Nearly two thirds of registered voters showed a high level of interest in the election—the highest ever recorded in a midterm election since the Journal/NBC poll began asking the question in 2006.
Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most. In districts rated as the most competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the parties are dead even on the question of which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Democrats led by 13 percentage points among registered voters and six points among likely voters.
This mirrors a poll last week from the Washington Post and ABC News. Their poll put Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, but Republicans at +1 in the 66 battleground districts, also a big swing from their earlier polling. That suggests that Democratic enthusiasm intensified in districts where they were already safe, and that Republican enthusiasm has changed the election where the House majority will be determined.So a couple of points here:
One obvious point is that these two polls were at the overall "high end" of the spectrum for the Democrats with the plus nine and plus eleven. If you consider that there may be an overall swing of around ten points between the top line number and the battleground district number, then it would be logical to expand that to the overall collective average of all generic ballot polling. Right now, that average sits at between seven and eight percent. This would suggest that while the Democrats hold a larger lead "overall" that Republicans might be two or three percentage points up in the battleground districts.
On the flip side, the 2018 battleground districts are being identified as more Republican than would have been seen as battleground in recent elections. In other words, it makes perfect sense that the numbers would be close. That is what makes them the battleground districts. Looking at the Cook Report, the Democrats would need to win about twenty four of the sixty six battleground states to win back the House (or about a third of them). Obviously, when the Democrats were (as they had been) leading by four or five points collectively it looked like a pretty big wave brewing. But if the GOP has taken even a smallish lead in these districts, with a little bit of momentum, then it could be anyone's ball game.
_______
The only thing we can say for certain is that while there doesn't appear to be as much movement in the top line of some of these polls, there appears to be a noticeable improvement for the GOP in the actual battleground districts. This could ultimately be the difference between a blue wave and purple ripple.
35 comments:
In the same Journal/NBC poll they asked people whether Kavanaugh should have been confirmed. In the battle ground states the confirm Kavanaugh vote lead those who said he should not be confirmed by double digits.
That's a pretty good proxy on how they are going to vote in November.
I suspect that starting the day after the election we are going to hear a lot of whining about rigged gerrymander districts again.
Even though a court in Pennsylvania rigged the districts in favor of the Democrats.
In other words the same thing is happening this year as what happen in 2016. Democrats overperformimg in solid Democrat districts that skew the national polls towards the Democrats.
We're seeing the burning of US flag with swastikas . If that's what they think, why are they coming?
Because Soros is paying them to come.
They have so little, but, they have enough to deface the US Flag and burn them.
The are the New Socialist Democrat Party, they will be a great fit.
Yes, all these "poor" people who spontaneous decided to walk 2000 miles to the US border have food, clothing (with designer leftest themes), shelter, transportation and security. It's a miracle!!!
Only a fool believes this is "spontaneous".
Here is something that should alarm anyone with a half working brain....I guess that eliminates menstral and the goat fucker as a short time ago, our cultist asshole was proudly posting the Antarctic ice floes were increasing in size by billions of square miles.....so sad and sooooooo wrong....LOL
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-antarctica-melting-20181022-story.html
Finally trump and his assssholes come clean about his tax relief.....It was all a sham which did not give the people who needed relief any breaks....And is now targeting a tax break for the middle class that got shafted last year.....KD will cheer like the idiot he has been proven to be and went to the barn to fuck his goat and burn a tree for christ...
WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House as he left on a campaign trip to Texas, said on Monday his administration planned to produce a resolution within two weeks calling for a 10 percent tax cut for middle-income people.
"We're putting in a resolution sometime in the next week or week-and-a-half, two weeks," Trump said. "We're giving a middle-income tax reduction of about 10 percent. We're doing it now for middle-income people."
Finally proof how much you idiots got taken to the cleaners and got nothing from the breaks the elite got....the group that donates to the GOP!!!! Idiots...
Well Denny...
I sure got tax relief.
I guess I must be rich, huh?
I know my family got $2,300 more in our pockets this year.
They've break is coming Jan 1st, 2019 as we file our 2018 return and enjoy that big beautiful $24,000 standard deduction.
Still waiting on Obama to make good on his $2,500 saving a year because of Obimbocare .
Nobody told Dennis about summer.
CH vous et plan de merde..... I guess you think the 10% to middle class is out of your league or ability to think.....idiot... BTW......how much did you realize??? A buck 20 a week? Wow, if you smoked you couldn't even by a pack....LOLOLOLOL
I looked up your entire story Denise.
The initial tax cuts was a really good first step. The additional cuts announced in your piece are a good 2nd Step. And later a third and fourth and ....
Nobody told Dennis about summer.
