Thursday, October 20, 2016

Here is some Irony...

Three of the four daily tracking polls show Trump winning.

  • TIPP - Trump +1
  • People's Pundit - Trump +2
  • Rasmussen - Trump +3

The fourth is the LA Times poll... showing the race all tied up at 44%.

(Note: as of today, LA Times poll shows Trump winning as well)

For most of this election cycle the liberal pundits have been decrying the LA Times poll as a complete biased piece of garbage poll to be discarded like yesterday's trash. Now it actually shows the best result for Clinton out of the four daily tracking polls that I am able to track daily. I suppose that means that TIPP (who was the most accurate pollster in 2012), People's Pundit (who got all of the Senate races correct in 2014), and Rasmussen must be even more evil and horrible in comparison.

BTW, a quick peak at 538 shows that Silver adjusts the IBD/TIPP poll in Hillary's favor. In spite of it being released today,  he has 12 polls ahead of it for purposes of weighted averaging. He does the same thing with Rasmussen, adjusting it towards Clinton and then placing it one spot below TIPP as far as his weighted average. He adjusts the LA Times poll by five points towards Clinton, and ignores the Peoples Pundit poll all together. Interestingly he does include a poll by the Picayune/Lucid Times newspaper (out of New Orleans?) that shows Hillary up by twelve (which he hasn't even rated because it's never been a poll before 2016*) and places it several places ahead of TIPP in his weighted average (in spite of giving TIPP an A- rating).

Once again... we find ourselves in familiar territory. Several pollsters showing Hillary way out in the lead, while you have a several others showing the race very close or even in Trump's favor. The last few times this happened, you saw the large Hillary leads sort of fall back into line with those polls that have more consistently shown a close race.

No promises this will happen again over the next three weeks here... I have a feeling that you will continue to see the multiple polling realities. I fully expect to continue to see polls showing a wide Clinton lead, polls showing a small Clinton lead, and polls showing a small Trump lead. At the end of the day, there is going to be many pollsters with egg on their face.


* Personally I would never include an unknown poll that admits to using the demographics of all adults as their basis for gathering a sample. Even if they only poll registered voters. At least not until we have an idea how their polling turns out.

135 comments:

Anonymous said...

At the end of the day, there is going to be many pollsters with egg on their face.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

just like in 2004 when major msm outlets were quick to call the election for lurch based upon exit polling rather than actual election results.

they looked like idiots then, and they look worse now.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Here is some more irony.

Your friend over at electionprojection.com, whose objectivity you have lauded, still has Clinton at 351 electoral votes.

Nate Silver thinks Clinton probably finished Trump off last night,*
----and he's doing about everything he can to finish himself off today. :-)
____________
*
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finished-off-trump-last-night/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

More and more Trump is fueling the suspicion that he has completely given up on winning and just wants to start a TRUMP TV network that should succeed in keeping the GOP out of the White House far into the future.

Fox News turned out to be a disappointment to him, you see.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Here's one reason why:

Chris Wallace did Fox proud
The first moderator in the news network's 20-year history was 'fair and balanced' but tough on Clinton and unintimidated by Trump.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/chris-wallace-debate-trump-clinton-230069#ixzz4NeoGIwUP

C.H. Truth said...

Nate Silver watched a different debate.

There were two focus groups I saw last night of undecided voters. Both had more people saying that Trump won the debate than Clinton... and that he was more persuasive in garnering their vote.

Even the Clinton News Network poll that showed Clinton winning (ahem) had a small plurality of undecided people saying they were more likely to vote for Trump after that debate than were more likely to vote for Clinton.

Nate Silver is part of the conventional wisdom that deemed the race already over (void of some major event) about two weeks ago... What's amazing to me is that these same people who have gotten Donald Trump "wrong" over and over and over... still act as if he should be listening to their advice. When he does not do what they believe he should, they write his obit.

Maybe they are right. Time will tell. But Donald Trump made a fool out of my repeated suggestions that his campaign was over (about ten times during the Republican primary). I mean how do you go into South Carolina and attack George W Bush (who had a 90% approval rating with S.C. Republicans) and still win the state going away? How can a guy with half of the GOP establishment attacking him, still be leading in "any" of the National polls this far into it?

I keep saying it over and over... no matter how many times the media declares the race over... gravity keeps pulling Clinton back down to Trump. We'll see if it happens again.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

http://time.com/4538007/presidential-debate-chris-wallace/

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Yep, we shall see. But you can tell that even The Donald is worried now.

C.H. Truth said...

YouGov poll on the debate last night:

When asked to chose only between Clinton and Trump in the 2016 election, 61 percent of undecided and third-party candidates picked Trump after the third debate, versus 39 percent for Clinton.

This could be an encouraging result for Trump, because 9 percent of respondents to YouGov preferred a third-party candidate, or professed themselves undecided. A statistically insignificant number said they did not plan to vote at all.


First of all... a 22 point win with Independents is much more important for a debate result than barely winning a Clinton News Network poll that has been stacked with Democrats since the first poll.

Secondly, there are more than 9% independents and undecideds out there.. meaning they oversampled Democrats and Republicans.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

A majority of viewers polled by CNN declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the final presidential debate on Wednesday night, meaning she topped Donald Trump each of the three times they faced off this election cycle, according to the network’s instant surveys.
Fifty-two percent of debate watchers surveyed immediately after the Las Vegas debate said the Democratic nominee performed better than her opponent, the network reported late Wednesday night. Thirty-nine percent for Trump.

Someone lied about the CNN poll

wphamilton said...

One third of Millennial voters preferred an asteroid strike to having either Trump or Clinton serve as President. About 23% of them would prefer a lottery choice of a random citizen.

Those people probably won't vote, but you can be sure that the reasons they have are shared by vast numbers of millennials, not having such extreme reactions but who will vote, Given that level of disgust, it is literally impossible to predict which of these Millennials will vote, and who they will vote for. The margin of error in ALL of these polls is much higher than is assumed.

KD, said...

WP, that age group , the Millennials are needed more by Hillary then by Trump.

More bad news, blacks are staying home. After record turn out to vote for one of their own, Hillary is not going to get them to come out like they did.

Trump is winning more of the black and Hispanic vote then Romney did.

The minorities are tired of being poor, under educated and taken for granted.

HB, side not, how many times did your kind type on the SOARS blog the following "pResident Bush"?

Your slip is showing dumbass.

KD, WTF was Hillary Thinking, time for more bed rest said...

CHT I know this is way off topic, I will totally understand if you delete this.

Russia has moved it's Flag Ship Air Craft Carrier and 9 other war ships in route to Syria. Hillary was unavailable for Comment IF this too was part of her "Reset".

