It was largely expected that Ralph Northam would defeat Ed Gillespie. For much of the contest, the RCP average fluxuated between three and seven points for Northam. A handful of polls showed Northam with large double digit leads, while a handful of polls showed Gillespie leading. There was a surge for Gillespie a couple of weeks ago, but that seem to subside and the last several polls all had Northam winning by different margins. All of this only goes to show how unreliable and (quite frankly manipulative) polling has become. In the end, Northam won by a fairly comfortable 8.6% margin. A good showing for Northam no doubt, but nothing "shocking".
Much will be made of the Northam win, along with other expected wins by heavily favored Democrats in New Jersey and New York. I am sure that many of your pundits will see this as some sort of wave situation. But at the end of the day, the previous special elections, along with these off year elections have wielded pretty much the results people should have expected. While Democrats hoped to pick up an unset win in Georgia 6 and Republicans hoped to pick up an upset win in Virginia, both sides came out disappointed. At this point, we are still missing that elusive "big upset" that might suggest a political realignment of some sort.
The good news for Democrats is that these wins will provide them with momentum. The good news for Republicans is that (so far) status quo has won out (and status quo is all they need to retain their advantages). The reality for both Parties is that next year is next year, and twelve months can be a lifetime in politics.
56 comments:
Sycophant Ch Truth: "Northam won by a fairly comfortable 8.6% margin. A good showing for Northam no doubt, but nothing 'shocking'."
Mike Allen: “Top Republicans were stunned by the severity of the shellacking, and worry that it will endanger both tax reform and the House majority.”
NJ was all about Chris Christie not trump.
VA was already democrat.
Sorry dems but this wasn't about trump.
Virginia and New Jersey rejected "Trumpism" when they voted for Hillary last November...and Trump won anyway.
So the real news story is "Two pro-Hillary blue states remained blue."
Let the democrats have their 48 hours of celebration...nobody will even remember this election by the weekend.
I think there is more a collective sigh of relief from the Democrats this morning than outright jubilation.
If they have lost the Virginia governor's they would be totally demoralized.
Still there is a brewing civil war in the party, it will be interesting to see who takes control.
I think if the Bernie Sanders progressive wing of the party takes control it will be a disaster of McGovern like proportions.
"Still there is a brewing civil war in the party"
Getting heckled by his own party members was entertaining.
You ignored the VA House of Delegates results. Democrats have gained 14 seats so far and have 48 seats in the 100 person chamber with five races (all Republican seats) still too close to call. Nobody was expecting those kinds of gains.
This is not just a firing shot across the bow of the Republican party. The depth of the Democratic victory is a successful torpedo attack on the U.S.S. Donald J. Trump.
The depth of the dislike of the President, motivated a very high voter turnout. The demographics don't look good for the Republicans nationwide. The women vote was overwhelmingly a vote against the President. And remember that historically, more women vote than men. Even in the (Fake News), polls show that the white, male, non college educated voters that put Donald Trump in the White House, are expressing regrets, and voted for the Democrats, all across the state of Virginia, and elsewhere.
Predictions a year in advance on politics is a fool's game. So I'm just saying that for the first time in ten years, the Democrats have an opportunity, and given the Republicans are on board a sinking ship, they better not blow this opportunity.
The Bernie Sanders supporters are not going cause a civil war inside the Democratic party, than compared to the alt-right versus the establishment in the GOP. Not even close.
Roger - just Monday you predicted a big Ed Gillespie win!
RACIST Hillary" Donna Brazille
" closed my curtains" afraid of the Clinton sniper
CH, I admitted to a mistake and revised my comments. Don't play rat games.
Bernie Sanders said "Hillary-DNC rigged the election against him.
Sen. Warren agrees with Sanders as does Donna Brazille.
"The Bernie Sanders supporters are not going cause a civil war inside the Democratic party"
LOL. Sure.
Sanctuary city supporters...
https://www.nbcnews.com/card/northam-victory-speech-disrupted-apparent-protesters-n818836
*sanctuary STATE
Well Rog...
Let us know the "first" time you you ever predict a Republican to win any sort of close race.
The good news for Democrats is that these wins will provide them with momentum.
