- Emerson released a poll showing a nine point lead for Roy Moore. This was up six points from their previous poll last week.
- Fox News released a poll showing Jones up by ten points. Very similar to their November poll showing Jones up by Eight.
- Gravis released a poll showing Moore up by four points, after previously showing Jones up by four points.
- Strategy Research released a poll showing Moore up by seven points. Which was a five point increase from their poll in late November.
Overall, three of the polls have moved in Moore's favor by an average of seven points, while the other moved in Jones' favor by two. But probably most interesting is the fact that we have is a nineteen point difference between the poll most favorable to Moore, and the poll most favorable to Jones. This is highly unusual for even a off year special election.
Lord knows exactly what will happen.
Lord knows exactly what will happen.
100 comments:
Monday, several women who have accused President Donald Trump of sexual harassment and assault are coming together for the first time.
They will speak in New York at a press conference hosted by "Brave New Films," which released a documentary about the accusations in November.
President trump has denied all the allegations, accusing the women of lying.
But Sunday, the president's ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said they deserve to be heard.
The last minute involvement of President Obama in the African American districts may get them to the polls. They make up 25% of eligible voters.
Yes even the New York Post reported that Jones is going to win.
I'm going to say Moore in a landslide
Go Roy Go!!!!!!
Monday, several women [sponsored by George Soros] who have accused President Donald Trump of sexual harassment
Telling the whole story.
Moore has been fully endorsed by the Republican “president” of the United States, the leader of his party, and is now fully supported by the Republican National Committee. Last week, R.N.C. Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told CNN: “The president has said we want to keep this seat Republican. The R.N.C. is the political arm of the White House, and we want to support the president’s agenda.”
The pre-Trump Republican Party is dead; The zombie Trump party now lives in its stead, devoid of principle, feasting on fear and rage, foreign to moral framing.
Long live Roy Moore......
Back to the topic at hand.
I think there is a whole lot of guessing on who is actually going to show up, that is why there is such a spread in the results.
As for me? Rely on the habitual voters to turn out for off-year and special elections.
And that usually favors the GOP.
Monday, several women [sponsored by George Soros]
So you are now claiming they are paid liars.....LOL you really are a joke....and echo's the small minds in alabama
Being sponsored (or paid if like) by George Soros is a fact.
Whether they are liers is your opinion.
But it's a reasonably held opinion in my opinion.
He can't,
Moore losses.
Putting a full term baby killer Jones in the US Senate.
Senator Franken is still fully vested in his seat.
"Being sponsored (or paid if like) by George Soros is a fact."
Not if you're living in a cave in Afghanistan.
Whether they are liers is your opinion.
And whether Soros paid them is your unsubstantiated opinion as loretta climbs out of her toadstool....LOL
I'm not seeing the ny post's report that jones wins.
Myballs said...
I'm not seeing the ny post's report that jones wins.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
like pink elephants, the alky sees news reports that just aren't there.
Lol, he saw a kerry landslide and a hillary thrown.
My bitch
Loretta said...
My bitch
My idiot shits her brains again....LOLOL
Goofy.
Liberals be proud another fine program paid dividend today.
"Chain migration" is how the latest terrorist came to this nation to hurt Americans.
Moore's declaration that the days of Slavery were the LAST time that America was great should stir up the minority voters. Should, not necessarily will.
Don't go off on me, that's literally what he said. Obviously he's not saying that Slavery made America great, nor anything else about Slavery other than the clumsy way he phrased it, but Moore definitely meant that the period in time where Alabama was neck deep in it was America's greatness. If that doesn't scare minorities in Alabama I don't know what will.
Weirdness like that make it impossible to call. For all we know, many Alabama voters LIKE what he said and proudly agree.
Lol, omg. Kiddy Table prattle.
Alamaba? Really?
Yes Alabama.
I couldn’t vote Roy Moore,” Sen. Richard Shelby (R) Alabama said Sunday on CNN. “I didn’t vote for Roy Moore, but I wrote in a distinguished Republican name.”
Saying that “Alabama deserves better,” the Republican senior senator explained he could not support the GOP candidate given the allegations of sexual misconduct against him. Moore has been accused of preying on teenage girls, including one woman who said Moore groped her when she was 14 and he was in his 30s.