The Clinton Team also has this to answer for:

"Duterte is in China for a four-day trip seen as confirming his tilt away from Washington and towards Beijing's sphere of influence -- and its deep pockets.

"I announce my separation from the United States," he said to applause at a meeting in the Chinese capital.

"America does not control our lives. Enough bullshit," Philippines' President Rodrigo Duterte

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Wp, this appeared at electoral-vote.com yesterday, i.e., before the debate:
_________________

Millennials Are Starting to Come Around to Clinton

Millennial voters largely supported Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) during the primaries and have an extremely low opinion of Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, many of them have been loath to support their former nemesis Hillary Clinton.

That appears to be slowly changing, as Election Day approaches. A new USA Today/Rock the Vote poll shows that they are moving away from third-party candidates and towards Clinton.

The results are Clinton 68%, Trump 20%, Gary Johnson 8%, and Jill Stein 1%. Among the millennial voters who are planning not to vote at all, the main reason is that they dislike all the candidates. (Tannenbaum)

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

KD SAID: "Trump is winning more of the black and Hispanic vote then Romney did."
_________________________

I remember seeing polling that said the exact opposite of that, so I'm sure you will now provide a link to a poll that supports that statement.

Until then, I shall assume it exists only in your questionable head.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

One indication it is something KD made up is the incorrect English in it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

AND THE BEAT GOES ON...

A 10th Woman Accuses Trump of Inappropriate Touching

The day after Donald Trump said accusations of inappropriate sexual contact with nine women were “totally false,” a new accuser came forward and described an encounter in which she said Trump grabbed her arm and fondled her breast, the New York Times reports.
______________

Republicans In Tough Races Condemn Trump

Prominent Republicans in tough reelection battles spent Thursday blasting Donald Trump for refusing to promise that he would respect the results of the presidential election if he loses,” the Washington Post reports.

“But as of midday, House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) — whose own GOP majorities are at stake because of Trump’s unpopularity — had not commented on the latest statement from Trump about the election’s legitimacy.”

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The Tenth Woman...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/21/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html?_r=0

Be sure to watch the video.

wphamilton said...

"Millennials Are Starting to Come Around to Clinton" - that same poll determined that those voters found Clinton to be "less than human", by a large margin. And that enthusiasm of that group is bottoming out. That poll rather supports my point, James.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

WP, I went back and read the entire article, looking for your claim that the poll 'determined that those voters found Clinton to be "less than human", by a large margin.'

You lied, WP. Here is what the article really said:

'The debates generally helped Clinton. Forty percent say she seemed more presidential, compared to 24% who say she seemed less presidential. By a margin of 15 points, the debates made her seem more rather than less "human."'

You recently asked me to examine my conscience regarding something. Perhaps that is advice you yourself need to take.

Here is a link to the entire article:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/17/millennial-vote-presidential-race-trump-clinton/92136482/

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

And by the way, the "ebbing" enthusiasm of some millennials will perhaps stop ebbing in view of Trump's latest and most blatant debate and post debate statements.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

And here is another excerpt from the article:

'If Clinton has a problem generating enthusiasm among Millennials, Trump faces outright rejection. He trails Clinton by a stunning 48 percentage points among likely voters. Even a third of Republican Millennials don't back him.

'His support among younger voters is now significantly lower than that of any major-party presidential candidate in modern times. He trails even Robert Dole, who hit the low-water mark of 30% in a three-way race against Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1996.'

wphamilton said...

James said, You lied, WP. Here is what the article really said:

Go beyond the first article that you come across, fool, and look at the poll itself.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The real polls show that Hillary Clinton was the winner last night.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finished-off-trump-last-night/
Clinton went into the final presidential debate on Wednesday with a lead of about 7 percentage points over Donald Trump. And according to the only two scientific polls we’ve seen, voters thought that Clinton won the debate. Occasionally, the initial reaction to a debate can differ from the way it’s perceived days later. But in this case, the morning headlines, which focused overwhelmingly on Trump’s refusal to say whether he’ll accept the election results, are potentially worse for Trump than the debate itself. In YouGov’s poll of debate watchers, 68 percent of voters said they think the candidates should pledge to accept the results of the election.
Hillary Clinton won the final presidential debate, topping Donald Trump by a 13-point margin according to a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers, giving Clinton a clean sweep across all three of this year's presidential debates.

Hillary Clinton won the final presidential debate, topping Donald Trump by a 13-point margin according to a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers, giving Clinton a clean sweep across all three of this year's presidential debates.

According to YouGov's post-debate poll, which interviewed 1503 registered voters who watched the debate, Hillary Clinton won the debate against Donald Trump by 49% to 39%. 12% said it was a tie.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/19/post-debate-poll/

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I'm sure you think the Drudge poll is more scientific than CNN and you gov.

The K'putz disease is incurable.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...

I'm sure you think the Drudge poll is more scientific than CNN and you gov.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

i would say it's no less scientific. especially compared to the...

Clinton
News
Network

poll.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/92339110/

Arizona
Clinton 39%
Trump 33.9%

Anonymous said...

Roger Amick said...

The real polls show that Hillary Clinton was the winner last night
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

"real polls" = polls that support your absurd opinions.

like CNN, who has managed to become even more hackish, dishonest and comical than MSDNC. i never thought that possible.

and your buddy nate, who, to fit the liberal narrative and keep his journ0list boner fides intact, reaches deep into his rectum to pull out numbers that favor your queen.

does the queen lady of the cankles win this thing? at this point who knows? the smart money is dismissive of ALL of the polling at this late stage and sit tight until the ultimate poll - the actual election - decides this clusterfuck.

your psychotic and desperate over-emphasis of polling that you can agree with, and your ever-increasing flurry of cut n pastes tells an astute reader that you're panicked at the prospect that trump might just win.

relax and have a drink. it will all be over soon enough.

Commonsense said...

I actually agree with CH that gravity will bring the polls back to the 3-4 percentage point spread.

It's getting to the point in the election where a poll's reputation will depend on how predictive it is with the actual results.

Which means you will not see any widely skewed samples one way or the other.

Commonsense said...

During election night, New Hampshire will be the state to watch.

If they call it early for Clinton, you can go to bed.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Want to have some rollicking good fun?

Go read electoral-vote.com this morning.

I got lots and lots of actual laughs out of it.

Enjoy. :-)

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

SORRY TO SPOIL YOUR BREAKFAST, BUT----

Trump’s Map Is Quickly Shrinking

“Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points or greater in Politico’s Battleground States polling average in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If the Democratic nominee won those six states, plus all the other reliably Democratic states President Barack Obama captured in both 2008 and 2012, she would eclipse the 270-electoral-vote threshold and win the presidency.”

