Thursday, November 3, 2016

Here it is...

While I question many of Nate Silver's methods, there is one graph I believe he has that puts things in perspective. The winding state map graph.



What this is showing us is that at this point in time that Hillary Clinton is leading in enough states to get her to 270, while Donald Trump is actually one state short. 

Now for most of your punditry (mostly because they are biased to the left) they will look at the race and "always" analyze it in terms of what Trump must do to win. As in, he has to be perfect in every battleground state, and has no margin of error, etc... etc... This leads us to believe that Donald Trump is always playing a long shot hand, and needs to draw to an inside straight to pull out a win on the river card

But the reality is that for Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency, she too must actually win every single state she is currently polling ahead in, or she will lose. She may have the advantage, but there are a lot of  "outs" for Donald Trump and she still needs to be nearly perfect. 

But wait, Cold Heart, she could lose New Hampshire and still win by winning back North Carolina, Nevada, or Florida? Doesn't that supply her with more paths to victory? 

Not necessarily. Consider that if Donald Trump turns out to be winning in New Hampshire or Colorado, he would be outperforming the polling in those states, and therefor likely outperforming the polling overall. It's unlikely that if the polls were overstating Clinton support in New Hampshire and Colorado, that they would be understating her support in Ohio or Nevada.    

The reality is that it appears that momentum is on Trump's side. Today a CBS/NYT poll came in at a three point race (margin of error). Their last poll (from two weeks ago) showed a double digit Clinton lead. Other polls (FOX, Google Consumer, YouGov, Morning Consult, ABC/WashPost) are also showing small (three or under) Clinton leads. While Rasmussen, People's Pundit, LAT are showing small Trump leads. TIPP, UPI/CVoter. Red Oak, and Gravis are showing the race effectively tied. 

I don't mean to blow my own horn, but this is EXACTLY what I said would happen down the stretch. That most of the polling would start to consolidate to the more traditional close election. You still will likely see a stubborn pollster who will demand that Clinton is still well ahead, but putting everything else (the vast bulk of National and State polls) together, should convince us that those are truly outliers at this point.

56 comments:

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Clinton’s Firewall Is Educated White Women

James Hohmann: “Our fresh Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which has Hillary Clinton ahead by just 2 points among all likely voters nationally, finds that Donald Trump is losing college-educated white women by 27 points.

“If the Republican nominee was anywhere close to Romney’s 52 percent support level among this traditionally Republican-leaning constituency, he would likely win the election. But drilling into the crosstabs of our polling and reviewing credible, state-level data demonstrates how highly unlikely it is that this constituency will waver in the final days. It is one of the reasons that, even though the race has tightened pretty dramatically, Clinton retains a significant structural advantage.”
____________

State Poll Roundup: Thursday

Colorado: Clinton 39%, Trump 39%, Johnson 5% (University of Denver)

Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 34%, Johnson 9% (University of Colorado)

Michigan: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (Mitchell)

North Carolina: Trump 49%, Clinton 44%, Johnson 4% (Trafalgar)

New Hampshire: Trump 40%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 10% (WBUR)

Arizona: Clinton 45%, Trump 44%, Johnson 7% (Saguaro Strategies)
________________

Clinton Remains the Favorite

Stuart Rothenberg: “A final flurry of quality polls in the next few days should give us more of an idea where the race stands. But even then, turnout is likely to be the key — with the focus on three important demographic groups that prefer Clinton: blacks, Latinos and younger voters.

“If those groups turn out in numbers comparable to 2012, Clinton will win, possibly comfortably. If they don’t, an upset can’t be ruled out.

“The bottom line: Clinton remains the favorite (in both the popular and electoral votes), though a less comfortable one than a week ago. The fight for the Senate looks like a toss-up, with Democrats still having more paths than the GOP to a majority. And, the House is not in play.”

Loretta said...

Plagiarized spam.

Same thing, different day.

The pedo can't think for himself.

KD, Trump trending up to victory said...

Ette, I have never seen a more vapid being then Jane.

Trump is pulling more black voters then McCain or Romney. The Liberals have been asking why are the blacks not turning out for Hillary, there is the answer, they are voting, for Trump.

The fight for the Senate looks like a toss-up" cut n paste


Nope, it is not, nor is the US House. It will Remain in Republican hands.