Shelby’s public denouncement comes just two days before Alabamans will elect their next US senator in the special election December 12, and it could have major ripple effects in the already tight race between Moore and Democratic candidate Doug Jones. CNN Fake News but.
This is going to be another example of how women are going to vote in the next election cycle and perhaps, many more.
Bannon spoke tonight. He denounced the Republican establishment, McConnell etc in no uncertain terms. The old,white and male audience cheered him on.
Last year, that sold to both sexes. That time has passed in just a few weeks. Really Indy Alabama!
If that doesn't scare minorities in Alabama I don't know what will.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
and this is always what's at the heart of democrat politics - scaring minorities.
i do have to give your team a lot of credit, wp. being able to get away with insulting the intelligence of minorities for as long as you have is no small feat.
The left loves the chains they have on thier negroes.
Hispanics and Black Americans under Pres. Trump have lower unemployment and higher home ownership.
That is what is really scaring the shit out of them.
This is going to be another example of how women are going to vote in the next election cycle and perhaps, many more.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
sure it is, alky.
i mean, all of your other political predictions have been spot on.
not for nothing, and in case you didn't notice, but all of the pervs, sexual predators, ass-grabbers and rapists that have been relieved of their duties recently have been MEN OF THE LEFT.
so i'm not exactly sure of how you square the "this is predictive of how women are going to vote" circle.
HB, C.H. had the name of the state misspelled in the thread title.
So women rejected Hillary a pro abortion on demand cunny.
Darn alky, you are a stupid coward.
and this is always what's at the heart of democrat politics - scaring minorities. being able to get away with insulting the intelligence of minorities for as long as you have is no small feat.
No doubt Jones has played it up but it was Moore, a Republican, who came out with it. No embellishment necessary. Alabamans feel like they've come a long ways since Slavery and the Civil Rights days. Modern values, attracting corporate business and so on. Moore says those days were great! He wants to go back to them, that period of greatness. If you were of the people who suffered oppression during that time you'd have to be stupid NOT to be afraid of him.
WP spills her sippy cup at kiddy table.
Alabama has TWO rotten choices.
One believes a 12 year old should have unfettered access to abortions.
The other doesn't see anything wrong with an old man dating young girls, just like James Boswell.
The differences in the polls are almost entirely the result of different turnout models. The problem is that turnout for this race is unpredictable.
Information from the exit polls so far:
Favoring Moore: 60% decided before Moore was exposed as a child molester (favors Moore, unless a lot of folks decided against voting for Moore due to other reasons, which is unlikely). 55% said Moore's sexual deviancy was not a factor in their vote (favors Moore, again with the same unlikely caveat as before).
Favoring Jones: High turnout (Jones led in polls that had assumed high turnout and lots of votes from infrequent voters). Black turnout over 30% (black voters traditionally favor Democrats). Voters are split 48-48 on Trump approval (hard to see someone disapproving of Trump but voting for someone even worse--if it's even possible to be more of a blot on humanity than Trump is).
My best guess: Moore 53%, Jones 46%
I could see Moore going as high as 60%, but I don't really see him going any higher.
Jones has maybe a 35% chance of winning.
With that said, this race has a very Scott Brown Massachusetts feel to it. Maybe Alabama will match Massachusetts' temporary bout of sanity with its own temporary bout of decency.
More exit poll data:
Jones successfully siphoned off 27% of the anti-abortion vote.
Reverse-engineering the abortion question on the exit poll has Moore winning a plurality at 48%-46%.
Jones' voters favor him more strongly than Moore's voters by a big margin. This one actually points towards a Moore win, as Moore and the RNC are hoping party loyalty will overcome the hideousness of their candidate.
Reverse-engineering this question actually has Jones winning with a razor-thin margin something like 49%-48.6%.
A random blogger on Twitter claims that Jones leads Moore in the "shares my values" question of the exit poll, but I can't find his source. If it's true, it's promising for Jones.
Jones has a very early (and very meaningless) lead in the actual results.
Reverse-engineering race and sex data in an exit poll shows Moore winning 48%-47%.