“Even if Trump ran the table in the remaining battleground states — Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — he would fall short of the White House if he cannot flip another state where Clinton currently leads in the polls.”

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

That last was from politicalwire.com today.
The following three are from the same yesterday.
The third one is a real knee slapper.
_____________

Michelle Obama Makes Play for Arizona

“First lady Michelle Obama didn’t even need to say the word ‘Arizona’ for the first 20 minutes of her rally here on Thursday to send shock waves across the state,” Politico reports.

“The very presence of the Democrats’ most coveted surrogate in the traditionally deep-red state was enough to send the message that Hillary Clinton is taking it seriously, and Obama’s appeal to local Democrats just hours after the final debate was designed to make the stakes clear.”
________________

GOP In a Historic State of Turmoil

“A wave of apprehension and anguish swept the Republican Party on Thursday, with many GOP leaders alarmed by Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the election and concluding that it is probably too late to salvage his flailing presidential campaign,” the Washington Post reports.

“As the Republican nominee reeled from a turbulent performance in the final debate here in Las Vegas, his party’s embattled senators and House members scrambled to protect their seats and preserve the GOP’s congressional majorities against what Republicans privately acknowledge could be a landslide victory for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.”
_______________

What If Trump Wasn’t a Nut?

Peggy Noonan:
“The Republican Party will now begin the long process of redefining itself or continue its long national collapse. This is an epochal event. It happened because Donald Trump intuited where things were and are going.

“Since I am more in accord with Mr. Trump’s stands than not, I am particularly sorry that as an individual human being he’s a nut.

“Which gives rise to a question, for me a poignant one. What if there had been a Sane Donald Trump?

“Oh my God, Sane Trump would have won in a landslide.”
___________
Ah, but to have gotten a sane Trump, you would have needed to invent a sane GOP.

Anonymous said...

It's getting to the point in the election where a poll's reputation will depend on how predictive it is with the actual results.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

that would be nice but the cynic in me says otherwise. folks these days have the attention span of a toddler, and the memory of a blackout drunk. e.g. - CH has repeatedly illustrated just how wrong nate silver has been historically, yet the left continues to praise him as some sort of polling genius. nate's number come straight from his ass, but his way with words in his commentary surrounding those numbers has made believers out of fools.

imho the polls at this point are for shit no matter how vigorously you polish the turd.*

*h/t van jones

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Even Sean Hannity is admitting he has to be honest and say:
Things are not looking good for The Donald.

Poor, poor little rodent. I almost feel sorry for you.
Almost.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Funny that you mention van Jones, Rat.

Here's something he said in September:

"Well, she's got to do something. I mean, part of the thing is, Trump has mastered the art of being authentically inauthentic, right? Everyone knows he's kind of, you know, engaging in hyperbole and sarcasm or whatever, and so they, for some reason, decide to just discount him and let him say just whatever he wants to say and call him honest."

He then added:

"Meanwhile, it actually turns out that Hillary Clinton, when you look at the fact checkers, she's one of the most honest politicians in America, according to the fact checkers. So there's a disconnect there that she's going to have to deal with."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The blogmeister at electionprojection.com is an evangelical who is definitely conservative, but is lauded by Ch and others for his objectivity.

His current presidential prediction (as of yesterday):

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

Commonsense said...

Want to have some rollicking good fun?

Go read electoral-vote.com this morning.


April can't come fast enough.

Commonsense said...

I don't see how Nate Silver's reputation could survive a Trump victory.

If Clinton wins however, he has another four year lease.

Loretta said...

"April can't come fast enough."

Exactly.

As it stands now...

James and Roger will continue to spam.

OPIE will still troll.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Trump Bombs at Charity Dinner

“What began as the expected ribbing of candidates in the midst of a presidential campaign turned to boos as Donald Trump described Hillary Clinton as ‘corrupt’ and delved into some Wikileaks-based jokes that sounded more like something you’d hear at a Trump rally rather than an annual dinner hosted by the Archdiocese of New York,” NBC News reports.

Washington Post:
“At charity roast, Donald Trump delivered what might as well be a campaign eulogy.”

First Read:
“Folks, it takes a lot of work to get booed at a charity dinner. All of Trump’s flaws were on display — the inability to laugh at himself, his inability to play to a crowd where not everyone is an adoring fan, and his inability to wear a poker face. When you combine Trump’s dinner performance with his call to accept the election results IF he wins, it’s going to be a long 18 days until Election Day.”
_____________
By contrast, Hillary was lighthearted and really funny.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Steele Won’t Vote for Trump

Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele said he won’t vote for Donald Trump, BuzzFeed reports.

Steele said Trump has “captured the racist underbelly, that frustration, that angry underbelly of American life and gave voice to that.”

He added: “I was damn near puking during the debates.”

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Quote of the Day
“The Republican Party must reform or die. Because if it stays on its current course, George W. Bush’s fear may be proven right. He may be the last Republican ever elected to the White House.”
— MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, quoted by the Washington Post.
________

But the chances of that happening don't look good:
_______

Can the Republican Party Rebuild?

Charlie Cook:
“Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to contemplate the consequences of handing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party movement and watching as the quintessential tea partier, Donald Trump, drove the car over a cliff…

“When I talk to smart Republican leaders and strategists, they have a very good idea of what their party’s problems are, and they know what needs to be done. But my colleague Amy Walter recently reminded us of a great line by former House Speaker John Boehner:
'A leader without followers is simply a man taking a walk.'

"Republican leaders are faced with a party in which about half of its members believe that compromise is a four-letter word and hold some pretty exotic views of what this country is and where it is headed—views that are very different FROM WHERE THE COUNTRY ACTUALLY IS AND WHERE IT IS GOING.”
__________

Emphasis added. I put these things here out of the goodness of my heart, to help you rebuild your party into one that can honorably and realistically engage in democratic political processes again.

You're welcome.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

watch hillary clinton tease donald at charity dinner

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-al-smith-dinner_us_58095feae4b0cdea3d869a80

Myballs said...

10 of the last 14 posts are from james. Again.

I am getting tired if wading through all of his spin and spam on every thread i open.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

"real polls" = polls that support your absurd opinions.

like CNN, who has managed to become even more hackish, dishonest and comical than MSDNC. i never thought that possible.

and your buddy nate, who, to fit the liberal narrative and keep his journ0list boner fides intact, reaches deep into his rectum to pull out numbers that favor your queen.

does the queen lady of the cankles win this thing? at this point who knows? the smart money is dismissive of ALL of the polling at this late stage and sit tight until the ultimate poll - the actual election - decides this clusterfuck.

your psychotic and desperate over-emphasis of polling that you can agree with, and your ever-increasing flurry of cut n pastes tells an astute reader that you're panicked at the prospect that trump might just win.

relax and have a drink. it will all be over soon enough.