And another thing, Obama is begging for voters to "forgive" Hillary.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

My view, based upon observation of the two campaigns and the two candidates

1: The old fashioned way of running a campaign is the ground game. Example one, in Arizona, Clinton has 33 get out the vote operations. Trump has zero. Ignored but important, McCain has a substantial lead. Trump has a significantly lower percentage of Republicans voting for Trump. This difference is in other states. That would mean that those Republicans may just be splitting the ballot.

2: On the final weekend, the voters take the last look at the two choices. Neither one is popular, but one is volatile, where the other, faults and all, will look like the safer of the two.

That's been talking place for many elections. Yeah, this is an unusual election. But some things don't change.

Should Clinton actually take Arizona, keeps all the blue states are gets Florida and/or North Carolina, both within the margin of error, applying number two, he has no path to 270. Or keeps the blue states, plus Florida or North Carolina, game over.

KD, Focus of Two FBI Criminal Investigations = Hillary Rotten Clinton said...

Her private unsecured server, which Obama KNEW about, was hacked by "at least five foreign intelligence agencies"...

High crimes. " Ette

Well Ette which lie are we to believe, is it the one that Obama is Nazi Sgt Schultz and saw nothing, knew nothing, heard nothing while using a fake name to route his office white house business to HER on HER private server or that he found out about the server when we did on the news?


KD, "Crushing Cost" of ObimboCare said...

My view" HB


LOL., nice cut n paste there dumbass alky.





C.H. Truth said...

Roger... Forrest Gump said "Stupid is as stupid does" meaning that tangible end result matters more than opinions, labels, or complicated explanations for why something "should" be.

Yes... Clinton has many more field operations. That should be translating into big early voting leads, more requests for ballots, and bigger enthusiasm. But just because it "should" doesn't mean it has.

The reality is that early voting is down for Clinton from where Obama was and early voting is running even if not slightly up for Trump from where Romney was. In many key states, Trump has reversed long trends of Democrats winning the early voting.

Pretty much all early voting and late polling is showing a glaring lack of enthusiasm with the all necessary younger voters and her much needed black voters.

These are tangible realities, Roger.

These tangible realities mean infinitely more than opinion as to why things "should be" but are not in actually different.


But I will agree with your last point to a degree. Many people will go into this last weekend taking a final look at the two candidates. They are going to see mainstream liberal media members trying to talk The Donald down on his demeanor and sexual past... while the other half will be talking about criminal FBI investigations, possible indictments, and the inevitable talk of impeachment.

Bill Clinton is proof positive (thanks to the liberal media) that a sexual predator can still be an effective President. Even a popular one. It shouldn't scare people so much.

But Hillary is lumping herself in with Richard Nixon and others who have been criminally investigated. If for no other reason that we will spend the next four years with investigations, investigations, investigations, and likely more investigations... is reason enough to fear another Clinton Administration.

caliphate4vr said...

If for no other reason that we will spend the next four years with investigations, investigations, investigations, and likely more investigations... is reason enough to fear another Clinton Administration.

Without Bubba's likeability

KD, Unemployment Claims SPIKE said...

Crooked Hillary was asked if she asked for Comey to be fired?


She failed to answer the question. Remember everything about the Clinton's is shady.

Indy Voter said...

You oversimplify but are mostly on the right track. The states do not move in lockstep with each other or with the national polls. They do tend to move in the same direction for the most part, though. So she could lose NH and win FL, for instance, even though the reverse is more likely to occur. At this point, states like Georgia and Arizona are not really relevant: if he loses those states he almost certainly will have lost other must-win states like Ohio.

KD, Gutter Trash Obama said...

Obama Panics,,,, He was talking to an all black group and told them that Trump will end their Medicaid.

OMG, this is so 1990's bs playbook shit.

Commonsense said...

I seriously doubt that if Clinton loses New Hampshire she can ever win Florida.

As the graph shows, if Clinton loses New Hampshire then she'll lose every state to the right of it. That's just political gravity.

However a lost in New Hampshire will put Colorado and Pennsylvania into play.

That's why New Hampshire is the crucial state to watch on election night.

With New Hampshire, Trump will likely win the election. Without New Hampshire there is almost no path for Trump. (Which I think was CH's point.)

Anonymous said...



so if i've got this right based upon nate's winding graph, his polling measures expertise falls somewhere between "chutes and ladders" and "candyland."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Democrats on Track to Gain 4-6 Senate Seats

Cook Political Report: “Strategists from both parties warn that they are seeing a lot of volatility in polling, but acknowledge that the playing field seems more level than it has been over the past three weeks. While we still expect Democrats to win the majority, we are lowering the range of potential gains back to the four- to six-seat range.”