It's still very early, but the map is already looking less like Trump's 62%-34% victory in 2016, and more like Moore's much narrower 52%-48% Alabama Supreme Court victory in 2012...the map may even be a little bit bluer.
Jones' big (and meaningless) early lead in the vote tally is rapidly dropping as more votes come in.
Jones Wins, 53
Moore loses 46 %
Big fat I told ya so.
So are the voters of Alabama not (_________)@holes?
Moore has pulled ahead of Jones. Still meaningless this early on... but it's worth remembering that it's usually the Republicans who peak early and the urban Democrat vote tallies that keep trickling in late into the night.
Keep trickling in as the dead voters vote😉😉
Minor fluctuations, but overall Moore continues to pull ahead.
Big lurch backwards for Moore, but still well ahead of Jones.
Map still looking bluer than Moore's 3.6-point victory in 2012. Looks like red precincts are coming in faster and maxing out faster than blue ones, as expected.
No freaking way, Pnc, CNN just called it, Senator Jones, Champagne Corks flying. IN your face Trump.
Moore is back to increasing his lead. Up by over 7% now.
I am watching real time feed at New York Times web. PNC, this is terrible.
Moore must lose. I have to be right.
Reverse-engineering the age question from an exit poll results in:
Moore 50.3%
Jones 49.6%
Jones creeping up, but Moore still in the lead.
Map looks a bit redder than before, but still a bit bluer than 2012.
Filed under "ya think?" is an exit poll result that shows that people with children prefer Jones.
Especially those with teenage daughters?
People with children prefer Jones.
Moore just prefers children.
In all seriousness, it's hard to tell whether that favors Moore or Jones. People in Alabama seem to be prolific across nearly all demographics. Though Democrats do tend to have fewer children than Republicans, which might mean Jones is successfully siphoning off a respectable number of Republican voters.
Some hiccups, but overall Jones is closing in on Moore now. Half the state has reported in. Seems more red counties than blue counties are already in. It's conceivable Moore could run out of votes first and Jones could do some serious gaining.
Seeing reports that Republican areas' turnout is down, while Democratic areas are at or maybe above what they would normally be.
NYT is giving Jones a 74% chance of winning, live, based on previous elections and demographics. They're predicting a 3.9% margin.
Not sure if I'm as certain as them, but Moore is definitely underperforming. Will it be enough to put Jones over the top?
Interesting. Vote totals at NYT site have more votes for Moore but fewer votes for Jones than vote totals at the Atlantic. NYT has about 4% more precincts reporting.
It's a given that in every election the polls will be wrong in some way. Half of the fun for analysts is predicting how they'll be wrong and by how much.
One factor likely at play is the "shy voter" effect.
On the one hand, Moore voters may be unwilling to admit to a pollster that they're voting for a child molester. However, Moore supporters (much like Trump supporters) tend to be pretty fired up, pretty vocal, and not in the least bit shy. At the same time, there are red counties where Jones signs outnumber Moore signs 10 to 1, and few people are expecting a landslide like that for Jones, so guilt or shame may be causing some Moore voters to keep quiet.
On the other hand, a lot of Republicans have been very reluctant to talk about their intention of voting for Jones. Are they the tip of an iceberg, or just an ice cube in an ocean of Moore voters?
NY TIMES
66 % reported vote
Moore =53 %
Jones =45 %
I haven't looked at the county results to confirm, but typically the largest population centers are the last counted, and those lean Democratic. Moore leading 7% with 45% still to count, doesn't feel like enough of a lead.
Same hand, you hate trump, need Jones to Win
The county-by-county breakdown is now almost exactly the same as 2012. Maybe a tiny bit more blue (Moore flips one county, Jones flips two?), but will it be enough to purple the Senate delegation?
It's all coming down to turnout now.
Moore leads by 56,000 votes.
Obama is in this election, so the dead dems will be voting twice.
Politico is ahowing a blue-ward shift in all counties compared to 2016, but this was expected. Moore is underperforming everywhere.
NYT now gives Jones a 69% chance of winning, and predicts a 3.2% margin as most likely. Either they can't read election returns, or they know something we don't.
"Obama is in this election, so the dead dems will be voting twice."
Actually, KKKD, those are called "black people".
Jones, is closing, for the win.
Obama big win having gone all in for Jones, $45 million contribution paid off.
