Monday, September 11, 2017

Reality

Last week’s TWTW discussed Hurricane Harvey, which ended a lull of almost 12 years without a major hurricane making landfall in the US. A major Hurricane being defined as category 3, or above, on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale used by the National Hurricane Center, with sustained wind of 111-129 mph (96-112 knots, 178-208 km/h) or greater.  (link)

Guess what...  The twelve year lull is the longest in recorded history.

Let me repeat that. The twelve year lull is the longest in recorded history.

Yet, I am fairly certain there is an argument being made right now that Katrina, Sandy, Harvey, and now Irma is proof positive that climate change is having a tangible catastrophic effect, and that human activity must be to blame for the fictional uptick in hurricanes...

This type of argument, btw, is called "begging the question". It's a logical fallacy that is generally used with actual logic cannot be used. There is no long or medium term uptick in hurricane activity. So there is technically no reason to blame anyone or anything for it.

It could be that we start to see a short, medium, and long term increase in large hurricanes. At that point, maybe we can start to look into the reasons.

56 comments:

James said...

This is denier BS. Just because major hurricanes do not always happen to make landfall in the US does not mean there have been less major hurricanes. See the following post.

James said...

Hurricane Fay--Was a short lived October 2014 hurricane that lasted only four days, but became the first hurricane to make landfall over the island of Bermuda since 1987 when Emily came ashore there. The storm peaked at 80 mile per hour winds and 983 millibars or 29.03 inches of Hg. The storm produced some 14 inches of rain on the island, downed utlity poles and trees, and street signs. Approximately 27,000 people were left without power on the island, and original estimates of $3.8 million in damage.

Hurricane Gonzalo--A storm that was fast on the heels of Hurricane Fay in October 2014, Gonzalo developed in the Western Atlantic to the East of the Lesser Antilles, and grew to be a strong Category Two Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it came through Bermuda. At peak intensity, Hurricane Gonzalo had maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour with a minimum central pressure of 940 millibars or approximately 27.76 inches of Hg (Mercury). The storm was responsible for three deaths in the Leeward Islands, but none in Bermuda. Gonzalo left approximately $200 to $400 million in damage on Bermuda.

Hurricane Joaquin--The most powerful storm in the Tropical Atlantic during the 2015 season, Joaquin was a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with peak sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 931 millibars or E27.49 inches of Hg. The hurricane hammered the Bahamas island chain with Crooked Islands, Long Cay, Acklins Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, Mayaguana, and Exuma. Storm surge was as high as 12 to 15 feet in Rum Cay, Crooked Island, and Acklins. There was also anywhere from 5 to 10 inches in the Central and Southeastern Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos islands were also affected as well as Haiti, Cuba, and Bermuda. The storm also combined with another low pressure system in the Eastern United States to produce significant flooding in South Carolina, and heavy rains and nor'easter like conditions as far north as New Jersey. Charleston Airport in South Carolina repoorted a one day rainfall total of 11.50 inches on October 3rd, and a four day total of 17.29 inches over the first four days of October. The storm left 34 people dead including thirty-three on the El Faro, a ship that was sunk by the storm, and caused some $60 million in damage in the Bahamas.

James said...

Hurricane Patricia--This was a powerful storm in the Eastern Pacific, which became the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. Intensifying to a Category Five Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale thanks in large part to the extremely warm waters of the Eastern Pacific resulting from an El Nino, Patricia had maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour with gusts well over 200 miles per hour while its minimum central pressure dipped to 872 millibars, or approximately 25.75 inches of Hg (Mercury). The strongest storm prior to that was Hurricane Wilma in the Atlantic in October 2005, which had a lowest pressure of 882 millibars, or 26.05 inches of Hg. The storm eventually came ashore in the sparsely populated region of Southwestern Mexico and left six people dead, and caused some $325 million dollars in damage.

Hurricane Matthew--Was the 13th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and it lasted some 11 days from late in September into early October as it reached Category Five strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and became the deadliest storm in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Stan in 2005. Matthew was responsible for 585 total deaths: 546 in Haiti, 34 in the United States, 4 in the Dominican Republic, and one in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Matthew's peak winds reached 165 mph while its minimum central pressure dropped to 934 millibars or 27.58 inches of Hg.

