- Florida (66%)
- Indiana (77%)
- Montana (86%)
- Missouri (62%)
Then they would need to win both of the GOP vulnerable seats:
- Nevada (55%)
- Arizona (64%)
The chance of the Democrats sweeping those first four seats is approximately 27%, while the chances of them winning both of remaining two seats is approximately 35%. The mathematical/statistical chances of them winning all six of these races is under 10%.
Oh, and that still leaves them one seat short, which means that they would need to hold North Dakota (31%) or pick up Tennessee (26%) or Texas (22%), Mississippi (19%), Nebraska (3%), Mississippi (2%), Utah (0.1%), or Wyoming (0.1%).
Yes there are two Mississippi races this year. Interestingly, Silver gives the Democrat a 19% chance of winning one of them, in spite of the Democrat in that race not reaching 35% in a single poll. Go figure.
Either way, the odds of picking up one of those remaining seats is actually statistically higher than one might think, but still lowers the overall statistical odds down to under 7%. When you add back the odds that the Democrats could actually lose one of their own "safer seats" their overall percentage falls even further (down around 5%). So on paper (purely mathematically speaking), it would appear closer to being a one in twenty shot, than one in five.
But I guess I must be missing something "statistical" that Mr Silver is throwing into the mix.
51 comments:
WOW.... glad to see my guesstimate of a 10% chance of D senate doubled by Nate and you,.....makes me a tad more optimistic....thanx...If all those kids who registered vote....me thinks you will have a real long day....LOL
Dow Futures
24,968.00
-326.00(-1.29%)
Today's futures.....think this will help R's????
President Donald Trump’s deputies have announced they will soon cancel the work permits which were awarded to 100,000 foreign visitors under a controversial outsourcing program created by President Barack Obama."
"The Democrats have a problem, a serious problem, but one that they have yet to acknowledge fully – or frankly, at all.
What’s the problem?
Here it is: Democrats have moved so far to the left that Republican attacks on them for being extremist and too far in the clutches of their tired, out-of-touch leadership have been working. And working well, according to the recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
The Republican campaign now is simple: just focus on how far left the Democrats are, and how beholden its candidates – particularly Congressional candidates – are to the unpopular Democratic leadership in both the House and the Senate."
If Silver gets it as wrong as I think he's going to get it, I don't see how anyone can ever take him seriously again.
President Donald Trump’s deputies
And KD cums in trumps mouth....
http://stopthebull.com/doug-schoen-democrats-we-have-a-problem/
The source of KD's plagiarism.....why does he always forget to give credit for others thoughts????? asshole
Blogger Commonsense said...
If Silver gets it as wrong as I think he's going to get it, I don't see how anyone can ever take him seriously again.
always remember that when a liberal fails he fails upward and gets promoted. the wagons are always circled around the failed liberal and the individual is usually honored to cover for a colossal fuck-up. and nate knows this.
see: rather, dan
Beta O'Rourke got almost 1000 people at his Houston rally last night.
Donald Trump? 20+ thousand include the people who were tailgating outside because they couldn't get in.
But the media says there is beta-mania.
Memo to Francis O'Rourke: Taking some Spanish lesson on Rosette Stone and using the nickname Beta doesn't make you Hispanic.
Common
Silver has been embarrassingly wrong in the past, and is still a darling of the media. As long as he keeps projecting that the Democrats will do better than they do, they media will still love him.
If he were to start projecting Republican gains and Trump to win the election, he is probably never invited to another party or another interview again!
He knows which side his bread is buttered on.
Spanish lesson on Rosette Stone and using the nickname Beta doesn't make you Hispanic.
And it certainly does not make you smart either, cramps...20K people trying to get a slurp from donald again shows how stupid people can be, especially trump fellators like yourself....LOL
Silver has been embarrassingly wrong in the past,
And he gets paid handsomely while you wallow in the depths of CH blog and get nothing......you should be so bad....asshole.
As long as he keeps projecting that the Democrats will do better than they do, they media will still love him.
exactly right.
silver exists solely to make liberals feel good about themselves and their election prospects.
conservatives think. liberals feel. silver's gig is good for as long as he wants it.
Silver has been embarrassingly wrong in the past, and is still a darling of the media. As long as he keeps projecting that the Democrats will do better than they do, they media will still love him.
He's become the Paul Krugman of political prognosticators.
team beano shenanigans...
DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM) – Official voter registration applications have been showing up in the mailboxes of thousands of Texans.
The problem is some applications were sent to people who have been dead for decades.
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/10/22/voter-registration-application-dallas-woman-died/
Oh oh.
"The Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Georgia, Stacey Abrams, helped light a state flag on fire on the steps of the state's Capitol in June 1992, as part of a protest".
"The Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Georgia, Stacey Abrams, helped light a state flag on fire on the steps of the state's Capitol in June 1992, as part of a protest".
to democrats, that's a feature not a bug.
Dems winning.
"Two men apparently attacked the Bakersfield office of House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Monday night, throwing a massive rock through one of its windows and burglarizing office equipment inside."
Michael AvenattiVerified account @MichaelAvenatti
There is too much at stake in the midterms for the Dems to allow the Repubs to use the caravan, which is so obviously a set-up, as a wedge issue. It is time for the Dems to step up and be strong on border security. We cannot once again be painted as weak and then lose.
How many arrows can the Democrats shoot in one foot ?
David Limbaugh @DavidLimbaugh
My honest take: Trump believes in a strong, exceptional America. He’s not a political scientist. He doesn’t speak in code. When he says, “I’m a nationalist,” he’s not winking at Neo-Nazis. He’s saying “I’m a patriot & you PC people can’t make me quit using the word “nationalist.”
300Spartans @scottho03862553
Reasonable people know this. But the left thinks it's still being clever by calling Trump a white supremacist, Nazi, Hitler. People who believe that have believed it from the beginning. People who don't never will.
Those "clever" people will never understand how TRUMP is WINNING. Must frustrate the hell out of them, and that's a good thing.
The Republican Mob
An explosive device was found at the Westchester County, New York, home of billionaire philanthropist George Soros on Monday afternoon.
In a statement to NPR, the Bedford Police Department said an employee of the house found a suspicious package in the mailbox. They opened it, revealing what "appeared to be an explosive device." The employee placed the package in a nearby wooded area and alerted authorities.
State and federal authorities responded to the scene in Katonah, a hamlet in the town of Bedford. A bomb squad was able to safely detonate the device.
this describes the alky and his ilk to a fucking "T.":
For now, though, the left’s only issue is “We hate Trump.” This is an instructive hatred, because what the left hates about Donald Trump is precisely what it hates about America. The implications are important, and painful.
https://outline.com/TFnHMu
read the whole thing.
He's become the Paul Krugman of political prognosticators.
Gee, that was soon predictable....Another example of your jealousy of others having advanced degrees, winners of major prizes while you wallow in your shallow stupor of cultist denials....and have nothing to show other than some words on a losers blog....how sweet that is....On a side note....up here in the wilds of Ga....there were lots of Abrams posters on Sunday.....and by some miracle...they have all gone away over night....wonder if pauline was around stealing signs....LOL
In a statement to NPR, the Bedford Police Department said an employee of the house found a suspicious package in the mailbox. They opened it, revealing what "appeared to be an explosive device." The employee placed the package in a nearby wooded area and alerted authorities.
only a complete imbecile is not calling bullshit on this story.
"hey look! gee, this could be a bomb. let's open it and look inside. yep, looks like a bomb to me. i know! i'll put it in the woods so in case it blows the fuck up no one will get hurt. yeah... that's the ticket."
Bedford Police: "quick! call NPR so we can make a statement! because all of the elitists in Katonah, Bedford, and Pound Ridge listen to NPR and only NPR."
only a complete imbecile is not calling bullshit on this story.
Like trump covering for the saudi's?????
Blogger Roger Amick said...
The Republican Mob
An explosive device was found at the Westchester County, New York, home of billionaire philanthropist George Soros on Monday afternoon.
btw alky, i think it's interesting to see that you yourself are sympathetic to a known nazi sympathizer.
Another example of trump manipulating stupid people to act like he does...
Man arrested for allegedly groping woman on Southwest flight claims Trump 'says it's ok to grab women'
Yahoo Lifestyle Kristine Solomon,Yahoo Lifestyle 2 hours 25 minutes ago
A Florida man aboard a Southwest Airlines flight was detained on Sunday for allegedly groping a female passenger. (Photo: Getty Images)
A Tampa man has been accused of sexually assaulting a woman on a Southwest Airlines flight from Houston to Albuquerque on Sunday. After being questioned by law enforcement, Bruce Michael Alexander, 49, told authorities that “the President of the United States says it’s ok to grab women by their private parts,” according to a criminal complaint.