See my last comment. Still holds. I suspect NYT may not be including some cache of Jones-leaning votes. Absentee ballots? Early voting?
Actually they are called, Americans.
Actually they are called, Americans.
Now less than 3% behind, Jones is creeping up.
Meanwhile, Moore is creeping on teenage girls.
Jones Wins. By just over 1%.
Nice victory.
Vote totals at the Atlantic shows a 1.1% difference. NYT is around 2.5%.
NYT actually cut Jones' chances down to 63% (with a 1.7% margin of victory) even as he closes in on Moore. Possibly unexpected Moore votes are continuing to come in, or fewer Jones votes than they expected, or both.
Atlantic now showing Jones ahead.
It could be "Midnight in Montgomery" before we know who won.
I project a Jones victory, at 55%-45%. Doesn't look right, but that's what my math says.
Post vote count the bold WP "predicts Jones victory".
Appears there are definitely more Jones votes left to be counted than Moore votes. Question is, how many more? A lot still left in Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile.
Jones closes to within 1%. Jones lead imminent?
Jones brings it home with a flipping of the Seat.
Heh. Even NYT has Jones within a half point now. The Atlantic has Jones up by that.
Tied now.
Good nite, Jones Won. COOL.
Jones ahead at NYT.
NYT basically calling it for Jones.
>95% chance of Jones win. Jones with a 2.2% likely margin, with no possible projected path projecting to a Moore victory.
AP projects a Jones victory!
Politico called it for Jones too.
Moore just can't keep up with the Joneses.
And Trump's endorsed candidate just lost for the second straight election in Alabama. First he backed Strange over Moore in the primary. Then he went all in for Moore in this race.
Experts said Jones would need 25% of the black vote. He got 30%
Huh?
Extremely close election.
Regarding my prediction, I had offered several (call it hedging my bets if you want).
My assumptions about the levels of partisanship and one-issue abortion voting in Alabama failed. Mathematically reverse-engineering exit polls was also wrong more often than not.
On the other hand, my gut instinct was right about this election being a Scott Brown Massachusetts analog. (It's likely to have many of the same repercussions too.)
Once results started coming in, comparisons with the 2012 Alabama State Supreme Court election (where Moore narrowly won) had strong predictive power. Looks like Jones flipped two counties, Moore flipped none, and that helped Jones a great deal.
Doug Jones Wins In Alabama
Doug Jones (D) has defeated Roy Moore (R) in Alabama’s special election U.S. Senate race.
The defeat is a massive blow to President Trump and costs Republicans what should have been a safe seat in a deep-red state.
Most interesting: It looks like Jones may have won by less than the write-in vote margin.
The Senate Leadership Fund issued this statement:
________________
This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running. Not only did Steve Bannon cost us a critical Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country, but he also dragged the President of the United States into his fiasco.
Will Trump’s Lows Ever Hit Rock Bottom?
A new USA Today editorial:
With his latest tweet, clearly implying that a United States senator would trade sexual favors for campaign cash, President Trump has shown he is not fit for office. Rock bottom is no impediment for a president who can always find room for a new low.
A president who would all but call Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand a whore is not fit to clean the toilets in the Barack Obama Presidential Library or to shine the shoes of George W. Bush.
Rev Jim Boswell
Normal, Illinois
And so, like Scott Brown's victory in deep blue Massachusetts, Jones' victory in Alabama is likely to have similar repercussions (plus some others owing to the nature of the current climate within the GOP).
Democrats will be energized. Finally, after several false alarms in House races, and a couple of quite frankly predictable gubernatorial victories, they've finally succeeded in flipping a Senate seat. "It can be done!" will be the message going out to donors and activists tomorrow morning.
The Democrats' cheerleaders in the media are likely to overstate the implications, ignoring that Moore was a tremendously flawed candidate, and omitting to mention that Republicans cannot be expected to nominate sex offenders in every race.
Expect the RNC and Republicans up for reelection to freak out anyway. Expect their voices to drown out the "no big deal" / "it was an outlier" crowd.
This race was EXPENSIVE for the Democrats. It will take a lot of funding to match this victory in multiple states in 2018. However, victory often begets fundraising windfalls, so the Democrats may end up with the cash they need.