I guess that you're still rejecting my thesis that there is no such thing in politics. When a number of elections go one party's way, more than was expected, it is due to political or demographic factors which may have been unknown or underestimated - there is no "momentum" from one campaign to the next. Whatever factors were involved in one election were also extant in the other, simple as that.
That's how I see it anyway, and it seems like there are fewer surprises and contradictions when you approach it from that perspective.
Its a shot across the bow because VA went from one dem gov to another while NJ voters got tired of Chris Christie.
Yeah sure.
WP - Does "momentum" really exist anywhere other than psychologically?
To the degree that these wins matter; it might be to fire up the base, garner some extra donations, possibly even convince a candidate or two who is on the fence to run because they believe that they have a better chance.
Do I think it's a "large" factor? Nope. I rarely take special and off year elections very seriously as far as being gauges as to how the next actual cycle goes. Most serious analysts agree with that sentiment.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
This is not just a firing shot across the bow of the Republican party. The depth of the Democratic victory is a successful torpedo attack on the U.S.S. Donald J. Trump.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LOL. straight off the pages of the ny times...
last night's results are a full throated "refudiation" of donald trump!!!11!
pssst... hey alky...
the dems haven't won a meaningful election since 2010.
they were due, for chrissakes.
Rat...
You give too much credit.
This was hardly a meaningful election.
Three major state wide races, all where the Democrats were favored... only one even deemed competitive. Anything other than a sweep of those three races would have been a disaster for the Democrats.
This was hardly a meaningful election.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
indeed, but you wouldn't know it by the drivel being published by the left. according to them this is a major turning point. this was the election where the entire country turned on trump and rendered him powerless and ineffectual.
according to the alky the man has been destroyed.
I'm not gleeful about GOP losing elections. But if you have gangrene in your leg (Trump), chop the sucker off. But 2018 is looming & that is a big chop. #WakeUpGOP," John Weaver said
Go away pedo.
"according to the alky the man has been destroyed."
HA! The entire Republican party was destroyed yesterday!!! LOL.
Are we conservatives "aimlessly wondering the woods" again?
WP - Does "momentum" really exist anywhere other than psychologically?
If by psychologically you mean internalizing a misapprehension of reality, then pretty much no it doesn't exist.
Newton's laws and things truly analogous - breaking someone's competitive will to resist is a form of "momentum". But mostly no, people are just describing events after the fact and the mistake they make is when they assume that the event, this election for example, actually does impart something like momentum. Momentum means that the next Democrat starts already propelled forward, and the Republican starts uphill. But it's not true; in reality whatever impacted voters in this election must be identified and replicated for the next, as otherwise there is no impact from this one to the next. The difference is not semantic, not trivial.
Are we conservatives "aimlessly wondering the woods" again?
Are you conservatives still following Trump, or are you more committed to the conservative agenda? Do you acknowledge that there is a difference?
Momentum is also enthusiasm and enthusiasm has definitely been evoked by this win.
GOP Candidates Are Tied Tightly to Trump
Ron Brownstein: “For months, Republican strategists, and even some Democratic ones, have argued that because Trump is such a unique figure, voters unhappy with him were less likely to take it out on other candidates from his party than they’d been with previous presidents. Tuesday’s results exploded that idea.
"In both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, exit polls found a clear majority of voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance—and that in both contests about 85 percent of those dissatisfied voters backed the Democrat. That result fits squarely in the range typical of House and Senate elections over the past two decades.
"In other words, it clearly signaled to congressional Republicans that they will be bound to Trump more than they hoped or expected in future elections.
“The soaring wave of discontent translated into solid turnout and crushing margins for Democrats in their key voter groups, all of which have expressed intense resistance to Trump in polls.”
That's just an emotional afterglow James, the momentary enthusiasm of a Virginia voter is meaningless to an election the next state over. Or even in the next county over. All politics is local, is still true today.
The only way to transfer "enthusiasm" (for votes, for donations, for recruitment) is to identify what actually motivated the voters, and to replicate it. Enthusiasm of a win is non-transferable.
How many Republicans already made this mistake I wonder, thinking that they had enthusiasm going their way, because their recent successes in special elections provided "momentum" going into these elections? Any who did, obviously were wrong.