Sure menstral....that sure answers the question about antarctic melting.....simple minded asshole.....BTW didn't KD ask about the lack of a hurricane season not too long ago....looks like another CAT 5 ready to impact the poor people of Mexico.....gee....isn't that ironic.....maybe the storm will deflect the caravan from getting to the US>>... how sad...still complaining about obama care where your side has not done a fucking thing other than increase premiums....
NBC raises white flag warning on blue waive.
Correction Denise. Not complaining only pointing put Obimbo promised a $2,500 savings to my family, and never delivered.
President Trump promised and actually delivered a $2,300 savings .
AND more with the $24,000 standard tax deduction.
**PSA for Denise you get an additional deduction because of your elderly.
President Trump promised and actually delivered a $2,300 savings
You lying piece of goat fucking shit....
Madam Denise, sorry you're income is such that your tax break is so tiny.
looks like another CAT 5 ready to impact the poor people of Mexico..
Yeah, nature is a bitch ain't it?
Madam Denise, sorry you're income is such that your tax break is so tiny.
Since you don't work, you have an income stream at all....how sad you are so morally bankrupt....
For young families this is more tax savings.
"For 2018, the recently passed GOP tax reform bill doubles the amount of the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to $2,000 per qualifying child.Jan 9, 2018"
So many WIN.
The bullshit of trump that the goat fucker thinks is a win.....idiot
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-obamacare-promises-236021
And he still hasn't done anything!!!!!
So many WIN.
Such a goat fucker....I guess all that winning is causing him to finally propose tax breaks to workers that got fucked in the last go around...Only you are too stupid to realize you got fucked and enjoyed the reaming....LOL And as added benefits, a couple more trillion to the debt your spawn can pay for since you can't with no income stream.....BWAAAAAAAA!!
"Obama told an audience of 2,000 in a gymnasium" lol drawing flies.
Petty.
"When you hear all this talk about ‘economic miracles’ right now, remember who started it,”
Hey Kd I see flies swarming around your wife's stinky ass.....another miracle....go burn a tree for christ....
Good to see lyin ted cruz fellating sleepy trump like KD.....both flaming assholes....politics sure does make strange bed fellows when you are desperately trying to maintain power like the good little kings they are!!!
Demographics are a problem for you.
The percentage of Americans who are registered Republicans has been decreasing. The Democrats and Independents outnumbered the likly voters Republicans.
The economy is not the best issue right now. Trump is running a campaign of fear. It got him elected President.
The Democrats are having a problem. They don't have a coherent campaign strategy.
Health care and preexisting conditions, the separation of children from their parents and the threat to "reform" Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid should be used in the local campaigns.
His tweets claimed that the refugees are criminals drug traffickers and middle eastern citizens are completely false.
Scott doesn't care if he lies. He flew out into space when Obama said the 57 states. But the pathological liar is his hero. He's Trump's puppet.
Roger
As long as the lie gets under your skin and makes you angry... then sure. Gotta totally support the lie!
So question: When I flew out into space, did I actually plant an American flag or not?
I met Neil Armstrong.
Why are you shaming an American hero?
Your head is deeply inside his asshole. That's why you can't hear the lies.
Lol, now Alky Met Noel.
Omg, the fantasy life of a alky/stoner.
Alky or obimbo??
Was just yesterday attempting to take credit for this Fantastic Economy.
His tweets claimed that the refugees are criminals drug traffickers and middle eastern citizens are completely false.
a beanervision reporter on the ground says otherwise, alky...
A Spanish language reporter who has spent weeks embedded with the migrant caravan said in a Friday report that people from Bangladesh had joined the mass of people trying to cross from Guatemala into Mexico.
Univision correspondent Francisco Santa Anna reported from the bridge separating Guatemala and Mexico. The bridge has been packed with thousands of migrants demanding access to Mexico, with the ultimate goal of crossing the border of the United States illegally. The caravan has now swelled to many thousands.
The Bangladeshis, he said, were detained in an immigration facility, though it’s not clear what happened to them after their detention.
“The borders in Central American are not as strong as the U.S., which makes it possible for people from Panama and Ecuador to cross easily,” Santa Anna said on Univision. “They cross from Costa Rica, then later go through Guatemala and eventually make it into our country.”
“Yesterday when we were traveling through Guatemala, we noticed people from El Salvador and even people from Bangladesh,” he continued. “Can you imagine what they had to do to get here? They infiltrated themselves in this caravan and tried to cross with the crowd. That would have benefited them greatly.”
Bangladesh has one of the largest populations of Muslims in the world. Its 141 million Muslims is more than the combined populations of Iran, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, Georgetown University professor C. Christine Fair noted in an essay in Lawfare.
The country is “increasingly the site of Islamist violence,” Fair wrote.
https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/22/univision-caravan-bangladesh/
So question: When I flew out into space, did I actually plant an American flag or not?
sheila jackson lee says you planted the flag on mars.
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