - 10/28 992 LV 4.1 45 48 3 Clinton +3
Average 10/27 - 11/2 -- -- 47.4 46.2 2.4 1.3 Clinton +1.2
FOX 13/Opinion Savvy 11/1 - 11/2 603 LV 4.0 49 45 3 1 Clinton +4
Gravis 10/31 - 10/31 1195 RV 2.2 49 46 2 1 Clinton +3
Remington Research (R)* 10/30 - 10/30 989 LV 3.1 44 48 2 -- Trump +4
Quinnipiac 10/27 - 11/1 626 LV 3.9 46 45 2 2 Clinton +1
CNN/ORC 10/27 - 11/1 773 LV 3.5 49 47 3 1 Clinton +2
All Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Polling Data
Indy - As of 10:54 CST
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
Florida is now tied - R+0.0
North Carolina - R+0.2
Yglacias, Vox
Imagine for a moment that Tuesday evening Americans gather ’round their Twitter feeds and television sets and begin to see that the polls were wrong. Not wrong by much, necessarily, but off by about 5 points in each state, meaning that Donald Trump will be elected president and that Republicans will maintain — or even slightly expand — their majorities in Congress. Now imagine that none of the darkest fears of Trump’s critics come to pass.
He doesn’t staff his administration with inept sycophants or sell America out to the Russians or unleash an unprecedented wave of race riots and pogroms or abuse power to persecute his enemies or steal taxpayer money or undermine democratic institutions and the rule of law.
Imagine, in other words, that Trump does what he says he wants to do on taxes, the environment, immigration, and health care. It’s true that he is not a passionate policy wonk; nor does he seem like someone who is deeply invested, on a personal level, in the non-immigration aspects of his policy agenda. But the agenda is there, and on all these non-immigration issues his views are basically in line with the vision put forth by Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who will do the boring work of drafting the bills for Trump to sign.
The result would be a sweeping transformation of American life. Millions would be forcibly removed from their homes and communities as new resources and a new mission invigorate the pace of deportations. Taxes would drop sharply for the richest Americans while rising for many middle-class families. Millions of low-income Americans would lose their health insurance, while America’s banks would enjoy the repeal of regulations enacted in the wake of the financial crisis. Environmental Protection Agency regulation of greenhouse gas emissions would end, likely collapsing global efforts to restrain emissions, greatly increasing the pace of warming.
Millions of Americans would love some or all of these changes, and millions of others would hate them. But most of all, the vast majority of Americans would simply be confused. Someone who’d been following the election moderately closely — scanning headlines, watching cable news, and tuning in to debates — would simply have no idea that this sweeping shift in American public policy is in the offing if Trump wins. Nor would they have any real sense of what the more modest shift in public policy that would emerge from a Clinton win would look like. Beneath the din of email coverage and the mountains of clichés about populism, the mass-market media has simply failed to convey what’s actually at stake in the election.
CH would be thrilled. "I got it right!"
Then, oh shit, "What the fuck was I thinking?"
Roger you are a stupid fuck.
The Liberal Three Stooges, we know you voted or will vote Hillary, good for you.
What Issues do you see her doing in her first 100 days to improve the lives of the middle income earner.
I know what President Trump would do , he told us, drop my current income tax rate from 28 percent to 25 percent.
3 percent difference means $12,000 in my pocket.
SARANDON: 'DNC completely corrupt'..."
She is also , NOT voting for Hillary, she has a YUGE Following, she was once an all - IN Hillary voter.
caliphate4vr said...
CNN just moved Ohio, Maine and Utah to Trump. NH no longer leans donk
November 4, 2016 at 11:38 AM
Yep, but don't tell the Three Liberal Stooges, they still believe Hillary is up 12 points.
What is Hillary's plan for the National Debt, she will add 5 Trillion more to it, IF elected.
Hillary also has more high profile campaign surrogates than Trump. She's got Tim, Bill, Barack, Michele, Bernie, and Anne (Tim's wife) stumping independently for her. Probably Elizabeth and Chelsea too.
Donald has Mike and Melania. Probably Newt and Chris too. Maybe Ted. So Donald needs to cover more ground.
Also, Donald is Donald's own best asset on the stump, which is not something I'd say about Hillary on her campaign.
"Roger you are a stupid fuck."
You got THAT right.
Cali was lying about Maine.
Trump has likely already got the edge, CH. I'm sort of reminded of 1984, Walter Mondale and Gary Hart. From the news coverage in the primaries you'd have thought that those were the only serious candidates, on either side and in fact you'd think that Mondale had it in the bag.
Mondale was the insider establishment candidate in that election, the first Democratic Convention with super-delegates. He barely squeaked by Gary Hart, who was polling far better against Reagan than was Mondale. Sounds familiar already. The polling wasn't wrong that year, but Reagan won every state except Mondale's home state.
Parallels from 1980 had a lesson there as well. Jimmy Carter was seen as "the lessor evil" to Reagan by at least 20% of Americans. Polling was close in October and November, with Carter actually "leading" the polls by more than 6 points and Reagan "catching up" to lead by 1 or 2 at the end. Carter was crushed by a 10% point loss in the actual vote.
As tilted as the coverage was in those elections, the blatant bias is far more severe this cycle. The press tries to create their own reality - perception is reality mantra - but it usually doesn't work. This time around, a couple of the national media polls seem to be part of that effort. Take them with a grain of salt. Trump is likely already ahead.
State Poll Roundup: Friday
November 4, 2016By Taegan Goddard589 Comments
Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:
New Hampshire: Clinton 44%, Trump 44%, Johnson 5% (UMass Lowell)
Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 5% (RABA Research)
Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 38%, Johnson 5% (Roanoke College)
Georgia: Trump 48%, Clinton 46%, Johnson 4% (Landmark)
Missouri: Trump 52%, Clinton 41% (PPP)
New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 43% (PPP)
Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (PPP)
Wisconsin: Clinton 48%, Trump 41% (PPP)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 44% (PPP)
North Carolina: Clinton 49%, Trump 47% (PPP)
Wisconsin: Clinton 44%, Trump 38%, Johnson 7% (Loras College)
Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 4% (Emerson)
Michigan: Clinton 42%, Trump 38% (EPIC-MRA)
New Mexico: Clinton 46%, Trump 43%, Johnson 7% (Zia Poll)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Trump 46%, Johnson 2% (Harper)
Arizona: Trump 47%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 4% (Data Orbital)
Georgia: Trump 49%, Clinton 45%, Johnson 6% (Opinion Savvy)
Final Florida Early Voting Results:
By mail:
Republican 985,142
Democrat 910,908
Unaffiliated 414,719
In person:
Republican 1,108,444
Democrat 1,180,845
Unaffiliated 540,584
Republican total 2,093,586 (33.4%)
Democrat total 2,091,753 (33.4%)
Independent percentage (15.6%)
Total early votes/in mail cast (including other): 6,260,236
It's going to be a razor thin in Florida. 2000 like.
A faithless Hillary Clinton elector in Washington State has publically stated he won't vote for Clinton.
In an election this close, it could make a diffrence.
New NM poll in the ABQ Journal this morning. 45-40 in favor of Clinton, with Johnson and Stein at 11 and 3, respectively. McMullin apparently was not listed as a choice, but he is on the ballot. A little closer than I would have guessed, but both Trump and Pence were here last week.
Same here. I wrote off New Mexico as a Clinton state early.
But with Clinton going to Michigan today I may be rethinking some assumptions.
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