Passing bills in the Senate just got harder. At least for the next year.
The Republican tax / debt expansion bill is not likely to be in jeopardy, but there will be some cold feet all of a sudden.
Expect the Republicans to try to stall on seating Jones, and the Democrats to demand his immediate seating.
What passes for the "responsible" Republicans these days will have to explain to the American people how they (at the last minute, while the polls showed Moore winning) and what passes for the leader of their party these days, backed a child molester who was a bridge too far even for redder-than-blood Alabama.
Democrats will do plenty of campaigning on just that fact. Expect the words "out of touch" to be uttered pretty frequently over the next year.
Continued...
The alt-right and the Trumpist crowd will blame everyone but themselves (who insisted on trying to force Moore down Alabama's throat in spite of better advice from smarter people). Expect still more whining about the "establishment", and expect to hear the word "sabotage" being thrown around.
McConnell will become even more hated.
Someone, somewhere, will claim voter fraud. In Alabama. Ha.
The alt-right will aim some of their fury at Ivanka Trump (who made the "special place in hell" remark and gave Jones some powerful material for campaign ads). Expect a not-unremarkable portion of this rage to be openly anti-Semitic as the alt-right shows its true colors.
Lots of rank-and-file Republicans and semi-soft-Trumpists will suddenly claim that they were against Moore in the first place. This will especially come from those who supported Moore through conspicuous silence or euphemism. It will be a full time job keeping them accountable.
Some right-wing evangelicals who voted for Moore are likely to feel some serious guilt and shame over their vote in the next few days--feelings they will not be able to simply soothe with the fact of a Republican, pro-life "values" vote in the Senate. The "Christian Right" is overdue for some serious soul-searching, and we may see some first steps in the coming weeks. The "court evangelicals", however, whose influence is 100% dependent on Trump and his base, will merely dig in.
Results generally fell right smack dab between the two polling extremes (Moore +9, Jones +10, etc.). Expect a lot of discussion about where polls went wrong, with the end result of nobody knowing any more about the art and science of polling than before.
I'm predicting the House will flip to the Democrats in 2018.
The Senate will remain under Republican control. The deadlock will be similar to the state of Congress in 2011-2012. Trump will be a lame duck for the rest of this term.
In fact, Alabama Republicans are likely to nominate someone with less baggage (perhaps Brooks or Strange again), and that person will probably defeat an incumbent Jones in 2018.
Congressional deadlock will be similar to 2011-2012. Trump will be a lame duck for the rest of this term.
This says very little about 2020, although it does say Trump would lose if he was running for reelection in 2017.
AN OPEN LETTER TO THE AMERICAN CIVIL LIBERTIES UNION:
My name is James Boswell and I am an ordained pastor in good standing with the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) in the region of Illinois and Wisconsin. Years ago I began participating in a political blog known as The Coldheartedtruth (coldheartedtruth.blogspot.com), a blog hosted by S. Scott Johnson of Minneapolis, Minnesota. I soon learned that it was a vicious blog where bad language, personal attacks, and outright racism could be found daily.
The blog host said that he discouraged those things, and whenever he did ask for greater civility with less obscenity, name calling, and personal attacks, it did get some results, but not for long. Unfortunately, he never continued making such requests, and even allowed one blogger to call our former president "a black monkey" and his wife, our First Lady, "a cheap Chicago whore," without reproaching him at all.
Because I occasionally quoted from religious articles I publish in a local newspaper, one blogger was able to discover my true identity and the church I was then serving and she put this information on the blog, repeatedly. The host should not have allowed this, but he did not intervene.
This woman hates me because I have stated that my own position regarding abortion is similar to that of the United Methodist Church’s, a position which she considers to be reprehensible. For this reason she began blatantly lying about me, stating that I had been fired by my (then) church. The truth, which I can prove by means of regional records, is that I have never in over fifty years of ministry been fired by any church which I have ever served, including the one I am serving now.
More recently one of the bloggers has begun referring to me as a pedophile, linking that slander to my real name and the name of the town where I live, thus making my address and phone number easily attainable.
As an ordained pastor, I am subject to frequent background checks which make clear that my record with regard to that accusation is totally clean: I have never, ever been accused by anyone of abusing any child.