Hurricane Otto--Affected Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica from November 20-26, 2016. Otto was the first hurricane to ever affect Costa Rica. Otto was also the latest hurricane to form in the Caribbean Sea. It was also the southernmost hurricane landfall in Central America.
Otto's peak intensity was at 115 mile per hour winds and a minimum central pressure of 975 millibars, or 28.79 inches. The storm was repsonsible for 18 direct deaths in Central America, and an estimated $15 million in damage to Costa Rica's coffee industry.

James said...

Hurricane --Became the first major hurricane in almost 12 years to make landfall in the United States, and the strongest Category Four system to make landfall in Texas since Hurricane Carla back in 1961. Harvey was a system that originated off the West African Coast and stayed far to the south before moving into the Winward Islands as a minimal tropical storm. After Harvey went into the Central Caribbean, it dissipated into the open wave. Its remnants then crossed over land into the Yucatan Peninsula. Harvey's remains moved back out over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it rapidly intensified into the strongest storm to date in the 2017 season. Harvey became a Category Four Hurricane with 130 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 938 millibars, or 27.70 inches of Hg when it came ashore near Rockport, Texas on August 25, 2017. The storm remained a hurricane for 15 hours, and a tropical storm for about 48 hours. Harvey produced tremendous rainfall amounts in the Houston area. When it is all said and done, there could be as much as 50 inches of rain in portions of Southeastern Texas.

Hurricane Irma--Could end up being one of the most powerful tropical cyclones of all time period when it is done. It has produced all kinds of records up to this point. First and foremost, it became not only the second major hurricane of 2017, but also the second major hurricane to make landfall in the United States after nearly a 12 year drought. The storm also became the strongest hurricane ever in the Western Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean. Irma also showed plenty of stamina by lasting with 185 mile per hour winds for 37 hours, which outdistanced Super Typhoon Haiyan by some 13 hours. Irma has also equaled the 1932 Cuba Hurricane as the longest lasting storm at Category Five intensity in the Atlantic. Barometric pressure bottomed out at 914 millibars. The powerful and eventually massive storm with hurricane force winds extending some 80 miles from the eye, and tropical storm force winds reaching out some 220 miles, devastated the Northeastern Leeward Islands of Barbuda, Anguilla, and St. Martin in the Virgin Islands. The storm spared Puerto Rico, but then battled the rugged terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba before weakening to a strong Category Three Hurricane with 120 miles per hour. Irma would reinvigorate itself in the Florida Straits before making landfall in Cudjoe Key on September 10th, and then making two more landfalls on Marco Island and in Naples, Florida.

Hurricane Jose--Grew to be the third major hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season as it headed toward the Northern Leeward Islands that were devastated by the impact of powerful Hurricane Irma. The storm intensified to nearly Category Five strength like Irma with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 938 millibars or 27.70 inches of Hg (Mercury). Jose passed north of the Northern Leeward Islands, but is still lurking in the Atlantic at the time of this post (September 10, 2017).

Loretta said...

Here's the link for the pedophile's spam...

http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html

Amused, James said...

Which anyone could easily have found,
since Ch already gave it.

But the question is,
Is Ch's conclusion correct? (No)
Or is mine? (Yes).

Loretta said...

CH is correct.

As usual.

Loretta said...

"See the following post."

Spam

Greatly amused, James said...

Show how he is correct.
I showed how he is not.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

This is BS. Just because major hurricanes do not always happen to make landfall in the US does not mean there have been more major hurricanes.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

ROFLMFAO !!!

Guffawing, James said...

Nor does it mean there have been less.

Loretta said...

"JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY"

LOL

C.H. Truth said...

From Jame's own link:

"Became the first major hurricane in almost 12 years to make landfall in the United States"

Since the argument is that we have seen a huge amount of hurricane damage in the United States because of climate change... how would it matter if there were three major storms in 2014 or three major storms in 1954 that fizzled out in the ocean caused no continental damage?

The answer is that it wouldn't matter.

We have always had tropical storms in the middle of the oceans, many of which would have gone completely undetected in earlier times... as we were not advanced enough to use things like satellites (which didn't even exist prior to the 1950s).

____

So because advances in our satellite and other monitoring help us detect more storms in 2017 than we would have in 1955 or 1970...

The only known generic not-biased objective thing we "can" measure accurately going back in time... is how many of these larger storms were big enough to make it to land and cause damage to the Continental U.S.