The work of a real genius.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

BALLS: I am getting tired if wading through all of his spin and spam on every thread i open.
_________

JAMES: Contribute something of significance and substance, then.
It's quite easy to skip over my name, written in blue, if you wish.
______

I just watched both videos, that of Clinton and that of Trump, at the Catholic Charity dinner.

I thought Hillary's speech was really far superior and was certainly received far better.

But I also thought Trump got off some good, amusing zingers.

The only thing that surprised me was this: I would have thought his campaign would have read through his script and advised him to drop some of those that got him roundly booed.

Hillary certainly had more fun.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

“We all know that it happens on the margins, but it’s the extreme margins and probably as much on one side as the other. And so the notion that it affects election results, particularly in a presidential race, is just absurd.”
— Sen. Jeff Flake (R), in an interview with NBC News, on Donald Trump’s allegations that voter fraud could cause him to lose the election.

KD, "Crushing Cost" of ObimboCare said...

Anonymous Myballs said...
10 of the last 14 posts are from james. Again.

I am getting tired if wading through all of his spin and spam on every thread i open."

I agree, then we get HB non-sense and 4 more post from Jane, put the filter back on.

Putin is securing Syria, that state is Lost to them, a very good job done by Hillary and that funny little re-set thingy. What happened to Obama's Red Line?

The fact that Blacks, Hispanics and Millennials are trending to Trump is great news for this Nation.


The crushing cost of ObamaCare has caused my Insurance Company to stop policies in those Exchanges for 2017.

My Company was rewarded with a higher stock price after making that announcement more then a year ago.

Stock Price at the time of the announcement :
$116.11
Today a much Healthier Company
$145.07
UnitedHealth Group Inc

TRUMP: She (Hillary) Asked Me To 'Pardon' Her..."

Commonsense said...

I thought Hillary's speech was really far superior

There's a shock. James I don't believe I ever heard you utter one word of criticism of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

And God knows there is plenty of be critical about, even from a progressive point of view.

But I guess that's the diffrence between punditry (which is what CH does) and hackery which is what you do.

Commonsense said...

If Trump does win, this guy is going to become an instant celebrity.

SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk

Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Commensa, if you asked a large number of real independents to vote on whether Hillary or Donald did the best speech, they would surely vote for Hillary. Not only that, but some Trump supporters would reluctantly admit that she did a better job.

Even you, biased as you are, could probably agree with that if you were to look at both.

Commonsense said...

If I asked a large number of real independents to vote they would most likely not have a clue to what I was talking about.

They don't live or die by politics.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I meant, dummy, assuming that if you had a large number of indys in a room and you showed them both videos.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

One outlier is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University. His model takes into account sentiment for a change in parties, but most important, and unusual, is his reliance on performance by the major-party candidates during the early presidential primaries, in this case New Hampshire and South Carolina. On that basis, he predicted last spring that Trump would win the election and said the prediction came with an 87 percent certainty.

When I spoke with Norpoth a few days ago, he was admittedly nervous. “I do worry. . . . I’m clearly sort of the odd man out,” he said. But, he added, “it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’s [Trump] going down the tubes.”
______________________
I read that his model correctly predicts (retroactively) the outcome of every presidential election since 1912 "except one" -- that of 1960.

I predict that will eventually read, "except two."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

In the interest of full disclosure, the article excerpted above appeared Sept. 4, I believe. I should think Dr. Norpoth might be even more "nervous" now.

Commonsense said...

I meant, dummy, assuming that if you had a large number of indys(sic) in a room and you showed them both videos.

I imagine most people would have the same impression as Joe Concha did:

Al Smith Dinner I attended was different than one I read about

But as The Guardian described and my notes show, Clinton got some booing of her own. Not with the vitriol and volume Trump's detractors displayed, but it was apparent.

The Guardian listed these jokes under a section called: "Some of Clinton’s would-be zingers elicited a mixture of laughter and booing":

Clinton: "You notice there is no teleprompters here tonight, which is probably smart, because it may be you saw Donald ... dismantle his own. Maybe it is harder when you are translating from the original Russian."

Clinton: "I have deep respect for people like Kellyanne Conway. She is working day and night for Donald, and because she is a contractor, he is probably not even going to pay her."

And this one under a one-joke section called, "And awkward is the word for this Clinton line":

Clinton: "If Donald does win, it will be awkward at the annual presidents’ day photo when all the former presidents gather at the White House, and not just with Bill. How is Barack going to get past the Muslim ban?"

USA Today summed up the evening thusly with this accurate headline:

"Trump, Clinton draw laughs, boos at Al Smith dinner"

Piers Morgan, formerly of CNN, summed matters up nicely on Twitter:

When they go low, we go as low...
Hillary just as personal & mean as Trump. But media already whacking him not her.


When you're not a sycophant James, the world looks far different.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

LOL
The negative reaction toward Trump was far, far stronger than that toward Clinton.

He went over the line several more times than she did. Worse, he looked like a spoil sport who was not really doing it in good fun.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

WOW.

https://politicalwire.com/2016/10/21/captain-khan/

Beautifully done...

Commonsense said...

And considering who was at the dinner last night you're surprised?

Can you say hack?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

David Duke Qualifies for Senate Debate

Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke has qualified for a televised debate in Louisiana’s Senate race after a new poll showed him drawing 5 percent of the vote, Politico reports.

Anonymous said...

The work of a real genius.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

compared to you i'm the second coming of einstein.

you're the one who has fallen for all of the manufactured hysteria from the media geared towards low information voters who are getting the vapors over trumps comments about accepting the results of the election.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

1:32 Catholics, you mean?

But anyone would recognize good taste as opposed to really bad taste.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Lots of Republicans seem to have been "getting the vapors," from the first moment the words were uttered.

Commonsense said...

Democrats, rich wall street bankers, and media I mean.

Stop being obtuse and be mature for once.

Anonymous said...



hey child molester,

you left out the best part:

"Duke, a white supremacist, announced he was running late this summer, saying GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump had inspired him and drawn more followers to his cause. Other Republicans in the state have disavowed him and the Republican National Committee and Louisiana GOP explored booting him out of the party."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

But he's running as a Republican. They only "explored" booting him out, the cowards.

Don't wantta lose those white supremacist votes, you know.

Anonymous said...

I thought Hillary's speech was really far superior
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

is the taste of her ass superior to 0linsky's?



Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Could he help give the Dems a Senate seat?

Commonsense said...

This is the ghoul you want to elect president James.