I have asked the host of the blog to delete those slanderous, libelous references to me, slanders which several other bloggers have also made. He refuses to do so.
Now, I am not interested in making this a test case, for one simple reason. We all know that if a pastor is officially linked to pedophilia, everyone tends to assume that he/she is guilty. I myself tend to think like that whenever a pastor or priest is so charged, for there is usually a victim who is making the charge.
In my case, however, there is no victim, no victim at all, for I have never been accused by any child or parent, grandparent, or child’s relative of having committed any kind of child abuse. Again, my record is clean.
No one who reads the blog believes that accusation in the least, for if they did, they would feel obligated to report me to the authorities and to my church’s regional leadership. They have done neither because they know the charge is spurious, nothing more than a hateful epithet hurled at me.
But let us say that someone did take the charge seriously and it should somehow lead to career or employment difficulties for me. Would the blog host then be legally responsible?
Sincerely, Rev. Jim Boswell, Normal, IL
My assumptions about the levels of partisanship and one-issue abortion voting in Alabama failed. Mathematically reverse-engineering exit polls was also wrong more often than not.
The data from the initial exit polls, and the early poll reporting, was corrupted somehow. It threw off my interpolations for the margin of victory.
This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running.
It begins to probe the limits of just how bad a candidate can be before you expect him to lose. We learned that (hopefully) with Hillary, but the Republicans have been testing that limit for a couple of elections.
It's still a reach to say it illustrates that "quality matters". He almost won, I think he would have won but for the allegations and being too overt with his strange, radical opinions.
Didsomeone say pedophile?
OPEN LETTER TO THE AMERICAN CIVIL LIBERTIES UNION:
My name is James Boswell and I am an ordained pastor in good standing with the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) in the region of Illinois and Wisconsin. Years ago I began participating in a political blog known as The Coldheartedtruth (coldheartedtruth.blogspot.com), a blog hosted by S. Scott Johnson of Minneapolis, Minnesota. I soon learned that it was a vicious blog where bad language, personal attacks, and outright racism could be found daily.
The blog host said that he discouraged those things, and whenever he did ask for greater civility with less obscenity, name calling, and personal attacks, it did get some results, but not for long.
Unfortunately, he never continued making such requests, and even allowed one blogger to call our former president "a black monkey" and his wife, our First Lady, "a cheap Chicago whore," without reproaching him at all.
Because I occasionally quoted from religious articles I publish in a local newspaper, one blogger was able to discover my true identity and the church I was then serving and she put this information on the blog, repeatedly. The host should not have allowed this, but he did not intervene.
This woman hates me because I have stated that my own position regarding abortion is similar to that of the United Methodist Church’s, a position which she considers to be reprehensible. For this reason she began blatantly lying about me, stating that I had been fired by my (then) church. The truth, which I can prove by means of regional records, is that I have never in over fifty years of ministry been fired by any church which I have ever served, including the one I am serving now.
More recently one of the bloggers has begun referring to me as a pedophile, linking that slander to my real name and the name of the town where I live, thus making my address and phone number easily attainable.
As an ordained pastor, I am subject to frequent background checks which make clear that my record with regard to that accusation is totally clean: I have never, ever been accused by anyone of abusing any child.
I have asked the host of the blog to delete those slanderous, libelous references to me, slanders which several other bloggers have also made. He refuses to do so.
Now, I am not interested in making this a test case, for one simple reason. We all know that if a pastor is officially linked to pedophilia, everyone tends to assume that he/she is guilty. I myself tend to think like that whenever a pastor or priest is so charged, for there is usually a victim who is making the charge.
In my case, however, there is no victim, no victim at all, for I have never been accused by any child or parent, grandparent, or child’s relative of having committed any kind of child abuse. Again, my record is clean.
No one who reads the blog believes that accusation in the least, for if they did, they would feel obligated to report me to the authorities and to my church’s regional leadership. They have done neither because they know the charge is spurious, nothing more than a hateful epithet hurled at me.
But let us say that someone did take the charge seriously and it should somehow lead to career or employment difficulties for me. Would the blog host then be legally responsible?
Sincerely, Rev. Jim Boswell, Normal, IL
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