By those standards... we have not had any large degree of Hurricane hitting the U.S.


Simple enough for you James?






Patiently James said...

Larger and larger fires in the continental United States and larger and larger fires throughout the world, larger drought conditions, larger melting of glaciers and polar ice (both poles), larger and more dangerous hurricanes due to warmer oceans, some of which will inevitably hit the US and cause unprecedented destruction, suffering, and expense---all that is surely a sign of changing climate.

Simple enough for you, Ch?

Anonymous said...

James, self dealing, gave herself a losing hand.

James deals another hand and said...

Russian Politician Admits Russia ‘Stole’ U.S. Election

Vyacheslav Nikonov,  a member of the Russian parliamentary body, said on Russian television that U.S. intelligence “missed it when Russian intelligence stole the president of the United States,” The Hill reports.

Nikonov was making the point about the superiority of Russia’s intelligence services over U.S. regarding knowledge of North Korea, Afghanistan and Syria.

Anonymous said...

Jane the larger fires according to US Forrest service and Smokey The Bear have two major causes. 1, fuel, excess fuel because we do not let fires burn.
2, 90 percent are caused by careless campers, smokers and arson.

The other 10 % are lightening strikes and other natural causes.

Amused, James said...

Alex Jones Says Trump Is Being Secretly Drugged

Alex Jones on his show:
Ladies and gentlemen, I was told this by high level sources and it was evident and especially after Reagan was shot in his first year in office when he was acting like Trump, and doing the right things, that he never really recovered. They gave him cold blood, and his transfusion that causes brain damage. They slowly gave him small amounts of sedatives. It’s known that most presidents end up getting drugged. Small dosages of sedatives till they build it up, Trump’s such a bull he hasn’t fully understood it yet.

But I’ve talked to people, multiple ones, and they believe that they are putting a slow sedative that they’re building up that’s also addictive in his Diet Cokes and in his iced tea and that the president by 6 or 7 at night is basically slurring his words and is drugged. Now first they had to isolate him to do that. But yes, ladies and gentleman, I’ve talked to people that talk to the president now at 9 at night, he is slurring his words. And I’m going to leave it at that. I’ve talked to folks that have talked to him directly…

Now I’m risking my life, by the way, to tell you all this… They drug presidents because the power structure wants a puppet. The president needs his blood tested by an outside physician he trusts.
______________________
LOL Knee slapping funny.
He's slurring his words because he's drinking. Do you blame him?

Anonymous said...

Omg jane, russian's "superior" in Afghanistan. Really, how dumb are you. Better cue your HB moniker, he is a historical genius, in his liver damage mind.

Loretta said...

"Simple enough for you James?"

You can't make it simple enough for him...

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Twitchy:

#NeverForget Hillary and Obama blamed a VIDEO: Dana Loesch remembers Benghazi, honors the fallen

As Americans remember 9/11 from 2001, there was another incident we also must keep in our hearts and minds on this date … and that was the murder of four Americans by radical Islamic terrorists in Benghazi.

You know, the one Hillary and Obama blamed on a video?

Some thoughtful tweets:

Thankfully the Obama Administration acted swiftly and arrested a You Tube film maker rather than the actual perps.

Didn't Hillary, arms flapping, tell us "what difference does it make at this point"?

Politics as usual, what a shame. Four Americans that died, not because of a dream, but because of weak leadership and political inaction's.

:Laughing, James said...

Nikonov said it, stupid. I didn't.
Need your eyesight examined?

Encouraged, James said...

Booker Backs Single-Payer Health Care
September 11, 2017 just now

Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) told NJTV News that he is co-sponsoring Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) single-payer health care bill called “Medicare for All” which would expand the federal health care program that covers those over 65 to all Americans.

Said Booker: “This is something that’s got to happen. Obamacare was a first step in advancing this country, but I won’t rest until every American has a basic security that comes with having access to affordable health care.”

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

Twitchy:

Forget something? AP leaves MAJOR detail out of DACA news alert

AP: BREAKING: California has filed a lawsuit challenging Trump's decision to end a program that protects young immigrants.

Someone a lot smarter than little james figured it out - "Well they're illegal aliens, not immigrants. Please @AP stop with the one sided political posturing."

ROFLMFAO !!!