The woman, identified as C.W. in the complaint, said she “felt a hand from behind her grab the right-side of her right breαst” while in a window seat in front of Alexander. The complaint details the incident, which began when C.W. was sleeping on the flight. When she woke up to Alexander’s hand “at and around her ‘bra line,’” she dismissed it as an accident, according to the complaint.
Then half an hour later, she said, she felt a hand grab and squeeze her upper arm, then return to her right side, groping her chest area. The woman said she looked down to find a hand that was “hairy,” with “thick fingers” and “dirty fingernails.”
How many arrows can the Democrats shoot in one foot ?
at some point one has to wonder when avenatti has crossed over from being just a garden variety asshat to a legitimate threat to himself and others.
that's some 2020 presidential hopeful the democrats have there.
How many arrows can the Democrats shoot in one foot ?
Another question....how many CHer's can stick their dicks up trumps ass at once?????
Gee, that was soon predictable....Another example of your jealousy of others having advanced degrees, winners of major prizes while you wallow in your shallow stupor of cultist denials.
Feeling a little inferior today Dennis? Only 6 hours until the Golden Corral is open.
Denny...
What's with all of your homosexual fantasy comments here?
Are you really that obsessed with Rat's dick or Trump's ass?
Jeepers! Call a sex therapist before it's too late.
A bomb squad was able to safely detonate the device.
Oct. 22, 2018
The explosive device found in a mailbox at the home of George Soros, the billionaire philanthropist, on Monday afternoon was relatively small, a senior law enforcement official said on Tuesday.
The device was “proactively denotated” by bomb squad technicians from the Westchester County Police Department.
The bomber’s motive remained unclear. Mr. Soros is a favorite target of right-wing groups. He was not home at the time.
The investigation has been taken over by the New York offices of the F.B.I. and the federal Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms, said the senior law enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is open.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/nyregion/george-soros-explosive-device.html
Fuck you rrb. You're a worthless racist asshole and a liar and typical Trump supporter.
I find the story about Soros interesting.
If you read the accounts, it's two paragraphs about the situation, and then the rest of the story is all about how conservatives hate Soros, what Trump has said about Soros, what Trump said about the caravan, what Trump did in a box, what Trump did with a fox, what trump did when he had the chicken pox.
Apparently nobody seems interested as to how someone could have snuck in to what is obviously a highly guarded and secure gated community for the extreme rich with an explosive device, sneak right up to the equally well protected Soros residence, and then just as mysteriously, sneak away undetected.
I would think that might be the interesting part of the story (if in fact anyone could confirm that it wasn't actually a Fed Ex package from Rover.com that was supposedly diffused by authorities).
Personally, what I think happened is that Blink created a portal, and Eclipse and her quickly dropped the device, and then gifted their way back to the resistance headquarters!
What's with all of your homosexual fantasy comments here?
What makes you an expert on fantasy comments, asshole....You not getting laid anymore???? Since nothing trump says annoys you.....I'm just posting my version of trump tweets....horseface!!! You don't like??? Good, its working....LOL
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Fuck you rrb. You're a worthless racist asshole and a liar and typical Trump supporter.
so a known nazi sympathizer is worth your sympathy but not me???
geez, you really know how to hurt a guy, rog.
Apparently nobody seems interested as to how someone could have snuck in to what is obviously a highly guarded and secure gated community for the extreme rich with an explosive device, sneak right up to the equally well protected Soros residence, and then just as mysteriously, sneak away undetected.
exactly. i have family in that area and i can tell you first hand that the folks down there take their security extremely seriously. no one just wandered up to nazi georgie's mailbox and dropped a bomb inside.
it's much more likely that nazi georgie had it put there. and then removed from there. and then placed in the woods. just like that. all without it blowing up.
it has also been reported by anonymous sources close to the soros organization that the word ACME was printed on the box. and coyote footprints were spotted around the mailbox.
btw...
two years ago today nate silver had hillary at an 86% probability to win the white house.
two years to the day, ol' nate has the dems at 86% to win the house.
uncanny, no?
Joe Biden insults ever Trump Voter.
So count Plugs in for running in 2020.
Intresting item from Ed Morrissey. He says the Minnesota senate seat may be in play.
The would be indeed a bad night for the Democrats if they lose that seat.