No Fact-Checkers Can Cover For Hillary Clinton’s Ghastly Abortion Views

How do you “beat” abortion—how do you ultimately convince enough people it is an indefensible practice that should not, in any civilized society, be legal? You do so by exposing it to the light of day, in the same way that was done with, say, slavery, or civil rights abuses. The great liberation movements of the past knew how to use effective exposure to get their messages across.

The pro-life movement need not necessarily use photographs to transmit its worldview (although I think there are times when it’s appropriate). Rather, the most salient and effective tools in the pro-life arsenal are the cold, hard facts about abortion: it is a medical procedure that kills innocent human beings.

No serious person can deny this in any meaningful way. The only response that the pro-abortion movement can muster is to lapse into confused quack philosophy regarding the matter of “personhood.” For all practical legal purposes, pro-choicers generally put forth the same legal argument as did the majority in Dred Scott v. Sandford. Quite a legacy.

Donald Trump Gave Us a Good Example
Then there is the good rhetorical tool of simple, forceful language. Proving that even he can get something right every now and then, Donald Trump gave a great example of this at the final presidential debate this week, criticizing Hillary Clinton’s position on infanticide: “Well, I think it’s terrible. If you go with what Hillary is saying, in the ninth month, you can take the baby and rip the baby out of the womb of the mother just prior to the birth of the baby.”

This is indeed the case: under Clinton’s proposed abortion regime, it would be entirely legal to “rip the baby out of the womb of the mother just prior to the birth of the baby.” She has personally defended partial-birth abortion in the past.

As Hillary put it when pressed on late-term abortions, “there can be restrictions in the very end of the third trimester,” but this is clearly a cowardly and meaningless evasion: Clinton carefully avoiding saying there should be restrictions at the very end of the third trimester. She also asserted the restrictions have to take into account “the life and health of the mother,” but as abortion activist Ron Fitzsimmons demonstrated years ago, late-term abortions were performed with great frequency on “healthy women bearing healthy fetuses.”

This is how abortion “exceptions” generally work. The “health of the mother” is broadened to cover just about every possible consideration, and it becomes an effectively toothless qualifier. Hillary knows this.


And she had the nerve to attend a dinner for children charities.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

First Read comments on the Ghoul and Donald at the Charity Dinner:
__________________

Donald Trump is being slammed over election result comment and 'mean' Al Smith dinner jokes

AL SMITH DINNER SUMS UP THE STATE OF THE 2016 CAMPAIGN

Yes, it was just the charity Al Smith Dinner in New York, but it said so much about the current state of the 2016 campaign -- especially about Donald Trump. As our colleague Steve Kornacki described it on "Today" this morning, you had two unpopular presidential candidates speaking, yet one was much, much worse in his performance.

"What began as the expected ribbing of candidates in the midst of a presidential campaign turned to boos as Donald Trump described Hillary Clinton as 'corrupt' and delved into some Wikileaks-based jokes that sounded more like something you'd hear at a Trump rally rather than an annual dinner hosted by the Archdiocese of New York," NBC's Ali Vitali and Monica Alba write about last night's dinner.

Folks, it takes a lot of work to get booed at a charity dinner. All of Trump's flaws were on display -- the inability to laugh at himself, his inability to play to a crowd where not everyone is an adoring fan, and his inability to wear a poker face. When you combine Trump's dinner performance with his call to accept the election results IF he wins, it's going to be a long 18 days until Election Day.

The Washington Post summed up the dinner this way: "At charity roast, Donald Trump delivered what might as well be a campaign eulogy." Ouch.

BUT MORE TOUCHING MOMENTS WEREN'T CAUGHT ON MICROPHONE

That said, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, who sat in between Clinton and Trump at last night's dinner, appeared on "Today" and described some touching moments that weren't caught on microphone.

"After the little prayer, Mr. Trump turned to Secretary Clinton and said, 'You are one tough and talented woman,' Dolan said.

"Clinton then returned the compliment. 'She said to him, "Donald, whatever happens we need to work together afterward,"' Dolan said."

Anonymous said...


asshole, if the GOP boots duke, they expose themselves to a lawsuit. one they probably lose and lose badly. i find it interesting that you would like to see duke cash in by bringing an expensive suit.

his support is 5%. fucking with him is a waste of time.

only a complete fuckwit would dwell on it.

Anonymous said...

This is the ghoul you want to elect president James.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

a ghoul and a moron -

CNN: Military Not Happy With Clinton Talking About Nuclear Launch Times

CNN’s Barbara Starr reported Thursday that the U.S. military is unhappy with Hillary Clinton discussing nuclear weapon launch times during Wednesday night’s presidential debate, calling such information “extremely classified.”

Clinton said during the debate there is a period of approximately four minutes from a presidential order to launch nuclear weapons to when the launch occurs. Her campaign also tweeted her comment.

When the president gives the order to launch a nuclear weapon, that’s it. The officer has to launch. It can take as little as four minutes.

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) October 20, 2016

Starr reported that the Pentagon would not officially comment on Clinton’s remarks since they occurred during a political campaign. However, many officials who spoke to Starr off-camera said they were not happy with Clinton’s comments due to the secure nature of what she was discussing.

“We went to the military this morning and asked them. A military spokesman told us that they do not discuss operational timelines for launching nuclear weapons,” Starr said. “This is some of the most classified information. I asked Defense Secretary Ash Carter at a press conference earlier today. He declined to answer the question because it involved politics.”

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/cnn-military-not-happy-clinton-talking-about-nuclear-launch-times/

Anonymous said...

Abedin described the arrangement in the email as having been organized by her boss. Hillary Clinton “created this mess and she knows it,” she told Podesta and Mook.
She said the Moroccan deal was entirely dreamed up by her boss. “This was HRC’s idea, our office approached the Moroccans and they 100 percent believe they are doing this at her request. The King has personally committed approx. $12 million both for the endowment and to support the meeting.” HRC stands for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Abedin said Clinton’s attendance at the CGI event was a condition of the $12 million contribution. “Just to give you some context, the condition upon which the Moroccans agreed to host the meeting was her participation. If hrc was not part if it, meeting was a non-starter,” Abedin said.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/20/wikileaks-hillary-got-12-million-for-clinton-charity-as-quid-pro-quo-for-morocco-meeting/

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

David Duke (R)

caliphate4vr said...

only a complete fuckwit would dwell on it.

That's the pederast

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Among the people weighing in after the debate who were able to assess the rumor and rate it was nuclear security expert Joe Cirincione, who issued two tweets about the controversy — one explicitly stating that Clinton did not disclose classified information and another reiterating that the information was already widely known and often cited.

http://www.snopes.com/clinton-four-minute-nuclear/

Anonymous said...



snopes is dead to me, child molester.

they're on team cankles. just like politi"fact hack."