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

HE WILL WIN: Kid Rock calls down the thunder on ANYONE taking a knee during National Anthem

"Fuck anyone who takes a knee or sits during our national anthem!" - Kid Rock

ROFLMFAO !!!

C.H. Truth said...

larger and more dangerous hurricanes due to warmer oceans, some of which will inevitably hit the US and cause unprecedented destruction

Apparently it was not simple enough for you James...

as you failed to grasp the simple fact that there is no evidence that hurricanes have more likely to hit the United States than they previously were... In fact, they have been historically less likely over the past decade to hit the United States.

But you continue to argue the factual opposite.

______


Are you (at least) smart enough to understand that if a hurricane hits a portion of Florida in the 1950's when there were only 20,000 people living in an area vs a hurricane hitting the same area of Florida in 2017 when there are a million people living there... that it's going to be more costly and dangerous to people.

and that the increase in cost and danger has nothing to do with global warming? But to the simple fact that we are building up our urban areas in places that are susceptible to tropical storms?

Even more amused, James wih exceeding patience explains...and said...

The storms are getting larger, Ch. We just had two monster ones in a row. Where they go, no one knows, but the fact that they are larger makes them more dangerous.

Even a third grader can understand that.

wphamilton said...

Before we can try to draw any conclusion about climate change vs a 12 year lull of major hurricanes making landfall, we need to first ascertain whether there really fewer hurricanes or whether there were as many or more, but just didn't happen to make landfall in the US during that period.

Have climatologists claimed that climate change means that major hurricanes will necessarily hit the USA in a given year, or decade? Is it that abnormal, or within the range of normal probabilities? Yes I saw that "larger and more dangerous hurricanes due to warmer oceans, some of which will inevitably hit", which may be absolutely true and still have that "12 year lull". If they had said "X major hurricanes will hit the US in a period of Y years", then you'd have a point. Did they CH?

Anonymous said...

And yet James this one to hit Florida ranks only in 8th place.

Anonymous said...

For those that believe, what 5 things do you do in your own life to save the Earth?

Bitching is not one of them.

Highly encouraged, James said...

Re 2:45
How nice to draw our attention to this.

California files suit against Trump on DACA

LOS ANGELES — California and three other states on Monday added to a barrage of states challenging President Donald Trump’s decision to rescind protections for undocumented people brought to the United States illegally as children.

The lawsuit, in which California was joined by Minnesota, Maryland and Maine, comes five days after 15 states and the District of Columbia first filed suit to defend the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

Flanked by two DACA recipients in Sacramento, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra called Trump’s order “unlawful and mean-spirited,” arguing it violates due process provisions of the Constitution and would hurt the economy in the nation’s most populous state.

“You don’t become the sixth-largest economy in the world just because,” Becerra said. “It just so happens that one of every four of the DACA recipients in this country — some 200,000 — live and work and call California their home, and they’ve been helping California become the sixth-largest economy in the world.”

He said repealing DACA would unfairly punish productive, law-abiding young people and that the economic cost of deporting them “would be felt by California businesses, California local governments who have depended on the economic success of the DACA program.”

The Trump administration has said the Obama-era executive order is unconstitutional, while Trump said last week that he will delay ending DACA for six months in order to give lawmakers time to craft a legislative solution to protect so-called Dreamers.
More than 200,000 DACA recipients live in California, about one in every four recipients nationwide.

The Third Grade said...

james, we want our little boys back

Anonymous said...

Have we heard. From Common Sense today.

C.H. Truth said...

If they had said "X major hurricanes will hit the US in a period of Y years", then you'd have a point. Did they CH?

I think the argument, WP, being tossed around "today"... is that Harvey and Irma hitting American soil is specifically because Global Warming makes it more likely that big storms will hit the United States (and that two in one year is proof).

If you have been paying attention (and no doubt you are) you already know that these two storms have caused a bit of a chasm in the climate change community, between those who suggest that it means something, and those who suggest that it doesn't.


Logically... if the argument is that global warming causes more hurricanes... then we probably need more actual data to work with. Obviously we had very little ability to check for storms in the middle of nowhere 100 years ago.

But if the argument is that global warming will cause more hurricanes to hit the United States (which it is for many) - then we have plenty of data to prove otherwise.

Anonymous said...

James just posted that Amercans, legal ones, home grown where/are incapable of making CA. a great state, it took the illegals to build the State.

C.H. Truth said...