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/11/03/electoral-college-ratings-as-of-november-3rd_407.html#.WBuDptQrIsY

Loretta said...

Plagiarized spam

Anonymous said...

If for no other reason that we will spend the next four years with investigations, investigations, investigations, and likely more investigations... is reason enough to fear another Clinton Administration.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

pelosi is already getting out in front of the impeachment talk:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi denounced Republican chatter about impeaching Hillary Clinton as "a brazen attempt" to defy the results of the presidential election.

"In addition to there being no grounds for impeachment to begin with, moving to impeach President Hillary Clinton for alleged activities from before the election would be a brazen attempt to nullify the vote of the American people, outside our constitutional framework and destructive to the Framers' intent," the California Democrat said in a Thursday statement.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pelosi-clinton-impeachment-outside-our-constitutional-framework/article/2606385?custom_click=rss



well, that's one way to telegraph your biggest concerns to the electorate.



KD, No Agenda Hillary said...

Anonymous Indy Voter said...
It is sad that this is basically all the Clinton campaign has, whether it's the racist, unstable, or sexist card they play. They never really made the case of voting FOR her, only kept hammering away st reasons for voting against him. That leaves no real margin for error in case Wikileaks released something really damaging or the email server issue came back.

Trump may well win next Tuesday, and God help the USA if he does, cause we'll need it."

This belongs here.

KD, Obama announced Pardon for Hillary said...

no grounds for impeachment " wait, Polosi is worried about yet another Clinton being impeached. LOL


Nancy, how come Hillary is not running ads for ObamaCare in these closing days, is it because of the financial damage it is doing to 10's of Millions of households.

Anonymous said...

Susan Johnson, of Hudson, received a letter Monday addressed to her father. The letter pointed to public voting records and said he had not voted in the last four elections.

"Who you vote for is secret, but whether or not you vote is a matter of public record. This year we’re sending you and your neighbors those records to help keep track of your civic participation," according to the letter.

"We all know our democracy works best when everyone votes — including you," the letter continues. "How would your friends, family and neighbors feel if they saw your voting record and knew you were an infrequent voter? Do your part and make a plan to vote on Tuesday, November 8th."

Johnson said her father has been dead since 2004.

"He never lived in New York, he hasn’t voted in New York, he hasn’t even been to New York," she said.

Johnson said the organization who sent the letter, a political action committee, or PAC, called Progressive Turnout Project, may have obtained her current address because her father’s mail was forwarded to her Illinois address, then Johnson forwarded mail from her Illinois address to her Hudson address.

A political action committee is an organization that raises money privately to influence elections or legislation, especially at the federal level.

‘I don’t think it’s an appropriate tactic to shame someone, especially an elderly person," she said.

Johnson said she contacted the PAC, and said they were unrepentant.

"They’re very proud of it, the social shaming thing, and they’re very proud that they are using those tactics," she said.

She said she was also worried about what would have happened if her father had received the mailer.

"My father was very vulnerable in his last few years ... he would have been hurt and upset and worried that he did something wrong," she said.

Johnson said she spoke to several other people who received the mailers, including one who said her 10-year-old son received one.

http://www.registerstar.com/news/article_c2374c08-a17d-11e6-9341-030b00d22e24.html


fucking scumbags.


KD, The Bought Hooker Hillary said...

" Clinton assures subsidies will rise with Obamacare premium ..."

Now that is a good little socialist, take money from the middle income earners give it to the poor and make less middle class people.

Hillary left the white house in her words dead ass broke, and now not have holding a job outside of the one she sold to the highest bidder, in now worth over 500 million dollars.

KD, Hooker Hillary said...

The Republicans coming home to Trump

Cruz is doing stops with Pence

McConnell is working for Trump as well.

KD, Comey did not set up the clinton foundation said...

Hooker Hillary is doing Stand up Comedy

Commonsense said...

pelosi is already getting out in front of the impeachment talk:

Anyone want to take a bet that Obama pardons Clinton on his way out?

Commonsense said...

She said she was also worried about what would have happened if her father had received the mailer.

"My father was very vulnerable in his last few years ... he would have been hurt and upset and worried that he did something wrong," she said.

fucking scumbags.


That's too polite.

Loretta said...

"Well Ette which lie are we to believe, is it the one that Obama"

He's a pathological liar.

KD, IRS and FBI Active Criminal Cases against THE CLINTON'S said...