There Was Another Winner Tuesday — Obamacare’s Medicaid Expansion
by Benjy Sarlin
Barack Obama may not be running for anything these days, but his signature health care law was a big winner in Tuesday’s elections, as voters rebelled against Republican lawmakers who have blocked Obamacare's Medicaid expansion.
Democrats are hopeful their victories are a harbinger of further gains as they look to capitalize on the law's rising popularity in polls — and repeal legislation's deep unpopularity — with more ballot initiatives, legislative efforts and campaign messages.
Battered by Trump, Obamacare triumphs at the polls
The 2010 health law survived a GOP repeal onslaught and buoyed Democrats on Tuesday.
Obamacare made a comeback in Tuesday’s elections, its strongest show of support since President Donald Trump was elected and the GOP spent months on a futile effort to repeal it.
In the governor’s race in Virginia and a ballot initiative in Maine, the Affordable Care Act buoyed Democrats, a remarkable reversal from how Trump and congressional Republicans won elections excoriating the “failed” and “doomed” law.
A remarkable 4 out of 10 Virginians in an early exit poll said health care was their top issue in a race that saw Democrat Ralph Northam, the current lieutenant governor, handily defeat Republican Ed Gillespie to become Virginia's next governor. And in Maine, voters in a landslide backed Obamacare Medicaid expansion, which their governor had vetoed on five separate occasions.
As Democrats now look to the 2018 midterms that will decide control of the House, Senate and key governorships across the country, they can begin to more confidently embrace the law that’s covering 20 million Americans and that emerged politically stronger after surviving months of concentrated Republican repeal attacks.
I don't think anybody really read anything into the special elections WP.
Unless of course you count the enormous amount of money the Democrats spent on the Georgia 5th trying to take that seat away from Republicans.
That hemorrhage badly needed funds and donations away from the Democrats.
Other than that, both parties pretty much held serve.
And if the Republicans can continue to hold serve then they will still control Congress in January 2019.
...what is unusual about Tuesday night is the extent to which the two races were about Trump. And the stark results cast fresh doubt on the health of Republican majorities in the House and Senate, in addition to gubernatorial races in next year's midterm elections.
Trump’s approval rating in Virginia was just 40 percent, according to the exit poll. Among the 57 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump’s job performance, Democrat Ralph Northam beat Republican Ed Gillespie, 87 percent to 11 percent.
The intensity gap strongly favored Northam, too. Nearly half of Virginia voters, 47 percent, strongly disapproved of Trump — and Northam won 95 percent of that vote. In other words, nearly 45 percent of the votes cast on Tuesday were from strong Trump disapprovers who voted for Northam.
Half of Virginia voters said Trump was a reason for their vote — with twice as many saying they were voting to oppose Trump (34 percent) as to support him (17 percent). Northam won 97 percent of voters for whom opposing Trump was a factor.
Then again, Virgina Republicans may be doubling down on Trump. Or at least rejecting he establishment wing of the GOP.
Corey Stewart: Virginia elections results shouldn’t be read as rejection of Trump
Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart said Tuesday voters should not misread the outcome of Virginia’s gubernatorial election as a rejection of President Trump.
Republican Ed Gillespie fell well short of defeating Democrat Ralph Northam in the race, months after Mr. Stewart nearly stunned Mr. Gillespie in the GOP primary after running a Trump-inspired campaign that focused on immigration and preserving Confederate memorials.
“Ed rejected Trump,” Mr. Stewart told The Washington Times after the race was called. “Ed distanced himself from Trump. He wouldn’t campaign with him. In the primary and general he would not even retweet President Trump’s endorsement of him.”
Mr. Stewart, who is now running for the U.S. Senate in 2018, said there is another clear lesson to be learned from the results.
“It means that we never again nomination a Republican from the Bush wing of the Republican Party,” Mr. Stewart said.
I think this little civil is just about over.
What is usual about Tuesday night was that the President wasn't on the ballot and the expected people won.
There will be some dumb people who may want to read something into this. These would be the same people who predicted a double digit victory for Clinton just a year ago. There will be even dumber who will listen to them. It has already been a year since they were last fooled and they don't have the intellect to remember that far back.
https://www.idiotslinkstories.com
Blogger Commonsense said...