California files suit against Trump on DACA


Obviously James is predicting a legal victory here... where the courts rule that only previous Presidents can offer Executive Orders on immigration, but current Presidents cannot.

:Laughing, James said...

Global warming is making storms bigger and bigger, but we can just take our chances on where they will hit. Thus Ch plays American roulette.

Amused, James said...

Some here say I like little girls.
Some here say I like little boys.
Some here have even said I like little animals.

I know I like Miss America, her intelligence as well as her looks.
;-)

Anonymous said...

To do what US Citizens could not do in CA., it took only 200 k, of the highly educated businesses building wealth creating DACA .

Anonymous said...

I read the posts of the true belivers.

Yet to read in their own words their personal action they live by to slow what they belive in, each of them are human so each of the true believers are killing the earth.

Anonymous said...


California files suit against Trump on DACA
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


and NY will file very soon.

i can excuse my governor for wanting to find a court to uphold an unconstitutional order. after all, he needed more than one try to pass the NY bar exam.

and my AG? he's a fucking asshat on stilts.



Anonymous said...

Rrb, are the DACA wealth creators out working, out property owning, out earning legal Americans in NY State like they are in CA, like jane told us they are?

Loretta said...

"Amused, JamesSeptember 11, 2017 at 3:25 PM
Some here say I like little girls.
Some here say I like little boys.
Some here have even said I like little animals.

I know I like Miss America, her intelligence as well as her looks.
;-)"

Sick, sick pedo.

Anonymous said...

Yep

Anonymous said...

Jane and 《hb》 the Queens of Cut n paste no original thought.

Anonymous said...

And off go the true belivers aka true polluters.

Good old gentle decent hetereosexual James said...

Nothing sick or pedo about liking Miss America. :-)

I never liked little boysand the only time I remember liking a little girl, she was in the second grade and I was in the third.
LOL

Anonymous said...

Not one liberal does one thing in their own life but pollute.

caliphate4vr said...

What idiot references Alex Jones???? Seriously?

wphamilton said...

I think the argument, WP, being tossed around "today"... is that Harvey and Irma hitting American soil is specifically because Global Warming makes it more likely that big storms will hit the United States

That would be dubious, IMO. Just because something makes it more likely to happen, doesn't mean that it's the actual cause that made it happen. You'd have to argue that without global warming those hurricanes would not have hit America, and of course that cannot be proven.

Have climatologists actually said that, or is it from someone arguing against them indirectly, perhaps interpreting what they have said in such a manner as to advance their own opinion?

wphamilton said...

But if the argument is that global warming will cause more hurricanes to hit the United States (which it is for many) - then we have plenty of data to prove otherwise.

I don't think so, and neither does the NASA study in 2015. We have had a lot of tropical storms - and hurricanes - hit the US in that time period. The data we have does not prove that global warming will not cause more hurricanes.

commie said...

Middle-class income hit highest level on record in 2016, Census Bureau reports
Median household income in America was $59,039 last year, surpassing the previous high of $58,655 set in 1999, the Census Bureau said. The figure is adjusted for inflation and is one of the most closely watched indicators of how the middle class is faring financially.

commie said...

THANX OBAMA!!!! The unlost years...


Middle-class income hit highest level on record in 2016, Census Bureau reports
Median household income in America was $59,039 last year, surpassing the previous high of $58,655 set in 1999, the Census Bureau said. The figure is adjusted for inflation and is one of the most closely watched indicators of how the middle class is faring financially.

commie said...

But if the argument is that global warming will cause more hurricanes to hit the United States (which it is for many) - then we have plenty of data to prove otherwise.

No credible scientist is making that argument!!!!!!

There is no long or medium term uptick in hurricane activity. So there is technically no reason to blame anyone or anything for it.

And no scientist says there is an increase of activity...I believe you are sadly mistaken again....However, predictions for stronger storms is true and by evidence of this year alone seems to be on mark for that being true. Warm water makes strong storm....Irma passed over record high SST and became the first hurricane to maintain cat 5 status for 70+ hours and peaked at185 for 30 hours....all thanks to SST being higher than normal by 1 C.

commie said...

Let me repeat that. The twelve year lull is the longest in recorded history.

Yep and this year sure proves that statistic as meaningless.....Almost as meaningless as Judith Curry, the source of your so called data....Suggest you take a look at ACE and tell me what is going on.....