The Dallas IRS Office That's Quietly Determining the Fate of the Clinton Foundation"



Facebook

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The Earle Cabell Federal Building in downtown Dallas is an all purpose office complex, a bastion of federal bureaucracy located at 1100 Commerce St. Most people come for a passport or to get business done in front of a federal judge. But inside, a quiet review is underway that has direct ties to the raging presidential election: The local branch of the IRS' Tax Exempt and Government Entities Division is reviewing the tax status of the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation."

So now we learn that not only is the FBI Criminal Division on White Collar Crime investigating Hillary, but so is the IRS .

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Truthy is blind.

In close states that need get out the vote offices can bring in a few hundred that might not have voted. Look at Georgia, the newest poll shows a tie. A few thousand votes, African American, Hispanics and educated women, can swing a state that is within 1%.

Commonsense said...

HRC has at least 64 offices in Florida and yet black turnout in early voting is alarmingly low (For Clinton).

As Jeb Bush proved, money-in does not always equal results-out.

KD, IRA investigating Clinton Crime Famly Foundation said...

Lapdog Lynch was appointed by Bill Clinton and then By Obimbo, so I am shocked that she has been meeting with Bill and running blocker on anything involving the Investigation of Bill/Hooker Hillary and that "spoiled brat" Kid Chelsea.


KD , More Poor Blacks In the USA today said...

Hillary has spent over 1 Billion Dollars

Trump has spent about 100 million dollars


Remember what the Liberal Says, they hate money, Citizens United, in politics, that is, unless they have the money, then it is ok.

Can anyone Name one Conservative US Senator that is also a Democrat?

OK, now how about in the US House?


C.H. Truth said...

Roger -

First, we all understand what field offices and operatives are supposed to do in theory. Thanks for the unnecessary explanation. But just because you pay large amounts of money for something, doesn't guarantee results.

If her massive field operations are so effective, why is early voting (especially among young voters and blacks) and enthusiasm so weak? Why did Republicans register more new voters this year than Democrats.

I am not providing any sort of "opinion" here Roger. Just providing the facts. The facts at this point do not suggest her large field operations is drumming up new registrations, early voting numbers, or more enthusiasm among voters.

Unless there is a different "point" to field operations that you can point to... you don't get any credit come election day for spending loads of money.

Remember the story about the multi-million dollar promotional package for the new dog food?

caliphate4vr said...

Remember the story about the multi-million dollar promotional package for the new dog food?

Ima thinking I can find a bottle of New Coke, tonight. It should be number one seller of soda worldwide.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

You completely ignored my point. If those offices get out voters who weren't going to vote, yes they can and have been successful. If they get out the vote, it can overcome the complacency of some people.

Is that to complicated for you? If so, the Loretta virus infected you.

Anonymous said...



If those offices get out voters who weren't going to vote, yes they can and have been successful. If they get out the vote, it can overcome the complacency of some people.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

if i buy a lottery ticket i might win.

if

if

if...

btw, nice job with the massive cut n' paste over on the legacy blog. you almost covered the entire front page with a single post.

better luck next time.



Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Now this is interesting.

Even the best case scenario for Donald Trump leaves him still losing.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/03/politicus-presidential-projection-map-november-3-2016.html

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

Conservative, evangelical Christian prognosticator.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

CH, I have been looking at 270towin and can only give, a 20% chance to Trump. If Clinton holds onto every blue state, and if she does, she only needs one of Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, or Colorado. I don't see Trump picking up any upper mid west. He gets Ohio, Indiana and Iowa, CO, and NV.

Anonymous said...


an article that perfectly describes roger's fawning adoration and undying love for his queen:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/why-is-hillary-clinton-so-widely-loved/506402/?utm_source=atltw

try not to slip in the drool puddle when you read it.*

*h/t: twitchy

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Actually, Rat, I don't find a lot of drool in this:
______________

TITLE: What Hillary Clinton's Fans Love About Her

Subtitle: Her supporters are drawn to her intelligence, her industriousness, and her grit.

THE ATLANTIC

We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton, who support her because of her qualifications rather than because of her unqualified opponent, who empathize with her. Yet millions of Americans, women and men, love her intelligence, her industriousness, her grit; they feel loyal to her, they will vote with enthusiasm for her.

Human beings change as they grow, but a person’s history speaks to who she is. There are millions who admire the tapestry of Hillary Clinton’s past: the first-ever student commencement speaker at Wellesley speaking boldly about making the impossible possible, the Yale law student interested in the rights of migrant farmworkers, the lawyer working with the Children’s Defense Fund, the first lady trying to make health care accessible for all Americans.

