Monday, April 10, 2017

A look back at election night

This was my post at 5:49 November 8th:

Early Exit Polls

The first number I look for is the partisan breakdown. Being reported:

37% Dem
32% Rep
31% Ind

This is going to be a smaller advantage for the Democrats than in 2012, much smaller than 2008, and quite frankly smaller than most of your pollsters were projecting for 2016.

I would also offer that quite obviously these exit polls will not include those evening voters who have yet to go to the polls. Evening voters tend to be a bit more Republican than day time voters.

At the end of the day, this actually looks pretty much in line with where I thought we might be (and nearly identical to the partisan breakdown I was using on my projection spreadsheet).

At this point we would seem to be looking at about a two point Hillary popular vote advantage, assuming the polling break down of the demographics is accurate. This would not necessarily guarantee her a electoral college win.

Florida is the key at this point. Buzz is that Clinton is feeling confident in Florida (due to an influx of Hispanic voters) - if she wins Florida, it's going to be pretty much game over for Trump. He would have to literally have to catch an inside straight flush.

Looks like I was pretty close to being spot on, huh?

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