I don't think anybody really read anything into the special elections WP.
Unless of course you count the enormous amount of money ...
But ... wasn't that all Hillary's money, per the secret agreement ... could have been use it or lose it. Who knows, until we see another DNC insider tattle-tell or email hack.
BTW I think you "read something into" the special elections there, but thankfully not "momentum".
HB's beloved Paul Krugman predicted a Trump Win would cause a depression and US Stocks would fall, to never recover.
US Stocks Closed today at Historic Highs.
Blogger C.H. Truth said...
Roger - just Monday you predicted a big Ed Gillespie win!
A typical CH BS lie....which CH knew Roger corrected the statement, but posted it any way trolling for what????? How the might have fallen...
What time did you first realize Clinton's chances of winning where Slip sliding away"?
CNN reports that Hillary Clinton personally called President Trump today, the topic(s) discussed are unknown according to the leaked story.
HILLARY Showing some class?
KD the dolt posted....
HB's beloved Paul Krugman predicted a Trump Win would cause a depression and US Stocks would fall, to never recover.
I saw faux news covering that item earlier...I guess that was the only news they were willing to show in lieu of the drubbing R's took and had to blame someone for the great job trump is not doing...What a joke that station is. and for the fornicator to post it again and again and again....idiot.
The wins last nite kinda seem like a surprise the the Dems, you won in your home turf.
How about winning an away game , say Win the Sessions Senate Seat.
Mark Cuban "100 % certainty of a huge, huge correction".
Flynn Worried About Son’s Legal Exposure
Former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn has expressed concern about the potential legal exposure of his son, Michael Flynn Jr., who, like his father, is under scrutiny by special counsel Robert Mueller, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell CNN.
“Flynn’s concern could factor into decisions about how to respond to Mueller’s ongoing investigation. The special counsel is looking into Russian meddling in the 2016 campaign as well as the business dealings of key campaign advisers to President Trump.”
Trump Says Democrats Will Like Senate Tax Plan More
President Trump “moved to assuage centrist Democratic senators’ concerns about the House Republican tax overhaul by telling them the Senate version will be more to their liking, in comments that risk muddying the GOP’s effort to get a bill passed,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Trump: “You’re going to like it a whole lot more.”
InfoWars Republished Content from Russian Site
“Over the past three years, conspiracy site InfoWars has copied more than 1,000 articles produced by Russian state-sponsored broadcaster RT to its website — all without the permission of RT,” BuzzFeed News reports.
“InfoWars is headed by radio host Alex Jones who propagated the false Pizzagate conspiracy theory, fueled hate against migrants, and pushed the unfounded theory that former president Barack Obama is not an American citizen… Jones and his outlet have also faced accusations that their work often aligns with Kremlin-funded outlets such as RT, and that they have at times benefitted from amplification from Twitter bots and other Russian information operations.”
Team Trump Deflects Deflects Blame After Election Losses
“The White House was in damage control mode on Wednesday as it sought to deflect blame for Tuesday night’s sweeping electoral losses and reassure Republicans who fear President Trump’s unpopularity will cost them at the polls in 2018,” The Hill reports.
“A person familiar with the president’s political operation dismissed the notion that an anti-Trump wave is building, arguing that Democrats had merely held on in states they were expected to win. New Jersey is a deep blue state and Virginia has gone for the Democrat in the last three presidential elections.”
Papadopoulos Met with British Officials
George Papadopoulos, who admitted lying to the FBI about his Russian contacts and was dismissed by the White House as a “low-level volunteer,” met a British Foreign Office official, two months before the presidential election, for a “working level” meeting, the BBC reports.
“While such meetings may be routine diplomacy, the fact that Papadopoulos was presenting himself to the government of one of the U.S.’s closest allies as a representative of the Trump campaign undercuts the White House’s recent assertion that Papadopoulos was a campaign volunteer of little importance.”
A Suburban Uprising
New York Times: “The American suburbs appear to be in revolt against President Trump after a muscular coalition of college-educated voters and racial and ethnic minorities on Tuesday dealt the Republican Party a thumping rejection and propelled a diverse class of Democrats into office.