There are people who love how cleanly she slices through policy layers, how thoroughly she digests the small print. They remember that she won two terms to the United States Senate, where she was not only well-regarded but was known to get along with Republicans. They have confidence in her. There are people who rage at the media on her behalf, who see the coverage she too often receives as unfair. There are people who in a quiet, human way wish her well. There are people who, when Hillary Clinton becomes the first woman to be president of the United States, will weep from joy.

Hillary Clinton was guilty immediately when she stepped into the view of the American public as the first lady of Arkansas. She was a lawyer full of dreams. She had made sacrifices for the man she loved, waived her plans, and moved to his state. But she also dared to think herself her husband’s equal, to assume herself competent enough to take on expanding access to healthcare and reforming the Arkansas public education system. She was guilty of not being a traditional first lady. She offended the old patriarchal order. The conservative media loathed her.

Politicians are ambitious; they have to be. Yet for Hillary Clinton, ambition is often an accusation.
A conservative writer labeled her a congenital liar when she was first lady, and the label stuck because it was repeated over and over—and it was a convenient label to harness misogyny. If she was a liar, then the hostility she engendered could not possibly be because she was a first lady who refused to be still and silent. “Liar’ has re-emerged during this election EVENT THOUGH POLITIFACT, a respected source of information about politicians, has certified that SHE IS MORE HONEST THAN MOST POLITICIANS—and CERTAINLY MORE HONEST THAN HER OPPONENT.

Because she is already considered guilty in a vague and hazy way, there is a longing for her to be demonstrably guilty of something. Other words have been repeated over and over, with no context, until they have begun to breathe and thrum with life. Especially “emails.” The press coverage of “emails” has become an unclear morass where “emails” must mean something terrible, if only because of how often it is invoked.

The people who love Hillary Clinton know that the IT system at the State Department is old and stodgy, nothing like a Blackberry’s smooth whirl. Hillary Clinton was used to her Blackberry, and wanted to keep using it when she became secretary of state. Hackers could have broken into her system, which was not as secure as the State Department’s. But an exhaustive investigation has found no hacking and no nefarious intent—and intent is what matters above all else. Hillary Clinton has apologized. She made an understandable mistake. She did not commit a crime, and did not intend to commit a crime.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...


The American conservative media saw an opportunity to blow the “emails” story out of proportion, soon followed, almost bashfully, by the rest of the American media, obeying the noble rules from journalism school, insisting on false equivalencies even where it makes no sense, which is partly why it has become common to hear that both candidates are equally corrupt [A LIE]. Or equally disliked [A LIE].

Hillary Clinton is a knowledgeable, well-prepared, reasonable, experienced, even-tempered, hardworking candidate, while her opponent is a stubbornly uninformed demagogue who has been proven again and again to be A LIAR ON MATTERS BIG AND SMALL. There is no objective basis on which to equate Hillary Clinton to her opponent.

Millions of Americans do not expect a politician be perfect. They are frustrated that Hillary Clinton is allowed no complexity.

The people who love Hillary Clinton see the failings of the general American media, where news entertains rather than informs. They bristle when benign stories about her are covered with an ominous tone, and book-ended with layers of innuendo. They see that for actions deserving of outrage, the outrage in her case is always outsized.

They know that she is a bit too careful, but they understand that she has to be, that she cannot afford spontaneity. At the debate, when she began a response with “As I recall … ” the people who love her held their breaths because they knew how it came across, as a little staged, a little planned, but they understood. Her words have been so often plucked out of context and turned into scalding weapons, her actions so falsely magnified, that she leaned into caution, wrapped herself in a kind of caution that sometimes makes her appear stilted and in the media world of appearances, stilted can mean insincere.

Hillary Clinton is not a performer. She does not have that charismatic flair—which she does not need to be a good president. But she is running for president in a country that expects news to be entertainment, and politicians to be performers, and so suspicion automatically hangs over her lack of public charisma.

Because Hillary Clinton is a woman, she is judged too harshly for doing what most politicians do—hedging sometimes, waffling sometimes, evading sometimes. Politicians are ambitious; they have to be. Yet for Hillary Clinton, ambition is often an accusation. She is held responsible for her husband’s personal failings, in the gendered assumption that a wife is somehow an adult and a husband a child.

There are millions of Americans who do not have the self-indulgent expectation that a politician be perfect. They are frustrated that Hillary Clinton is allowed no complexity. And they love her.

Anonymous said...


i'm not surprised you don't pastor pederast, since you're actually standing knee-deep in the drool bucket.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

You need to revise your "snake" above, Ch.