Anonymous said...

David Duke (R)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

KKK GRAND FUCKING KLEAGLE robert byrd (D)


i win.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Rodent, you are a riot.

How could you "win" with a man who repented ever having played politics as a Klansman and was elected numerous times with substantial numbers of black voters backing him?

Anonymous said...



repented, eh?

his use of the 'n' word on tv was a strange way to show it.

he 'repented' kinda like teddy "the lecherous murdering drunk" kennedy repented when ol ted (as he was dying) gave 0linsky a letter to give to the pope begging not to be sent to hell.

caliphate4vr said...

Under 4% of W VA is black you fucking stupid old man

Commonsense said...

How could you "win" with a man who repented ever having played politics as a Klansman

How would you know? After all with Democrats there is a "public and private position".

Myballs said...

Obama's pastor, Reverend God damn America (D)

What is your point?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Soon after Obama became Senator, he visited Byrd in his office at Byrd's invitation. Sitting there, Byrd told him personally how sorry he was for his earlier stance.

Obama said we all need forgiveness. Byrd autographed and gave Obama several of his books.

Byrd had declared his change already many times in his career. How else could he have been elected if blacks had not become convinced that he had changed?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous caliphate4vr said...
Under 4% of W VA is black you fucking stupid old man
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ALL of the left's "narratives" are total lies.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

snopes is dead to me, child molester.
_____________

And is nuclear security expert Joe Cirincione "dead" to you, Rat?

And how about Foreign Policy magazine? Is it "dead" to you too?
__________

from snopes:

"An alternative method of determining whether Clinton inadvertently disclosed classified information about nuclear protocols would be to verify if that information was already publicly known and open discussed. Indeed, on August 5, 2016 Foreign Policy magazine published an article about that very subject with a subhead that openly proclaimed it:
___
OUR NUCLEAR PROCEDURES ARE CRAZIER THAN TRUMP:
U.S. Presidents are currently given a four minute window to decide whether or not to initiate an irreversible apocalypse. Sad!
______________

I for one don't want El Trumpo anywhere near those codes or that button.

Anonymous said...

Byrd autographed and gave Obama several of his books.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

including:

'the KKK guide to proper lynching"

"noose tying for beginners"

"the KKK style guide - be the best dressed klansman at your next cross burning"

"1001 n*gger jokes"

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

From Wiki, for you haters:

Late in his life, Byrd explicitly renounced his earlier views favoring racial segregation. Byrd said that he regretted filibustering and voting against the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and would change it if he had the opportunity. He said joining the KKK was "the greatest mistake I ever made." Byrd also said that his views changed dramatically after his teenage grandson was killed in a 1982 traffic accident, which put him in a deep emotional valley. "The death of my grandson caused me to stop and think," said Byrd, adding he came to realize that African-Americans love their children as much as he does his...

For the 2003–2004 session, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP)[64] rated Byrd's voting record as being 100% in line with the N.A.A.C.P.'s position on the thirty-three Senate bills they evaluated. Sixteen other senators received that rating.

In June 2005, Byrd proposed an additional $10,000,000 in federal funding for the Martin Luther King, Jr. National Memorial in Washington, D.C., remarking that, "With the passage of time, we have come to learn that his Dream was the American Dream, and few ever expressed it more eloquently."

Upon news of his death, the NAACP released a statement praising Byrd, saying that he "became a champion for civil rights and liberties" and "came to consistently support the NAACP civil rights agenda".

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I win.

Anonymous said...

How else could he have been elected if blacks had not become convinced that he had changed?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

oh i don't know.

maybe because, as cali pointed out, blacks on comprise 4% of west virginians?

in other words genius, every one of them could've stayed home every six years and he STILL would've been elected.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Well gosh, I had forgotten, if I ever knew, that the black population of WV was'is THAT low. So let me revise me statement:

How else could he have been elected and reelected without strong black resistance if blacks had not become convinced that he had changed"

So convinced that he was awarded a 100% voting record approval by the NAACP.

I still win. :-)

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

FRIDAY POLL ROUNDUP
Indiana: Trump 43%, Clinton 37%, Johnson 9% (Ball State)
Utah: Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton 25%, Johnson 5% (Dan Jones & Assoc)
Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 33%, Johnson 8% (Christopher Newport University)
Georgia: Trump 44%, Clinton 42%, Johnson 9% (Atlanta Journal Constitution)
Georgia: Trump 47%, Clinton 43%, Johnson 5% (Landmark)
Georgia: Trump 50%, Clinton 46%, Johnson 3% (Opinion Savvy)
Florida: Clinton 49%, Trump 45%, Johnson 3% (Opinion Savvy)
Maine: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9% (Maine Peoples Resource Center)
Iowa: Clinton 41%, Trump 37%, Johnson 10% (Lucid)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 47%, Trump 38%, Johnson 7% (Lucid)
Ohio: Clinton 44%, Trump 39%, Johnson 7% (Lucid)

Of course, all those giving Hillary a lead are rigged.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Clinton Transition Team Steps Up Work

“The secretive team tasked with preparing for a possible Hillary Clinton presidency is ramping up big time,” Politico reports.

“With polls pointing to the likelihood of a Clinton win, her transition team is hiring staff, culling through the resumés of possible Cabinet nominees and reaching out to key Democrats for input, according to people familiar with the process.”
_____________

I even got a letter asking me what color I thought the drapes in the Oval Office should be.

KD, O'Hillary Epic Failure said...

Pre Hillary's Reset with her dearest friends the Russians.

Putin has completed his move of Naval Assets to Defend Syria and the Leader of that Nation.

Where exactly did Putin cross Obama's Red Line and now what will the feckless dopie pResident do now.

I am going with he goes Golfing.

KD said...

No matter is your are a Conservative, Inddy, or Progress your number one ISSUE is this weak ass economy.

"“WikiLeaks: Donna Brazile admits 'despair' of 'low wage jobs' and the Obama economy"

When we look behind the curtain , we get to know what the Progressive really think about this economy.

Two faced on ever issue, One Face in Public , On Face in Private, Hillary confirmed in the debate it is required for Progressives to win.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: Trump had a really good night, but here, the consensus is right. He blew it up by a totally wrong answer on accepting results. In some sense, I almost admire him for it. This was not a gaffe where you say something off the cuff and it's what you think, but it's wrong. You know that he had been coached on this. You know that his vice president had said off course, we'll accept the result and his campaign manager and daughter. And you know that he's convinced that this is something you wants to take a stand on.