“From the tax-obsessed suburbs of New York City to high-tech neighborhoods outside Seattle to the sprawling, polyglot developments of Fairfax and Prince William County, Va., voters shunned Republicans up and down the ballot in off-year elections. Leaders in both parties said the elections amounted to an earsplitting alarm bell for Republicans ahead of the 2018 elections, when the party’s grip on the House of Representatives may hinge on the socially moderate, multiethnic communities surrounding major cities.”
GOP Tax Bill Has a Deficit Problem
CNBC: “The GOP bill including some changes would increase federal budget deficits by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, according to Joint Committee on Taxation estimates shared by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. That includes money for additional debt service payments due to the bill.
“Under budget rules congressional Republicans are using to pass a tax plan, the bill can only increase deficits by $1.5 trillion over 10 years, before growth is taken into account.”
Women racked up victories across the country Tuesday. It may be only the beginning.
The Washington Post
Until yesterday, only 17 of the 100 members of the Virginia House of Delegates were women. Now, the number will surge to nearly 30.
Women racked up victories across the country on Tuesday, and are being credited with the Democrats' big night overall. It is a testament to the remarkable explosion of women candidates who have entered the political stage since Donald Trump was elected president one year ago.
The wave is likely to continue. In 2018, 40 women are already planning to run for governor. Dozens more are considering congressional and other statewide office bids. And Tuesday's result has already become a rallying cry for activists seeking to draw even more women into the public square.
"This is huge," said Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List, the political group that backs female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights. "This is how we build momentum for 2018. Women are going to lead the
way."
It was a night of historic wins for women and minorities across the nation. In Helena, Mont., a refugee from Liberia became the first black mayor. Seattle elected its first female mayor in almost a century, and in Charlotte, a black woman won for the first time.
All of it revealed a dramatic election night fueled by opposite forces to those at work in 2016: A surging coalition of women, minorities and immigrants angered by Trump's election and presidency — and eager for their voices to be heard in politics.
article continues
Skipped
This is a meaningless election.
You are going to be choking on the words in the next year.
It will join the famous "Kerry in a landslide" historical safe.
Well the senate map is still terrible for Democrats and it will still take an extraordinary wave election to take the house.
Best estimate at this point. The GOP will pick up about 5 seats in the senate, lose 12 seats in the House but still will keep control.
Republican reaction after a disappointing loss:
Figure out what went wrong, put their nose to the grindstone, and work harder to win the next election.
Democrat reaction to a disappointing loss:
Gather around at street corners and scream helplessly at the sky.
Why Republicans will ultimatily win.
Yep.
A year ago today the rain started to fall on the liberal parade.
Hillary launched her #resist movement.
Impeach Trump started on this day a year ago and the US stock market was in free fall, right HB?
You are going to be choking on the words in the next year.
It will join the famous "Kerry in a landslide" historical safe.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
hey alky,
let us conservatives know when we're supposed to start wandering aimlessly through the wilderness, 'k?
The Republican reaction is self-serving and ignore the reality of the gathering storm.
The enthusiasm of the voters was overwhelmingly positive for the future. The women who live in the suburbs, turned out in massive numbers. Turn out, turn out, turn out. A significant factor is they see Trump like the men who made inappropriate sexual assault. Almost every single women have experienced this. But that's not the main reason for turning out in overwhelming numbers.
They see him as a failure and dishonest. It was a referendum on the President. The women stood in line, in the rain. This isn't going away. The 2018 election will be 2010 on steroids. The congress will change hands. Speaker Ryan will be facing the campaign of his life.
Republican congressman and women, who represent districts that voted for Clinton are resigning. The President is a death sentence to congressional candidates. 2018 will be for the most part, a referendum on the President Trump. It's not unusual historically. But because Trump is (unusual), it's going to be historical. The Democrats have to provide more than just anti-Trump, Health care and preserving Medicaid will get the older voters to the polls. Even the older, white men, who voted for Donald Trump, will turn out.
The Republicans will react by trying to limit the minority vote by limit access to the polls, again shouting vote fraud! It will not work. It will be 2010+ and the Trumpism infested truthers will be in tears.
LOL.
good one alky.
now then... i'm off! off to the wilderness!!!
wandering...
aimlessly...
wilderness.
This is all you are capable of saying.
Alzheimer's disease is a tragedy.
Post a Comment