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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Misinterpreting the "twenty point swing"

Many pundits on the left have been pointing out that Tom Price won this seat by twenty three points back in November, and now we have a neck and neck race for his replacement. They have argued repeatedly that this swing is in large part because of Donald Trump's lack of appeal.

I think, however, it misses the larger point... especially when you bring the rest of the information into play.

Yes, Tom Price (a popular incumbent) won by a staggering amount, but Donald Trump only defeated Hillary Clinton by one point. While the left loves to suggest this is somehow a weakness for Trump (did they already forget that he won the Presidency)... there is an alternative conclusion that could be reached.

Perhaps, what we see here is the significant advantage a well known incumbent has someone new trying to step in and win a purple district seat. Perhaps the twenty three points was because Tom Price was popular and because Tom Price had all the advantages of incumbency?

The problem with this logic (for many) is that it would actually play "against" the concept that 2018 is a possible wave election for the Democrats. Many pundits would like to believe that there really has been some sort of big huge swing in favor of the Democrats, and that races the GOP have won comfortably will suddenly become competitive.

While that theory is possible, it's also very possible that if Tom Price was never asked to join the Trump administration, that he would be looking at another twenty point victory next November? Of course, that would suggest that many of the well established GOP incumbents that the Democrats need to pick off to get to 218 would also be tough to beat. I don't think many of these pundits want to believe that.

6 comments:

Indy Voter said...

The problem with your argument is that the non-incumbent Mitt Romney also won this district by 23 points in 2012, running against the incumbent Barack Obama.

rrb said...



Many pundits would like to believe that there really has been some sort of big huge swing in favor of the Democrats, and that races the GOP have won comfortably will suddenly become competitive.
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TDS-driven wishful thinking is most of what the msm would like to pass off as punditry these days.

and the DNC is stupid enough and desperate enough to throw $25 MILLION at this race. so even if pajama boy eeks out a win, the DNC is still $25M poorer for a seat they very well could end up losing in 2018 anyway.

$25M for a likely temporary back bencher?

idiotic, any way you slice it.




rrb said...



Sean Spicier‏

@sean_spicier
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The good news for Osoff is when he screws up he can always say, "don't blame me, I didn't even vote for me"

Caliphate4vr said...

You know that's a parody? And it's hilarious

rrb said...

Anonymous Caliphate4vr said...
You know that's a parody? And it's hilarious
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

oh yeah.

twitchy picked up on it a few months ago and i've been checking it every few days for a good laugh. of course, liberals are falling for it like it's their fucking job. the guy's good. almost as good as iowahawk.

caliphate4vr said...

. the guy's good. almost as good as iowahawk

He's awesome