Nate Silver correct - Nevada, North Dakota, *Montana (*assuming a Tester win)
Nate Silver incorrect - Florida (70%), Indiana (72%), Missouri (57%), *Arizona (61%)
(*assuming a McSally win)
Big Governor Races - Nev, Iowa, Kansas, S. Dakota, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Wisc
Nate Silver correct - Nevada, Kansas, South Dakota, Georgia, Wisconsin
Nate Silver incorrect - Iowa (57%), Florida (77%), Ohio (59%)
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| One size fits all - Democrats will win! |
So overall, if you consider the fifteen most competitive state-wide races in this election, Silver got eight correct, and seven incorrect. A batting average of about .533, which would be great in baseball, but is an absolute disaster for a projection expert. Moreover, Silver had projected the winner to be the Democrat in each and every case he missed. To rub salt in the wound, these were not projected to be super close races, rather he provided an average winning percentage of approximately 65% for these seven Democrats.
The odds of Silver "randomly" missing seven races, all in the same direction is less than one percent. The odds against missing seven races where you provided a 65% chance of victory, is less than one tenth of one percent (approximately one in fifteen hundred).
This is nothing new. Nate Silver has "never" missed a statewide race where he projected a Republican to win. Not once, dating back to the beginning of time. Every single miss has been a miss to the left, projecting a Democrat to win, when a Republican actually did.
I might offer the suggestion that he might want to take a second look at his methodology.
25 comments:
I might offer the suggestion that he might want to take a second look at his methodology.
he won't need to until and unless he's ever actually held to account for his failures.
he caters to a party that hasn't yet accepted the results of the 2016 election, for chrissakes. as long as the left continues to cling to their denial and wishful thinking, nate keeps cashing in.
a great gig if you can get it. imagine getting a raise every time you fuck up.
that's nate silver.
You know it was a disappointing night for dems because the nets are all spending time this morning propping up beto.
And GOP gaining seats in the senate is huge. Now Collins and murkowski can vote their consciences and McConnell will still have enough votes to pass.
How did the candidates Obumble campaigned for do?
Gillum went down as did fat Stacey
olinsky got his clock cleaned in all the close races he campaigned for. the races where he showed up and the dem won were already a given.
net result - he's STILL the shit-fingered midas.
Down 1.4 % , with 100% reported counties.
Alky/Obimbo/Oprah Abrams fails to conced the race.
Did russia steal the house for the Dems?
😂
Little Fake Rapper.
The Atlantic: “If the (GA) governor’s race had taken place in another country, the State Department would have questioned its legitimacy” www.theatlantic.com/…
3 hours ago
Eric Geller
Twitter › ericgeller
"[I]f the Georgia race had taken place in another country—say, the Republic of Georgia—U.S. media and the U.S. State Department would not have hesitated to question its legitimacy..." Kemp purged/challenged ~700k registrations. Current margin is ~75k. www.theatlantic.com/…
29 minutes ago
Jeff Greenfield
Twitter › greenfield64
Does it make sense to describe FL and GA in sweeping terms when Nelson and Gillum both came within a point or less of victory, and where GA still may go to a recount? Not disputing that "a win is a win", but the convincing GOP win in OH governor's race looks more consequential.
27 minutes ago
Courtney Norris
Twitter › courtneyknorris
Media posted by Courtney Norris
Here's the full statement from the legal team representing five Georgia voters seeking temporary restraining order barring Republican @BrianKempGA from further involvement, including counting votes, in "too close to call race" for governor against Democrat @staceyabrams
2 minutes ago
11Alive News
Twitter › 11AliveNews
Media posted by 11Alive News
A recap of Georgia's governor's race on.11alive.com/2QmC1…
3 minutes ago
WSYX ABC 6
Twitter › wsyx6
Media posted by WSYX ABC 6
Georgia's governor's race may not be over yet, with Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp awaiting final accounting of absentee and provisional ballots #midterms2018 bit.ly/2D3YBDT
6 minutes ago
UFCW
Twitter › UFCW
Stacey Abrams' campaign has said it expects a runoff in the Georgia governor's race. #Midterms2018 ow.ly/1j8J30mx69N .@LEBassett @HuffPostPol
6 minutes ago
Cameron McWhirter
Twitter › cammcwhirter
#Georgia and #Wisconsin Candidates Refuse to Concede #Governor Races www.wsj.com/articles… via @WSJ
6 minutes ago
Twitter
Since I have lived in Kansas the Govenors have been split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
Personally I think that in this area where the voting patterns are different than before it's difficult to hit 700.