In a probably futile effort to inject SOME measure of reality into this blog:
Your statistical mistake is in your arbitrary partitioning of the races, which leaves out the unlikely but possible winning combinations.
SIGMA (FOR EACH combination of wins resulting in D majority, [PRODUCT of probability of D win in each contest in the combination])
WP - there are a very limited amount of GOP held seats.
When you consider that Silver has Utah (99.9), Wyoming (99.9), Mississippi (99.6) and Nebraska (96.7) - it makes those four nearly statistically irrelevant...
You are looking at the other Mississippi race (87.3), (Texas 79.1), and Tennessee (75.8%)
The odds are still over 50% that the GOP would hold all seven of those races...
They are also over 70% to pick up North Dakota (although without a single poll taken in the last 6 months showing Heidkamp ahead, and the last three showing her down double digits) I would offer that 30% is awfully generous here.
That literally leaves Nevada and Arizona as your legitimate pick up opportunities. With Silver suggesting 62% in Arizona and 40% in Nevada.
You can do the math there... Democrats need to win at least three of those seats.
Winning four of those seats is less than 4%
Winning three?
50% * 30% * 62%
50% * 30% * 40%
50% * 62% * 40%
30% * 62% * 40%
And then having to hold everywhere else? MS, MT, IN, FL, WV, MN, NJ,. OH, etc... which the statistical off of winning winning all of them is somewhere around 13%.
I noticed you didn't provide the calculations for how you get to one in five?
result = 20.2% for D to win exactly 3 of the 7. Assuming that what you listed are the chances of a D win in each election (I didn't check)
Sub calcProb()
Dim P(7) As Single
P(1) = 0.967
P(2) = 0.873
P(3) = 0.791
P(4) = 0.758
P(5) = 0.7
P(6) = 0.62
P(7) = 0.4
Dim WinProb3 As Single
Dim WinProb4 As Single
Dim Dw As Single
Dim Dl As Single
Dim count As Integer
For i = 1 To 5
For j = i + 1 To 6
For k = j + 1 To 7
'prob winning exactly these three:
Dw = (1 - P(i)) * (1 - P(j)) * (1 - P(k))
'prob losing all the rest
Dl = 1
For o = 1 To 7
If (o <> i And o <> j And o <> k) Then
Dl = Dl * P(o)
End If
Next o
WinProb3 = WinProb3 + Dw * Dl
Next k
Next j
Next i
Debug.Print WinProb3
End Sub
WP...
Let's forget this is an election.
Let's just look at a statistical formula for a "loss"
Set A (9 chances for a loss)
3 of them offer almost zero statistical change of a loss 0.01
1 of them offers about a 3% chance for a loss
1 of them offers about a 10% chance of a loss
1 of them offers about a 20% chance for a loss
1 of them offers about a 25% chance for a loss
1 of them offers about a 40% chance of a loss
1 of them offers about a 60% chance of a loss
Set B (26 chances for a loss)
11 of of them offer almost zero chance of loss 0.1
7 of them offer between a 1-3% chance of losing
3 of them offers about a 10% chance of losing
1 of them offers about a 15% chance
1 of them offers about a 30% chance of loss
2 of them offers about a 40% chance of a loss
1 of them offers about a 70% chance for a loss
At a glance, how often would you suspect that set A would randomly statistically come up with not only more losses than set B, but actually come up with two more losses than set B?
run the numbers, WP.
I gave you the computation for the probabilistic calculation. The code which you can check. You can check the validity of the math involved, if you are facile enough with it.
I knew this was probably futile, because facts and mathematical rigor are not relevant to Trumpers - I'm not wasting any more time on this.
Sure WP...
You can't even talk statistics without bringing up Trump.
I didn't bring up Trump. I said "Trumpers" -e.g, you - because of your apparent affliction. The idea that you can "talk away" facts and even straightforward calculations.
Nor am I "talking statistics" - I showed you the solution. I should have known better, since now you want to "talk" away with that nonsense with "Set A" and "Set B" and so on.
It's real simple WP...
If your formula proved what you suggested, then you wouldn't have just provided the formula. You would have actually used the formula, with the numbers, to prove yourself right.
That is how "proof" works.
You didn't. Because you couldn't.
I DID provide the numbers, with the actual formula. I provided the actual code that you can verify, for chrissakes. You're supposed to be a software engineer, a numbers guy. If you can't get this, then you're completely lost in denial.
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