This is political suicide. Because what is his task tonight? His task tonight was to stop the slide. The slide had to do with people who are grudgingly going over to Clinton who don't want to, who have held down for a year. But for three weeks said I can't have Trump. This is his opportunity to show them. They're not going to change their views on Clinton, but if they can change their views on Trump, to make him less toxic and acceptable as president, and less radical, yes, they want a change agent. They think the country is one the wrong track, but they don't want a radical that will challenge that foundations of the republic. Yes, you criticize conditions, you're going to change Washington etc. but you don't challenge the legitimacy of an election and holdup the prospect of actual nonacceptance. And when he did that, I think it was a terrible mistake.

As I said.

opie said...

as cali pointed out, blacks on comprise 4%

Of course cali knows the % of blacks in WV. Something as esoteric as that is right in pauline wheel house and really does not add anything to but impressive knowledge of useless information. LOL

opie said...

rrb said...
snipes is dead to me, child molester.
they're on team candles. just like politi"fact hack."

Nice to see another dumbass republicon' who thinks facts are just interesting. No wonder why your side is getting their collective asses kicked. I bet you believe there is rampant voter fraud in all elections. LOL.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

No, Cali is correct that blacks comprise less than 4% of the population of WV, and it WAS important to what I was saying.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Hillary's New Ad Calls Out Trump for Ties to Conspiracy Theorist Alex Jones

Hillary Clinton ✔ @HillaryClinton
Where does Trump get his talking points from? Often this alt-right conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones. (Watch all the way to the end.)

A new ad from the Hillary Clinton campaign is calling attention to Donald Trump's close ties to radio host and notorious conspiracy theorist Alex Jones.

The one-minute, 18-second ad features Jones - whose show Trump has appeared on - arguing that 9/11 was an "inside job" and that the Sandy Hook school shooting was "completely fake with actors."
____________________
He also believes the moon landing was faked.

Alex Jones -- Donald Trump
two loose cannons
two nutcases

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/17/watch-new-hillary-clinton-ad-ties-donald-trump-to-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones/

Myballs said...

So Obama insists on relinquishing control of the internet and in only three weeks the new controlling company gets hacked and we get major web blackouts across the US.

Another brilliant move by the most failed president in history.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Another brilliant move by the most failed president in history,

Saddam Hussein has WMD.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Good morning, Troothers. I apologize for the considerable gloating over there at electoral-vote.com this morning.

I also apologize for the following belly laugh, but I just can't help myself:
______________

Trump to Speak at Gettysburg

It's been four score and seven days since Donald Trump last led in national polls (July 26, the first day of the DNC). Things have turned against him since then, and—in an attempt to right the ship—he will deliver a speech on Saturday that will lay out his plan for the first 100 days of a Trump presidency.

The address will be given in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. Reportedly, that was the site of another prominent speech by a politician, but our researchers are still working on that. It may have involved something about grabbing the Confederacy by the p***y. In any case, it should be interesting, given how much Trump has promised to do on just his first day in office, much less his first 100 days. Whatever The Donald is planning, presumably the theme will not be "all men are created equal." (Bates)
___________
So solly. :-)

Commonsense said...

So convinced that he was awarded a 100% voting record approval by the NAACP.

Which speaks more to the moral bankruptcy of the NAACP than anything else.

This is the same NAACP who just voted to oppose charter schools, choice programs, and other education innovations that would greatly benefit black children.

Just to appease the white liberal education establishment.

So who's the real Uncle Tom?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

At the time the NAACP awarded him, the emphasis was mostly on civil rights for blacks.
_____________

Two more nuggets from electoral-vote.com:

Richard Branson Describes a Tale of Two Lunches

Billionaire Richard Branson, the founder of the Virgin Group, which controls 400 companies, yesterday wrote that several years ago, Donald Trump, who he had never met, invited him to Trump's apartment in Manhattan for lunch. The entire time, all Trump talked about was how he wanted to destroy five people who refused to help him after his most recent bankruptcy. Branson was afraid Trump was going to ask him for money, which would have made him #6, but he didn't.

Branson also talked about the lunch he had with Hillary Clinton. They discussed education reform, the war on drugs, women's rights, conflicts around the world, and the death penalty. Branson said she listened in addition to talking. Branson is now supporting Clinton, saying that the president has to be involved with world issues, not with petty personal quarrels. (Bates)
_________

Senate Starting to Look Brighter for Democrats

The battle for the Senate is one of the few bright spots for the Republicans this year, but at the moment it is looking a little less bright. Our current prediction is for 50 Democrats (including the two indepenents who caucus with the Democrats), 47 Republicans. Three states are tied: Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida. Even if the Republicans win all three, the Democrats will control the Senate if Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) gets a promotion to president of the Senate. While Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is still favored to get another term in a job he detests, North Carolina is a true tossup. Also, we currently have Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) leading in Pennsylvania, but many slightly older polls have put challenger Katie McGinty ahead there. (Tannenbaum)

Commonsense said...

Really? That would be ironic since he lead the filibuster against the civil rights act.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I'm just too much of a Christian to keep hitting a man when he is down, so I will just call your attention to THREE headlines at politicalwire.com FROM YESTERDAY:

Clinton Begins Battleground Blitz

Early Voting Shows Upsurge in Women*

Trump is in a Funk
____________
*Trump has repelled women. Now they are repelling him.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

***Really? That would be ironic since he lead the filibuster against the civil rights act.***
_____________
Ancient history, Commensa. Go up there and read my 3:34PM from yesterday again.

Commonsense said...

Really? the most important event for American equality since the end of slavery is just "ancient history".

You really are an ignorant sycophant.

Commonsense said...

He makes a valid point about the media but I'm not as optimistic about Trump winning the election as he is. Trump's troubles are largely due to his own mouth. People ignore what the media write or present but they don't ignore was Trump himself said.

The Roof Blows Off the Echo Chamber

There's no way to tell what people think. It's impossible for most Americans to form a judgment with which they feel comfortable, because they do not have sources of information they can trust. Fox News is in a civil war between the pro- and anti-Trump Republicans. The other networks are with Hillary. The major media outlets have lost credibility. Only 32% of Americans said they had "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of confidence in the news media in a September Gallup poll survey. That's the lowest level in history, and should be no surprise: the major media has to spin a new cover-up every couple of days, before it is finished putting the previous set of lies to bed.

That's why Americans don't simply watch the nightly news and go to bed. They read the rumors on the Internet and circulate them to their friends. They create networks of people they trust in the hope of obtaining an accurate account of what is happening around them.