I am pleased that Tester is ahead and given the last few districts are Democratic.
trump just destroyed jim acosta.
heh.
Your President is going nuts at the press conference.
The press is the enemy of the people.
april ryan just went looking for trouble. and she found it. feckless cunt.
heh.
he went nuts on jim acosta, alky. and acosta deserved every bit of it plus some.
acosta is such a piece of shit he had to start pushing around a female staffer to grab the microphone.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1060223880260997120
she should've kicked him in the vagina and choked him out.
One undeniable conclusion is that senate dems hurt themselves badly in the kavanaugh confirmation. If they're smart, they'll kick schumer aside for another minority leader.
Sessions is gone
Sessions is gone
excellent. trump needs to appoint someone who will rip rosenstein's throat out.
figuratively speaking of course.
Roger Amick said...
Your President is going nuts at the press conference.
i think he did a splendid job fo smacking down that fat blob of MSDNC race bait - alcindor.
Jim Acosta, the CNN reporter has been “suspended” from the White House “until further notice"
The President punishes the child.
So how did Nate Silver do in the big races?
Probably a whole lot better than you and the best part, he got paid and you didn't!!!
Democratic Gerrymander Struck Down by Maryland Federal Court
A Maryland federal court ordered the state to redraw its congressional district map, the latest in a string of closely watched rulings on how boundaries are shaped for political advantage.
A three-judge panel on Wednesday decided in favor of challengers who complained that the state’s sixth-district lines were moved in 2011 to change the area from Republican to Democratic. The panel called the gerrymander unconstitutional and ordered the state to redraw its map for use in the 2020 congressional elections.
Congressional redistricting has been a flashpoint across the country. Republicans in particular have wielded the technique expertly to get a lock on many districts. Courts in Pennsylvania and North Carolina earlier this year rejected maps that tilted outcomes in favor of the GOP. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court substantially sided with Texas Republicans in a long-running clash over that state’s congressional and state election boundaries.
In the Maryland case, seven Republican residents of the state’s sixth district sued to invalidate the map in 2013, contending it was part of a plan to change the already dominant 6-2 congressional makeup Democrats in the state enjoyed to 7-1. To do so, officials shifted 66,000 Republicans out of the district and added about 24,000 Democrats, a swing of about 90,000 voters, the panel said.
That brought about “the single greatest alteration of voter makeup in any district in the nation following the 2010 census,” violating the plaintiffs’ First Amendment rights of representation and association, the court ruled
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-07/maryland-federal-court-strikes-down-democratic-gerrymander?srnd=politics-vp
Democrats, the worst gerymanderers in the nation.
Deluxe model: 488 of 506 correct (96.4%)
Classic: 484 of 506 correct (95.7%)
Lite: 481 of 506 correct (95.0%)
No overall bias in the calculations: In the Deluxe model, D's won 96.1% of the races in which they were favored, and R's won 96.7%.
Check your facts.
Check your facts.
That would be a first for the assholes of this blog, especially our esteemed host and david duke accolade and rat our walking rectum.....
Democrats, the worst gerrymanderers in the nation.
Right....I guess R's only losing 28 seats with a 7% drubbing says volumes for the skill of the right....now with 7 gov flips an 6 legislature flips.....maybe the pendulum will swing back.....idiot
The President punishes the child.
And the D's will soon punish you and trump.....being bitch slapped by the voters is how it is supposed to work...
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