On Nate Silver's polls plus forecast NH, NV, NC, and FL are now blue.

On his polls only and his now-cast, NH and NV are blue.

Loretta said...

Plagiarized spam

Loretta said...

Plagiarized spam

Loretta said...

"i'm not surprised you don't pastor pederast, since you're actually standing knee-deep in the drool bucket."

Knee-deep in Jeffrey Epstein bucket....

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The Final Surprise May Be a Boring Election Night

Playbook: “Here’s one theory bouncing around the reporter and political campaign consultant world: Despite the recent tightening of the race, election night could be super boring. If Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is right — and he usually is — Hillary Clinton has all but won that state. If she takes Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia — all states where she seems to have a lead, or is building one through early voting — Donald Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire and still lose.”
______________
complete with link:
(and thus, by SAVAGE-etta's own definition,
NOT plagiarized spam")

https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/04/final-surprise-may-boring-election-night/

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Pro-Trump Misinformation Is Big Business

BuzzFeed News identified more than 100 pro-Trump websites being run from a single Macedonian town.

The young Macedonians who run these sites don’t care about Donald Trump. They are responding to straightforward economic incentives: As Facebook regularly reveals in earnings reports, a US Facebook user is worth about four times a user outside the US. The fraction-of-a-penny-per-click of U.S. display advertising — a declining market for American publishers — goes a long way in Veles. Several teens and young men who run these sites told BuzzFeed News that they learned the best way to generate traffic is to get their politics stories to spread on Facebook — and the best way to generate shares on Facebook is to publish sensationalist and often false content that caters to Trump supporters.
_______________
https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/03/pro-trump-misinformation-big-business/

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

THE CONGENITAL LIAR LIES AGAIN

Trump Disclosures Dramatically Overstate Income

New York Times:
“The records demonstrate that large portions of those numbers represent cash coming into his businesses before covering costs like mortgage payments, payroll and maintenance. After expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on his disclosure forms, or actually lose money. In fact, it is virtually impossible to determine from the forms just how much he is earning in any year.

“Mr. Trump appears to have used a provision in federal ethics laws that allows business owners to list gross revenue, as opposed to net income after expenses, on their disclosure forms. But he does not seem to have completely acknowledged that choice. Rather, he has suggested that the figures on the form represent money in his pocket.”
___________
https://politicalwire.com/2016/11/04/trump-disclosures-dramatically-overstate-income/

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

"Right now, young people, you have this opportunity that doesn't come around all the time where history can move, you can bend the arc of history in a better direction you can reject divisiveness, mean spiritedness, we don't have to go backwards, we can go forward," President Obama said in Jacksonville, FL yesterday. "You have this precious chance to shape history don't let it slip away."
--President Obama in Jacksonvill, FL yesterday.
Today he will be in NC, in Fayetteville and later Charlotte.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

FIRST READ:
It's the final Friday of the 2016 election, so watch out!

The New York Times' Maggie Haberman smartly observes that Fridays have brought most of the bombshell news of this presidential race.

"The last day of the workweek has often proved meddlesome for both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. Key moments in the F.B.I.'s email investigation landed on Fridays; and a 2005 audio recording of Mr. Trump bragging about sexual assault was also revealed on a Friday. The week could end quietly, or it could close with yet another in a series of wave-making afternoons."
____________
It looks like Hillary has weathered this last one.
Is something else coming?

Or perhaps something damaging to Trump?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Like anyone with an operating brain, that excludes Mr Shoot them at the at border and let them rot in the sun, knows that Hillary Clinton is the one and only choice.


caliphate4vr said...

CNN just moved Ohio, Maine and Utah to Trump. NH no longer leans donk

KD, Hillary falling behind Nation Wide said...

HB is ranting and lost it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ch now REALLY needs to revise his Nate Silver "snake" up there above:

Silver now has NV, NH, FL, and NC all blue
in his polls-now and polls only forecasts
and all blue except NC in his polls plus forecast

wphamilton said...

Loudmouth clown vs inept criminal. I don't see how there can be a self-evident best choice there. Unless you erroneously believe that one or the other has a secret plan which will benefit you personally somehow.

The criminal's platform is meaningless, because criminals (unless indicted at some point) don't really have any convictions. They lie about what they believe, and what they intend to do. The clown's platform is also meaningless because he doesn't really understand it, nor care much if he did.

How can you possibly think that there is a clear cut choice in this race, or that either candidate has a significant solid base of support?