That's why I'm still calling this election for Donald J. Trump. The polls are meaningless. Perceptions are morphing as rapidly as the new-model Terminator in the molten steel vat at the end of the movie. The election will be won and lost a dozen times between now and Election Day. And when Americans finally go into the voting booth, they will not be able to think of any reasons to vote for Hillary Clinton--only reasons to vote against Donald Trump. There are far more compelling reasons to vote against Clinton. And that's how the election will go.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Is someone going to be DEVASTATED again?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Someone's tweet:
So many times Trump has been left to sink a put from 6 inches and she says something and he takes out a 5 iron and whacks the ball into a bunker.

Fit to be President? I don't think so.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

LOL, "ancient history" in the sense that Byrd WAS a racist, but moved on.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Breitbart Steps Up War Against Paul Ryan

Breitbart News, a right-wing website closely tied to Donald Trump’s campaign, is escalating its war against Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) to new levels with a lead story headlined: “He’s with her: Inside Paul Ryan’s months-long campaign to elect Hillary Clinton president.”

Taeggan Goddard: Paul Ryan Has a Really Big Trump Problem
___________

New Trump Hotels Ditching Name

“Amidst reports that occupancy rates at Trump Hotels have slipped this election season, the company has announced that new brand hotels will no longer bear the Trump name,” Travel & Leisure reports.

“The newest line of luxury hotels, geared towards millennials, will be called Scion.”
__________
Calling all self-respecting women!
--Boycott Scion.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Clinton Goes for a Sweep of the Swing States

“Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her campaign on Friday, working to ensure a victory that is decisive enough to earn a mandate for her presidency and a surge of voters to help Democrats win congressional races,” the New York Times reports.

“Emerging from a nine-day absence from the trail, Mrs. Clinton seized on the momentum of her performance in the final presidential debate, choosing Ohio — a battleground state where she has struggled the most against Donald J. Trump — as her first stop on a four-day swing. With new polls showing Mrs. Clinton closing in on Mr. Trump in the state, her campaign is glimpsing the opportunity for a clean sweep of traditional swing states.”
____________
Chariot's A-Coming!

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Just Half of Republicans Would Accept Clinton

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that only half of Republicans would accept Hillary Clinton as their president. And if she wins, nearly 70% said it would be because of illegal voting or vote rigging.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Even if Trump decisively loses, things could remain very, very bad:

http://time.com/4540101/sequel-to-donald-trump-campaign/?xid=homepage

(Because of the GOP's Trumpian style insanity.)

opie said...

nearly 70% said it would be because of illegal voting or vote rigging.

Can't fix massive stupidity.....just look at the examples set here where facts are merely annoyances.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

An excerpt from
TRUMP THE ANTI=AMERICAN

ww.nytimes.com/2016/10/22/opinion/trump-the-anti-american.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
_____________

...this in the end is all that Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for the highest office in the land, has had to offer America: his shallow, manipulative, self-important, scapegoat-seeking form of rage.

Over the three debates with Hillary Clinton it became clear that this businessman who says he wants to make America great again in fact wants to make America shrink into a defensive crouch of resentment. Trump was small in the debates. He was as small as the America he seems to envisage. He was mean, nasty, petty and lazy. Smallness oozed from his petulant pout; it was all that would fit between those pursed lips. Any target was good for this showman whose ego is so consuming that he is utterly without conviction: Mexicans, Muslims, women, the disabled, war heroes, and, in the end, American democracy itself, for which he showed contempt in suggesting he might contest the outcome of an election that he contends, without the slightest shred of evidence, might be “rigged.”

The America of “Sure” is a stranger to Trump. His is the angry America of “shove it.” If that frustrated, tribal and incensed America were not lurking in a time of disorienting economic upheaval, Trump would not have garnered millions of votes. He has held up a mirror to a troubled and divided society. That, I suppose, is some form of service. But the deeper, decent, direct, can-do America is stronger; and for that America the Trump now visible in all his aspects is simply unfit for high office. He would threaten to undo what America is.

Of all the sentences written about Trump over many, many months now, my favorite is the last one in the letter sent this month by The New York Times lawyer David McCraw to Trump’s lawyer. Trump had demanded the retraction of an article about two women who had come forward to describe the way he had groped them. The women’s accounts, McCraw argued, constituted newsworthy information of public concern, and he concluded: “If Mr. Trump disagrees, if he believes that American citizens had no right to hear what these women had to say and that the law of this country forces us and those who would dare to criticize him to stand silent or be punished, we welcome the opportunity to have a court set him straight.”

Sure, we’ll see you in court.

Sure, America is a country that, despite its “original sin” of racism, elected a black man.

Sure, America will elect a woman as president.

Sure, this land was made for you and me.
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Amen!

KD, Trump Lead Increases, said...

Clinton Foundation Paid Women LESS Than Men..."

Nothing about HER---> is the truth.



Blacks and Hispanics shifting to Trump.

KD, Hillary Loves Fracking In Pvt said...

this land was made for you and me."

The anthem of Socialist, I am not at all surprised that JaneBaked would post it here.

KD, US Economy in "RUT" pre Jane said...

YELLEN ON VERGE OF STARTING FED CIVIL WAR..."

She was put in Office By Obama to keep rates at crisis mode low, why, because he had to hide the damage higher rates would cause on his Exploded National Debt, higher rates cost US Tax payers 100's of Billions in Higher Debt Service.

So keep rates low, no matter what.

The lower rate also makes retired people poorer. Nice Legacy .

Myballs said...

Facebook is going crazy, loading up with the pro-hillary articles.

Manipulation at its best.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Anyone can contribute to Facebook, can they not?

Motivation at its best.

Myballs said...

No stupid. Articles not personal posts. That's why i said articles.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I admit, I am stupid about how Facebook works. In all respects. I do very little with it.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Clinton Far Ahead in Electoral College Tally

A new Reuters/Ipsos 50-state poll finds Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win the presidential race.

She has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.
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Taeggan Goddard is conducting a "Landslide Watch" but only for members.
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Obama Approval Continues to Climb

Gallup finds President Obama’s approval rate is now 57%, the highest it’s been in nearly four years.
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Early Voting Way Up In Northern Virginia

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, early voting is up 63.3% in Northern Virginia as compared to four years ago, but down slightly in the rest of the state.
___
Good
_____________

Trump Vows to Sue Women Accusers
[But After the Election]

Donald Trump vowed to sue the women who have accused him of sexual misconduct in recent days, CNN reports.

Said Trump: “Every woman lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign. Total fabrication. The events never happened. Never. All of these liars will be sued after the election is over.”
_______________

Meanwhile, Gloria Allred will hold a press conference at 5 p.m. ET with the 11th person to accuse Trump of inappropriate sexual conduct.
____
Uh oh.

opie said...

Anonymous Myballs said...
No stupid. Articles not personal posts. That's why i said articles.

Idiot, I guess you fell for the non-fact that face book is a news source.....sure it is if you consider drudge a reporter. LOL